Joel Elconin – Continued Market Pressure Is All About Rising Interest Rates And A Surging US Dollar
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show as well as Editor of the PreMarket Prep website, joins us to review the continued market pressure from both rising interest rates and a surging US dollar. We discuss market expectations around Fed policy, and he feels it is already priced in at this point despite different central bank mouthpieces reiterating another 100 basis points of hikes to come, and feels the tell has been the bonds and how TLT signaled the rollover in markets earlier today. We also get Joel views on different data points we see circulating out there like daily sentiment readings, oversold momentum signals, monthly closes and quarterly closes and more.
When we dive into how to parse the expectations for Q3 earnings season, he reiterated they are expected to be weak, but we also discussed the impact the strong dollar is having on multinational companies, where it is hurting their earnings overseas. Joel will be more focused on how companies provide guidance for Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, as the forward-looking messaging from companies will be more important than the backward looking numbers from last quarter.
*Cory and I are attending the upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference on October 12-15. We’d love to see you there! It’s a great way to meet company management and spend some time in New Orleans. Click the link below to register and please let us know if you will be there so we can meet up.
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The financial sector vs GLD:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF%3AGLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p31503390204&a=1101859294
Wall St deep in bear market as S&P 500 hits new two-year low
By Shreyashi Sanyal and Ankika Biswas – Investing.com – Sep 27, 2022
“Wall Street’s main indexes sank deeper into a bear market on Tuesday as an early rally in stocks faltered after Federal Reserve policymakers advocated more interest rate hikes even at the risk of slowing economic growth. The benchmark S&P 500 erased gains of up to 1.7% by early afternoon trading to hit lows last seen in late November 2020, leaving investors worrying about how much further stocks would have to fall before stabilizing.”
“St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made a case for more rate hikes, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the central bank will need to raise rates by at least another percentage point this year.”
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/futures-bounce-off-wall-streets-2022-lows-2899663
Fed ‘united,’ moving at ‘appropriately aggressive’ pace -Kashkari
Tue, September 27, 2022
Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Tuesday said U.S. central bankers are united in their determination to do what is needed to bring inflation down, and financial markets understand that.
“There’s a lot of tightening in the pipeline,” Kashkari said in a WSJ Live interview, referring to interest rate hikes already delivered but yet to have an effect on the U.S. economy and on price pressures.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-united-moving-appropriately-aggressive-180258925.html
Cash and Carry … former Goldman and first bail-out monitor. I think he ate all the chickens in the hen house.
He is carrying away the cash now for sure…. 😉
Overall, Uranium stocks had a pretty good green day.
Symbol – #Uranium Stocks – Daily Change %
API.CN Appia Rare Earths & Uranium Corp. +21.92%
WUC.CN Western Uranium & Vanadium Corp. +15.86%
SYH.V Skyharbour Resources Ltd. +14.86%
CVV.V CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. +14.29%
FUU.V Fission 3.0 Corp. +12.50%
FSY.TO Forsys Metals Corp. +11.32%
ISO.V IsoEnergy Ltd. +7.55%
EU.V enCore Energy Corp. +7.21%
URG Ur-Energy Inc. +7.01%
GXU.V GoviEx Uranium Inc. +6.67%
UEC Uranium Energy Corp. +6.37%
U-UN.TO Sprott Physical Uranium Trust Fund +6.33%
DNN Denison Mines Corp. +6.13%
UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. +5.90%
URNM Sprott Uranium Miners ETF +5.79%
BKY.L Berkeley Energia Limited +5.45%
NXE.TO NexGen Energy Ltd. +5.38%
GLO.TO Global Atomic Corporation +5.21%
CCJ Cameco Corporation +5.18%
MGA.TO Mega Uranium Ltd. +5.00%
FCU.TO Fission Uranium Corp. +4.69%
LAM.TO Laramide Resources Ltd. +4.49%
URA Global X Uranium ETF +4.21%
ACB.AX A-Cap Energy Limited +4.17%
UROY Uranium Royalty Corp. +4.17%
92E.AX 92 Energy Limited +4.00%
BOE.AX Boss Energy Limited +3.83%
GCL.L Geiger Counter Limited +3.64%
BSK.V Blue Sky Uranium Corp. +3.57%
CUR.V Consolidated Uranium Inc. +3.45%
LEU Centrus Energy Corp. +3.36%
BMN.AX Bannerman Energy Ltd +2.79%
AEE.AX Aura Energy Limited +1.79%
VO.V ValOre Metals Corp. +1.69%
LTBR Lightbridge Corporation +1.64%
FIND.V Baselode Energy Corp. +1.47%
1164.HK CGN Mining Company Limited +1.10%
1164.HK is a stinker. Sold my shares some time ago when they gave their CCP friends a big block of shares at a substantial discount…then made an announcement that the placement was good for all shareholders. How is that good for me when a government controlled entity get a 25% discount on their purchase?
Yeah, I’ve never been invested with CGN Mining personally, but I know it is one Rick Rule has mentioned having a large position in a few of his prior interviews where he discussed how he was positioned in the Uranium sector. Really I don’t have much exposure to China, barring my Silvercorp position, and in that case it is actually a Canadian company operating there and also with JV partners in South America.
What a spectacular close by Brixton..
my dialogue with green last week was clear that Brixton was going higher not lower and so far the target seems very achievable in the next few days. The current pullback was clearly a buying opportunity best of luck to all as we look for the next set up.
Jerry thank you for your post on the earlier thread I appreciate your info keep it coming.
Glen………. glad you saw it……… just info to keep in the back of your mind………
I would wait for the week to close before getting too excited. I was expecting once last purge into October.
It’s possible Brixton avoids another drop, but I won’t turn more positive until we get a solid weekly close above today’s level.
