Dave Erfle – Gold Price Surge, Asian Demand Soaring, and Junior Miner Momentum
Gold continues to outperform pretty much every asset class, rallying over $100 to surpass $3,400/oz, after a recent quick correction and major Asian markets being closed. Dave Erfle, founder of the Junior Miner Junky, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on gold’s latest surge and what it means for investors in both major producers and junior explorers.
Key Themes Covered:
- Asia driving demand: We break down the resurgence of Chinese and Indian buying, record Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes, and what this eastward shift in pricing power signals for the global gold market.
- Geopolitical catalysts: Ongoing tensions across multiple regions, from the Middle East to Asia, are creating the kind of safe haven bid gold thrives on. On top of that, faith in US government bonds and fiat currencies erodes.
- Gold vs US assets: With US equities underperforming and bonds falling out of favor, gold, and notably gold stocks, are becoming the new capital safe haven.
- The juniors are catching fire: Dave highlights a rotation underway as investors start locking in gains from major miners and redeploying into undervalued developers and PEA-stage companies, many with projects far more valuable at current spot prices than their market caps reflect.
We also explore the role of interest rates, the Fed’s fading influence, institutional inflows into gold ETFs, and the growing disconnect between gold and the broader stock market.
Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave’s investment letter.
Glad I bought Hecla’s crash last week…
https://schrts.co/teUsBEgT
HL:GLD with back-to-back bullish reversal candles…
https://schrts.co/HyInHjqi
Nice line chart! I bought it too
The volume this year has been impressive!
https://schrts.co/MinzzBVc
Yes. The twin dips over the last 30 days both had fairly large volume spikes. I bought both dips. Bolly bands are wide so seems like it could stay down for a while and consolidate, but I also think it could spike back up. The bull is doing all it can to throw folks off. Lots of volatility in this one which makes me believe there is a massive tug-of-war underway with the shorts and strong hands.
The daily BBs are wide but the weeklies are relatively narrow. If something manages to take it lower I’ll be an aggressive buyer at the quarterly BB (currently 3.48). Those BBs are the narrowest they’ve been in 30 years.
The volatile action is sure consistent with a new bull market.
Looks a little bear flagish this morning.
I also show a price gap on the weekly at about 3.75.
CDE has a gap there, too.
Matthew, what do you think of HL’s new CEO who replaced Baker, and the recent deal with DVS? I own DVS and HL.
Bonzo, the new CEO seems more than qualified but I don’t know anything about him beyond what’s posted on the website. The DVS deal seems like a win-win and I’m glad HL was paid in DVS shares. I don’t know the property well enough to determine which party got the better deal but the deal seems fair enough.
I really like the deal from Dolly Varden’s perspective as it is a great bolt on to what they are doing and provides a lot of room for continuation of the trend they have developed. I agree that it is a win-win as Hecla is a large shareholder and is picking up more of Dolly Varden and is probably the most natural suitor for an acquisition of DV. They have indicated as much and were considering purchasing it before they acquired Alexco. I like both companies and own both and will consider purchasing more on pull backs. They are both fairly large holdings. I really like Dolly Varden’s CEO and wonder if they got taken over if he might be tapped to run the whole company although I am not sure how much operational experience he has.
Agreed Charles – this was a mutually beneficial deal for Dolly Varden and Hecla (who now owns a bigger chunk of DV and is the natural suitor, with members on their board and technical committee.).
Dolly Varden has done an excellent job of consolidating this whole land package over the last few years with the biggest score being picking up the Homestake property from Fury Gold, then the acquisition of the other portion of the Big Bulk property they didn’t yet have from Libero Copper, and now strategic move on the surrounding Kinskuch Property from Hecla.
I was expecting HL to acquire DV to consolidate that land, but really it is really Dolly Varden that has been the consolidator of this whole mineralized district in the southern tip of the Golden Triangle. They have been in expansion mode for some time, and now they have the whole enchilada! (well except for Goliath which is nearby too)
Hecla seems fine to up their stake in DV and let their excellent exploration team keep derisking the whole area, as HL is too busy with all their producing mines to do much exploration. That is a wise approach, and when the team at Dolly Varden can push the envelope on drilling and expanding some of the known deposits on the Kinskuch property and build an even larger value proposition, then it likely makes the future acquisition of DV by HL more attractive to a shareholder vote.
The silver miners look a lot more appealing than the gold miners, even short term.
