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The negative data points out today only impacted the US Dollar

March 28, 2016

For the market wrap today we are joined by Chris Temple and Doc. There was a number of negative data points released today that the equity markets shrugged off but the US Dollar did move down. We take a look at the trends (albeit boring) in oil and gold but there are still opportunities available.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
97 Comments
    CFS
    Mar 28, 2016 28:39 PM

    I was expecting a slow day……..Europe is on holiday!

    Youse guys are just too US-centric!

      Mar 28, 2016 28:26 PM

      If I was too US-centric, I would not have indicated my belief that the US $ downside is limited due to greater problems and the desire to cheapen currencies elsewhere.

    Mar 28, 2016 28:39 PM
    Mar 28, 2016 28:45 PM

    Whaaaa? You might have to put up with an ad before the interview, but Jeffrey Christian comments really, really, really, really need to be taken in.

    http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=837393

      Mar 28, 2016 28:55 PM

      Jeffrey Christian is KEYSER SOZE ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYXXhn9fMYs

        Mar 28, 2016 28:06 PM

        Is Keyser Soze still alive and suppressing the gold price?

          Mar 28, 2016 28:18 PM

          GOD ! Carry human solles and the gold price ! The price is the problem Fiat price is you’re dependents to the Keyser ! God you’re money is GOLD !

            Mar 28, 2016 28:42 PM

            Mr. T. – That is Franky’s way of saying yes.

            Mar 28, 2016 28:53 PM

            Thanks for the translation!

            Mar 28, 2016 28:34 PM

            🙂

      Mar 28, 2016 28:21 PM

      Pillsbury dough boy for the cabal in reviewing the goals and objectives for the central banks failed to mention their principle task – to keeps their banks and owners satisfied, content and propped up.

      Mar 28, 2016 28:26 PM

      Mouthpiece jeff………..

    CFS
    Mar 28, 2016 28:51 PM

    Sure There are some easy answers.

    CUT the corporation tax, SCRAP the EPA, or at a minimum put a sunset provision on most regulations as a routine procedure. Take away the President’s pen.
    Won’t happen, of course, but there are lots of actions that would help.

      Mar 28, 2016 28:28 PM

      CFS, I feel like we are dueling banjos.

        Mar 28, 2016 28:31 PM

        Like an elder brother, I look up to you and you wisdom/ understanding.

        Mar 28, 2016 28:53 PM

        “dueling banjos”…………..funny

        Mar 28, 2016 28:13 PM

        Dueling Banjos – From the movie Deliverance……

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myhnAZFR1po

          Mar 28, 2016 28:21 PM

          Was that recorded in Jellico Tenn…………

            Mar 28, 2016 28:23 PM

            Yep. Filmed in Tennessee. That was me dancing in the background. 😮

            Mar 28, 2016 28:27 PM

            😮 no……………….

            Mar 28, 2016 28:28 PM

            Lookin good………….

            Mar 28, 2016 28:32 PM

            That got me inspired, so I just hit the moonshine in the kitchen for good measure (wink)

            Mar 28, 2016 28:38 PM

            watch it or they will be calling you mr. moon beam…………

            Mar 28, 2016 28:43 PM

            To da moon……..

            Mar 28, 2016 28:21 PM

            Ex, Virtuoso Par Excellence!

            Mar 28, 2016 28:37 PM

            Much appreciated.

    Mar 28, 2016 28:51 PM

    I hope everyone here has the minimum of 12.5% of investments in the actual metals upwards to 28.28%. Ecclesiastes 11:1-2

    Mar 28, 2016 28:03 PM

    Ok, so I’ve been saying fir a while that a Yuan de-peg will affect valuations around the world, and, like Hendrey maintains, we’ll wake up one day and find the Yuan devalued. What auspicious date would the politburo chise to finally capitulate their Yuan forex intervention, much like the Swiss central bank?

    May Day

      Mar 28, 2016 28:04 PM

      Autocorrection off

    Mar 28, 2016 28:33 PM

    Doc, Chris….I agree with both of you that trading oil and gold is just going to be a mugs game for awhile. For the moment I am staying away from both because they are somewhat non-directional and indecisive. Just like watching paint dry is a great expression. I expect a slow grind down.

