The obvious move for Sibanye would have been to joint venture with PGE but they played it too coy, companies can pay a heavy price for that sort of thinking. They should never have let Glencore get its foot in the door first, I don’t think their management understands the obvious. In the World of commodities even the crown jewels can and do lose out. Seen it happen many times over the years. If Glencore makes a move, I think it will be PGE first and Sibanye second, they won’t want to tip the market off on a penny stock by moving on Sibanye first. DT

Yeah, good point on the anticipation around the capex, and it is an unknown due to how big or small it would need to be made if they built a mill and processing center on-site, versus the much easier path forward of just trucking over next door to process at Sibanye’s facility.

Still, I don’t think retail investors, or even some investment funds (that aren’t always that much more savvy than retail investors when it comes to polymetallic critical minerals deposits), fully grasp just how much metals value there already is at Stillwater West in Nickel, Copper, Cobalt, Palladium, Platinum, Rhodium, Gold, and Chrome. There are plenty of other advanced explorers with resources in the ground that are suffering from ridiculous values as well, so it isn’t isolated to just PGE. It’s just that the low valuation mismatch in Stillwater Critical Minerals is so striking.

I see Glencore being involved in a company like PGE as a net positive, because it reminds Sibanye that they aren’t the only suitor, and because the Glencore team REALLY understands polymetallic deposits. What concerns me more with Glencore is when they spin out non-core assets like they did to Trevali a number of years back, or more recently with Santacruz Silver. Sometimes there are skeletons in the closet or a hard road to go of it when they let non-core projects go. It’s still a big opportunity for the junior acquiring them, and Santacruz is doing much better than Trevali did, but still they are usually fixer uppers. I’m much more keen on Glencore taking a stake and showing interest though, like they have at Stillwater West.

I’m honestly a bit surprised Robert Friedland and the Ivanhoe Mines team isn’t showing more interest in it, considering PGE poached some of their prior key employees, because of it’s striking similarity to the Bushveld complex in South Africa, paired with the fact that Ivanhoe Electric has an option for Brixton’s Hog Heaven in Montana. You’d think the Ivanhoe Mines or Ivanhoe Electric guys would be all over PGE for their Stillwater West project, as it is right in their wheelhouse of focus and expertise.

I spent about 40 minutes in 2 different conversations with the new VP of Exploration (and ex-Ivanhoe Mines guy) Danie Grobler, looking at drill core, discussing potential new geological understandings their team is having, and he was blowing my mind. He is totally stoked about what they’ve been seeing recently in the new N-series cross cutting structures (showing a 2nd geological event bringing in more disturbance and mineralization), and also that they have started seeing chunks of high grade sulfide in their core, showing that the part of the system higher up (that Sibanye has) was grabbed by magma at one point and brought down into their lower part of the system. As a result, their grade may be higher than first anticipated when these sulphide “meatballs” show up in their system. He was very animated about all the drill core he inspected, and about all the places they still have to drill.

Personally, I don’t understand why the company doesn’t have a multi-fold higher valuation on just the resources they’ve already announced to the market, but that is the market we are in and maybe over time more folks will wake up to what they have developing in Montana. I joked with the guys at a breakfast event in Vancouver, that imagine you had a $2 million home for sale for $50,000 and listed it. People would see how divorced that price is from normal market pricing, and just assume “well, something must be wrong with it.” That is what looking at their company valuation is like to me personally, and that doesn’t even factor in their optioning of the other projects like Black Lake/Drayton to Heritage Mining, or their other Kluane project in the Yukon (right next to Nicklecreek Platinum)… which they are getting 0 value for currently.

I’m biased as a shareholder, and they are sponsors here at the KER, but still, when I look at the value proposition they are presenting, it is one of the more confusing disconnects I’m aware of. Oh well, they are cashed up for this year’s drill program, and we’ll see how they continue to grow it further.