Last week did some serious damage to the gold and silver markets
Doc joins me on this Veterans Day and Remembrance Day to share his thoughts on where gold and silver could go after the selloff last week. The close on Friday has Doc looking at some lower levels in the short term. We also touch on the overall strength of the US markets.
Who cares ?
Pablum/circus for the masses.
Doc gold broke 1450 but gdx didnt follow gold. If gold does break down to 1400-1420 do you still see miners gdx falling to test 24-25 area? Also if gold breaks down to 1360-1380 area where does the low fall for gdx could it test below w4 area?
Doc if we get next leg down in gold to 1400-1420 area could we see a bounce to suck gold bugs in before it test below 1400 area??
Ira’s metals
Ira is mistaken about silver being a quasi monetary metal. For all practical purposes, silver is entirely a monetary metal. It moves like gold for reason and also sports an above ground supply that equals many decades of production. Copper’s supply, on the other hand, is measured in months, weeks or even days and can slip into a deficit.
Prices are set at the margin and it is investment/monetary/safe haven demand that drives a silver bull market, not a thriving economy. It is most sensitive to “cost-push” inflation, driven by the Fed’s policies, not “demand-pull” inflation driven by a strong economy and the resulting industrial demand.
I wonder if Ira realizes that silver is 92 times more expensive than copper today (16.84/troy oz vs. 0.1825/troy oz). That’s a wider spread than gold has on silver.
Btw, it would be much easier to make a case against platinum’s monetary DNA — it has virtually none and trades like it. In fact, copper acts more like gold than platinum does.
speaking of Platinum and other industrial metals like Nickel or Copper; it was nice to see the PP in (PGE) go through today with Sprott as part of the deal.
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Group Ten Announces Private Placement Financings Totaling $1.77 Million, Including Investment by Sprott Asset Management
by @nasdaq on 11 Nov 2019
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/group-ten-announces-private-placement-financings-totaling
There was also good Balmoral news today for the Nickel/Gold mining investors out there:
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(BAR) (BALMF) Balmoral Welcomes Strategic Investment from Mr. Eric Sprott, Closes Final Tranche of Non-Brokered Private Placement for Total Gross Proceeds of $3.5 Million
by @nasdaq on 11 Nov 2019
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/balmoral-welcomes-strategic-investment-from-mr-eric-3d971
Some investors have postulated a Sprott connection between Wallbridge and Balmoral, because maybe the end-game is to combine these 2 companies or have one of the big boys scoop them both up to combine their properties.
Getting pretty interesting…
Doc, what level do you most think silver will get down to before it begins its next up trend? $13.50-14.00?
It would be very surprising to see silver get below 15 again much less $13 or $14.
Let’s see if the 200-day moving average around $16.12 holds first.
“Look for Gold to test support at $1370 to $1400…” Jordan
While a backtest down to those levels wouldn’t be out of the realm of reason, I’d prefer to see Gold hold up in the mid $1400’s.
Goldfinger had a good piece out today noting $1440 as a support level he’d like to see held.
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Gold On The Verge Of Testing Support As Sentiment Deteriorates
by @Goldfinger on 11 Nov 2019
“Technically speaking gold is sufficiently oversold on the daily timeframe for a tradable low to be put in place any day now. However, some will say that sentiment needs to get a lot worse (DSI < 10) before a real bottom will be put in place. However, if gold really did begin a new cyclical bull market cycle in May of this year then we shouldn't be looking for sentiment to reach extreme overbearish levels over the coming weeks. In my estimation, a further decline down to the $1440 area along with a DSI reading below 20 should be sufficient to ignite a strong rally into year end."
"Back in September I wrote a couple of articles in which I said gold will remain in a strong bullish trend as long as price does not fall back below $1440 on a weekly closing basis. Now that we are closer to this level my assessment hasn't changed, despite the fact that recency bias makes most of us more fearful of further declines. "
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-on-the-verge-of-testing-support-as-sentiment-deteriorates
It took about 2.5 months but gold has finally pulled a “3-8-2” retracement.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p04901978775&a=699398206
There’s 144 day EMA support at 1441 and 30 week MA support at 1430.
