Minimize

Welcome!

Weekend Show – Making Sense Of Fed Policy and The Market Rebound

Cory
July 30, 2022

Welcome to this week’s Weekend Show! It was a Fed week that as expected lead to volatility in the markets, especially after the press conference on Wednesday. A noticeable shift happened where investors have gone risk on. We saw pretty much all sectors put in positive days at the end of the week. The concept of the Fed being at peak hawkishness is helping to drive this very different sentiment. But remember, markets started bouncing 3-4 weeks ago. This week added some short term fuel to the rebound. 

 

We are still working on our podcast distribution after switching providers. Please let us know if you are having any issues accessing the podcast. Also if you have any insights on why iTunes is not updating please email us. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.

 

  • Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder of the Felder Report kicks off the show by sharing his thoughts on the “Fed pivot” from peak hawkishness. We discuss the difference between actual inflation and inflation expectations. Also the market reaction of most sectors moving higher and how he sees the metals moving throughout the year. Click here to learn more about the Felder Report.
  • Segment 3 – Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of the PreMarket Prep website is up next with a focus on market moves after the Fed meeting. If the Fed truly is at peak hawkishness then we could see longer term relief from the falling markets. We also balance out the moves in risk on stocks compared to the safer assets. Click here to keep up to date with Joel’s trading at the PreMarket Prep website.
  • Segment 4 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex wraps up the show with a focus the moves in the currency markets post Fed meeting. the US Dollar is off its highs but is this the start of a longer term fall? We weigh economic data and central bank policy to determine where it will go from here. Click here to visit Marc’s blog Marc to Market.

 

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week

 

 

 

 


Jesse Felder
Joel Elconin
Marc Chandler
Discussion
115 Comments
    BDC
    Jul 30, 2022 30:19 AM

    Trends: https://tinyurl.com/4ypebbv9
    With the PM bottom now likely in
    Newmont needs to join to win.
    NatGas may continue lower.
    Eastern war soon over?

    Reply
      BDC
      Jul 30, 2022 30:24 AM

      Guns in August
      have roared before.
      Can there be peace
      or must there be war?

      Reply
    BDC
    Jul 30, 2022 30:33 AM

    Dollar Index : Summer 2022 : Next Leg Down : Target 104.65
    https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/07/dollar-index-summer-2022.html

    Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:05 AM

    You boys like your Feral Reserve? It’s nothing more than an absurd criminal enterprise robbing you blind.

    Reply
      Jul 30, 2022 30:31 AM

      It’s called The Stockholm Syndrome.
      X1000

      Reply
      Jul 30, 2022 30:24 AM

      Welcome to the site. You will find many interesting and varied thoughts on the Fed discussed here on a daily basis. Your thoughts will blend in even with some of the “girls”.

      Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:49 AM

        “girls” as well as “boys”.

        Reply
          Jul 30, 2022 30:57 AM

          Boys???? Girls??? Are you a biologist??? What about the non-binaries/LGBTQXYZs??? You get any of them here???

          Reply
            Jul 30, 2022 30:03 AM

            Very interesting response. Have a nice weekend. See you Tuesday.

            Jul 30, 2022 30:07 AM

            Well, thanks for the welcome but I’ve been here since close to when this site started….2004 or maybe it was earlier….2000? Matthew probably knows. Ex, too. Think he had a post on the history of this site. I mostly hang out in the orphan section these days.

            Jul 30, 2022 30:46 AM

            I knew that. Just punching your buttons as there are limited Fed Fans here. 😗

            Jul 30, 2022 30:08 AM

            Heck…and I meant no harm…I was just quoting the Great Katanji….Uncle Joe’s Supreme Court Justice…wisest jurist to come down the pike in decades…and who could ever question the wisdom of Uncle Joe…he learned about roaches, you know…Come on, man…

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oihV9yrZRHg&t=408s

            Jul 30, 2022 30:22 AM

            Hi Ebolan and Lakedweller2 – I really like and appreciate both you Kool Kats, and in reading this thread think you may have misread the intent of the others posts.

            Yes, Ebolan has been around here longer than almost everyone, except possibly OOTB, IrishT, CFS, and Matthew. A long time KER Crew member, with the official T-shirt. He is also a master of sarcasm and humor to illustrate points, and I read his “You boys like your Federal Reserve” post with a smile and chuckled, because I knew the point he was making, and didn’t think he actually believed we like the Fed. Obviously they are, like all central banks, and abomination to liberty and the citizens they steal from through monetary policy and the insidious tax of inflation, and they directly intervene in “free markets” process.

            Lakedweller2 has been highlighting regularly the nefarious and criminal elements of not just the central banksters, or their banking cartel cronies, but also the issues with law, regulation, and bad actions by many of their other cronies on Wall Street in hedgefunds or institutional dirtballs that regularly fleece other market participants with the games they play.

            Both of you guys are solid contributors, and your varying thoughts and perspectives are greatly appreciated.

            Ever Upward!

    Jul 30, 2022 30:30 AM

    Where is Joe The Prophet?

    Reply
      BDC
      Jul 30, 2022 30:40 AM

      Joe the Tell
      Rang the Bell.
      But is he Right?
      NEM missed the Flight?

      Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:13 AM

        Yep, near approaching bottoms and tops, the vocal permabulls and permabears usually ring the bell, just like good ole’ Joe did the last 3 weeks. He was so insistent that holders of PM stocks sell near their lows after correcting since April, and in larger sense after pulling back for 2 years. Why in the world would people finally sell there and “sell low” into the end of the capitulation? Those kinds of blowhards, that offer no fundamental or technical reason for their megaphone calls of “to the moon! – rocket ship emojis” or “sell it all — we are going down the drain in certain doom” are the types that offer a great contrarian signal.

        Most of the gold stocks I’ve been tracking closely (mid-tier gold & silver producers, smaller producers, and the developers) have been rising for the last 2 1/2 weeks now, the last few days was simply an accelerant of the overdue bounce back higher again.

        As for Newmont, we discussed that a few times in the show this week with Goldfinger and Dave Erfle, about their earnings call being a trainwreck of different inflationary problems and other issues. Their selloff was possibly a bit overdone, but that is why they didn’t track the rest of the sector as well in this particular instance.

        Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:46 AM

        That’s a nice drinking song

        Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:14 AM

      He is silently buying 🙂

      Reply
        Jul 31, 2022 31:30 AM

        Good one Thomas. Haha! 😉

        Who knows? He never even clarified what all the cash was going to be used for, or if it would be even put in the markets at all – general equities? resource stocks? purchase metals directly?

        At what point in time or at what technical price level was he going to deploy said cash?

