Brien Lundin – What Will The Impact Of Increasing Debt Interest Be On Fed Policy and PMs

August 10, 2023

Brien Lundin, our Host at the New Orleans Investment Conference joins us to recap his time at the Rick Rule Investment Symposium and his speech. He focused on the increasing debt interest for the federal government and how it could impact Fed policy and markets. We also look to the continued under-performance of the PM stocks to the gold and silver prices.




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    Aug 10, 2023 10:00 AM

    “Gold is the money of kings; silver is the money of gentlemen; barter is the money of peasants; but debt is the money of slaves”

    – Norm Franz

    Aug 10, 2023 10:08 AM

    CPI data/Claims

    Peter Boockvar – Aug 10, 2023

    “The July CPI rose .2% m/o/m both headline and core exactly as expected. Due to rounding, the y/o/y rise of 3.2% was one tenth below the forecast but the core rate at 4.7% was as anticipated. These compare with 3% and 4.8% respectively in June. Energy prices rose .1% m/o/m after a .6% rise in June even though gasoline prices itself was up about 7% in July. Energy prices within this data was down 12.5% y/o/y. Food prices were up .2% m/o/m and 4.9% y/o/y. Prices ex food/energy/shelter fell .1% m/o/m and up 2.5% y/o/y. So if you don’t eat, travel and happen to live in a tent, prices are close to the Fed’s 2% target…”

    Aug 10, 2023 10:01 PM

    /GC 1880 gap test from 3/13 high volume breakout….looks like friday will be whips and chains…lmao

    also looks like spy gap 454 hit in the next week…i do not think this is a final top

      Aug 10, 2023 10:39 PM

      Look for the hidden pivot or area that is $1864-$1866 gap! It has been a long time target of Glen 🙂

      Also keep in mind my good friends in here that the 8 year cycle in gold is due in 2024 so we better and I mean better get her going quick or we are dropping into that nasty 8 year cycle! Which one gives?

      I will tell you at another date… cheers to all


      Aug 11, 2023 11:58 AM

      Is the Yen gaining strength overnight?…..Did the rollover of usd/jpy just save the the trading cycle low from breaking?…maybe…either way…IF gold hits 1880 I add to gdxu…glta

    Aug 10, 2023 10:23 PM

    PAAS missed earnings by 50% yesterday which helped it to fill all but 4 cents of a big gap from 1 month ago. Yet it jumped almost 4% today on nearly twice yesterday’s volume (and biggest volume in 2 months). Darkest before dawn or was today’s action just a short-covering bounce? I think probably both.

      Aug 10, 2023 10:33 PM

      FSM missed and took a beating

    Aug 10, 2023 10:33 PM

    hello, Matthew, what do you think of cde? thank you

      Aug 10, 2023 10:16 PM

      Hello Alex, I do not currently own CDE nor do I follow its fundamentals but do like to own it when I think silver is about to do well so I’m watching now for a possible important low.
      If you do not believe that silver will do well anytime soon then I would avoid CDE and most of its peers for that matter.
      I still think silver can do very well this year so I will probably buy CDE soon. A gap down tomorrow would cause me to buy unless something about the metals told me a low was unlikely.
      If the 2.30-2.25 area doesn’t hold at tomorrow’s close I will be watching the 2.15-2.10 area. After that, possibly as low as 1.70+/-

    Aug 10, 2023 10:34 PM

    thank you, Matthew. Buba ,with KITCO, has target for silver this year $35. looks far away. good trading to you.

      Aug 10, 2023 10:06 PM

      I agree with Bubba. Silver has one of the best setups I’ve ever seen for a quick and big move higher.
      It has been capped by the same huge fork resistance for the last 12 quarters/36 months:

        Aug 10, 2023 10:58 PM

        What would that chart look like with an uptrend fork starting in ’91 and it’s tines starting in ’11 high and the ’20 low? I am just curious and am not very bullish on the sector for now.

          Aug 10, 2023 10:42 PM

          There’s not much to that picture until we get the breakout that I described earlier. Then it would imply a move to the area of the old all-time high.

            Aug 11, 2023 11:23 AM

            Thanks for the chart, I have no idea as to where it is heading but this is a possibility.

            Aug 11, 2023 11:07 AM

            Honestly I think silver has a chance to hit $18 or lower because of the constant rate hikes, high employment and higher for longer. I am not just being negative but realistic, I can’t see silver going over $25 without some kind of outside shock and even the outside shocks like bankruptcies of banks are smoothed over and ignored.

            Aug 11, 2023 11:45 PM

            Keep in mind that rising rates is evidence of rising price inflation and that gold has digested those hike very well. Gold bottomed about 10 months ago even thought several more hikes were still coming.
            Throughout most of the 1970s the metals went up along with interest rates and now that the adjustment to the new paradigm is mostly complete I’m betting continued rate hikes will mean less and less for years to come and in fact could become a tailwind as investors become fed up with entrenched inflation. The hikes began in March last year when gold peaked at 2078 and closed that month at 1954. One year later to the month and despite many significant hikes gold put in its highest monthly close ever and closed 3 of the 4 subsequent months higher than the 2022 high close as well.
            I don’t believe a catalyst is necessary but we’re getting a good one with stocks now turning down.

