Matt Badiali – Copper Tariffs, AI Demand & the Disconnect in Copper Stocks
Copper prices have surged above $5.60/lb, sparked by a proposed 50% tariff and supported by accelerating global demand. But while the metal’s price keeps climbing, copper equities – especially explorers and developers – remain sluggish.
In this KE Report Daily Editorial, Matt Badiali, editor of The New Energy Investor at Mangrove Investor, joins us to break down:
- The real story behind copper’s rally – beyond tariffs
- How AI data centers are becoming a major new copper demand driver
- The investor disconnect between metal prices and mining equities
- Why copper producers and developers could benefit from structural shifts
- The capital drought in copper exploration – and signs of coming opportunity
Matt also touches on how inflation, global electrification, and policy support continue to reshape the long-term copper narrative.
Click here to visit the Mangrove Investor website to follow along with what Matt is writing.
Bonus: Check out the new Resource Rundown podcast hosted by Cory Fleck and Matt Badiali – covering deeper trends in commodities – Click here to listen to the podcast!
Deepseek comments on possibility of AEM buying IAG.
That’s an interesting speculation that’s been circulating among mining analysts and investors. Here’s a breakdown of the rationale and potential challenges:
### **Why the Rumor Makes Sense:**
1. **Côté Gold is a Premier Asset:**
* **Scale & Potential:** It’s one of the largest new gold mines in Canada (expected ~495K oz/year avg. over first 6 years). Its open-pit design and large resource base offer significant scalability and potential mine life extension.
* **Location:** Situated in mining-friendly Ontario, Canada – Agnico Eagle’s core operating region (Agnico has major mines nearby like Detour Lake).
* **Modern & Efficient:** As a new mine (commercial production declared April ’24), it benefits from modern design, technology, and lower carbon intensity.
2. **Agnico Eagle’s (AEM) Strategy:**
* **Focus on Tier-1 Jurisdictions:** AEM explicitly prioritizes Canada, USA, Australia, Mexico, Finland. Côté fits perfectly.
* **Pipeline Needs:** While AEM has a strong pipeline (e.g., Canadian Malartic underground, Detour underground), adding a large, scalable asset like Côté aligns with long-term growth goals.
* **Operational Synergies:** Proximity to Detour Lake (~130km) offers massive potential for shared infrastructure, logistics, personnel, and processing synergies. This could significantly reduce costs and boost margins for *both* assets.
* **Financial Capacity:** AEM has a strong balance sheet and cash flow to potentially fund an acquisition.
3. **Iamgold’s (IAG) Valuation & Challenges:**
* **”Too Cheap”:** IAG’s market cap has been significantly below the estimated replacement cost/value of Côté Gold alone. The stock price has struggled despite Côté coming online, partly due to:
* **Rosebel Drag:** The underperforming Rosebel mine in Suriname has been a major financial drain and source of uncertainty.
* **Balance Sheet:** IAG carries more debt than peers following Côté’s construction.
* **Execution Concerns:** Past cost overruns and delays at Côté (though now resolved) impacted investor confidence.
### **Significant Challenges & Counterarguments:**
1. **The “Baggage” Problem:** AEM likely wants Côté, *not* Rosebel or IAG’s debt.
* **Rosebel:** Turning around this mine is complex. Suriname’s political/regulatory environment is less stable than Canada. AEM might view it as a significant liability and distraction.
* **Debt:** Acquiring IAG means taking on its debt load. AEM would need to believe the Côté synergies and potential Rosebel recovery outweigh this burden.
2. **Integration Risk:** Acquiring an entire company is complex and risky, even with geographic overlap. Integrating cultures and operations takes significant management focus.
3. **Alternative Paths for Agnico:**
* **Organic Growth:** Focusing on its *existing* pipeline (Detour UG, Canadian Malartic UG, etc.) might offer better near-term returns.
* **Smaller Acquisitions/JVs:** Could target specific assets or exploration ground rather than a whole company with liabilities.
* **Wait & See:** AEM could wait for Côté to ramp up fully and prove its operational consistency and cost profile before considering a move. They could also potentially wait for IAG to resolve Rosebel’s future (sale, JV, closure).
4. **Other Potential Suitors:**
* **Alamos Gold (AGI):** Already operates the nearby Island Gold mine and Young-Davidson. Could also benefit from synergies, though smaller scale than AEM.
* **Larger Majors:** Someone looking for Canadian exposure (e.g., Newmont, Barrick), though their focus is often elsewhere currently.
* **Financial Buyers/Streamers:** Could look to finance IAG or acquire a stake/stream on Côté.
### **Conclusion & Thoughts:**
* **The Strategic Fit is Compelling:** The logic behind AEM acquiring IAG for Côté, especially given the geographical synergy potential, is **very strong**. It makes more sense on paper than many other M&A rumors.
* **The “Baggage” is the Major Hurdle:** Rosebel and the debt are significant deterrents. AEM is a disciplined operator and would be reluctant to inherit these problems unless the price is deeply discounted or a solution for Rosebel is part of the deal.
