Looking towards 2016 – Hour 1
Hour 1:
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- Segment 1: Factor LLC, Founder and Technical Trader, Peter Brandt is loving these markets so far this year.
- Segment 2: John Kasier of the Bottom Fishing Report is back on the show to discuss the rise in precious metals stocks for the start of 2016
- Segment 3: Ronald-Peter Stoferle, Managing Partner Fund Manager at Incrementum AG, talks about the turbulent start to 2016 for investors.
- Segment 4: As a part of our legend series, Marc Faber is with us to chat about the economies around the world.
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Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
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Hmm what does it mean? I won’t dare to buy the share though.
I don’t think you need to be concerned about the shares.
I would suspect they will be restricted to Saudi citizens for the IPO – if the IPO ever occurs.
My 2cts.
LPG
CFS,
I discussed this privately w. Richard yday.
Question: how do you monetize a $4 trillion asset?
My 2 cts.
LPG
My question too. Maybe they will start with a small fraction ans sell out more and more to relieve the pressure on the kingdom.
Let’s say they IPO a “small” fraction.
So let’s say 5%.
How much is 5% of $4Trn? –> $200bn.
Now, this begs the following question:
How many people have checked how many IPOs have raised more than $20bn in the WHOLE HISTORY of stock markets ANYWHERE ?
How many people have compared $200bn vs. the size of the Saudi Banking system.
Coz liquidity matters…. just sayin’.
So some might say: they’re gonna sell 1%. That’ll be a $40bn IPO.
And to that, I will say: I doubt a 1% IPO will occur. Coz it will look “silly”. And a $40bn MIGHT still be an issue for liquidity for a country like KSA.
My 2cts.
LPG
Again worth more than 2 cents!
Re: Middle East. Iran.
What is it with US Democrat Presidents.
Carter makes treaty with Pakistan giving them Nukes. Clinton makes treaty with N. Korea giving them nukes. Obama makes treaty with Iran… giving them ?….you guess!.
CFS:
Really good question. You left out Johnson, Nixon, Carter, Regan, Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama giving Israel nukes.
We have to guess what Obama gave Iran because according to our 16 intelligence agencies spending billions of dollars a year that all agree Iran has no nuclear weapons program. You aren’t up to your old tricks of spreading disinformation again, are you? I mean, you are smart enough to know that Iran never had nukes and has no plans for nukes.
So why don’t we talk about the only country in the middle east with nuclear weapons, some 400 of them?
Bob, have you ever “Son of Hamas”?
Al:
I have not seen the movie. Are you familiar with the WSJ article about “How Israel Helped Spawn Hamas?”
“Hamas, to my great regret, is Israel’s creation,” says Mr. Cohen, a Tunisian-born Jew who worked in Gaza for more than two decades. Responsible for religious affairs in the region until 1994, Mr. Cohen watched the Islamist movement take shape, muscle aside secular Palestinian rivals and then morph into what is today Hamas, a militant group that is sworn to Israel’s destruction.
Instead of trying to curb Gaza’s Islamists from the outset, says Mr. Cohen, Israel for years tolerated and, in some cases, encouraged them as a counterweight to the secular nationalists of the Palestine Liberation Organization and its dominant faction, Yasser Arafat’s Fatah. Israel cooperated with a crippled, half-blind cleric named Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, even as he was laying the foundations for what would become Hamas. Sheikh Yasmin continues to inspire militants today; during the recent war in Gaza, Hamas fighters confronted Israeli troops with “Yassins,” primitive rocket-propelled grenades named in honor of the cleric.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123275572295011847
Israel’s 70 year policy of Divide and Conquer in the Middle East has left everywhere from Libya to Pakistan a smoking ruin and will soon destroy Israel itself. In case after case, Israel created their own enemies out of whole cloth.
When the 28 countries in the EU figure out the 60 million refugees created from the total wreckage of the Middle East is going to destroy the EU, they are going to turn on Israel. The only way to solver the refugee problem is to stop making refugees.
Not a movie Robert, but a book.
I am not sure there is much disagreement between us anymore, by the way.
Al:
I will read it. You have a reading assignment of your own.
Email it to me again and I will start tonigh’ It is in my email system but you could save me some time.
Glad to realize you’re in fine form Bob ! 🙂
Best,
LPG
Re: Part 1,
Brandt had a small brain fart near end of discussion. He mixed gold, which he is long from a trading perspective, with oil, which he is decidedly bearish. It’s oil that could go to $16 (he corrects himself right at the end of his comments). So don’t have a heart attack if you are bullish about gold.
