Joel Elconin – Markets Defy Geopolitical Tensions as Earnings Season Kicks Off
In this Daily Editorial, we are joined by Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the PreMarket Prep show and Founder of the Stock Trader Network. With major indices hitting record territory, Joel provides a technical and fundamental deep dive into why this market seems decoupled from global conflict and focused entirely on growth.
Key discussion points:
- Market Resilience and All-Time Highs: A look at the remarkable V-shaped recovery in April following a turbulent March, and why the market appears to have moved past geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Earnings Season Expectations: Early insights into Q1 reports, focusing on whether mega-cap tech companies can justify their massive capex spending through tangible AI results and increased profitability.
- The “Lockout Rally” Dynamics: Analyzing the current “buy the dip” mentality where shallow pullbacks are quickly absorbed, leaving sidelined investors waiting for entry points that may not come.
- Sector Strength and Rotation: Evaluating the shift from defensive staples back into risk-on growth, including the rebound of software stocks.
- Banking and Private Credit Health: A review of recent bank earnings from major players and a discussion on why fears regarding a private credit collapse have yet to materialize in the broader financial system.
Stocks Mentioned: SPY, QQQ, NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, DAL, JPM, BAC, WFC, ARES
Click here to visit Joel’s PreMarket Prep website – https://www.premarketprep.com/
Click here to visit the Stock Trader Network – https://www.stocktradernetwork.com/
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Investment Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.
https://tinyurl.com/5n7hzyze
Rockin’ With Options!
So called experts are just that. Nobody knows anything .. Even Rick Ackerman was saying stocks have topped and gonna fall in abyss.
CJ: 50/50 it’s a Head Fake Top. Note the Dollar gap. BDC
https://tinyurl.com/57n3mrp6
The EDGE (MAGS) : Top?
Timing is everything when making money in stocks. One could be right 3-4 months from now.
CJ: If things turn South, it will be Fast & Soon. BDC
Fear is the most reliable bullish indicator ever invented.
https://tinyurl.com/2tatk7wk
Yup! Top Shelf Topped?
Btw. Nothing wrong when you pull up monthly S&P chart. This was a garden variety correction that scared the bejesus out of people.
CaliJoe, dollar destruction made it seem like a garden variety pullback but pricing in real money shows the truth. The SPX got crushed last year and topped over 4 years ago. What you’re enjoying is a massive papering-over of reality.
SPX:GLD weekly:
https://schrts.co/SjZdZayW
We have never witnessed sufficient dollar destruction to cause a multi-year divergence like the one we see today but I’d been expecting it for 20 years. Take a look at the previous stock bull and you’ll see that the SPX topped in early 2000 whether you priced it in dollars OR gold. The same is true of the August, 1987 top, stocks topped in dollars and gold at the same time. Today, US stocks are benefitting from global safe haven flows but will still (continue to) massively underperform the real safe havens.
In true stock bull markets, stocks trounce gold. It happened in the 1950s and ’60s and it happened in the 1980s and ’90s but it’s not happening now. The Dow topped in 2018 and the SPX topped in 2021. Price either one in gold on a 75 or 100 year chart to get the right idea about this market.
If you don’t want more exposure to the true bull market in gold/silver, I’d consider buying this pullback in oil. Hopefully it makes it back into the $60s but even the $70s would cause me to buy oil related stocks. Oil is going higher than the average Joe can comprehend regardless of any ceasefires.
Thanks for the excellent post Matthew…
You can’t slap a Gold Buffalo on Amazon checkout and have Prime deliver your groceries tomorrow lol But I get your point. Nvidia up 1,950% over five years. Tesla up 881% over five years.
These are enormous gains relative to gold. So over a 5‑year window, Mag7 absolutely crushed gold.
CaliJoe, I have to admit, I’m shocked that you would cite gold’s lack of use as a currency as meaningful in any way. Gold is money, dollars are not. Paper claims (debt) can act as currency but never as money. Gold was replaced by dollars in this contrived, anti-free market, Marxist monopoly monetary system. I’m not surprised that the herd doesn’t get it, but you? Gold has never stopped behaving exactly as it should despite the silly wizards behind the curtain. As for the mag7, they aren’t the market and they weren’t the subject of this conversation. But they sure have been used to paint a better picture of the market. Still, it’s worth noting that NVDA fell 55% vs gold from its ’24 high and then fell 40% vs gold from last year’s high. Right now, it looks ready to outperform gold again. TSLA topped in 2021 vs gold and then fell 76%. Today it is still down 64%.
The bottom line is that you would have seen the crash in stocks if the dollar didn’t get smoked in order to hide it. Almost everyone today thinks nominal gains are real gains which is probably why there’s so little regard for gold in a portfolio. The herd has been anesthetized. There’s simply no reason to be in stocks if stocks can’t beat a piece of metal with no counterparty risk. Stock-picking is different than buying the market, obviously.
MSFT, similar to the sector it occupies, smoked gold from 2011 to 2021 and then built a giant multi-year top vs gold. After dropping 65%, it is now also ready for some relief but new highs vs gold are probably not coming in our lifetime.
Since inflation is ultimately a very bad thing for the economy, it is also ultimately a very bad thing for stocks. So don’t expect stocks to remain so wildly overpriced indefinitely. I believe they will break down against the dollar this year and there will probably be virtually no bears to be found anywhere. The signs are there and building.
https://schrts.co/bNruUbWP
MSFT fell 80% against the HUI (the HUI rose 419% against MSFT):
https://schrts.co/yFUaXBYW
SILJ ran into some fork resistance today but I doubt it will be held back for long.
https://schrts.co/aDHjAZhz
SILJ also hit important channel resistance:
https://schrts.co/TPqwqWRY
M: Went short via ZSL. Will hold some. BDC
Matthew, can you do a spring review of your quarterly silver chart pls?
I haven’t touched this one since last October and last quarter’s close sure validated it:
https://schrts.co/zfZeTImR
This one shows resistance around $95:
https://schrts.co/rtSxqfFr
Great charting, Thanks Matthew.
This fork spans 40 years and gave us the high in January. My comments on the chart are from 2024 when silver was around $30:
https://schrts.co/iAhPmwxy
This fork really explains the January high since it is based on the 2008 crash low, the 2011 bull market high and the 2020 panic low (the lowest low of ALL time in real terms):
https://schrts.co/RcFBjHVC
This fork begins at the 1993 low of $3.53. Resistance in Q4 will be about $185:
https://schrts.co/hErwksYw
NVDA had all the reasons to fill the gap around $160 but didn’t. Next consolidating region is likely to be around $225-230
https://schrts.co/GcSRdJNC
https://www.tradingview.com/x/8j1lTzNI/
DOLLAR : Bottom Until Gap Fill?