The only thing I would disagree with in today’s commentary was that 2016 and 2019 were not “fake out” moves.
The move off Gold’s bottom at $1045.40 up to $1377.50 was by no means a “fake out” a that was a $300+ move higher, and many of the miners went up 500-1000%. If people missed that move, I hate that for them but those gains were very real, and that was the initial move up in the new bull market, and as discussed dozens of times Gold broke through multiple levels of resistance, key moving averages that hadn’t been cleared in years, and took out a number or prior peaks and troughs.
Yes, Gold consolidated that move over 2 years, but it kept bumping its head on resistance in the mid $1300’s and kept putting in a series of higher lows, which were all still bullish action.
In August of 2018, Gold dipped down to $1167.10 (which was still putting in a higher low), and then popped up and back-tested $1180-$1200 in Oct/Nov before starting the next leg higher that blew past the 2016 high and actually surged up to $1566 this August. That’s a $400 plus move of the last intermediate low of $1167, and a $550 move off the major low at $1045.40.
Again, many Gold and Silver miners had fantastic moves from the end of last year to this August, up 50-250%. Those gains destroyed anything seen in the general stock markts and almost every other sector, so how were those “Fake Outs”???
Clearly the moves in 2016, the Q1 run of 2017, the Fall rally in 2017, the Q1 run in 2018, the Fall rally of 2018, the Q1 run of 2019, and the most recent Summer rally of 2019 were all great opportunties to make money in the miners for those that actually bought the dips along the way.
How people can still not call moves like that or a $550 rise in Gold from Dec 2015 to August 2019 a bull market is astonishing, but clearly those that have doubted have missed out on great trades over and over and over again.
If Gold goes up into the $1600s or $1700s in 2020, are they still going to sit around scratching their behinds wondering if the move up off $1045.40 to that is a Bull Market?
Did goldfinger call the moves of ’16 and ’19 fake outs? If so, I’m surprised.
No, Goldfinger is more on it than that and wouldn’t say something like that.
I was referring to Doc calling the 2016 and 2019 moves “Fake Outs”, which I’ve heard a few others insinuate and that is simply untrue.
2016 & 2019 were definitely not fake outs — they were impulse legs to higher highs, with corrective moves that put in higher lows, in the bull market we’ve been in for the last 3 years. Why is this so difficult for folks to see?
I understand that some traders likey jumped in way too late in those moves into the summers, when much of the moves had happened, and got trapped during corrective moves. That is there fault for waiting on the sidelines too long, and not positioning into the weakness for fears of lower lows.
However, just because some traders bought into the top of those moves doesn’t make them fake outs by any stretch. There are always greater fools that buy at the tops, and that is what makes a market.
For investors that were getting positioned in tax loss selling in 2015 or 2018 or even in the early stages of the Q1 runs in 2016 or 2019, there were fantastic gains to be had. I realize some on here recognize this, because we experienced it and documented the moves higher and epic returns in many of the miners. However, ridiculous comments about those moves just being dead cat bounces need to be challenged, and people really need to learn how to read charts and use the proper terminology, or they’ll always be behind and wrong-footed.
I’m just getting really tired of people mislabeling a bull market as a continuation of bear market (when the bear ended years ago). Likewise, it is exhausting to read or listent to uninformed people calling impulse moves that rose to much higher highs and that broke out above multiple resistance levels nothing more than “suckers rallies” or “dead cat bounces”. Those are completely wrong definitions of what 2016 and 2019 were, and misinformed statements like that should be challenged by anyone that values truth and knows how to read a chart.
One other remark that is silly, is when commentators say, “Well the bulls all thought Gold was going to go to the moon this year…”
I’m on here every day, and can’t remember anyone declaring Gold going to the moon or anything close to that. There are some prominent pundits that put higher longer term Gold targets out there of $3K, $5k, $10K but those are longer term targets not 2019 targets, and nobody here has made calls anywhere close to that.