        When did he advise putting the cash raised by selling resource stocks at their lows to work in the markets? At lower levels (which specifically), or at higher levels once a breakout was underway? (like we’ve seen the last 2-3 weeks in so many resource stocks since he was advising to sell them all during the exact same period of time). It’s a real conundrum…

        Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:29 AM

    Maybe Joe will be back in a couple weeks. I am only a cautious bull and value his enthusiasm. We are not out of the woods. There are massive deflationary forces still at work. Europe seems on the verge of collapse. There is no doubt credit crisis’s brewing.

    Reply
      Jul 30, 2022 30:22 AM

      Agreed on all points Steve. I’m sure if we see any market weakness in a few weeks or months, he’ll be back pounding the table to sell everything once again near another low. Yes, it’s good to be cautiously optimistic, but while recognizing we are a long way from out of the woods.

      It’s helpful to look at things in different timeframes and be able to separate them in ones trading and investing approach. Whether one is a short-term trader or longer-term value investor, can alter at what point they feel like deploying cash, as well as one’s risk tolerance levels and trading process. Some look at placing trades over hours or days, some over weeks or months, and some over years or even decades. Some play for short-term intraday tradable rallies as day-traders, some for swing-trades over a few days or weeks, some as position-traders over a few months to a year, or some as value investors for an approach over many years. Some investors like buying where support is, some like to dollar cost average in, and some like to wait for the turn to be more well-established before feeling safe to enter the trade. All strategies have different associated risk and potential returns, along a spectrum.

      For example, as shorter-duration swing-trader and medium-term duration position-trader, I was buying the dip the first 2 weeks of this month with both hands and mentioned so a number of times, for a number of good risk reward factors piling up:

      – COT positioning had banks long and speculators/hedgies short – ripe for a short squeeze

      – BPGDM plumbing a 13 then a 10 for several weeks, showing terrible breadth in the sector, and one of the lower levels seen in years. The 2016 low in mining stocks turned up at 16. The index also flashed 100 for a several weeks from late June-July 2020, right before topping in August. It’s sometimes a leading indicator that takes a while to unfold, but at extreme highs or low, it’s a fairly safe bet on either selling or buying respectively.

      – Insanely oversold chart indicators on the hourly, daily and weekly charts in most mining stocks. Again, the prevailing trends was analysts shifting their dialog over to just looking at things through the monthly charts, quarterly charts, etc However, while those are good for longer-term trends, they will always miss where the actually turns happen for strong short-covering rallies, as the change in direction won’t be more clear on those monthly and quarterly charts until much more time has gone by. It’s not a bad approach for longer term value investors, and will limit losses in protracted corrective moves, but it will keep those kind of investors bearish too long at turns, and bullish for too long at tops, and they’ll miss some of the best rallies in the junior mining stocks which often happen in days, weeks, or months, not over quarters, and they’ll stay long too long after we start seeing gut-wrenching declines.

      Sure monthly and quarterly charts are good for smoothing out the big picture “noise,” but many successful traders actually want to track that “noise” and appreciate the pricing whipsaws, as that is where some of the best base-hit wins come from in such a cyclical and volatile sector. Nobody makes money in a sideways trending market (unless they are selling options), and it is the double digit down days, followed by double digit up days in many stocks that provide many of the opportunities to trim or add to positions, or just generate new trading capital to deploy.

      – Sentiment was terrible the last few months, culminating in early July, with everyone (even prominent bulls) on the bear side of the boat, a number of newsletter writers quit recommending to buy stocks when they were actually near the lows, and some NLWs even sold their resource stocks near the lows, and hardly anyone was putting money to work.

      – When everyone is on the sidelines and not putting money to work or discussing what they are buying, but all talk is about selling or holding, then it is typically a huge tell, because most people read the markets wrong at turns and get emotional. Fear of loss is strong motivator than the desire to gain, and thus getting off the playing field of long or short trading, and instead sitting in the stands as spectator in cash is more comforting. Yes, it provides optionality and people should definitely raise cash, but during periods of strength, not near lows.

      Instead lately everyone has been boasting about how large their cash positions are, which is really a position of uncertainty, because if they were convinced markets were going down they’d short them. If they were convinced markets were going up, they’d go long. Going to cash is essentially and “I don’t know what to do” position, where they are waiting for more clarity. The issue is, by the time the direction of a sector is more clear, the easiest and more explosive moves have already happened and they’ve missed the opportunity to buy low and the easiest money in the initial short-squeezes.

      I understand going to cash though, when someone just is unsure what is going to happen, wants to wait for a lower target, but doesn’t have a strong enough conviction to short those markets they think will go lower. Nothing wrong with being a spectator and waiting for the setup one wants to see, but it’s not something to brag about, as it is a losing position getting eroded by 9% inflation at present.

      What was worse was the droves of people at ceo.ca, stockhouse, hotcopper, seeking alpha, youtube, twitter, and even here at the KER advising others to sell or people declaring they were done with the sector and sold their miners to move to the metals. This is exactly the kinds of behavior that we see at bottoms. Everyone is convinced things can only go lower, people “Cry Low” instead of “Buy Low”, and leave blaming the sector or pundits in the sector, instead of their own terrible trading skills.

      Obviously, it’s the inverse of that at tops, like what we saw in the growth tech stocks and cryptos culminating into Q4 of last year. They couldn’t lose right. We heard such trite statements like “Don’t fight the Fed”, “The Fed has your back”, “I’m going to HODL – Hold On for Dear Life” or my favorite stupid declaration these punters were making “I’ve got Diamond Hands” implying they could hold through anything. What a complete load of horse dung. When the poop hit the fan, they sold just like everyone else did, and then as people starting running for the exit doors, their HODL became RFDL [Run For Dear Life]. Human herd behavior is as hilarious as it is predictable. 🙂

      Regardless, this desire to sell everything or people cowering in cash after most of the damage was already inflicted, is the exact same thing that happened during the Pandemic Crash from late Feb – April of 2020. Do people not remember that same exact thing playing out then?

      Remember during that crash in the spring of 2020, when so many declared “I’m out” or “I just sold my positions and going to cash” or “going to the sidelines watching for XYZ signal…”. You couldn’t ask for a better contrarian signal, and it was of course the buying opportunity of a generation. That was the time to freaking be deploying Cash, but the vast majority of people in all sectors were far too scared to “buy low.”

      They claim in defense of missing this buying opportunity of a geneartion… “Well, the world was ending and it was too uncertain of a time…” Yeah, exactly, that is precisely the time you want to be buying, and I sure was. When I had posted a few times mid March 2020 – joking around a little that I was “looking in the couch cushions for some spare change to deploy in resource stocks of all kinds – gold, silver, copper, zinc, palladium/platinum, nickel, uranium, lithium….” — A few people wrote back publicly telling me to be careful, or asking Why? Then people emailed me and instant messaged me that they were very nervous about the buying I was discussing on chat boards at such a uncertain time.