Thanks as always guys. I live John Kaiser’s picture of small well managed gold stocks resembling popcorn before it pops!
Yep. Claude & Richmont & Northern Star Resources were some of the first to pop.
I am not so sure we have really seen capitulation in the gold market yet. Even in the miners and despite how far they have fallen the trudge down has been more of a long agonizing erosion. But when have we seen panic selling? Or have many of those 1200 worthless gold stocks on the TSX withered and blown away yet despite the fact 75% of them have negative working capital and crappy properties? To me a capitulation is more than just bearish extremes in sentiment. It must be matched with a repulsion from a sector, not a record number of Hedge Fund long positions in silver as we are now seeing nor a new growth spurt in GLD holdings. So no, we have not seen capitulation is either gold or silver yet. There are still far too many investors preparing for what they think will be a big price recovery during 2016 and volumes continue to be respectable in the ETF’s like GDX and GDXJ. I am developing serious doubts lately that even if we do see a sector recovery that it will be anything more than another dead cat bounce. And if that is the case then gold could again finish 2016 lower than 2015’s closing price much to the dismay of those who remain devoted to this class of investing. We will know more once gold finally drops below the psychologically important level at 1000. I have zero doubts we get there this year. And it is then that a real capitulation can finally begin and panic selling take place as those who have held losing positions these past few years finally throw in the towel and admit tot themselves that it could take many more years for gold to ever see 1900 dollars again.
I gotta agree, bird.
The question we have to ask ourselves Bobby is if resources and gold keep falling and stay down then what will we do to stay actively invested in a market that looks like it will now deflate on all fronts at once.
It was fine and good when only commodities were getting hit but once stocks and property start their correction from excess valuations there will be precious few areas to invest in that feel familiar to most people.
There is an assumption that as stocks fall and interest rates rise that precious metals will see performance. I think that assumption needs to be challenged. The technicals on gold and silver are not particularly exciting at the moment other than prospects for a continuation of this current bounce.
In fact, as I pointed out yesterday, the picture on DUST is warning that we could yet see a very nasty sell-off come late February or early March. Well that’s weird. Have we not been told a million times by the gold cult that metals will rise as stocks fall?
Instead it is looking like miners will fall ALONG with the market if there is much validity to how so many have recently pierced their upper bolllinger bands (and that includes GDX and GDXJ).
So it look like Doc is going to be correct that metals and miners are not going anywhere fast and my own bullishness recently is possibly delusional!
BM:
Maybe we have had capitulation. Minco Silver has $1 a share in cash, about 60 million ounces of silver in the ground and sells for about $.45 a share. Silvercorp produces about 5 million ounces of silver a year at a profit even with $14 silver and has an enterprise value of about $14 million.
Capitulation is when prices can’t possibly get any cheaper. While I totally agree with you on the walking dead there are some giant values in the market right now.
Yes Mr Moriarty I totally agree with your last sentence.
BOB………..do you own MINCO SILVER?…..thanks….and appreciate ………
FFM:
I don’t because I follow some stocks that have even more potential. Minco is money in the bank at worst regardless the price of silver
BOB………thanks…….appreciate
Capitulation is now occurring. The odds of a sudden down draft are very low—-it’ll continue to be a slo mo move down without any fanfare when the bottoms are reached in the PMs and PM stocks. The same holds true for the topping of the conventional market—no blow off phase but just a rollover deterioration of deafening silence.
Bob, A lot more room for prices to drop from here. Stocks can go to 0. Physical have not capitulated, I am not sure how low that they can go, I just remember my $14.00 silver from the 80’s, It took a long tumble. Capitulation will be easy to recognize as there will be very few buyers.
Bobby:
As a practical matter stocks cannot go to zero. But as a practical matter they can go to infinity.
Currently all silver produced is consumed by industry. Some existing investment is also squeezed out. The amount of silver used is not going down. It is the above ground silver which is used to subsidize the industry for decades except three years around 2010. Lower price will increase consumption and reduce supply. Paper contract have effect of draining investment silver but they can not be used in industry. Some day when existing silver depletion is no longer doable, price has to go up to balance supply and demand like a few years ago.
Industry does not capitulate. They buy cheap just like people want sale. It is the investors who capitulate. In silver the net investment demand for physical has been negative for decades and governments have sold out their large stockpiles.
+1 Bob
LPG – Auto-repeat mode
Seg 1………I would agree with Peter on CNBC, OIL…..if , silver can trade for under 14, then oil can certainly trade in the low 20’s…….And he is LONG, so, I like his call…………..jthelong
Jerry is CNBC still on the air?