I mentioned last year during tax loss selling that I felt 2019 was the year when the 2016 surge high of $1377.50 would be eclipsed in the next impulse leg higher, and that is exactly what we saw this year when Gold shot through that and went up to $1566.10.
Is that not an impressive enough move to prove that yes, the 2016 surge was just the first leg up of the bull market, and to put an end to the ridiculous and completely inaccurate nonsense from folks that claimed last year that we were still in the bull market from 2011?
If we were still in the bear market from 2011, then why was a new low never put in since the end of 2015?
Clearly, the move up in 2016 was the first move a new bull market, and the move in 2019 only further vindicated that reality by putting in an even higher move up to $1566.10. That is some wacked out moves if we are still in a bear market. š
Here’s a clue: When gold adds $550+ in a few years without even coming close to putting in a new lower low, then that is not a bear market, but clearly a bull market.
Therefore, the uplegs were not fakeouts, and claiming that Gold was going to break to higher highs (which it absolutely did) is not nearly the same thing as saying it is going to a moon.
Here is a Gold chart for the last few years with those struggling with the concept of a bull market move looks like. (hint, bulls go up over time to make higher highs and higher lows, and bear markets go down over time to make lower highs and lower lows).
Yes, that “to the moon” bs is a favorite straw man of those who are always wrong. Just like calling 2016 a fake out, it’s designed to take the heat off of their terrible calls.
Exactly – the “to the moon” calls were never uttered here, and it is a perfect “Strawman” arguement as you stated against imaginary people that never said that.
Most serious technicians take things one step at a time, and one resistance or support level at a time, and would never say — Hey this asset is going to the moon (one of the cringiest statements an investor can make).
The last time I read any folks talking about an investment going to the moon was with Bitcoin, and one could argue that in 2017 it may well have done a moon-shot, and then returned back to Earth again, but it is has been since 2010/2011 since I’ve heard anyone on a PM blog calling for Gold or Silver to go to the moon.
Simply ridiculous to keep stating “all the bulls were calling for a moon-shot”…..
Who are these bulls and where are those comments at, because I never see them.
Thanks, I should have known it wasn’t Goldfinger.
Right at the lows for 2019, immediately before gold moved up $300, the “to the moon” straw man was indeed wheeled out:
http://www.kereport.com/2019/05/20/time-frames-for-gold-silver-and-gold-stocks-to-run-higher/
Oh my gosh, Doc?
Do you mean gold is gonna drop?
Mathew could have something to say about that. ( not that it matters)
Yes, I could point out that you’ve got a worse record than he does. (Not that it matters.)
Yes, 1050 is a hard pill to swallow.
Great stuff everyone. Forgive me for saying this, but…is there any possibility that the conflicts in opinion are a result of intervention by the banks to destroy any predictability in the markets. If so, perceptions would be directed and results predetermined with only a few profiting. It bothers me on a daily basis as counter intuitive market performance appears to be the norm. Just a question and a feeling.
I’ve been having the same thoughts recently. Movements do seem much more counter intuitive than they have ever been.
Matthew,
What do you think gold is gonna do short and mid term?
It will be fun to see the results of a specific callš
(not that you would do that..
Safety first, right?! (heh heh)
I don’t know what planet you’re on because I’ve always been specific and detailed with my views.
Your confidence is strange considering your record.
So what’s the short term or mid term forecast?
Be specific.
My target since the correction started has been the 1450 area and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see the low tomorrow. Intermediate term, it’s hard to imagine my maximum target of 1750 right but 1675 should happen without too much difficulty. Most importantly, I won’t pretend I was right if I’m not.
Now take a look at some “specific” comments from the Fed day in July and compare them carefully with the chart I’ve provided.