      That gave me even more confidence to press my bets, figuring most people said the exact same crap after the 2008-early 2009 Great Financial Crisis, when I decided to up my contributions to my retirement fund in a big way, and moved my parents money out of CDs and low payoff funds into a variable annuity. Obviously the markets came roaring back in later 2009 for many years, and those that sold during that period f’d up bad, and those that went to cash for a while, took way too long to get back into the pool, and missed some explosive upside moves in the markets. The Pandemic Crash of 2020 was shaping up to be the exact same thing, and the more worried everyone got, the more the contrarian alarm bells were sounding. I decided to move over some funds from deep savings in March & April of 2020 to my trading account to buy even more gold, silver, copper, palladium/platinum, nickel, uranium, lithium stocks, while most were discussing their cash holdings from the sidelines.

      The recent sell everything event in the markets was not nearly as dramatic as the 2008-2009 G.F.C or the Pandemic Crash from late Feb – April 2020, and as a result, the snapback rally may not be as strong or sustained, but coming into July and as the month started, people were way to bullish in the short-term, even if medium to longer-term there still is more pain in store. You gotta be in it to win it, and take advantage of deploying cash into those weak sentiment periods, even if you sell back out on the bounce to raise the cash back up again. Why in the world would you want to sit out the best part of the game on the sidelines? One word. Fear.

      Reply
      Jul 30, 2022 30:50 AM

      Those massive deflationary forces have been and will continue to be met by even greater inflation. Gold is now cheap relative to money supply growth (inflation). The Fed can ALWAYS depreciate the currency that they emit. Deflationists like Bob Hoye are out to lunch on that crucial fact.

      Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:18 AM

    Western banks have massive derivative debts that were never regulated. The banks are interconnected and dependent and been held together by money printing. Dominoes if they begin failing.

    Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:29 AM

    My portfolio is up around 35% in the last two weeks. This is what I was hoping for and I expect this to go on for the month of August. I can sell everything and be totally out in one day if need be but I’m counting on the fact that I will be able to spot the coming crash and liquidate before it gets in my face, sit in cash and wait for the buying opportunity of a lifetime. LOL! DT

    Reply
      Jul 30, 2022 30:33 AM

      Bring It On, YEAH BABY! DT

      Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:28 AM

        +35 Very well done DT. Congrats man!

        My portfolio is up about 21% off it’s bottom a few weeks back, but still a long ways away of the portfolio all time high in early June of 2021.

        Hoping some other investors here were buying the mining stocks while they were cheap earlier in the month and enjoying the gains the last few weeks. Very nice to see some green on the screen for a change.

        Reply
          Jul 30, 2022 30:54 AM

          Hi Ex, thanks for the kind words. This site needs your input, keep up the good work. I believe we will see some normality for a few weeks. I am looking forward to what the immediate future brings our way. I will try to keep looking for a positive and fruitful interpretation of what has been happening lately, but I don’t believe the change we are seeing is temporary. DT

          Reply
            Jul 30, 2022 30:15 PM

            Thanks for sharing your outlook with us DT. It is very much appreciated, as is the kind feedback.

            Yes, August may be fairly “normal” (although, I’m not sure anyone knows what normal is anymore), things may get a bit more dicey in Sept-Nov, as we approach the “September Surprise” “October crash” and mid-term elections in the US in November.

            It would be nice to see things bounce higher in the coming month and then I may trim a bit into that strength, and would consider moving some of those profits over to shorting the general markets if they keep rallying for another month. We’ll see how it goes…

      Jul 30, 2022 30:42 AM

      DT: Those are some good gains over the last couple of weeks. Mine didn’t move until Powell turned gold on Wednesday, and I had 3 good days. I will play it day by day as I want to see if infrastructure programs can see the light of day rather than rhetoric.

      Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:37 AM

        Many of the higher torque Mid-tier Producers, Smaller Producers, and Developers actually bottomed on the 11th or 12th of July, and have rallied the last few weeks. If one is too exposed to the explorers or more sluggish developers, then some of them only got moving the last few days.

        As we’ve discuss so many times, the moves usually start with the more established companies first (royalty companies, producers & best developers), as that is where capital finds a home quickest from more risk adverse investors in the resource stocks, and eventually the money flows trickle down into the explorers and less exciting developers/optionality plays once the move picks up momentum and people get a bit more speculative in nature.

        Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:00 PM

        Lake, What Can You Do, Professor Dice was right the stock market is like rolling numbers and hoping for the best with Lady Luck coming through at the end. LOL! DT

        Reply
      Jul 30, 2022 30:55 AM

      I can’t wait to unload everything and pay off half of my mortgage. I’m still up but my “pay-off-the-house” money took a hit.

      The strategy is to sell, wait for a pullback and then deploy 50%. I was gonna do that June 2020. My portfolio was up a damn lot, was going to take some money off the table, but then greed took over and here I am, writing nonsense on this site.

      Someone with a smart and winning strategy, please share. I’m all ears.

      Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:10 PM

        Buy when things are way oversold, and sell when things are way overbought. Rinse and repeat.

        Reply
          Jul 30, 2022 30:53 PM

          But but Joe told me to sell everything
          I’m kinda confused
          LoL

          Reply
            Jul 30, 2022 30:58 PM

            Haha! Yeah, I could see where Joe’s confusion as to how this investing thing works could be contagious.

            Cheers!

    Jul 30, 2022 30:08 AM

    Ex……..Thanks for the seniority ratings………. I am Grandfathered in………. lol……… 🙂

    Oh……….. and the FAKE FED…………SUCKS………….. 🙂

    Reply
      Jul 30, 2022 30:08 PM

      +2 OOTB. Yes, you are grandfathered in for sure amigo. 🙂

      … and yes, the fake Fed does suck… at least more generalist are starting to wake up to that reality, and that their Wizard of Oz, is just some weird ole’ dude behind a curtain pulling levers, and there is nothing magical about them… in the slightest.

      They said they weren’t even thinking of even “thinking about” hiking rates until 2023 just last year. Wrong.

      They said inflation was not a concern from all their monetizing of debt or their huge balance sheet or from the insanely large government fiscal packages in the Trillions spending money like drunken sailors. Remember when their goal was 2% inflation? Who in the hell roots for any inflation anyway? (only bankers, as everyone else loses purchasing power).

