Weekend Show – Bear Vs Bull Market Discussions For US Markets And Energy

September 23, 2023

Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show. On this Weekend’s Show we focus on a bigger picture look at both US markets and the energy sector (oil and natural gas). After some longer than expected rallies we discuss if the US markets will continue the rollover and if energy will continue to breakout.



Rick Bensignor
Josef Schachter
    Sep 23, 2023 23:54 AM
    NatGas : Grinding North
    Inside Bearish Wedge
    Double Bottom

    Sep 23, 2023 23:50 AM

    Thanks guys for another great week of updates and Conference impressions. Helps a lot. I remember the days when most Conferences were experiencing low attendance and not during the shut down years. This years attendance shows to me an increase in enthusiasm for the metals space and may just be the leading indicator of short-term things to come. Bring it!

    Sep 24, 2023 24:23 AM

    The Dog Days of summer at least as far as the resource market seem to be over for now. This is generally a good time of the season for an uptick, but I am still plenty worried about a market crash coming soon. DT

      Sep 24, 2023 24:51 AM

      What about tax loss selling?

      Will we have an early tax loss selling, like in the last years?

      July? September? October?

      Ex, have you done any tax loss selling recently?

      DOC, are you still buying or are you waiting for a new bottom?

        Sep 24, 2023 24:24 PM

        Hi Thomas, yes I already did much of my tax loss selling this summer, mostly in July and August, but a few in September (similar to what I did last year).

        I’ve been gradually repositioning in the ones I wanted to add back to the portfolio, and there are also some I’ve decided not to add back into my portfolio for now, opting instead to just add more tranches to core positions to lower their overall cost basis for the long game. Also GoGold and Goliath were added as new portfolio positions recently.

          Sep 24, 2023 24:51 PM

          I did most of my tax selling the first part of the year. I knew I was going to have some capital gains from the sale of a house, so I took the losses early. As it stands now, I will have carry over losses which will be used to offset future miner gains if I ever have any again.

            Sep 24, 2023 24:23 PM

            Good strategy Lakedweller2. I have some Uranium mining stock profits, short duration PM swing trade profits, and a some gambling winnings to wash out with the tax loss sales I took, and I figured waiting 31+ days after taking the loss wouldn’t see a radically different lay of the land in the gold and silver stocks, and it really hasn’t. In some cases I actually bought them back even lower than where I took the tax loss, as the stocks continued to pull down during the wash period, so it worked out to get back in at lower levels. I’m debating taking a few more tax losses by year end, but want to see if we get a fall rally first to sell into that strength. We’ll see how things develop in Q4.

        Sep 25, 2023 25:06 AM

        Thomas, I’m slowly accumulating miners at this point. Some of them have further to fall over the next weeks and months especially into the end of the year. I’m mainly looking at those that are producing and technically washed out while waiting for others to hit my technical targets. There is no hurry since sentiment and volume continues to plunge. By the end of 2024, the worse should be over for this sector. I’m staying away from the conventional market since I believe the true secular bear is yet to growl morphing from this cyclical bear. I’m very pleased with Powell and the ultimate plate of “goodies” he will hand to those of us that have been as patient as we have with this recalcitrant precious metal market.

    Sep 24, 2023 24:22 AM

    I always liked listening to Josef Schachter, he has been advising investors in the oil and gas markets for many years. Recently I started buying some energy stocks and they have done well, except for one which I intend to hold. I like this space and it requires some different skill sets from what I have been used to. It all also helps to expand the membrane by getting into unfamiliar territory. DT

      Sep 24, 2023 24:30 PM

      Agreed DT. There are a lot of parallels in the oil & nat gas space to the metals mining stocks as another extractive industry, but there are a few unique nuances to it as well. It is a blessing to get a range of ideas from guests on our show like Josef Schachter, Dan Steffens, John Rubino, and Sean Brodrick in the oil patch.

    Sep 25, 2023 25:01 AM

    The financial sector (XLF) is breaking down vs gold (GLD) which probably bodes well for our miners…

      Sep 25, 2023 25:31 AM

      good work Matthew…It is a pairs world at this juncture…….Dollar by necessity, currently determines gold direction…This GDXU trade I have was entered in 3 tranches…..all i need is 1950 /GC but I may get 1850 first…glta

        Sep 25, 2023 25:38 AM

        UUP vs GLD is at important resistance that if broken could send gold toward your 1850 level…

          Sep 25, 2023 25:22 AM

          true…but…look at the weekly uup chart…prices here and now have 10 fold less volume than the 10/31/22 bar they are rallying into…unheard of volume die off…somethin big is happening…

            Sep 25, 2023 25:22 PM

            I agree which is why I called the resistance just above “important” for UUP:GLD and said that IF broken it could (not “will”) send gold toward your 1850 level. “Toward” is another key word since I think 1900-ish would hold for December gold even if UUP:GLD does break out.

    Sep 25, 2023 25:04 AM

    Like most miners HL looks ready to surprise the bears…

    Sep 25, 2023 25:55 AM

    October gold (chart will update to show today’s action this evening):

    Sep 25, 2023 25:05 AM

    Both the USD and the Canadian dollar are up since the C$ bottomed over 2 weeks ago but the C$ is up almost twice as much as the USD. This development is friendly to our miners and might be a sign that the USD’s strength is really mostly just euro weakness.

    Sep 25, 2023 25:10 AM
    Sep 25, 2023 25:13 AM
    Sep 25, 2023 25:17 AM

    Neither gold nor GLD have touched let alone tested their 50 week MAs this year.

    Sep 25, 2023 25:22 AM

    The new low for SILJ:SLV shows some bullish divergences. We’ll soon know if they mean anything…

    Sep 25, 2023 25:30 PM

    The USD is up about 6.6% since it bottomed in July yet gold is down just 1.4% during the same period. This shows that much of the dollar’s strength has really been euro weakness, smoke and mirrors.