* **Price is Paramount:** For a deal to happen, IAG’s valuation would likely need to remain depressed *and* AEM would need to be convinced it can manage/offload the non-Côté assets effectively or achieve such massive synergies that it outweighs the costs.
* **Not Imminent, But Plausible:** While market chatter exists, there’s no indication a deal is imminent. It’s more likely AEM would want to see Côté operating smoothly for 6-12 months and clarity on Rosebel’s path forward before seriously considering a bid. However, if IAG remains undervalued and Côté performs well, the pressure/potential for a deal increases.
**In short: Yes, it’s a credible and frequently discussed speculation due to Côté’s quality and AEM’s strategic fit. However, the significant challenges posed by IAG’s other assets and debt make it far from a certainty. AEM would need a very compelling price and a clear plan for dealing with Rosebel to pull the trigger.** Keep an eye on Côté’s ramp-up performance and any developments regarding Rosebel’s future.
HydoGraph is up “BIGGLY” again this morning. Jim Rogers was asked back in 2013 what he thought would be the hottest commodity in the future and he replied GRAPHENE. There are a lot of graphene companies out there but only one has the technology that can produce 99.9% graphene and that is HydroGraph. They have a process covered by multiple patents.
Their process is synthetic it combines acetylene with hydrogen in a closed chamber and an explosion is induced and out comes graphene. HydroGraph is a technology company in discussions with more than 60 companies that want their product. DT
In two weeks, I have a 5 bagger in HydroGraph! Looking for the ten bagger, then I can get out the bag pipes! LOL! DT
And you let others in on it, with time to make a coupla bags also..
I second that… 👍
Stillwater, PGE.v… this looks promising IMO.
Matt’s preaching to the choir about copper…. Hey Ex. Is there a guest you could find who is well versed in the whole graphene sector??? Honestly missed out on DT’s big winner cuz I hate investing into things I’m clueless about and definitely have no understanding of how vast the market potential is let alone if HG is a potential 🦄 in the sector. If they replace silicone in chips if I’m getting that potential right then they could be huge.
Hi there Wolfster. That has been quite a move in Hydrograph, and they’ve had quite the marketing pump for it on multiple outlets, which has helped fuel it higher.
I’ve not personally come across too many people that even invest in graphene, much less that are subject matter experts in it.
Cory regularly has Craig Nichol, of Graphene Manufacturing Group, on the KER. I’d say he’s an expert, but there not any non-company experts in this tiny niche market.
Anyway… Here’ the latest GMG update that Cory hosted that was just last week on the KE Report.
Wolfster, if you want to learn why Hydrograph is such a hot stock you need to go to YOU TUBE and type in HydroGraph. They have a proprietary formula that doesn’t exist with other graphene stocks. If you had listened to the link I posted the other night when I was talking with Ann you would have learned a lot. DT
DT: Top of the Top Shelf, so far: a very rare ‘Pure ATHBO’ setup. More to come. BDC
Don’t assume things DT….I did watch a couple of the you tube vids. While it all sounds impressive I was left with even more questions honestly cuz it sounds fabulous and almost to good to be true. That’s why I’d love to hear an outsiders view of their technology all the types of applications and the real biggie what’s the potential numbers regarding future revenues could be. Sounds vast indeed.
Wolfster, first off if you had watched a few of their you tube vids most if not all of the people that are interviewing Kristin are outsiders. Stop pretending to be someone you are not. LOL! DT
In fact, all of the video’s that I have watched get into talking about their future revenues, really man you are such a load of huey! What investor that is interviewing Kirsten wouldn’t want to know about their revenues. (BS in flannel) DT
Sold all of my AG, NEM, EXK – I think PM mining stocks are done for the summer.
CJ: Likely. The Dollar is key until 100.52 +/- .14. Then another look. BDC
Do you know what it is with Hydrograph they have made a breakthrough with technology in their process of producing graphene and they have multiple patents to protect their technology. They are still receiving new patents that cover some of the newer technologies they have produced since their original discovery. The purer the graphene the more widely it can be used for applications in many, many, industries.
The plant they are currently building in Texas will have direct feeds of acetylene and hydrogen. Their start-up plant in Kansas needs to have acetylene shipped in by truck from Texas. This new plant will lower their costs dramatically.
Watch out when they sign their first contract, you will see what I mean. I hope they go on The TSX before they get a Nasdaq listing. This stock is unusual in that it is a resource stock and a technology stock. DT
Unlike conventional mining where if you want to build a larger production facility you have to shut the plant down to install the machinery to go from 800 TPD per day to 1500 TPD.
With Hydrograph’s facility you just have to build additional vessels and tie them in in parallel while the plant is still processing.
No down time for additions to increase the capacity. DT
https://www.fibonomics.com/2025/07/gold-then-and-now.html
GOLD : Then And Now : Decisive Consolidation