      They said inflation was “transitory” in Feb/Mar 2021 and indicated it was just a few months of supply chain issues. Yeah, right… anyone with 2 braincells to rub together could see it as all the money printing that was leading to inflation, and the supply chain issues, or later the war in Ukraine, were just adding to the mix and took the blame. So many fell for their B.S. that it would just be a few upticks to inflation for a few months into the summer of 2021, which served the Fed’s purposes well to announce they wanted to taper their bond purchases. Think about it, if they had messaged, “oh crap, it looks like inflation is going to be sticky and last longer and go higher than we imagined, everyone would have sold their bonds before the Fed could. How can people not see the sinister motives behind the Fed’s messaging?

      Well, the latest CPI reading was 9.1%, and the latest PPI was 11.3%, so again they had no clue about inflation, and Janet Yellen (former Fed head and now Secretary of the Treasury) came out and admitted that they didn’t really understand inflation.

      These people that should know the most about finances and economics are either clueless (which is possible), but more likely they know exactly what causes inflation… all their money printing. The reality is they are trying to engineer markets and failed at containing the implosion in the Great Financial Crisis, and so all they can do now is blow bubbles with liquidity, then kill demand with monetary tightening, then blow more bubbles, then tighten… keeping things on perpetual life support using their intervention. The big question this time is — Are they going to be able to put the Humpty Dumpty economy back together again this time?

      Just a few months back they finally started their hiking of the Fed funds rates, waaaaaaaaay to late in the game and so far “behind the curve.” Real inflation adjusted rates were, are, and will remain extremely negative. Currently the Fed Funds rate is 2.25%-2.5% after their hike this week. More importantly the 10 year bond yield is 2.66%, while the CPI is 9.1%. That’s a negative real rate of 6.44%. Is that how a healthy market looks?

      In June, suddenly Powell thought he had become Volker and was prepared to hike, hike, hike and “do everything necessary to fight inflation as long as it takes.” The markets reacted in kind, and sold off, and now a month later they’ve already dialed it back. Tragic comedy.

      They said for months they would only do a 50 basis point hike in June and July, but then leaked info to the WSJ that in June it would be 75 basis points just a week or so out. Anyone that listened to what they said was surprised, but any thinking person knew they’d need to set up it up more to play catch up before the markets and economy got too weak. Then in July, the expectation went from what the Fed had said at 50, to the market catching on it would likely be 75 and many were even debating 100 basis points. So quickly people forget what was said just a few months ago, and act like the Fed has had their current stance all along. Instead, the Fed has been wrong-footed for the last 2 years and have overseen a huge policy misfire.

      Now a month later, after even higher inflation readings (which supposedly they care about for price stability), they have also noticed the very stagnant and weakening economy staring them in the face. The weakening GDP, weakening housing sector, and the cracks showing up in many areas and metrics in the labor markets, are evidence to the contrary of the supposedly strong jobs number last time. Even though we are technically in a recession, the government officially changed their definition of a what their language was about 2 negative GDP growth quarters back to back, to rewrite what qualifies as a recession to be “data dependent.” Why would anyone trust a word these guys & gals say?

      Remember when they restated QE and stated with a serious face “Oh… but this isn’t more QE.” Then by the end of last year they admitted all their $120 billion a month in accommodative bond purchase was QE and they were going to start to “Taper” it. Again… Why in the world would anyone believe what these people say?

      Their language that they are on “the low side of normalizing rates,” that they “wouldn’t give forward guidance any longer on future hikes,” and that they’d be “data dependent” gives them plenty of wiggle room to start letting off the accelerator, just one month after they became super-hawks. All these folks do is flip flop, and either they are messaging the way the do to purposely mislead and try to manage expectations, or they truly are incompetent and making this crap up as they go along.

      So their Fed messaging may be quite fake, but their actual policy decisions are all too real.

      It’s best to deal in the real and look at what they actually do, and ignore most of what they say. Actually some of the Fed governors give better indications and float out trial balloons at times, and some of them are agents of the misleading the public to manage perceptions.

      Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:00 PM

        Ex……… I would say that is a great summary……….. 🙂

        Reply
          Jul 30, 2022 30:22 PM

          Thanks OOTB. Sometimes it is helpful to call out the lunacy in the Fed messaging and remind people of all the times they were flat out wrong or ended up flip-flopping on stances shortly after making them.

          Reply
            Jul 30, 2022 30:55 PM

            That is one of the reasons……. I continue to say every chance I get………… FAKE FED……. 🙂
            Hard to believe,….we have to explain all that on a mining , metals show……..

    Jul 30, 2022 30:55 AM

    The TSX-V hasn’t been so monthly oversold versus commodities since 2008 and the odds that we’ve seen a major low for that pair are very good.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX%3A%24CRB&p=M&yr=18&mn=5&dy=0&id=t2264310582c&a=1191117099&r=1659207149377&cmd=print

    Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:58 AM
    Jul 30, 2022 30:13 PM

    The HUI bottomed at the same fork support that it bottomed at in December.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p27750205037&a=1115085819

    Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:21 PM

    GDX tested 3 important anchored VWAPs over the last 3 weeks:
    One based on the inception of the ETF in 2006 (thin blue);
    one based on the crash low of 2008 (thick dashed red);
    and one based on the bear market low of 2016 and all time low for GDX (green).
    https://schrts.co/UyCYIkRb

    Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:25 PM
    Jul 30, 2022 30:31 PM

    SLV/Silver looks perfect but there’s some important moving average resistance just above so next week could see the bears reasserting themselves…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05801782604&a=558582253

    Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:36 PM

    ‘The Ingredients Of A Wage-Price Spiral Are Now In Place’

    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (07/30/2022)

    https://mailchi.mp/felder/wage-price-spiral-ingredients

    Reply
      Jul 30, 2022 30:43 PM

      Managing The Inflation Narrative Versus Actually Managing Inflation

      Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (07/27/2022)

      “Today, the Fed is set to announce another rate hike of 75 basis points, taking the funds rate to 2.25-2.5%. And while inflation running over 9% appears to indicate that the debate over whether inflation will prove “transitory” has seemingly been won by the “not” crowd, markets are still pricing in a rapid decline in inflation. Some point to these “market-based” indicators of inflation expectations, derived from the yields of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), as evidence the Fed is on top of the inflation situation.”

      “However, there is a major problem with using TIPS-implied inflation expectations as a report card for Fed policy and that is the fact that the Fed, after buying up more than a quarter of the total outstanding, is now the single most dominant force in the market for TIPS! To some degree then the Fed, in managing its TIPS portfolio via QE and QT, is able to write its own report card. And this at least creates the temptation to try to manage inflation more by controlling the narrative than by actually addressing it directly.”

      https://thefelderreport.com/2022/07/27/managing-the-inflation-narrative-versus-managing-inflation/

      Reply
        Jul 30, 2022 30:49 PM

        I thought Jesse nailed it with that post on the TIPS, and why they should not be used as a means of determining real inflation adjusted rates, because the Fed has been in there buying about 25% them and intervening to paint a different picture than reality.

