Brien Lundin – Copper Continues To Breakdown, Gold and Silver Stocks Also Selling Off, What Will Stop The Pain?
Brien Lundin, Editor of The Gold Newsletter and Organizer of The New Orleans Investment Conference joins me to discuss the selloff in copper and precious metals stocks today. Copper is continuing to breakdown, now well below $4, while gold and silver stocks are very close to breaking to 2 year lows. Brien has some optimistic comments on inflation slowing which would help the miners and could lead to a more solid bottom.
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It should bounce from the rising monthly lower Bollinger band which is currently at 3.47…
The earliest spot to consider the possibility of a lasting low is probably around 3.30 but I doubt that the correction will end there…
I think it will go below 3.00…
Whatever copper does, I bet it will underperform silver for the next 18 months or more.
My simple thought on copper is that it is telling us that a recession is definite. Housing construction is headed back down when the million unfinished units get finished. As far a gold goes, no one that I’ve noticed has said anything about the seasonality. Gold generally bottoms in late June. IMO it’s as simple as that. FWIW
I agree that a recession is assured and that gold will turn up soon.
hello, Matthew. will silver react to inflation? thank you.
Yes it will.
There’s probably a little more downside but the big picture is better than fine.
When it gets above 25 again, it will move quickly, and quite possibly much sooner.
/SI looks to have tested and rejected w volume that S.L. of 5/12…glta
IPT finished the day flat after bouncing 7.2% off its low.
i do not own ipt. have aumn. thank you. will wait.
Compared to others, quite a feat.
Looks like an orchestrated effort to set up a very large QE.
We’re far from the final carnage of the conventional markets—-how many times have people listened to the siren calls of those that have consistently been incorrect as regards the directions of the various markets. If you look at the right stocks that obviously show there is more downside to them (and they’re solid companies) it’s a slam dunk that a near term bottom is not yet here. When we get to the bottom of a lot of these PM stocks we’ll in all likelihood muddle around for weeks and gradually move up. The odds of a large V shaped recovery is low.
Argonaut with C$190 million financing at C$0,45
43.6% discount and 150% dilution if fully exercised
Another reminder of why I am buying royalties.
It’s strange how so many retail investors seem to think that companies like ArgoNot and AXU are somehow safer than debt-free explorers. I’ll take volatility risk over operational, developmental and bankruptcy risk any day.
In the past I was drawn to these two but after seeing that financing package, wouldn’t go near AR. AXU leave it until next year.
KTN seems to be holding in there pretty good.
As Brien daid above (I think) is there is not much difference between the GDX and the GDXJ as they are all pretty much producers. That gives many investors and managed money a warmer feeling. As a result, Explorers are at more risk of manipulative activity because of less impact on the “managed money” aspect. Mostly my opinion but those with the largest fraudulent debt, are hoping they can put all investors money at risk by eliminating individual investing and control over personal funds. Index funds nay be less at risk because of the “managed” control.
I still have to think that the incessant daily attack on the paper metals prices is possibly due to the knowledge of a significant QE event in the near term and attempting to “corner” commodity investments in the hands of the more affluent.
Is it possible silver has bottomed even if the stocks have not?
Yes, it’s absolutely possible and I’m glad you brought it up because we saw silver bottom in December 2015 over a month before SILJ bottomed in January 2016 before the sector blasted off and delivered one of its best moves ever. Today is very similar. Silver’s low so far happened in early May while SILJ made a new low this week (yesterday) over a month later.
After 4 straight days down, I wanted a 5th day (today) to be down hard to make a low with authority and get silver to its 200 week MA and the HUI to a low beneath its September low. This could easily still be a major low but I’m less certain of that until we get more evidence. It is possible that it’s just another short term low and that the major one is still weeks away but we should get a good idea which one it is either early next week or as soon as the next quarter begins next Friday.
Anybody here follow Fred Hickey? “Fred Hickey: Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (BPGDM) fell to 20.7% today. I doubt this miner selling will last beyond another week (possible more quarter-end dumping). I expect to be buying every day until the dumping ends. I’ve got my basket out in order to catch the incredible bargains…
Silver, be careful although it’s a great time regardless to buy. I have the feeling we’ll see the BPGDM fall even farther (0-10) before this abysmal drop for the miners is over.
doc maybe try trading from charts and forget the worthless narrative opinions…who cares…up 6% from low yesterday…glta
no response please
Doc has never recognized a low, short term or long term, but just like the herd, his confidence that we’re going lower always peaks at lows.
No guarantee of future seccess, but he sure recognized which way to be for more than the past year as to discovering a gold sector. Don’t let it bother you too much.
At some point you will call it.
Still waiting for your cdn loonie rise and dxy collapse from months ago. Never happened in spite of spike in commodities and look at that oil. Like I told you then the cdn. snowbirds hope not to keep suffering from the exchange difference.
Lol, He’s been bearish at EVERY low no matter how obvious. If he was as great as he believes, or even competent, he would point out at least the likelihood of the intermediate lows as they are happening (like March and September last year) and then add his conclusion that they probably aren’t going to be the final correction lows. But he doesn’t do that at all. He simply looks for lower lows AT EVERY LOW including the 2018 low for gold when gold was under 1200. On top of that, he never turns bullish after a low once the evidence makes it clear (to competent people) that a low is in fact in place. It was the same in early 2016 and he even went short at one of the worst possible times just like his oil short this year:
He’s bearish at every low yet remains right all along in his mind. The last time he was bullish RIGHT NOW and not off in the distant vague future was on the eve of the 2013 crash.
As for the Canadian dollar and everything else for that matter, you need to do a little homework on basic technical analysis because you obviously don’t know an objectively bullish big picture when you see one nor do you understand that market/chart action is fractal. No wonder you’re so upset all the time, confusion will do that.
oh my. yes the gold sector lows just keep happening. But hang in there another pop up is coming.
as for the cdn loonie, you gotta talk to those cdn snowbirds, they are somehow missing out on the bullish technicals you see
Yes, the lows just keep happening. Nothing’s new and no one cares if you hang in there or not.
Of course the snowbirds are missing bullish picture, most people are just as clueless as you.
SILJ is showing its best volume since the May low:
2 hour chart
This 60 minute chart GDX fork continues to work well:
GDM:Gold turned at fork support (chart isn’t “live” because I used gold instead of GLD but will update to show today’s action this evening):
DXY 240 minute..bearish triangle looks to be nearing completion…glta…seems more than even
UUP interesting fork action:
Fibonacci fan and speed lines (red):
Copper has plunged hard since I recently warned that it was about to…