Marc Chandler – Inflation’s Next Move, Fed Cuts, Dollar Trend & What to Watch
Inflation is rising, but the Fed’s next moves hinge more on the labor market than the latest price prints. Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market, joins us to discuss:
- Inflation check: CPI roughly in line but trending higher; PPI surprised to the upside. Mark notes this likely points to a firmer core PCE later this month – but the question is persistence, not just direction.
- Fed priorities: Despite hotter inflation data, Powell has linked policy to labor-market balance (unemployment rate over payroll headlines). Markets overshot on cut odds after weak jobs data; expectations have since drifted back toward the Fed’s guidance.
- Cuts & QT: Baseline view is ~50 bps of easing this year, with potential messaging around slowing/ending QT as part of reducing overall restrictiveness.
- Markets vs. data: Equities keep shrugging off noise (tariffs/geopolitics). Retail sales resilience underscores still-solid demand, tempering the case for aggressive cuts.
- U.S. dollar: The downtrend has resumed after a brief short-covering rally. For a big-picture read, watch U.S. rates more than cross-country differentials.
- Near-term catalysts: Expect a quieter macro week – flash PMIs and Jackson Hole (labor focus) ahead; the next jobs report is the true potential game-changer for September policy odds.
Good reference point Mathew…………stocks firming with metals going sideways is sometimes a good omen……..nice Breakout pop on BYN today as well……$30/ounce on just the 5 mill ounces just under a gram seems to be good value……..economics later in the year should see a good re-rate !
I agree Larry; the miners don’t tend to do as well when the metals steal the show. Another good sign was the CAT:GDX top a few weeks ago. It had a 4 month bounce following the April low and that bounce ended right where it should have…
https://schrts.co/tZBcEeKt
Don’t know how these silver mining companies are operated. EXK swing into a quarterly loss. What gives? I thinking all but a few silver miners (PAAS. AG) are practically crap companies.
All miners are crap companies to some degree because of the nature of the business. You have highly cyclical metals prices, depleting resources, political risks, foreign currency risk, etc, etc.
From their website, I don’t see anything terribly unusual under the circumstances. However, I don’t own it anymore so I haven’t taken a close look.
“Adjusted net loss was $9.2 million compared to adjusted net loss of $1.0 million in Q2 2024, largely due to the operating loss from Terronera during the commissioning phase and higher depreciation and tax costs.”
NVDA is stuck at a support/resistance line (currently resistance) that proved itself two years ago.
https://schrts.co/qjImAQuJ
IPT is ready to smoke SILJ again.
https://schrts.co/WIGZEpgA