        Reality is the Fed just hiked rates 75 basis points to 2.25-2.5% inflation because they are so far behind the curve.

        Reality is the 10 year bond yield 2.66% and the most recent CPI reading was 9.1% That’s a negative -6.44% real rate.

        There is no way they are going to get the Fed Funds rate over 9% to 10% and implement the taylor rule. Even if the CPI rate was to get chopped in half to 4.5% the Fed isn’t going to take their rate up over that to 5.5%. At that point just the interest on the debt service load becomes untenable.

        It is interesting how often investors are hoodwinked by financial instruments the Fed has their hands in the cookie jar in like TIPS. People following that garbage for their real rates comparisons have been wrong-footed big time in 2021 and 2022. Nice of Jesse to highlight that and discuss it with us on this weekend’s show above.

        Reply
          Jul 30, 2022 30:08 PM

          Officialdumb is there to obfuscate reality and is good at it. All one needs to know is money supply growth (the true definition of inflation) and economic and market conditions. Like legitimate capital, counterfeit capital/inflation will flow to the sector that has the best fundamental tailwinds. This drives the facts laid out recently by Jordan Roy-Byrne here:
          https://thedailygold.com/the-1-long-term-indicator-for-gold/

          Reply
            Jul 30, 2022 30:28 PM

            Agreed Matthew. Yes, that was a good article from Jordan and I meant to post it here but got sidetracked, but thanks for putting up the link.

            This passage illustrates Jordan’s position well:

            _______________________________________________________________

            The #1 Long-Term Indicator for Gold
            Jordan Roy-Byrne – July 24th, 2022

            “The two things to watch for in the coming months are the S&P 500 rolling over and making new lows and the Federal Reserve moving from rate hikes to rate cuts. These are the ingredients for not only the potential start of a new secular bull market in Gold but also a major cyclical upturn in the gold stocks.”

            “The bottom line is that unlike in 2015, 2018, or 2020, the stock market is likely starting a new secular bear market, which has tremendously bullish implications for precious metals… Such an event and the S&P 500 falling below its 40-month moving average would solidify an imminent secular bull market in Gold.”

            https://thedailygold.com/the-1-long-term-indicator-for-gold/

            Jul 30, 2022 30:06 PM

            Rate cuts could appear to be a good thing just as recent hikes appeared to be a bad thing but the 1970s clearly proved that nominal rate cuts aren’t necessary when real rates are very negative. I don’t know why so many refuse to accept the fact that sharply rising nominal rates in the ’70s as well as later decades happened alongside sharply rising gold. Oh well, they’ll learn from experience in the years ahead.

    Jul 30, 2022 30:57 PM

    Fed Peak Hawkishness Sparks Gold Short Squeeze

    David Erfle – Friday July 29th, 2022

    “Once Powell mentioned the Fed is leaning towards normalizing rates as soon as early 2023, the gold price moved briskly towards initial resistance at $1740. Powell also said Wednesday that the central bank would be prepared to slow the pace of rate hikes as the economy reacts to its aggressive monetary policy.”

    “Yet, the most telling highlight of the press conference came when Powell emphatically stated several times the economy was not currently experiencing recession, as this statement came a mere 16 hours before Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data revealed otherwise.”

    “On Thursday morning, the Commerce Department said in its advanced reading that U.S. GDP fell -0.9% in the second quarter, missing market estimates by a wide margin of a 0.4% increase. The disappointing news came after Q1 GDP was announced at -1.6% in May. Commonly, a recession is understood as two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.”

    “It isn’t readily clear when or where the idea that two quarters of negative GDP growth equals a recession originated, although in almost every case, the adage is true and it has, historically, been a reliable recession indicator.”

    “Moreover, all of the past 12 recessions identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research have seen at least two quarters of negative GDP growth, and, conversely, each instance of at least two quarters of negative GDP growth has later been declared a recession.”

    “But government economists recently claimed that is not the official definition of a recession, nor an appropriate one, after the White House changed the official definition of a recession earlier in the week. From a White House blog post on July 21, the government now says that data from every facet of the U.S. economy must be considered and foreshadows what to expect for Q2. ”

    https://mailchi.mp/081000309790/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1601114

    Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:49 PM

    Hmmmm….. I mention uranium on Thursday and Friday there’s a Justin Huhn interview. Big Brother is still listening to me. 🤪…….Ex you on a triple expresso today???……those posts are longer than any essays I’ve ever been forced to write. 😏

    I see the GASX warrants finally have an ask now that they are at the money but .90 is ridiculous. Looking to flip more of my shares into warrants as the price becomes more reasonable. Love the leverage.

    Using profits to buy more EMO and a starter position in UEC.

    Matthew you’ve got a great knack for calls on commodities. Keep up the calls on copper and uranium please. Looking to add to the copper especially when the time is right.

    Reply
    Jul 30, 2022 30:27 PM

    The only , True / Free & Honest market in the World today is …. “BARTER” … All others are manupilated.

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:51 PM

      IrishT – If the World Economic Forum “Great Reset” elites get their way, as Klaus Schwab noted “in the future you will own nothing and like it.” There won’t be any personal property left for people to barter with. 🙂

      Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:34 AM

    Here’s some more M&A news between Aris Gold and GCM Mining, that I’ve not heard much discussion on from gold investors. Aris’s board of directors is stacked with a lot of familiar names, and in a recent interview Tommy Humphrey did with Frank Giustra and Ian Telfer, they mentioned the plan with Aris was to grow through mergers and acquisitions. Well, here’s one in the works right now.

    ______________________________________________________________________________________________________

    Aris Gold and GCM Mining combine to create a leading Americas gold producer

    July 25, 2022

    GCM Mining Corp. (GCM) (TSX: GCM; OTCQX:TPRFF) and Aris Gold Corporation (Aris Gold) (TSX: ARIS; OTCQX: ALLXF) announce they have entered into a definitive agreement under which GCM will acquire all the outstanding Aris Gold shares not already held by GCM. The resulting entity will be named Aris Gold Corporation and will be led by Ian Telfer as Chair and Neil Woodyer as CEO and Director.”

    https://s28.q4cdn.com/389315916/files/doc_downloads/2022/07/Aris-Gold-GCM-news-release-25-july-2022.pdf

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:29 AM

      Yes and familar name on the other side of the deal as Serafino from GASX is an insider of GCM.

      Reply
        Jul 31, 2022 31:24 AM

        Interesting Wolfster. I’m not as familiar with GCM, but have owned Aris Gold off and on since last year. I had a solid profitable swing trade in it a little while back and was planning to buy back into it with funds raised recently if we saw the further capitulation in the mining stocks this last week that so many pundits and technicians were calling for in the near-term. Instead, the metals and miners simply continued to climb even higher.