On July 31, 2019 at 1:01 pm,
RICHARD/DOC says:
This is the ābuy the rumor and sell the fact’ā Cory and I had talked about last weekāthe 25 basis point decrease was also expected and we allowed yesterday as to the probably sell off of both the conventional and PM markets. The Fed didnāt give the future folloers of Fed action much to chew on but I wouldnāt expect another cut necessarily in Sept unless data really starts to stink. Buy the dip is the mantra again but donāt be short term aggressive since I have the feeling weāre going to be in pause mentality for some time. Allow the stocks to bottom and come back to you.
On July 31, 2019 at 1:08 pm,
Robert Moriarty says:
Doc:
Really good advice. When everyone is on one side of the boat, thatās a bad thing. People are way too bullish and thatās when the market smacks you in the face. I said the same thing yesterday about āBuy the News.ā Corrections are a good thing.
On July 31, 2019 at 2:06 pm,
Matthew says:
The action immediately following a Fed announcement is very often a one-off. The miners had an equally large drop after the December announcement but went up another 13% in the next 2 weeks. The daily chart looks worse this time so I do expect more selling tomorrow but I doubt that this is the pullback Iāve been waiting for (that lasts at least 2-3 weeks).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p53599378602&a=648690594
On July 31, 2019 at 1:41 pm,
RICHARD/DOC says:
Bob, I agree. We had a nice spike in the PM stocks but if one looks at a large number of their weekly and monthly charts, there were very few breakouts. In other words, for most of them, trading ranges are still the norm. Personally, I am more bullish then Iāve been in the last 4-5 years, but wonāt become delirious until we break out of weekly and monthly trading ranges to the upside. My end of the year and 2020 are still my readings for the best chancr of a really significant breakout.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p00136089261&a=699462761
Its going to $700, Dents been right all along.
And then Rothchild will sell maybe 1-2 thousand tons to bring the price down to maybe $300.
Thats my scoop point, $300 š
Ha! Dent has been wrongo in the congo for about a decade now… How he has anyone that takes him seriously is astonishing.
He is the inverse of Bo Polony’s insane upside calls every year.
If Gold goes back to $300 then the US Dollar must have gone to 300 as well. š
Inverse Bo. Now that’s a good one.
They should have a 3x Bo / Dent ETF.
If we could chart talk, it might be something.
I’d wager in the options on the 3xBo or 3xDent ETFs, just to keep things exciting.
https://www.bing.com/th?id=OIP.IZdxrpfOEtf3J2ShM1_EYwHaFj&pid=Api&rs=1
Dent’s Gold Call hasn’t changed since 2015.
I wonder if it is his head that has the dent in it?
https://d2409ybivfqw0m.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/harry-dent-gold-2015.jpg
Based on some fibs, 1055 and /or 860 could happen. I doubt 700 will happen.
But Bo is correct. Once the bottom is in (where & when that is) the moonshot should happen.
If Gold just got into the $1600’s or $1700’s next year, it would do plenty to spike the miners many multiples, as producers can make fat cash at those levels, and development projects would have a huge impact on their NPV/IRR/Payback period on their economic reports.
Just an orderly move higher into 2020 will be cosmic enough for most companies.
Chartster
I was making a jockularity, gold is not going to $700, if it does its going to $300.
Except that Putin and Xi might have sumtin to say about that.
Gold is going to do exactly as it always has, the price in fiat will be directly the result of currency units printed.
Gold is going to remain an excellent savings vehicle.
Unless of course the Sumerian aliens decide they would prefer to use bitcoin to protect their environment.
That could put a hole in the ozone layer.
Well, maybe I’ll buy at $1400 and every $50 lower, course I’ll buy if it goes up too.
Always a good time to buy.
(NEE) (NHVCF) Northern Vertex Provides Update on Moss Mine Project
by @newswire on 11 Nov 2019
Kenneth Berry, President and CEO, states: “Concurrent to delivering our strongest quarter since announcing commercial production in September 2018, the Company continues to implement improvements in several areas at Moss to reduce costs and increase production performance. We are seeing positive results in the recovery rate of both the Merrill Crowe plant and heap respectively. Also, the use of backhoe loading, and better blast control is showing immediate improvement in grade control and tonnage throughput. These achievements made over the last 6 months have allowed us to shift focus on cost reduction and resource expansion.”
