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Ed Moya – Ethereum Merge and The Investment Outlook For Cryptos

Cory
September 21, 2022

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins us for a pre-Fed meeting interview where we focus on the cryptocurrency sector. There has been some big news recently in the crypto space especially with the Ethereum merge. We also discuss the investing landscape for the crypto space in terms of retail and institutions.

 

 

 

Click here to follow along with Ed’s daily market commentary.

Discussion
18 Comments
    Sep 21, 2022 21:13 PM

    IPT opened the day at fork support and closed at fork resistance after a good-looking retest of its low of two months ago.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p62371497076&a=1191905217

    Reply
    Sep 21, 2022 21:25 PM

    I am expecting about 1 month of weakness from here in the miners. Short term calls are no better than roulette, though, and absolutely nothing would shock me at this point.

    Based on the chart damage in silver, I am not expecting price to break out this year. Late next year or even 2024 is my estimate. April to July wrecked the long term charts and MAs.

    Reply
    Sep 21, 2022 21:26 PM

    60 minute QQQ reversed hard at multiple resistances and settled at Schiff fork support. The current environment will prove far worse for the stock market than for the gold and silver stocks.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=11&id=t0810570314c&a=1255314009&r=1663795107959&cmd=print

    Reply
    Sep 21, 2022 21:50 PM

    Like inflation, the bear market in stocks is just beginning.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92225284623&a=954015424

    An awful lot of “pivoters” and their parrot supporters/defenders need to do some homework.
    Doc was better than some pivoters but thought there’d be 2 or 3 hikes of .25 points each.
    The 1970s’ inflation was just a warmup.

    Reply
      Sep 21, 2022 21:07 PM

      So are you saying that the Fed will not cause a liquidity crisis at some point if they keep raising rates?

      If the Fed keeps hiking rates, wouldn’t you agree that at some point mark to market means widespread insolvency for many companies and pension funds? Given the leverage in the system, don’t you think that could pose a systemic issue?

      Or are you predicting that the economy just muddles through and that we get a gradual bear market that lasts many many years, with the Fed raising rates continuously but never above the rate of inflation?

      Reply
        Sep 21, 2022 21:09 PM

        I am saying the Fed will raise as long as the bond market requires it to. If the Fed chooses to “become” the bond market in order to force low rates in the face of market pressures/realities that demand higher rates then we will have a greater catastrophe that will result in huge a widespread market dislocations.
        Thanks to the 2008 dress rehearsal, the central banks of the world have greatly expanded their powers to essentially do whatever they want whenever they want so I doubt there will be another 2008 style liquidity crisis.
        Those who’ve gone through life assuming that the Fed is slave to the goal of a permanently rising stock market are getting a crash course in reality.
        We’ll “muddle through” but I’d not put it that way since most people will experience extreme hardship at least by Western standards.

        Reply
      Sep 21, 2022 21:16 PM

      The Fed already has lasted longer with hikes than I thought they would. But, intervention seems across the board and cans are still cheap to kick. Things will change when Wall Street bonuses can’t buy a Lambo…

      Reply
      Sep 21, 2022 21:34 PM

      Cathy Wood crying the blues about all the damage Powell is doing. In the meantime selling puts on TBT is not a bad way to park cash while you’re waiting.

      Reply
    Sep 21, 2022 21:51 PM

    As bad as the US stock markets look, their 100 WMAs still haven’t stopped rising, which for me means its still possible for them to continue their secular bull market (that’s in stark contrast to something like silver, whose 100 WMA is now bending downwards and strongly suggests many months more of weak consolidative behavior even if it is able to avoid a secular bear).

    It’s going to be really interesting to see what on earth could allow stocks to blaze to new highs from here if in fact they can recover.

    Reply
    Sep 23, 2022 23:58 PM

    Hurricane Fiona Amplifies Tensions Between Puerto Rico and its New Crypto Residents

    Andrew R. Chow – Time – 1h ago

    In the last couple years, Puerto Rico has received a flood of crypto entrepreneurs, investors and influencers who have sought to take advantage of the island’s tax benefits. While these transplants argue they are bringing jobs and capital to the island, local organizers say they are driving up housing prices, privatizing beaches, erasing culture and destroying communities.

    The emergence of cryptocurrency business activity is among many of the island’s climate concerns. The mining of certain crypto-assets have significant climate impacts, contributing to annual greenhouse gas emission levels in the U.S. that are roughly similar to the diesel fuel used by railroads nationwide, according to a recent White House press release.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/hurricane-fiona-amplifies-tensions-between-puerto-rico-and-its-new-crypto-residents/ar-AA12bf59

    Reply

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