    Mar 28, 2016 28:52 PM

    America hits rock bottom………….In Richmond, Ca……govt. paying youths $1000 not to shot people……….zerohedge.

    Mar 28, 2016 28:01 PM

    What to Watch For in Gold & Gold Stocks
    03/25/2016 | Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

    http://thedailygold.com/what-to-watch-for-in-gold-gold-stocks/

      Mar 28, 2016 28:02 PM

      Precious Metals Market Update: Support Targets for Gold Stocks. (VIDEO update)
      3/24/2016 – Jordan Roy-Byrne

      http://palisaderadio.com/precious-metals-market-update-support-targets-for-gold-stocks-3242016/

      Mar 28, 2016 28:04 PM

      Don’t make us read a bad report………..just tell us the outcome… 🙂

        Mar 28, 2016 28:17 PM

        Just watch the video and Jordan can show you where the retracement levels are.

        Good charts & other pretty pictures for those that don’t like to read 😉

          Mar 28, 2016 28:22 PM

          😮 no…………

            Mar 28, 2016 28:23 PM

            just kidding…………thanks for the post

            Mar 28, 2016 28:34 PM

            It doesn’t look like Jordan expects too bad of a correction, but those support levels may be good to watch in GDX, GDXJ, and HUI, for when to add a bit to the miners.

            Mar 28, 2016 28:39 PM

            I’M watching the HUI

            Mar 28, 2016 28:02 PM

            Got a great acronym for H.U.I. Frank?
            Let er rip buddy.

            Mar 28, 2016 28:38 PM

            If Jordan’s theory about the HUI starting to track the 2008 rise, then it will be fun to watch.

            Mar 29, 2016 29:02 AM

            humor under integrity H.U.I.

    Mar 28, 2016 28:03 PM

    The Fed’s Loose Lips Helping To Swamp Economic Ship (Weekend VIDEO special)
    March 24, 2016 – Gary Wagner

    http://thegoldforecast.com/video/fed%E2%80%99s-loose-lips-helping-swamp-economic-ship

    Mar 28, 2016 28:06 PM

    One thing worse than loose lips are fat lips in a car with the windows down……..

    Mar 28, 2016 28:10 PM

    If oil is going to go down why wouldn’t it take down the base metal miners also?

      Mar 28, 2016 28:18 PM

      It will.

        Mar 28, 2016 28:19 PM

        But I only expect a mild pullback in both and we already started the dips last week.

          Mar 28, 2016 28:37 PM

          20 dollar oil is in the cards. I have the charts and I think can prove it. A shit storm is coming and the damned thing is such a deflationary bust that it will ruin all the good charting anyone here feels they can muster. Charts are great and all but they can also turn on a dime and dish out the unexpected.

          I feel sick about what is coming. And I really don’t want to depress anyone here with the reasons or the details. Sorry I mentioned it.

    Dan
    Mar 28, 2016 28:55 PM

    Good show, glad to be in a Gary Savage-free, bubble phase delusion free zone.

      Mar 28, 2016 28:10 PM

      He has called for a bubble phase many times but the market looks dead at these levels with no buyers left after the shorts have covered.

        Mar 28, 2016 28:41 PM

        It does seem to be a peculiar call he is making and all the more odd as we learned just yesterday that even UBS was saying the S&P is at its most overbought levels since 2009 based on their metrics.

        The UBS chart
        http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/buyback-3.jpg

        But Gary writes that he uses different tools such as cycles, sentiment, COTS and the like that catch turning points everyone else misses. Not sure the folks over at UBS would agree unless those analysts are still in diapers.

        Oh wait…those guys are Muller and Riesner. Here is a quote from the Stockman article yesterday:

        “When Muller and Riesner speak up, the investment community listens, as these two technical analysts have correctly predicted the two previous corrections (and the recent increase in the gold price), so they do enjoy some respect in the market”

        OK. Those two guys versus Gary. Only one side can be right.