        As a result of the continued rally in so many PM stocks, I mostly just held steady in my positions last week. Then the news broke, and I wanted to see how Aris would trade once they announced the merger. I’ll spend some time soon digging into GCM a bit more to see what all they bring to the table for the combined company.

        Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:25 AM

    I appreciate the continual ongoing education here at KER…The fundamentals behind the precious metals trajectory cannot be dithcussed enough for a guy w my beginning basis…lmao

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:29 AM

      +1 Agreed Larry. We are blessed to have so many insights and real sharing of ideas here on the KER podcasts and from contributors here on the blog. Ever Upward!

      Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:06 AM

    The Silver market cannot head much lower than it is now, I’m a Believer………………………….! DT✔

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:35 AM

      While markets always have the possibility of moving lower, I’d tend to agree that it is more probabilistic that Silver just put in a bottom when it dove down to $18.01 earlier this month and then snapped back higher nicely popping up to over $20 by the end of last week, to close up the month.

      Lots of silver stocks also made a good run higher the last few weeks, so that has been nice to see as well.

      Personally I’d like to see Silver reclaim that $21.41 level on a closing basis, that was prior support and is now resistance. Ultimately, for more confidence that we’ve seen the low in Silver, it would be ideal to see it put in a strong weekly close in the mid $22’s.

      Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:39 AM

    Ex, this one is for Shoe Polish Joe, John D. Rockefeller say’s, “When my shoe shine boy invests in the stock market, I sell everything.” Sell when the people without investment knowledge invest in stocks at high prices and buy them when others sell low because it is here. DT! LOL!

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:17 AM

      Yep, That is a classic from Rockefeller that many people use, and they adapted it to the modern age with Uber drivers instead of shoe shine boys. It was no different in any other sectors at any other time period in the markets, but just happens faster now as news travels instantly online.

      We saw the same thing happen when everybody finally got excited about Uranium last year and then it topped and rolled over for months for a nice corrective consolidation move. Then investors flip-flopped to extremely negative on Uranium stocks in just a few months from Nov 2021 to late Jan 2022, and so that was the time be buying and of course Uranium stocks had a great rally from late Jan through April.

      We saw it by the middle to end of 2021 when so many resource investors, and even those investors not typically in mining stocks, finally got hip to the Lithium narrative last year after it already had made it’s big run for years, and was having it’s blow off top. The Lithium narrative was well established years ago, and like Uranium it was an eventuality that people just needed to get in position, when nobody cared about them a few years previous, because obviously prices would need to go higher, and so would the quality resource companies.

      We saw the same thing happen in cryptos where everybody got super enthusiastic in 2017 only for it to mark a top and roll over by 85%, and then by last year in November 2021 we saw a repeat of even more unbridled enthusiasm for all things growth Tech, EV, Crypto, DeFI, NFTs, SPACs, you name it…, and of course that marked the top once again.

      It rarely feels good or like a “smart idea” to be buying when assets are out of favor or even hated and left for dead, but that is the ideal time to be acquiring them.

      Conversely, It is easy during those time periods to have bashers come in and kick sand and peoples eyes while they are down, and say sell sell sell it’s going down the drain, celebrating the misery of others.

      Those type of individuals have something emotionally wrong deep inside of their hearts and psyche, but we see it all the time in multiple sectors and in individual stocks.

      When certain “cult stocks” that the herd piled into on a hot narrative top out and roll over and start to plunge lower, it always brings out bashers and trolls that revel in others pain and aren’t even invested in that stock or sector.

      There are always those disturbed individuals that get on chat boards like ceo.ca, stockhouse, twitter, youtube, reddit, wherever and cheer the correction, implosion, and capital destruction, taunting and trolling those still invested with calls to SELL, SELL everything and preserve what capital investors have left (as if they are people’s saviors or something). They don’t have any substantial or specific fundamental or technical data to share like legitimate bears do, but boy the just know everyone should sell. There is nothing special about Joe or his uninformed sell everything at extremely oversold level calls, enjoying the pain of others, and he is just like all those other garden variety bashers.

      To be fair, it’s just as ridiculous when the permabulls say BUY, BUY, BUY, and use 3 rocketship emojis and “to the moon!!” on a sector or specific stock without providing and substantive or specific fundamental or technical reason for their bullish pumping and cheerleading.

      When people feel overly emboldened to proclaim what others should do, and their chief claims simply mirror the most recent trend of an overly extended uptrend or downtrend, (where indicators and sentiment is already at extremes), then those are usually contrarian signals to do just the opposite of.

      When things are already way overbought and sentiment is in euphoria, and people come on screaming Buy! and that “there is no limits”… then it is time to sell. When things are already way oversold and sentiment is in the toilet and everybody is expecting lower prices, and then someone comes on with this recency bias, and proclaims people must Sell! to save yourself and your remaining capital, then it is time to buy.

      We just saw this in spades over the last few weeks when everybody was negative on almost every market, except the US Dollar (which people felt was going to keep breaking out to 120). Of course three weeks ago was the time to have been buying almost any sector that was beat up for a tradeable rally, and that is precisely what we’ve seen in almost every sector for the last few weeks, except for the over-crowded Dollar trade that did roll over. That doesn’t mean that there still couldn’t be more weakness in the general equities or commodities, or that the dollar can break out above 109.50 and go towards that 120 target many technicians had in their sights. It is more so a lesson that when everyone is in the bear side of the boat, it is natural for is to shift back bullish again, if only for a period of time for a good counter-trend rally to cash in on . If everyone is on the bull side of the boat, like we saw in the US Dollar, then shorting the dollar, or going long the Euro, Yen, or Pound is likely a good currency pair trade for a period as the pendulum swings back.

      Again, it is key for people to understand sentiment extremes, technically overbought and oversold conditions, breadth warnings to the positive or negative, and importantly to know if they are executing a short-term swing trade for a bounce or for a short correction, a medium-term position-trade for more extended move over a few months to a year, or if they are accumulating as a value investor with a time horizon of multiple years.

      This is so interesting, because people often claim to be long-term value investors ready to hold for years in many sectors (gold/silver, copper, nickel, uranium, palladium/platinum, oil/nat gas, rare earths, whatever…) and then they freak out at every little blip one way or another. That makes no logical sense. If you are buying with 2-3 year time horizons, and you believe you got positioned at a solid and low valuation based on where you believe things are heading, then why in the world would you even care about what is happening this week or this month or this quarter? If the longer-term thesis is that it’s going to take 2-3 years to play out, then check in a few times a year and go to the beach until 2-3 years go by.

