Joel Elconin – The Odds Of A 75 BPS Hike, Continued Market Weakness, Oil Breaks Out Again and Where’s The Bottom For Bitcoin?
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of the PreMarket Prep website joins us to discuss the key factors continuing to push markets lower. We start with Fed expectations which now have a 75 basis point hike back on the table. We then focus on the markets and possible catalysts, all of which seem to be negative. Next up we look at the tech sector with Oracle and Amazon moving in different directions for different reasons. Finally it’s oil and bitcoin, two markets also moving in different directions.
Have you made “Partner” yet at JP Morgan or are you still on track to do so?
GET YOUR SCUBA GEAR OUT, Joe’s Back! We need guys like you around here Joe! LOL! DT
Silver could soon be on its way to some obvious lower support levels if we don’t get a reversal this week.
GDX is very close to filling a small daily and weekly gap from January 31st but like silver, it will also probably head significantly lower if there’s no reversal this week.
Lions and friends…
The 10yr is now 3.48% with no sign of slowing…
THIS IS NOT GOOD.
Clearly there is now instability in the debt market and if this proceeds, stocks will CRATER.
a note from Greg M………….
I think it’s great. Bonds need a drastic repricing.
I would agree…… Bonds do need a repricing…….. should have never gotten to this point……
Greg’s follow up
Lions and friends…
My bet here is on commodities, PERIOD.
I am NOT advising anyone to follow me in on this- but I am putting it all on the line. Either I win big, or go down in flames.
Burn baby burn!
Snap shares are down 74% in 2022 — here’s why
Daniel Howley·Technology Editor -Mon, June 13
“Snap (SNAP) is getting hammered. Shares of the social media/camera company, which were trading as high as $83.11 in September 2021, have since plunged amid rising inflation, the war in Ukraine, and Apple’s privacy changes.”
“Snap suggested the pain could continue, warning in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing last month that it will likely fall short of its Q2 guidance when it reports its current quarter earnings.”
It’s likely we are going to see more carnage in tech and social media stocks when we see the Q2 Earnings Reports come in during late July through August, and this Snap story is good analog for so many of yesterdays heroes that were leading the charge into the speculative froth last year.
Cathie Wood’s ARKK tests pandemic low as market sell-off batters fund
Alexandra Semenova · Mon, June 13, 2022
“A meltdown across equity and cryptocurrency markets has dragged the flagship ETF for Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest closer to pandemic-era lows.”
“The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 8.8% Monday to $36.58 per share, placing the investment vehicle within striking distance of its March 2020 pandemic closing low of $34.69. Earlier in the session, shares of ARKK traded hands as low as $36.33. Monday’s decline follows a 7% drop on Friday, as markets declined sharply following May’s inflation data.”
It would be healthy for the gold market to move down a little more this week and then plunge next week to 1700 if they raise rates 75 basis points—-let’s get this thing over for most of the PM stocks—it would create a great buying opportunity for gold and some of these stocks. The silver chart for those “cup and handle aficionados may be seeing the beginning of a nice rounded lower pricing for the base of the handle. “hope springs eternal”.
Hi Doc. I’m fine with further downside in Gold to get the plunge over with, but still would prefer to see the higher lows at $1780 and $1721 hold rather than for those to get pierced to the downside. I’d asked you about those levels in our last interview, but do you hold out any odds that those levels could hold as support, without having to go all the way down to $1700?
The final line in the sand would be that $1673-$1675 support that was tested 3 times last year (double bottom in March, and then the flash crash retest in August). If for any reason things got down there and broke through that, it would be too much chart damage, and then Gold would have officially made a significant lower low if that level breaks.
Doc – Do you have a pricing level you are watching for where support would come in?
(I think you may have mentioned a moving average or the level at the bollinger bands you were watching, which I realize is a moving target… but any rough area of pricing support you are watching to hold in gold?)
As I’ve repeated ad infinitum, it is unusual to have pricing of an asset on the monthly chart move this long laterally without at least challenging the lower BB—-with more carnage coming in the conventional markets I believe the possibility is high that gold challenges the 1700 level or just lower. I hope it happens in the near future since we could then expect a healthy rally after that.
Thanks Doc. So the lower BB on the monthly is what you’ll be watching for gold to hit down around $1700 or possibly right below it, meaning those other two support levels and higher lows at $1780 and $1721 will get breached then in that scenario.
Silver’s cup …….. is well OVER DUE………… been a LONG GRIND……..
Eloro Resources keeps coming up with drilling results that show a huge deposit. The cream always rises to the top. DT
Geeze, starting to look like gold & silver the last man standing. Don’t matter if ur black or white. Minute Man Rules: TRUMP TO FRONT! Happy bday
Swing Analysis: https://tinyurl.com/mt2berap
PMs may have bottomed yesterday.
(May 12th break/bounce.)
Note GDX volumes.
Still lacking Newmont confirmation.
I’m surprised no one has brought up Novo latest new release, see: https://novoresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Revised-Novo-News-Release-Nullagine-Ops-Update-FINAL-CLN.pdf.
Personally I am split on its meaning. On one hand it is good they have given up on the sorter but on the other it means that their cash flow stops and that they are no longer a “producing company”. I also wonder after they pay off the debt to Sprott how much will be left to keep Novo alive for the next couple of years while they search for something to produce.
And whooooosh!!!! All gains gone, just like that.
You are now underwater on your positions and it will only get worse from here. You have no other option but to sell now and take a small loss or wait until later and take a big loss.
If you’d listened to me months ago you would have dodged this dump, but I’m guessing that most of you didn’t and now you’re working on an ulcer. Do yourself a favor and SELL NOW!!! DO IT!!!! SELL!!!
The PM sector a play for gullible suckers and dopes. It’s only a source of liquidity for the company and the management team’s lavish lifestyles. They LAUGH at you fools as they dine on the finest foods, drink top shell liquor and indulge in other luxuries of life you’ll never have because you invest in these money pits.