        Meanwhile Gary is sticking with his cocky talk. Today he wrote “Before Al banned me at Kereport I noted that Doc would be wrong on his call for the dollar to go lower. it turned out he was the perfect contrarian signal as the dollar bottomed on that very day he made the call……..If you want to trade off of emotions with a perma bear bias go to Ker. If you want to make money by trading with real tools and an unbiased approach you come here”.

        Well, he sure has the hots for Doc!

        Wonder what happened behind the scenes we never heard about. These jabs are almost a daily event now.

          Mar 29, 2016 29:45 AM

          Seriously Doc, how in hell did a mild mannered, peaceful guy like yourself manage to inflame G.Savage to the point he spills negative ink on you almost every day lately? I can understand why he hates Birdman because Bird is obnoxious and often uncivil………..but you?

          Its a crazy world man.

            Dan
            Mar 29, 2016 29:20 AM

            He’s still arrogantly touting a “runaway move” in stocks. Laughable.

            Biotech, small caps, energy, and international stocks all in the gutter yet he still attacks bears for being “wrong”. Even the QQQ is weak now. Only the SPX is holding up really and it too should break soon.

            He’s still riding on the one good gold miner call from early in the year. Betting against his bubble phase garbage has been very profitable for me. Naturally, he banned me as well, even though I played the recent oil rally better than him with junior producer picks on his site in mid February.

            Long a few UVXY calls, will add more in a few days after letting this consolidation topping pattern play out.

            Mar 29, 2016 29:42 AM

            Good work Dan. Play your own cards and take no counsel from those who sound too confident in the face of very negative odds. I would like to say Gary will eat his words but the guy is just so unapologetic. He told Avi that even if he was wrong and this recent surge in gold did not mark the “final bottom” that he would call the next bottom too. There was not even a hint of regret in his tone despite the fact he had advised subscribers just days earlier to buy miners and hold for the next five years! WTF…..so in other words he is not really 100% confident or he would not have hedged himself with those remarks to Avi. How could we ever expect him to be contrite and admit an error with that kind of attitude?

            GH
            Mar 29, 2016 29:12 AM

            I agree Gary’s behavior has been antagonistic lately.

            That said, this thing about him calling bottom after bottom and putting his poor subscribers at risk is largely bunk.

            Look. He sees an intermediate bottom form, and gets in. He announces the possibilitiy it could be the final low. He takes profits near the intermediate cycle peak, gets on the sidelines to await the next low, and guides his subscribers to do the same–unless they’re just planning to ride the next bull out. BUT, even for those who think the bear is over and just want to ride the bull out, they’d be well-advised to have a stop-loss in place in case the low that they think is the bottom turns out not to be the bottom.

            Not complicated, not destroying his subscribers. Just cocky and combative lately.

    Mar 28, 2016 28:21 PM

    Doc, good to see you coming around to base metals. You had me thinking last week when you thought copper was heading much lower. I agree that the base metals and some EMs are getting ready to blast off. Might be a few more days down tho.
    And oil? It’s a casino trade right now. Short the stock market and gold is starting to shape up! The miners should get routed if gold and the exchange gets hit at the same time…

    Mar 28, 2016 28:26 PM

    Last time Chris was talking Aliens we hit a bottom in gold. Actually Al’s whole panel was bearish on gold. I think I found my contrarian indicator.

      Mar 29, 2016 29:41 AM

      I’m not bearish on gold longer-term, Ryan. I’ve said the opposite countless times. When I commented today that people who like to make big predictions up or down would be disappointed, I include gold in that too. It seems with some that if you aren’t calling for $5,000/ounce gold next week you are “bearish.” I prefer to be as reasoned as I can in trying to gauge all markets. I have been saying since gold first hit the $1250+ area that it was overbought and needed to pull back. I have said numerous times since that gold’s resilience even as stocks rallied strongly was positive; and that could possibly mean that we don’t go back to the $1150-$1170 breakout area as I first suggested. We’ll see.

      People have been hurt and have lost way too much money because they are too religious/attached to gold and can’t rationally understand this (or arguably any) market. And that is why I add occasional sarcasm/levity as well by cracking wise over those who are always shrieking about “manipulation.” I would think that those who really believed this would never buy gold or gold stocks as they would be guaranteed losers, no?

    Mar 28, 2016 28:14 PM

    Warren Irwin: A bright future for Uranium, NexGen and the Athabasca Basin
    BY COLLIN KETTELL ON MARCH 27, 2016

    http://palisaderadio.com/warren-irwin-a-bright-future-for-uranium-nexgen-and-the-athabasca-basin/

      Mar 28, 2016 28:41 PM

      Warren does a very good job of comparing Nexgen to Fission Uranium in this Audio.

      I recommend anyone looking at Uranium exploration in the Athabasca check this out. Also, for people interested in the disparity between a world-class discovery and how long it takes the market to properaly value a resource in the share price should also listen as he also discussed his huge gains in Bre-x on the way up, and shorting it on the way down. Very interesting interview.

    Mar 28, 2016 28:31 PM

    Gold Resource Corporation Declares March Monthly Dividend
    COLORADO SPRINGS, CO–(Marketwired – Mar 28, 2016)

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1486-nysemkt/goro/17887-gold-resource-corporation-declares-march-monthly-dividend.html

      Mar 28, 2016 28:50 PM

      I need to apologize for having scrambled up one of the Gold stock lists I posted recently. Gold Resource Corp is a producing Gold and Silver miner, and it was Golden Arrow Resource Corp is the exploration & development company.

      Anyway, sorry about that confusion, and I’d be curious as to whether anyone on KER had any thoughts on Gold Resource Corp (GORO). They look like a nice little producer to me and I’ve been watching them for a while and know a few different people have mentioned it in the past.
      ________________________________________________________________________

      Gold Resource Corporation (GORO) – Corporate Presentation:

      http://www.goldresourcecorp.com/content/grc-presentation.pdf

        Mar 28, 2016 28:55 PM

        It’s odd because in my mind they were a near term producer at one time, and I just saw them on 2 other Gold Jr exploration lists, but it looks like they’ve been producing for years since 2011. They’ve also been paying a dividend for years. Man where I have I been on this one, and why don’t we hear about it more often? Is like a Mandalay Resources, that does a great job quietly and pays a dividend, and nobody talks about it?

        Mar 28, 2016 28:35 PM

        GORO was a huge winner for me last cycle but I haven’t followed it for the last few years. It has always had its critics but it’s legit in my book.

          Mar 29, 2016 29:37 AM

          What caught my eye was the press release on their March Dividend, and then I thought “how are they paying a dividend if they aren’t producing”. I’ve actually followed the actual stock for a while because the GORO ticker is pretty catchy, and it has been on my watch lists, but I never dug down deep enough to realize they were producing or paying a dividend.

          For some reason, I always thought they were a development stage company, but that was not correct, and they should be in with the producers moving forward. It’s funny because I’ve asked for people to let me know if something was on the wrong list a number of times of if they had any to add to the various lists but few ever respond back. I’m very grateful for those that do respond back because was have some great discussions on individual stocks and usually uncover some names not followed by most. Surely some shareholders in GORO knew it was a producer.

          I remember Bonzo Barzini mentioning it as one of his holdings, and I generally like about 90% of the stocks he mentions.

          Also this interaction with Wiseguy and Doc got me thinking about it a bit more, but I was waiting for a pullback that never came and was tied up with dozens of other mining stocks.
          __________________________________________________________________________
          On February 4, 2016 at 2:52 pm,
          Wiseguy says:

          Doc, I appreciate your insights on all of these things. Would you believe that I bought HMY near .60 and sold around a dollar thinking it will give it all back soon? I hope it retraces again for my own sake. How do you feel about GORO? It’s looking nice to me as well.

          On February 4, 2016 at 3:05 pm,
          RICHARD (DOC) says:

          Wiseguy, I don’t know fundamentally that much about GORO but the technicals are telling me it’ll head back down to 1.20 again—it appears you don’t have to worry about it getting away from you here.

            Mar 29, 2016 29:48 AM

            Matthew – I just realized that we discussed GORO last year, and you mentioned it had a dividend, and my response was that I was going to go check it out. Apparently I filed it away and never did. My loss. Thanks for the heads up back then and currently.
            __________________________________________________________________________

            On September 17, 2015 at 10:24 am,
            Matthew says:

            I always use my experience with GORO to highlight the risks I am sometimes willing to take. I started buying in ’06 at around $1.30 and had to average up (I hate that in this sector) to an average price of about $2.30. It reached just above $6 before the fall of 2008 hit and I sold nothing. On its plunge back to $2 I bought a little more (the details are now vague as to the amount and price). By the middle of 2010, it hit $10 and I finally sold enough to take back my initial investment (production started on July 1st that year). The vast majority of the rest was sold in the mid $20s but a little was sold in the teens and a tiny amount above $30.

            So I kept a roughly 75% core yet still had a free ride since I waited for a quadruple before taking my capital back.

            I’m tempted to try it again now that GORO is $2.50 again and still paying a monthly dividend.

            On September 17, 2015 at 10:28 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for sharing that story. It reminds me to hang onto maybe a larger positions on my winners but also take some profits into the strength. Yes a few on here have mentioned GORO a few times somewhat recently. I’ll have to give that a look see…

            On September 17, 2015 at 10:46 am,
            Matthew says:

            You had to be laughing about waiting almost 4 years to take my so-called “free ride!”

            On September 17, 2015 at 11:11 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yeup….that’s a long wait… but it was free in the end….

            Mar 29, 2016 29:58 AM

            It came up in June, too… 😮

            On June 25, 2015 at 6:54 am,
            Matthew says:

            I can’t speak for Shad, but I like AXU because I believe silver will be substantially higher in the months and years ahead. Post-SLW amendment, all-in sustaining costs are estimated at $15 -lower than many miners like Endeavor; First Majestic; Pan American; Coeur; Silver Standard; and Great Panther.

            There’s still plenty of exploration upside and I have no doubt that the mine will reopen.

            My best gains have always come from “miners” that don’t mine anything. GORO is an example. I bought it almost four years before it went into production starting at $1.32 and it was over $10 when they starting producing. I sold the majority and my remaining shares in the $20s while collecting 72 cents per share per year in dividends.

            http://www.kereport.com/2015/06/24/bill-holter-good-point/#comments

            Mar 29, 2016 29:01 AM

            With only 1 producing mine at present and guidance for 26,000 ounces of gold for 2016, then that graduates Gold Resource Group over to the “small gold producers” list.

            Mar 29, 2016 29:04 AM

            Thanks Matthew – Yep, you’ve mentioned investing in it before it went into production twice, and I just blanked out and missed that GORO was in production.

            Well this is why I really enjoy having these discussions on KER. It just takes me about a year and 5-6 posts and I finally get the message…… 🙂

            Mar 29, 2016 29:16 AM

            Wow, Ex, GORO produced 66,000 AuEq ounces in 2011.

            Mar 29, 2016 29:40 AM

            I figured out why the disparity. This is from their latest Corporate Presentation posted up above:

            2016 TARGET: 26,000 Au Ounces, 1.9 M Ag Ounces*
            Precious Metal AuEqOunces Ag:AuRatio Dependent

            If you then factor in the Silver and covert it over to Gold Equivalent ounces then you get the total:

            2011: 16K oz of gold, 2.1 million oz of Silver – Total 66,159 Gold equiv.

            2012: 34.5K oz of gold, 3.3 million oz of Silver – Total 90,432 Gold equiv.

            2013: 33.9K oz of gold, 3.0 million oz of Silver – Total 84,835 Gold equiv.

            2014: 35.5K oz of gold, 3.3 million oz of Silver – Total 83,902 Gold equiv.

            2015: 29.6K oz of gold, 2.5 million oz of Silver – Total 63,963 Gold equiv.

            2016: 26K oz of gold, 1.9 million oz of Silver – Total ? 50+K? Gold equiv

            Mar 29, 2016 29:52 AM

            I see. So the 26,000 is not AuEq but just Au. That’s more like it. I thought, “is this what happens when I turn my back for a few years?” 🙂

            GORO has always been half SORO (Silver Resource Corp).