      On the more active trading side of the house, if one is getting in a swing-trade for a few days or a few weeks in a sector or specific stocks, to short it or play for a rally, then monitoring fundamental news and technical drivers makes a lot of sense. However, why in the world do you care about the 2023-2024 guidance or even what the Fed is doing next year? Get in, scalp off 20%-50% in a few days or weeks, and then get back out and do it again, when one sees the compelling trade setups. Rinse and repeat.

      Really, it seems like most investors are not short-duration traders, but conversely, they are not really longer term value investors either. As Rick Rule so often quips… “Most investors have a hard time holding over a long weekend.” Most investors are actually position-traders that hold for period of a few months to a year in an equity before moving on to trade other equities.

      This medium-term time horizon, has to straddle the fence a bit and still pay attention to extreme moves due to fundamental macro factors or due to technical setups, to be able to capitalize on downturns by deploying cash, and then capitalizing on upturns by trimming positions back to raise more funds to buy the next dip. Then eventually when the wind is in one’s sails for an extended period of time and one has met their investing objectives on that position, then the goal is to scale out of the position in tranches for a win on the ride up, or use a big liquidity event (like a takeover or merger) for a clean exit.

      Personally, most of my trading is position-trading for about 2-3 months to a year time horizons, when I feel a sector or stock is obscenely oversold, and has a high likelihood of rallying higher over a 2-12 month period. I mix in some very short-term swing trading to play bounces for a few days to a few weeks to generate profits to use in my position trading. I do have positions I’ve been invested in for years as longer term value positions, but I’m always trimming and adding around the core position and rarely am all in or all out, although there are periods where that is the case.

      For example, I’d been building up good Lithium positions since 2016/2017 and trading around them, and beefed up a number of them during the Pandemic Crash, but when things really got silly last year, I ended up exiting all my Lithium positions one by one by the summer and early fall. Same story with Uranium stocks. Now I’m back in 7 Uranium stocks and have traded them a few times this year into the rallies and corrections, but am pretty much at parity in most positions at present. If they run up really big in the next year, I’ll probably take the chips off the table. If Lithium companies correct a bit further, then I may get back in a handful of positions. Copper stocks are starting to look attractive and I’ve got 5 of them going at present that I’ve been accumulating as Dr Copper was taken out at the knees. It may be a bit too early on some of them, but if they drop a bit more, I’ll continue beefing up those positions. I’m only in one Nat Gas play at present, but if Oil stocks correct a bit further in the medium-term, then I’d like to get back in half dozen of them. My primary focus at present though (80%+ of my portfolio) is really on the Gold and Silver stocks & royalty companies, as they have the most compelling fundamental and technical setup IMO.

      Good luck to everybody, regardless of your trading style, or which sectors you are engaged in. Ever Upward!

      Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:40 AM

    July Ends Better Than It Began for Gold and Silver Markets – Monthly Wrap Up

    Sprott Money w/ Craig Hemke – July 29, 2022

    “As July comes to a close, precious metals show off some “solid green candles”. But with the biggest gold miner in the world washing out to the lowest levels in decades, is the worst finally behind us… or is the pain just getting started? Host Craig Hemke sits down with Bob Thompson of Raymond James in Vancouver to break down all the gold and silver news you need as we head into the back half of 2022.”

    > In this edition of The Monthly Wrap-Up, you’ll hear:

    – What gold and silver investors consistently do wrong
    – Where we are on the “mining clock”
    – Plus: why miners are caught in a Catch 22

    https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Monthly-Wrap-Up-July-2022

    Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:43 AM

    Looking for Higher Lows and Higher Highs

    By David Brady – Sprott Money – July 28, 2022

    “Today I am looking back at previous major lows where sentiment was in the toilet, technical indicators were extremely oversold, and positioning was bullish for signals that the bottom was in and the next rally has begun…”

    https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Looking-for-Higher-Lows-and-Higher-Highs-David-Brady-July-28-2022

    Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:47 AM

    It’s Game Over for the Fed—Expect a Monetary “Rug Pull” Soon…

    by Nick Giambruno

    “….And if you earned $1 per second, it would take 31,688 years to make a trillion dollars. So that’s how enormous a trillion is. When politicians carelessly spend and print money measured in the trillions, you are in dangerous territory.”

    “And that is precisely what the Federal Reserve and the central banking system have enabled the US government to do. From the start of the Covid hysteria until today, the Federal Reserve has printed more money than it has for the entire existence of the US.”

    “For example, from the founding of the US, it took over 227 years to print its first $6 trillion. But in just a matter of months recently, the US government printed more than $6 trillion. During that period, the US money supply increased by a whopping 41%.”

    “In short, the Fed’s actions amounted to the biggest monetary explosion that has ever occurred in the US.”

    “Initially, the Fed and its apologists in the media assured the American people its actions wouldn’t cause severe price increases. But unfortunately, it didn’t take long to prove that absurd assertion false.”

    “As soon as rising prices became apparent, the mainstream media and Fed claimed that the inflation was only “transitory” and that there was nothing to be worried about. Then, when the inflation was obviously not “transitory,” they told us “inflation was actually a good thing.”

    “Of course, they were dead wrong and knew it—they were gaslighting. The truth is that inflation is out of control, and nothing can stop it. Even according to the government’s own crooked CPI statistics—which understates reality—inflation is breaking through 40-year highs. That means the actual situation is much worse…”

    https://internationalman.com/articles/its-game-over-for-the-fed-expect-a-monetary-rug-pull-soon/

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:57 AM

      $1 per second equals $576,000 per month at 40 hours per week. That’s around $7 million per year. So $1 trillion also equals roughly $110 million per year since the year 0.

      Reply
        Jul 31, 2022 31:48 PM

        … but what’s a few more Trillion dollars created by fiscal stimulus bills being thrown around… right?

        The number are mind-boggling if one thinks about how much new money has been created in just the last few years.

        Reply
          Jul 31, 2022 31:56 PM

          Yet Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Pocahontas Warren, etc. lie constantly to their dumb followers about the source of inflation and of course their lies are idiotic and/or insane like those who believe them.

          Reply
            Jul 31, 2022 31:08 PM

            Agreed. I’d add in Janet Yellen as the Secretary of the Treasury (former Fed head) and Jerome Powell and his Fed cronies and financial apologists, as huge forces of disinformation about what is really behind inflation — all the new money supply. They’ve been great at shifting the blame to supply chain issues and war in Ukraine, which provided them the perfect cover to deflect the focus onto. Sadly, most of the suckers bought that messaging… but that is typically how things go.