Certainly not complaining about Brixton bucking the trend but what’s the catalyst for the recent strength…… are more drill results anticipated???
Raising rates is actually the wrong medicine…..We have cost push inflation from tight supply lines….not demand pull inflation from consumers buying in anticipation of higher inflation prices….the remedy of increased rates is the wrong medicine…..
BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN for the gold miners…and golds price?…This is not like the 70’s….What about the FACT that they cannot raise rates like the 70’s due to the thing called a national debt burden interest cost burden?…WHEN this hits the mass media that should drive gold right???…EX EX EX…what da…clear this up…please…larry
The Fed’s counterfeiting is THE reason for the shrinking dollar so those who believe the Fed is fighting inflation more than causing it will get what they deserve. Scamdemic and supply chain problems are nothing compared to Fed policy but are perfect scapegoats.
There’s no way around rising rates, contrary to popular belief. Debt is now in a secular bear market that will last for a very long time. Whether debt is inflated away or not (for the most part it will be), gold will benefit from what has to happen. The question now is how much higher the dollar will be squeezed first by worse currencies and falling stocks and bonds.
UUP has been capped by the same fork resistance for 2 days. Let’s see how it ends the week. The parabolic buck is now dangerous for both bulls and bears.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=t6220682093c&a=1257966523&r=1664317158567&cmd=print
thanks Matthew…appreciate the efforts of EX you and all…..The fundamentals are just not enough to time this thing, at least in my opinion…..I will continue to look for signs in my charts….Minimally, I still require/await a cross of standard macd(9,12,26) fast over slow…We do not yet have that…could happen in one day,easily though….
The fundamentals are usually no good at all for timing, at least not the timing we’re interested in but I think we will get much more technical clarity very soon. It could even be this week.
Scamdemic? I beg your pardon.
I just got my fifth booster.. I will take 6, 7, 8 and whatever Joe and Kamala tell me to. They know the best
Yes………….. STICK WITH THE PLAN………………….. lol…….. 🙂
I have a picture of Fauci in my room.
He and Birx are great people
Lol
Brixton is up 20% in 2 days on 1.3 million shares traded. It is now at a 3 year high relative to IPT and KTN and a 22 month high relative to SILJ.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p45479182782&a=635402369
Hi Matthew, I bought Brixton Metals less than one week ago for 13 cents and now it is up 40%. I have decided to stay in this market. DT
Very nice DT! I am also in and have no desire to sell this bit of strength.
Hi Matthew, I don’t think the US Dollar can go much higher than it is currently. Do you see any relief from here. This can’t last, I know you can see the technical’s that are supporting it, they must be almost ready to break down. What is your position on this matter. Thanks, DT!
Hi DT, when the price of anything goes parabolic it becomes much more difficult if not impossible to predict. The closer to vertical the action gets the less predictable it becomes. It’s like a rocket reaching escape velocity. The situation allows for more big upside in a very short time but in no way guarantees it which is why most people both bulls and bears should avoid it. With that out of the way I think you’re right to doubt that the dollar will go much higher. It is now on par with the most monthly overbought reading of the last 35 years which happened 7-8 years ago and has now reached significant resistance from 20 years ago. Still, until it cracks, we have to be ready for possibly shocking quick moves higher.
USD monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11255642252&a=1258989916&r=1664324180568&cmd=print
Thanks again for the feedback Matthew, I just wish King Dollar would roll over before it does too much damage, not only in gold stocks but what can happen to The Western World’s economy. Much appreciated! DT
Missed Brixton. But still time, if it’s gonna be a 10 bagger.
Smart Money Tracker just did a video on dollar play going parabolic
Ahh, yes.. Gary “everyone is an idiot and a useless trader” Savage.
He is a nice guy. Especially nice when he let us know he was browsing gay porn just before he made a market video.
When confronted he didn’t deny it. At all.
day DXY…ok…the time band for at least a day cycle down, if not extending into an intermediate correction, is here….ok…we have a dragon fly doji yesterday, equaling wide price range indecision…today, now we have a doji that could become a topping hammer down…the day has not yet begun…110.786 stands out…That swing high price on 9/7 must be broken below for a change in trend…
However, will dollar set in a key reversal day today?..VERY possible…If not we must expect a retest of the all time highs in the dollar from back in the day…It means nothing because the purchasing power of that dollar price today is bibka….and precious metals players know that already…what will occur?…wish I knew…glta
Larry, check out the Euro. It’s the primary Dollar Index inverse influence, and more accuracy is often found in things bottoming than topping. “glta”
i primarily use the instrument in question….binary analysis can be seriously misleading
Some binary analysis is also seriously useful when its utility is understood.
that was not directed at your work Matthew, i was not even thinking that way…….i use it for guides like i do time bands for cycle lows…but the instruments buy or sell signal is from the independent isolated instrument…no problems
Thanks Larry, I get it.
/GC gold futures at this moment w technical buy signal or buy modes in every time frame below 240 minutes……today the day chart cannot have a swing low since that early AM low is on the same bar…tomorrow a swing low by candle work may occur……looks good
looks like it mattered that GDX closed at fork support on Monday…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p98316743371&a=1092627729
SLV:GLD has essentially filled its big gap from over 2 weeks ago:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68867542827&a=1243076287
The week’s not over but GLD is looking good:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59581078454&a=1251432714
i am out of gdxj at 1.50% ABC up on 10 minute chart….will buy the retracement again……the daily volume is weak relative to down legs…as such i cannot consider this a key reversal day…i must assume test of lows move is in order….
The picture is getting worse for stocks versus gold.
DIA:GLD
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DIA%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24827595676&a=1238204214