Dave Erfle – Precious Metals Mining Stocks Are Oversold, But Key Support in Gold Could Still Break Lower

Dave Erfle, Founder of the Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review the oversold levels in the precious mining stocks and the technical support levels he is watching in gold, GDX, and GDXJ. The markets have remained transfixed on the CPI and PPI inflation readings from last week and continue to speculate on how this data may impact the ongoing Fed rate hiking cycle. 


We discussed the mild bounce we’ve seen in mining stocks so far this week, and Dave outlines that we are within range to see at least a short-term bounce from oversold levels in GDXJ, and that the miners and silver have just started to outperform gold, but that we’d need to see a lot more follow through to get a more bullish reversal going.  On the downside he still sees risk to gold breaking down through the $1675 support that was tested 3 times last year, and if there was a quick break below that down to $1650, then it could mark a capitulative low for the sector.  Dave still has a lot of cash set aside in his portfolio to be able to take advantage of any further pressure over the next few months.


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    Jul 19, 2022 19:24 PM

    Junior Mining Stock Wisdom during Uncertain Times with Pro Mining Investor David Erfle

    Mining Stock Education – Jul 14, 2022

    “In this interview pro mining investor David Erfle provides his commentary on the recent 9.1% CPI and what that means for the markets, gold price and junior gold stock sector. He discusses how to discern and take or add to positions at a junior mining stock bottom. David and Bill also discuss the many failed mine developers over the past two years. David specifically shares some thoughts on Rio2 Limited’s denied environmental permit in Chile.”

    Jul 19, 2022 19:27 PM

    Peter Krauth: The Great Silver Bull

    Small Caps – July 10, 2022

    “Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor and author of ‘The Great Silver Bull’ joins Small Caps to discuss his new book and thesis as to why he believes silver will outperform in the coming years.”

    Jul 19, 2022 19:31 PM

    Equity Management Associates, LLC — EMA GARP Fund, LP.

    Report for the First Quarter ended June 30, 2022

    > Key Takeaways:

    – Inflation Rages
    – Hawkish Fed
    – The Everything Bubble Has Clearly Burst
    – Crypto and Bitcoin
    – Will the Fed’s Actions Work?
    – Volatility Is Here to Stay
    – US Federal Deficits and Its Impact on Gold and Gold Miners
    – Portfolio Positioning

    Jul 19, 2022 19:54 PM

    Steve Hanke – Economist who called 9% inflation has this grim forecast for what’s next

    David Lin – Kitco News – July 18, 2022

    0:00 – Peak inflation
    4:30 – The Price Is Right
    9:45 – Living standards vs. inflation
    12:30 – GDP forecast
    14:19 – Inflation relief checks
    18:00 – Europe’s response to inflation
    21:45 – No such thing as a ‘free lunch’
    25:00 – Scandinavian living standards
    28:22 – Quantity Theory of Money
    32:00 – Money velocity
    35:28 – Taxes vs inflation
    41:00 – Price control
    43:29 – Gold sentiment index

    Jul 19, 2022 19:40 PM

    Follow the publicly available, zero cost sentiment indicators. They tell no lies.

    Jul 19, 2022 19:50 PM

    Hello to all!

    I have been listening and watching when I can and i have chosen to be in the background since really nothing of importance has happened.

    Thank you Ex, Matthew, doc, wolf, Jerry and a few others for keeping the ker going. In reality nothing has changed with the miners they have just oscillated in this range for as long as I can know.

    The last I spoke of was the monthly candle and I took a shot at it being a green candle it didn’t work out but I mentioned that even if it went down I still consider the situation bullish. The 1680 level that many are speaking of is well known from a long time ago so nothing really special we will keep an eye on it but in reality the minors are sitting in a position that it’s just a matter of time before we explode hire I’m a long-term investor not a short-term trader so nothing changes.

    I think that the discussions that ask Matthew and a few others have had it’s very great knowledge he and very realistic. When you look at all the Pundants and people with knowledge in the industry I think we can concur that it’s just a matter time before we move higher. I do not for one second believe that we will go to the Lord numbers that Larry has mentioned the sub 1500 and although everything is possible I give that less than 5% to happen.

    With that being said Glen will share his views of the current market I believe the HU I and the XAu have been distorted and caused a W formation that is evident to the Eye on a chart that is flimsy at best. The turn is very close and will catch everybody by surprise but before that term comes it is possible as Matthew said we get a retest of the low and the minors could make a lower low but then I believe it’s off to the races. I also believe that we will break the 2000 level before year end in if not definitely before February and you can mark my words on that 100%.

    Best of luck to all! Im 95% invested give or take.


      Jul 20, 2022 20:38 AM

      Good to see you’re still lurking Glen…..thanks for the input

      Jul 20, 2022 20:50 AM

      Well Glenster, I’m glad to see you post… I was considering doing a call out to you to see what might have been changing, if anything, regarding your view.

      I also find it interesting that your view remains different from what we are hearing from Joe’s occasional posting of running for the hills. 😉

      Thanks and keep us posted.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:00 AM

    Weekly /GC chart shows a clear ABC down pattern and the B point was broken on volume during 7/4/22…..One needs to own that fact…That is what I am trying to communicate…It lurks out there….I am presenting evidence for both sides of a trade…Which is what one needs to survive…glta

    Jul 20, 2022 20:58 AM

    Newmont must break Dollar grip.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:12 AM

    the housing number looks deflationary not hyper-inflationary…too me…what do i know?

    Jul 20, 2022 20:52 PM

    The miners now look like a buy to me, especially on further weakness tomorrow morning (the more the better).
    Even today the small silver stocks are outperforming the large gold stocks (which is a good sign for both)…

      Jul 20, 2022 20:57 PM

      well that will be cool…i am all cash again….buy is tomorrow…my concern is that /GC has a failed and left translated trading cycle from 7/14 trading cycle low…Matthew you are saying tomorrow morning will be the daily trading cycle low…very possible…glta

        Jul 20, 2022 20:12 PM

        Yes, I think it will be.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:10 PM

    Only 55% of the TSX-V is resource stocks and only part of that is gold-silver related so a bottom here would be more significant than might be obvious to some. Whether it has bottomed or not, I expect it to underperform the pure gold and/or silver plays by a lot in the months ahead.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:32 PM

    The week isn’t over but AMZN sure looks like it can rise for awhile based on this week’s performance so far…

    Jul 20, 2022 20:42 PM

    The 30 year US treasury yield is now monthly overbought for the first time in 41 years yet many “experts” continue to predict the Fed’s actions based on the last ten years. We are in the midst of a sea change that will last for decades. This isn’t 2008 or any period since.

    Jul 20, 2022 20:32 PM

    Ex…You are quiet…Hope you are not suffering too much….It is very rough…