            Jul 31, 2022 31:43 PM

            They are all LIARS……………… 11%approval rating…….. going after the guns for the NWO…… Klaus moron, along with all the BIS…… should be rounded up……..

      Jul 31, 2022 31:10 PM

      If you took one thousand dollar bills and piled them one on top of another, when they reached 58 miles that would be the equivalent of one Trillion Dollars. DT

      Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:00 PM

    URA finished Friday at Ichimoku cloud resistance and just below its 200 day EMA. The daily cycle is already mature but I bet it can manage another day or three higher, possibly to the 200 day simple MA.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p49515590659&a=1217099113

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:08 PM

      From a weekly perspective it looks much more promising so the current daily cycle could top with a strong surge well above the current price. If it does, then I’d say the pullback from there would be a great buying opportunity.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p60719302115&a=1112001746

      Reply
        Jul 31, 2022 31:16 PM

        This weekly chart shows the significance of the current level but aggressive types can buy now based on other factors. Others might consider waiting for a weekly close above the weekly Ichimoku cloud. A 6 percent higher close this week would do it.
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08864447338&a=1189651140

        Reply
          Jul 31, 2022 31:56 PM

          Thanks for those URA charts Matthew.

          – Any thoughts on the possibility of it breaking through that Ichimoku cloud resistance on this move, or is the most likely path the deflection back down you mentioned and then clearing it on the next leg higher?

          – I’m sure URNM is a similar picture, but just curious if it looks like different potentiality to you?

          URNM is really the better ETF for tracking just the Uranium miners, and it’s allocations make far more sense than URA, which also has a lot other tech and other commodities garbage in there muddying the waters. Just curious if the overhead resistance may look different on URNM?

          Reply
            Jul 31, 2022 31:01 PM

            A break above the cloud looks very likely for both ETFs and soon but then I suspect there will be a pullback and generally sideways action for a few weeks. Look at that curly 8,17,9 weekly MACD buy signal…
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URNM&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68106019060

            Jul 31, 2022 31:12 PM

            Thanks for that URNM chart Matthew and for pointing out that 8,17,9 weekly MACD buy signal.

            So that’s the 8 week that just crossed bullishly up through 17 week. Right?

            Jul 31, 2022 31:27 PM

            Here’s an annotated URNM chart. Bulls should want this week to close at 75 or higher…
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URNM&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41990196234&a=1217145915

            Jul 31, 2022 31:53 PM

            Almost forgot, the black MACD line is the 8 EMA less the 17 EMA, in this case, weekly. The red line is the signal line and is the 9 EMA, again, weekly in this case.

            Jul 31, 2022 31:32 PM

            Got it. Thanks for sharing your technical thoughts Matthew.

    Jul 31, 2022 31:33 PM

    As you can see on the first weekly chart above, oil is worth analyzing for more clues about URA but the correlation isn’t perfect. For example, URA bottomed 5 weeks before oil in 2020 but oil bottomed 8 weeks before URA last November as it went on to new highs while URA did not.

    XOP is also worth watching…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOP&p=D&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83088133748&a=1191655181

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:05 PM

      That could end up being the case is Nat Gas (the potential of a double top there). That will be an interesting chart to follow along with. I only have one remaining nat gas stock (GASX), but in retrospect should have held onto a few others in light of the resurgence. If it is a double top though in nat gas prices, then maybe some of them will go back on sale one more time. If it’s not a double-top, then I don’t really want to chase these stocks much higher.

      Man, I’m surprised how hard N.G. rebounded right back up again, but a lot of that is due to the further issues Europe is having importing it from Russian, and the US exporting Liquid Natural Gas to Europe now with the prices skyrocketing. Also, it is a very hot summer in Europe, the UK, the US, really a lot of places, which is just further pressuring the demand side of the equation even further.

      Reply
        Jul 31, 2022 31:28 PM

        That hard rebound is part of the reason it looks like a good double top candidate.

        Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:49 PM

    Oil could go higher in the short term but I still think it is heading for the 80s…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p09458490139&a=1108295631

    Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:19 PM

    I’m surprised to see buyers supporting MUX as it took off last few days post reserve split. Perfect timing by them on the split or just luck? I expect it to start dropping like a lead fart pretty soon.

    Reply
      Jul 31, 2022 31:36 PM

      Terry, I’d say it was perfect timing. The market is generally unkind to share consolidations regardless of the company-specific circumstances so doing it at a major low is smart. Plus, I’d bet that Rob McEwan himself aided the post consolidation action with strategic bids of his own.

      Reply
        Jul 31, 2022 31:14 PM

        Also good timing by those who grabbed shares the week before split. Emailed them for some additional information but no answer. They all buggered off on holidays until the smoke clears in August. Not much left in the kitty at MUX except 200M authorised shares.

        Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:40 PM

    Fitts………. out with a good comments concerning the FAKE FED……….
    at usawatchdog……………
    Considering the Fake Fed…… has scammed the USSA, out of $100 Trillion, yes, $100 Trillion,

    Reply
      Aug 01, 2022 01:06 AM

      Once you know the Agenda of The Fed, their actions make sense.
      A Fascist form of government is completely compatible with a transfer of wealth of citizen property. “Combined control by politicians and corporations”. Citizens rights are not part of the scheme.

      Reply
    Jul 31, 2022 31:15 PM

    Don’t forget The International Monetary Fund or IMF, they are probably good for $200 Trillion. DT

    Reply
    BDC
    Aug 01, 2022 01:26 AM

    “Krell Money” … just add another zero!

    Reply
    BDC
    Aug 01, 2022 01:31 AM

    Beautiful inverse Head & Shoulders for Gold!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkGf1GHAxhE

    Reply
    Aug 01, 2022 01:51 AM

    Hi Ex, check your e-mail inbox, Thanks, DT

    Reply
    BDC
    Aug 01, 2022 01:31 AM

    Michael Boutros (Gold & Silver 41:40);
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MhxePz-krk

    Reply
    Aug 01, 2022 01:32 AM

    Yikes! over a hundred comments; are we in a PM bull market or something? I hadn’t noticed.
    I’m down to 65 shares of WPM (-25% at the moment) and a few misc odd lots which are owned by balanced mutual funds. It’s quite liberating to have so little exposure to the sector, and I side with Joe much of the time; but I don’t understand why he isn’t happier.
    Oh, I almost forgot – there’s still the stash under the concrete pad that the propane tank sits on. (j)
    .
    Jack’s public charts: gold sector starts at the bottom of page 1
    https://stockcharts.com/public/1094070

    Reply
    Aug 01, 2022 01:29 PM

    I like the looks of this 195 minute SLV:GLD chart (but it will probably pull back tomorrow or very soon after):
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=195&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=t2763668680c&a=1217904585&r=1659381955270&cmd=print

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *