Brien Lundin – Considering All The Debt The Fed Will Stop Hiking Rates Before Year End

September 2, 2022

Brien Lundin, Editor of the Gold Newsletter and host of the New Orleans Investment Conference joins us to share his projections on the financial markets including gold and silver all in the context of Fed policy. We all know how tied the markets are to Fed policy with the Fed continuing to hike and markets being pressured to the downside. Brien is thinking that the debt situation will cause the Fed to stop hiking before year end and this could drive PMs higher.




Click here to visit the New Orleans Investment Conference website to learn more about the conference.

    Sep 02, 2022 02:26 AM

    Rick Rule Reveals Which Stocks He Is Invested In Right Now


      Sep 02, 2022 02:38 AM

      Rick Rule is on BNN now, Eric Nuttall will be on at 3:20pm Eastern time.

        Sep 02, 2022 02:07 AM

        Much appreciated Dan. Both Rick and Eric are very sharp guys.

        I need to remember to check in on BNN more often. Cheers!

          Sep 02, 2022 02:33 AM

          Both are valuable resource sector advocates.

          BBB, Brixton… thanks for the $ this week, bought at .12 and .14 and sold today at .155 and .16… thanks for the advice Joe, haha!;-) Seriously Joe, you be you and I can look after myself. Like Casey says, these stocks can be like burning matches.

            Sep 02, 2022 02:52 AM

            More great points Dan. Apparently Joe doesn’t understand the concept of trading these mining stocks (and they are all trades), and buying low and selling higher. That’s why he’s missed most of the rallies this year like the good one from Jan-Apr, or the move from early July to early August. There were several nice tradable rallies last year, and the year before, and the year before, the key is to buy when things are oversold and sell when they get overbought on the lessor charts.

            People just sitting in these miners for years at a time are going to get banged up, but no rational person buys the highs in August of 2020 and just sits in them down to current levels, so that strawman assumption is way off base. All commodities are cyclical by their very nature, not just Gold and Silver, but Oil, Nat Gas, Palladium, Nickel, Copper, Zinc, Uranium, Lithium, Rare Earths, Graphite, Fertilizers, etc… (many of them had very epic moves the first few months of just this year, not to mention great moves over the last 2-3 years).

            Now if one is investing in the extractive mining stocks or energy stocks that correlate within these volatile sectors, then they are even more choppy and have big moves higher then swan dives down lower, then another big move higher, then another big move lower, and so on… As you mentioned, these little mining stocks “are like burning matches.” They go from zero to hero and then typically burn out quickly, so one has to make hay while the sun is shining, and then pick the next trade set up.

            If people have held onto these stocks for decades (like some say since the mid 2000s to present) or since the 2011 high or whatever….and didn’t take appropriate risk management measures in their portfolios, or buy after larger corrective moves or near key turns, then that is on them. It isn’t the sector’s fault, but their own poor money management and trading disciplines. Even well run companies with good projects go up 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, and then follow that up with pullbacks of 20% 30% 50% or 80%. That is the nature of this sector.

            People that weren’t buying in late 2015 into early 2016, or the fall of 2018, or the spring of 2019, or the spring of 2020, or even more recently in tax loss selling of 2021 into the Q1 run, or the move down to silly levels we just saw culminating in late June to early July, and were not putting cash to work simply do not get it.

            If people were listening to some of these jokers advising to sell in January or February or recently in June or July then they’ve been wrong-footed all along, and don’t understand the basic concept of putting cash to work to buy low, and then trimming back the stocks when they run higher by double-digit or triple-digit percentage moves.

            Sep 02, 2022 02:07 AM

            I have been the guy that held on too long for sure! I bought too soon on SCZ this week but am averging down and have confidence in both companies.


            BTW, I traded about one third of my position in Brixton and will gladly buy back in.

            Sep 02, 2022 02:16 AM

            Yeah, I really like Santacruz Silver (SCZ) as well, and bought a bunch at much lower prices a few times in years past and actually faded out some of my position on a few of the rallies we’ve had in prior years and have just held onto the core position which was essentially a free trading position.

            However, in light of the recent weakness, on the back of what was actually a great quarterly operations report, and in a sluggish low sentiment environment in the mining stocks, I’m considering adding more to my position. I had my finger hovering over the buy button all week, but decided to wait in case silver and the stock broke down even further. I was going to buy some today, but want to see how things go next week.

            I did add a little to my growing position in a beat up growth-oriented gold producer Superior Gold (SGI) today. They’ve had a rough few years, but with a new team and new focus, I like their prospects for a turnaround, and to increase production meaningfully by 2023, and again in 2024. They just had a tough operations report for last quarter due to weather and covid personnel issues, but for the balance of the year I expect things to pick up again, and really next year will be their breakout year.

            I like to get in early though, when stocks are unloved, and prior bagholders are pissed off, as these are generally the best accumulation points. I did the same thing with Gatos Silver (GATO) this year buying at max pessimism and have tagged two good trades for over 60%, buying it for the bounces when most left in disgust.