            Mar 29, 2016 29:58 AM

            Yeup, more than half of the “Gold Equivalent Ounces” come from Silver, so in a sense it is more a silver company than a gold company, but with a name like Gold Resource Corp, you gotta go with GORO over SORO. (Ha!)

            It does look like their production continues to slide back year after year, but they may be doing the bare minimum in the depressed metals prices to conserve resources, and they have other up and coming development projects and exploration targets.

            I’m going to keep an eye on this one…

            Mar 29, 2016 29:02 AM

            Maybe they can shift over to Zinc and become – ZORO!

            Mar 29, 2016 29:06 AM

            That’s what I was thinking since their properties are good ones. It hasn’t been 6 years since GORO went into production and already $108,000,000 has been returned to shareholders in dividends. It’s one of a kind in that respect.

      Mar 29, 2016 29:46 AM
    Mar 28, 2016 28:36 PM

    This is a big deal between Lithium Americas (previously Western Lithium that I’ve posted about regularly) and SQM (Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.) on this 50/50 Joint Venture. SQM is one of the largest producers over Lithium on the planet, so Lithium Americas couldn’t ask for a better partner.
    ___________________________________________________________________________

    Lithium Americas and SQM Announce Joint Venture
    (Marketwired – March 28, 2016)

    Lithium Americas Corp. (TSX:WLC)(OTCQX: WLCDF) (formerly Western Lithium USA Corporation) is pleased to announce a definitive agreement with Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (“SQM”) (NYSE:SQM)(SSE:SQM.B)(SSE:SQM.A) to enter into a 50/50 joint venture (the “Joint Venture”) on the Cauchari-Olaroz lithium project in Jujuy, Argentina (the “Joint Venture Transaction”).

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/630-tsx/lac/17884-lithium-americas-and-sqm-announce-joint-venture.html

    Mar 28, 2016 28:33 PM

    The Loonie broke its two month uptrend on Thursday.

    http://schrts.co/D7Au0Y

    Mar 28, 2016 28:44 PM

    I see Chris Vermeulen thinks that we are close to a top in oil and in the SPX.

    http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/a-rally-top-in-place/

    Not sure if he has a typo in the last but one paragraph though – perhaps ‘not’ is meant to be ‘now’ to keep the conclusion in line with the rest of article?

    Mar 29, 2016 29:49 AM

    Hey guys watched this documentary last night called “will work for free”. Big eye opener. It about how technology is taking over the jobs. I was shocked how many different jobs are going to be replaced and that have already been replaced. There is going to mass unemployment coming to this planet. Most people dont want most of these jobs but what will 7 billion people do for work under this
    economic system. I found it to be interesting worth a watch.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0SuGRgdJA_c

      Mar 29, 2016 29:54 AM

      Dick Tracy – Ronny is touching on your area of expertise.

      I agree Ronny and DT and I have been posting back and forth for the last 2 years about how technology is changing the workforce, the type of jobs being created, and how automation, robotics, AI, and process innovation is replacing or at least streamlining many traditional jobs, and people and politicians haven’t realized that those JOBS are NEVER coming back. Humans have been replaced by machines, but Information Technology, Information Systems, Robot repair, plant automation, and many other technology jobs are rising…….. somebody moved the Cheese 🙂

    Mar 29, 2016 29:25 AM

    I knew that technology was taking some jobs away I just had no clue how widespread it is. Almost every industry will be affected. It seems like a very interesting world in 20 years or so. But unfortunately I think the transition will be extremely chaotic. If so many jobs are eliminated it could get very ugly. World population will have to come down significantly in order for this transition to take place. Dont mean to be a doomsdayer but i dont see any other way.

    Mar 29, 2016 29:17 AM

    OIL is back below $38 per barrel as predicted.

    VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil ETN (DWTI)
    161.48 Up 15.58(10.68%) 11:16AM EDT – Nasdaq Real Time Price

    CFS
    Mar 29, 2016 29:52 AM

    Those interested in Pharma might take a look at Contravir (CTRV) which may be on route to Hepatitis B cure.