GOOD question……………..if, it is I have not watched it since 2001
I might have to check the date again……..but, it has been a long time.
me either.
I agree with John K that picking early “poppers” will make money. There was plenty of opportunity to make money in the last bull and I expect the next one to be larger and longer. If a person doesnt hit the first “poppers” no need to worry.
Im guessing the most money to be made will be in shares that sell for under 5cents right now.
Not to say ones selling right now for under a dollar wont have nice gains, 10-20 baggers isnt anything to sneeze at. lol
As we move along companies with nice lookin drill results will get back to being 5-10 baggers too.
No rush like a gold rush.
Completely agree, bb
BB, Al and all:
For what it’s worth, just my opinion, but John Kaiser is probably the smartest writer out there. That’s not the same as stock picking and everyone has their own opinion of who does that well but when John K writes anything, you should read. He’s brilliant.
I have known John for a long time and I listen to what he says.
Did you ever talk with his assistant who had a PhD in Middle Eastern history from Stanford? A truly decent and brilliant man!
I do really respect John Kaiser as a veteran in this space, and he has a very grounded perspective. It was good to hear him back on the show, but yes, he is a great writer.
Everyone in this first hour weekend show was great to listen to.
Gold is up about 2% this week and 2% this past month. No reason to be excited.
Gold is up 4.11% for the week. This gains plenty of significance when you consider how world stock markets performed. Gold is worth 11% more Dow in just one week and is a daily and weekly chart BUY on good volume — highest weekly in months.
Good point Matthew
Gold:Dow
http://schrts.co/y67Yhn
Gold daily:
http://schrts.co/y152rT
Gold:Dow daily:
http://schrts.co/XTQcdv
Thanks for the charts Matthew.
Hope all’s well & Best to you as always.
LPG
Matthew – Great point about the value of Gold priced in the DOW. Nice.
I also liked your chart of Gold priced in the CRB on the other weekend blog. Good stuff.
This question is for Doc.
What do you think of Exeter? I own a very large position in this stock.
Do you think we should accumulate more? What are the odds for this company’s stock to move higher? In one of the past threads, you mentioned you also own Exeter.
Thanks Doc.
Here’s an interesting one. Gold has now tripled versus oil since the summer of 2013 and looks like it could be starting a blowoff that takes it to over 40 barrels per ounce.
Those who have plenty of gold should fade the whole move, in my opinion. (And buy gold and silver stocks, of course.)
Then again, it was not too long ago that a pre1965 dime could buy a gallon of gas. Today even with gas @ $1.99/ gallon, it will only buy you 1/2 gallon. Hmmmm, this is the difference between short term and long term thinking.
Here, we have gold priced in the Goldman Sachs Industrial Metals Index:
http://schrts.co/CyvKhl
Gold could gain another 50-60% versus the index. Could, not will.
Gold is worth more CRB today than it was at $1923/oz in September, 2011. The price of gold in dollars says a lot more about the dollar than it does about gold! Only lone wolves and a few feral sheep seem to understand this.
Gold:CRB at parabolic support:
Silver:
http://schrts.co/03V1cx
Canadian dollar:
http://schrts.co/d8Jn90
Gold performed better than TLT last week (4.11% vs. 2.78%):
Doesn’t anyone think it’s just a little bearish for the dollar that it closed the week down and looked ugly every day… http://schrts.co/MssIbF
…Despite stocks stocks tanking 6%?
http://schrts.co/ecsRBl
The opposite happened back in 2008…
http://schrts.co/yvCQ2P
If, btw, anyone doubts that the Dow and S&P will take out the 200 week MA, I think the NYSE composite index is giving us a glimpse into the near future:
http://schrts.co/Beq1vH
************ PLEASE NOTE: BIG AL THE THREADS POSTED ON HOUR 2 ARE OUT OF SYNC ************
When you post on Hour 2 they are not being posted in time order!
Maybe because there are over 300 posts…………..overload?
They delete what they don’t like and after that the threads don’t follow in order.
who is deleting?
Mark……..we had over 700 one time, so that is not valid……….jmho
******** Well, well, well, here we are, and it’s week No.2 and things once again are not looking good in China down almost 5%.
Shanghi markets closed down well over 5%………looks like the start of another down week, Hong Kong markets down as well.
Re: Part 4.
Saudi Arabia is considering selling part of ARAMCO……potential valuation of whole conpany about $4 trillion……they are not about to go bankrupt as a country!