            Aug 11, 2023 11:56 PM

            I’ve cashed up to 40% because I really have no clues yet, I can jump in quickly but know that money can disappear in minutes if I’m wrong. I can no longer hold while I’m wrong on the direction, I am concerned that rising energy prices will wipe out any positive direction of the markets and profits for the miners.

      Aug 10, 2023 10:24 PM

      The odds of silver hitting $35.00 by the end of the year is about as good as Biden knowing what day it is.

        Aug 10, 2023 10:24 PM

        Bob Hoye showed the same confidence in August 2010 as he went short everything silver especially the miners. By the end of December 2010 silver was 65-70 percent higher. $35 by this December is a relatively modest 53 percent away from today’s close and yes the low and turnaround needs to be soon and followed by a (preferably weekly) close at/near 26 but the potential is clearly there. The quarterly resistance I showed above doesn’t even need 24 for a breakout.
        With the 50 week MA now rising for just 17 weeks it’s 2019 again.

    Aug 10, 2023 10:46 PM

    Trouble in China’s real estate market, add to that the slowdown in their factories and we are into a one two punch for Asia. DT

    Aug 10, 2023 10:53 PM

    Gold doesn’t care if the dollar is going down…
    It will go down too, because it is Gold.

    Aug 11, 2023 11:39 AM

    huge hit by banksters at the 8:30 am HOT PPI numbers…fear…fear …fear

    PPI is hot by 30% in all those under-reported…categories…….corps pass that chit on to us…we increase velocity of spending to get ahead of it all…bullish metals….period…we will see how market players respondo!

    Aug 11, 2023 11:05 AM

    Inflation up, interest rates up, dollar up but just in from the Central banks … Gold down. Eco 101 is again insulted in public. And the crowd roars. ( check back at noon)

      Aug 11, 2023 11:37 AM

      Miners open down for the final knife in the back. Let’s hope a 3 martini lunch gets Walk Street back on track for the close.

    Aug 11, 2023 11:27 AM

    is not stagflation described as flat/stagnate economic growth accompanied along with inflation…yes…..but this is not the 1970’s….we are a big time debtor nation and in continual industrial decline to mention a few probs…..So I think it is fair to expect runaway inflation along with the economic contraction…a depression… etc…is the ultimate safe haven except as currently when silver is so undervalued….the markets will sort this out and back their fear w volume purchases of all things that hold against the currency debasement…imho

    Aug 11, 2023 11:30 AM

    peeps fleeing to the safety of the king…the king dollar…..that will eventually change…aug 24 is the ‘supposed’ release date for brics gold backed currency?

    Aug 11, 2023 11:56 AM

    GLD w 1.5 million share volume…That is large this early….Typical days 5-8 millions…..bottom bars typically have 6.5 millionish..glta

    Aug 11, 2023 11:05 AM

    60/GDX…1st target at 29.80…..Prior the gdx needs to close and hold over the OUL at 29.56….glta

    Aug 11, 2023 11:16 AM

    AGQ….sliver futures /SI up on real larg volume already…Like hald of a normal full days volumes previously…glta

    Aug 11, 2023 11:40 AM

    US GOVT. is going to screw someone today , somehow…. 🙂

    Aug 11, 2023 11:53 AM

    New position in SVM – Silvercorp @ $2.60

    AISC AgEq = $9.46

    Stink bid @ $2.47

    Aug 11, 2023 11:09 AM

    day GDX…improving…8/8 was first sign of reversal w type 2 hammer and today pray-tell today could set-up a bullish engulfing…not a bad week…also note the OUL is above at 29.59…a close above would be a rational adding spot…glta

    Aug 11, 2023 11:30 AM

    Aston Bay doing a slight retracement, so I am accumulating more. Still early in this one, so looking to drill results.

    Aug 11, 2023 11:50 AM

    day UUP…volumes shrinking up-here…A 3 Drive to the top?…possible , butthis 3rd leg is not w perfect time symmetry….so it is not high probability…more likely it hits 1 or 2 top testing…glta

    Aug 11, 2023 11:54 AM

    gdx day…i do not see a breakout day at all…is it possible managers want to wait for the dollar to roll over?….no idea…right now the volume has shrunk and no price expansion…i imagine that if the dollar cracked then the miners would gap up….just not today, sadly…glta

    is it possible managers are waiting for the inevitable market meltdown in general equity?

    Aug 11, 2023 11:40 AM

    gdx 1 minute chart…showing higher lows and higher highs…Very continual steady accumulation…not distribution….this has to be interpreted as bullish…quiet accumulation at low volumes …look how careful the gold traders M.M. are being….not clumsy at all….impressive…caveat…the daily and weekly still are net neutral to bearish regarding basic oscillators….no slam dunk…nope