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/northern-vertex-provides-update-on-moss-mine-project
(ROXG) (ROGFF) Roxgold Announces Additional Drilling Results From the SƩguƩla Gold Project
by @businesswire on 11 Nov 2019
https://ceo.ca/@businesswire/roxgold-announces-additional-drilling-results-from
(DEF) (DNCVF) Defiance Provides Corporate Update
by @newsfile on 11 Nov 2019
“Defiance has initiated a two-phase technical program at San Acacio. Field work will commence in the third week of November with an immediate emphasis on evaluating the main San Acacio resource at depth as well as brownfields targets adjacent to the mine area and to the south east of the Resource Area. These targets encompass, but are not limited to, alternate mineralization styles, fault bounded “blind” vein systems, and structural targets on the Veta Grande system.”
(VZLA) Vizsla Samples 6 Metres Grading 1,064 Grams Per Tonne Silver Equivalent at Panuco Project in Sinaloa, Mexico
by @thenewswire on 7 Nov 2019
https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/vizsla-samples-6-metres-grading-1064-grams-per-tonne
(LIO) (LOMLF) Lion One Expands Navilawa Alkaline Gold System
by @newsfile on 7 Nov 2019
“a 11.3 m interval of quartz veinlets in altered monzonite beginning at 318.6 m. This intercept is situated approximately 7 m from a high-grade interval in historic hole TUDDH160 that displayed assays up to 1,600 grams per tonne gold.”
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/lion-one-expands-navilawa-alkaline-gold-system
(SVM) Silvercorp Intersects 1,102 g/t Silver, 16.39% Lead, and 1.55% Zinc Over 1.20 Metres at the SGX Mine, Ying Mining District
by @nasdaq on 6 Nov 2019
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/silvercorp-intersects-1102-gt-silver-1639-lead
(MKO) (MAKOF) Mako Mining Corp. – Corporate Update
by @newswire on 6 Nov 2019
“Development work at San Albino is proceeding on schedule. The crusher has been purchased and is expected to be delivered to site over the course of the next six weeks. Importantly, the crusher is capable of handling over 1,000tpd, which allows for an increase in throughput beyond the 500tpd permit granted in September 2017. Earthworks for the mill platform are now complete. Numerous second-hand mills have been identified with plans to select the best one for the project by the end of 2019. Plant construction is still on track for completion by the summer of 2020.”
Why I am Bullish on Tezos XTZ
BTW, fellow #uranium bugs, does anyone know why CVV.V sold off after reporting 2.1 meters of 2.3% U3O8 last month? Okay, it was deep. But as I understood it, this was a proof of concept hole, and it hit. What am I missing?
https://twitter.com/duediligenceguy/status/1193236702434861059?s=20
Not sure why it sold off markedtofuture, but the Uranium stocks are all pretty weak this time of year. I generally like to start adding to my U positions in November during the weakness.
Also, Canalaska did a lot to hurt themselves in the past chasing diamond kimberlites, and that lost some investors, and then they have a few too many properties to keep tabs on and were kind of doing a prospect generator thing, but then started exploring, so it just got a bit confusing as to their strategy.
/GC is showing conformed bottom signal on 1,2,5 hour chart…bounce is very possible/probable
ARE YOU STILL USING Google or a CHROME BROWSER ?
WHY ? Are you stupid ?
I wonder if it matters anymore.
Google has been collecting info on people now since about 1999.
MY guess is they have had everyones info for over a decade, especially medical records,tax records, bank records, education etc etc.
People didnt figure out what google was doing until it was way to late to do anything about it.
People still do nothing about it, they just dont care.
Thats life in the matrix.
Doc, if Michigan can’t beat the Buckeyes then the Gophers or LSU will.
Maybe the Hoosiers can beat Purdue this year and win the old oaken bucket,
football’s greatest trophy.
Avi thinks gold will find a bottom in i or 2 weeks.