            Again, why people don’t take advantage of the trade setups when these companies get pummeled down, and then surge higher on a relief rally is beyond me, but even in corrective periods, traders paying attention can still make money.

            Sep 02, 2022 02:53 AM

            My problem is I usually will only have 1 or 2 stocks that get into the LT Capital gain category. ST gains have that higher tax charge but I can’t be controlled by the Tax Man. The other issue I have is that most of my stocks have disallowed losses because I don’t wait 30 days to turn them over and buy back. Now sometimes I plan a tax loss but half the time something happens that makes me buy back early. What I have to do also is keep a running list in front of me everyday that has two columns: Do Not Buy and Do Not Sell. A couple of years ago, I got suspended for 90 days for violating the “settlement” rules. I have to resist getting in and out too soon. More FWIW stuff.

            Sep 02, 2022 02:14 PM

            Hi Lakedweller2. That is what I do. I have a running list of what I sold on what date, when the 30 day period is up, and when it is appropriate to buy after the wash period. Obviously, if something major happens during that time period, then I may have to trade it and forego the tax loss or recalculate the gain, as it will be disallowed. I find that the majority of the time waiting out the 30 day period is not going to radically change things though, and I often I get back in at a much better price anyway.

    Sep 02, 2022 02:32 AM

    What a great day… TO SELL!!!!
    You’re getting a bump today, take advantage of the situation and SELL!!!
    DON’T BUY, SELL!!!
    You will need CASH in the future, and if you don’t sell your PM stocks now you will later for much, much less.
    This rally in PMs today is a sucker rally, it will sell off soon and PMs will go much, much lower.
    Happy Friday!!!
    Enjoy the long weekend.

      Sep 02, 2022 02:56 AM

      Now if I had sold the other day when you said sell, I would have missed out on two days of gains. I don’t know… I am thinking that maybe your message does not take into account what is happening in the markets. Just me.

      Looks like about 11:00 AM EST or CST, some unnamed group of people poured a bunch of phony paper contracts into the Dollar reflected on the Forex. Now I know Fiduciaries such as JPM have had their corporate person convicted of a felony for Forex manipulation, but that wouldn’t be why you recommend sell would it. I noticed you predict the future. Do you have inside information or some official basis for your recommendations. It would be helpful to know. It might make us more receptive to know.

      Sep 02, 2022 02:06 PM
        Sep 02, 2022 02:18 PM

        No, that isn’t me, but I would like to thank you for the link to that piece.
        Very well written and insightful.
        I would encourage everyone here to read it.

        Sep 02, 2022 02:44 PM

        Thomas thanks for sharing that analysis and article from Jonathan Mergott. It is one of the better bear cases for continued weakness in the PMs that I’ve read in a while. He pokes holes in a lot of the common tropes regarding the COT commercials versus large speculators reasons for being short or long, or typical narratives we hear regarding how that will relate to a bottom or the potential of a short squeeze. He also goes after those that perpetually think JP Morgan will get their shorts squeezed in some epic move higher, and I’d have to agree that is far more unlikely than some thing, because it is simply their hedge against long positions.

        As for whether we are near that 2013 moment where everyone thinks the worst is in after a 50% corrective move, and then we see another 50% lower in short order is possible, is concerning, but also remains to be seen. We had a few different conversations this week asking guests like Brien, Jordan, Craig, Doc, and Steve if we were seeing that same kind of pattern play out again, and also had a few chats with folks off-mic about that potential scenario of break down below $1675 gold and what that could do to the sector and to the mining stocks. It is a legitimate concern, especially if paired with a further corrective move down in the general markets and cryptos and other sectors in a “sell everything” type of environment.

        For me personally, it is concerning to have seen Silver break down below $21.41 support, and dive down to $18.01, only to bounce up above $20, and then roll over and dive down below $18 in the mid $17’s over the last week or two. If Gold was to break down through $1675, then we could see something similar play out in the yellow metal and related gold miners, so that is a big going concern.

        This is something I’ve been mulling over for a while in response to a number of technicians projections, macro factors piling up, and sentiment in most thought leaders or companies we talk with still being “cautiously optimistic” about metals prices heading higher moving into the fall and winter. If we do see a 2013 style waterfall decline, then sentiment could still move much lower, along with stock prices.

        Personally, I’ve pivoted more funds out of the riskier explorers and stagnant developers, and beefed up my positions in growth-oriented PM producers and the mid-tier royalty companies, as to limit downside should the markets move against us. If we see a further bump higher in September in mining stocks, then I may take out an inverse PM mining stock ETF hedge against my long positions, being at such a tenuous place. Definitely some food for thought, on taking a slightly more defensive posture moving into the next few months.

      Sep 02, 2022 02:10 PM
    Sep 02, 2022 02:26 PM

    Watch the dollar go green before close. Isn’t that impressive.

      Sep 02, 2022 02:43 PM

      Time: CST: 2:41 PM Dollar turned green. Miracles can happen…

      My account has been slowly losing some of its earlier gains. How do all these miner buyers know to sell already. My My My…

        Sep 02, 2022 02:02 PM

        At least finished at one- half of HOD. Dollar couldn’t get much traction beyond turning green.