SILJ:GDX
https://schrts.co/ttQdqPBC
SLV leaped above significant resistance and suddenly looks good to go.
https://schrts.co/YkhkXXwe
The usd looks even more bearish than it did a month ago.
https://schrts.co/PaVsSIXT
GLD:SLV finished the day at fork resistance on the 60 minute chart.
https://schrts.co/WwyWisrP
Is the 8 month downtrend in HL versus silver over? My guess is yes.
https://schrts.co/xhBidNfy
hi, Matthew. many out of market now. could this year be like 2016? thank you.
Hi Alex, Tuesday is Matthew’s night out to go to the Badda Bing and check out the eye candy. It will probably be a few more hours before he can respond. LOL! DT 😜😜😜
Hi Alex, the short answer is yes, this year could absolutely be like 2016. The market is on very different fundamental and technical footing but BIG upside potential for our miners IS present and actually far more compelling for a sustainable move higher. The 2016 move was a mean reversion “relief rally” that had no chance of sustaining itself while the current setup is a once or twice in a lifetime opportunity that will launch a multiyear bull market.
SILJ:GLD monthly:
https://schrts.co/DkUArCHv
Gold is up another $100 today; please can we get a day with at least $200. I’ve got my apple cart out of the garage so I can make some money this summer. Maybe I’ll add some roasted chestnuts. LOL! DT
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FNVTm4Bp/
NatGas : COB : More Downside?
(Phantom Gartley)
The dollar is down 69% vs gold in the last 9.3 years.
https://schrts.co/WWhItvdq
The dollar is down a whopping 93% vs gold since March, 2001.
https://schrts.co/uacHzkmA
https://www.tradingview.com/x/17ASnLWL/
DOLLAR : Phantom Gartley Layout
Unfortunately, the post market slam Tuesday, as Gold topped at about 78.6%, calls into focus a potential bearish Gartley formation. Spot*: 3499~3204~3439 (exact 78.6%~3436). If not resolved (3439 broached), primary ABCD targets are 3144 (1:1) and 2997 (1:1.5).
*Bullion Vault (current GLD to Spot multiplier: 10.868).
The gold price needs to correct possibly to the $3200 level and then it will start to move up again. I don’t see that as bearish, that’s healthy. DT
Dryden Gold hits a new discovery!!!!!! DT
Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – May 7, 2025) – Dryden Gold Corp. (TSXV: DRY) (OTCQB: DRYGF) (“Dryden Gold” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce drill results for the new hanging wall discovery on the Elora Gold System in the Gold Rock Camp. The Company first announced this intercept with significant visible gold (“VG”) on April 8. Assays have now confirmed results of 301.67 g/t over 3.90 meters including 1,930 g/t over 0.60 meters and represent a newly discovered hanging wall zone with folded quartz stringer veins hosted in sheared basalts (Figure 1). This newly intercepted hanging wall gold mineralization in hole KW-25-003 is approximately 80 meters from main Jubilee high-grade zone at a true depth of 250 meters (Figure 2).
The market didn’t appreciate Dryden’s news release. How often do you see…………………………. Those are some very high-grade hits! DT
301.67 g/t over 3.9 meters = 30 g/t over 40 meters
1,930 g/t over .6 meters = 193 g/t over 6 meters
Yeah agreed DT. The strong selloff today in Dryden Gold on bonanza-grade gold drill hits is quite puzzling, as I didn’t see anything in the press release not to be incredibly encouraged by. Those are better gold drill hits than the vast amount of gold explorers in existence will ever put out and yet DRY was down nearly 17% on today’s close. (-16.7%).
I’ve got a call set up for late tomorrow afternoon to interview the CEO Trey Wasser, so we can get the update from the boss of Dryden Gold directly, but today’s action made no logical sense at all. Trey has indicated in the past that some games are being played with their stock by larger funds, so maybe that helps explain the counter-intuitive move on the back of what should be perceived as excellent news. Also the stock had run up a lot in anticipation of these assays due to them being rushed for the visible gold contained on the core, and some warrants were in the money, so maybe they sold shares to clip warrants and this selling pressure swamped the markets. Who knows?
>> I guess 301.67 grams per tonne gold over 3.9 meters (a 1,176 gram per meter hole) isn’t enough gold for some people. Haha!
That’s a world-class drill hit and will be one of the better ranked holes in Q2 from any gold explorer.
GDX is looking good.
https://schrts.co/EmRVGXEQ