Marc Chandler – The Dollar’s Peak, Metals Volatility, Next Week’s CPI and Jobs Data
In this editorial, we are joined by Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and Editor of the Marc to Market website. Marc provides a deep dive into the shifting dynamics of the global currency markets, analyzing whether the recent US Dollar bounce has reached its limit and what the technical “outside day” patterns are signaling for the week ahead.
We explore the “Sell America” narrative, the mechanics of dollar-hedged equity trades, and why Marc remains skeptical of the “uncurrency” argument regarding gold’s rise against fiat. With a data-heavy week on the horizon, we break down what to expect from the upcoming US employment report and CPI figures.
Click here to visit Marc’s site – Marc To Market – https://www.marctomarket.com/
For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:
- The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/
- Shad’s resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/
Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
Several charts help to explain the severity of the drop but, like this one:
https://schrts.co/fcZXCcKH
But I don’t think we’ve seen the top.
That is yet to be seen but even though, by looking at that long shooting star indicates silver is going to chop chop several months before any significant moves up.
That’s the part I’m wondering about. The resumption of the vertical action is still technically possible. On the sixth trading day following the 2011 top, silver was down 33 percent. On the sixth trading day following this top, silver was down 47 percent. In 2011, it took 5 days to close below the 50 day MA, the same as this time. However, in 2011, it took 52 trading days to close above the 50 day MA again whereas this time it did so on the 6th day. The percentage drop that we had in just 6 days took 104 days to match in 2011. There was also much more widespread confidence back then. This time, we’ve had plenty of top-calling all the way up as well as small investor selling at much lower levels than even the $64 low yesterday.
The last time PSLV traded at any premium to NAV was over 4.5 years ago. The best it achieved on this run happened January 26th at 1.65% BELOW NAV. Prior to the 2011 top, it hit a premium of 25%. The 2016 top came with a nearly 6% premium and the peak premium of 3.67% in 2020 happened on the day of the crash low when silver hit $11.64(!). Sentiment has been massively different this time because all residual hope from the last bull has finally been completely wrung from the market. A premium at the bottom of any crash now is unthinkable. Interestingly, the Premium/Discount to NAV plunged to negative 10.57% two days before last week’s top. Silver hit $113 that day so that huge discount to NAV would have looked extremely strange to anyone who noticed it. Two days before the 2011 top, the Premium/Discount had fallen sharply from its 25% high but was still at a 14% premium.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/A6hl49Bk/
DOLLAR : Much Too Perfect!
Silver finished the day over 21 percent off its low.
https://schrts.co/kHGsuSJd
The Silver:Gold breakout that’s been delayed:
https://schrts.co/RbXBKPkg
Matthew put together this quarterly chart sometime ago. Looks like silver already peaked.
https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=%24SILVER&id=p28068589740&a=1143019536