A general recap of the moves we saw today in the markets
For the market wrap today I go it alone and recap from a higher level the moves we saw today in the markets. Base metals took it on the chin today as did oil. The USD also continued it’s ongoing recent sell off now below 101 on the dollar index. Gold also stopped its drop today just above $1,180. It would really be nice to see gold break above $1,200 in the short term rather than below $1,180.
Everyone have a nice rest of their day!
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I looks like the red and blue MAs are about to positively cross the green MA.
It looks like game over for $gold if they do cross over. Like 2013 bad.
I think for the short term, the fundamentals have already turned on the daily chart, but gold prices are lagging this leading indicator.
Rising Volatility
Nov. 30, 2016 – By Leo Chen, Ph.D., Portfolio Manager & Quantitative Analyst
“The US stock market has gained over 3% this month, thanks to the presidential election. The continuing all-time high records in the equity market have pressed the VIX Index down to a level close to that of last summer, when the market hovered around 52-week highs for over a month before a drastic pullback: the Dow dropped almost 400 points in just one day. The current low-volatility environment certainly feels like a déjà vu of summer 2016, but is the market being too complacent or is it set up for further gains? As we are aware that the market was boosted by the election result and the high probability of a Fed rate hike in December, we may be able to find the answer in these factors….”
Since the volatility ETF I had been trading in and out of reverse split, and seeing it drop 30%, I’ll be a little more than reluctant to engage with this asoect. I think volatility ETFs are a gravy train for banks and securities firms who sell them short. Have to agree that volatility is probably a wise play for the season, The one caveat is that we are at new historic highs in the stock market after two major financial crises(Nasdaq, mortgages) and a second oil price crash. I would now be wary of coming hyperinflation if a quarter point rise in the policy rate fails to blow out the speculation.
QQQ about to break out on the weekly chart. This will likely correspond with $gold and the yen tanking even further. See 2013 for a roadmap.
Did UBS and JPM Just Imply a Bottom for Gold?
by Soren K. – 29/11/2016
“As one can see, gold prices denominated in the greenback and the yen often move together. There were only two significant divergences in the relative performance of gold priced in the U.S. dollar versus gold prices in the yen. The first case occurred in the 1980s, when the yen strengthened against the greenback, leading to strong declines in yen-denominated gold prices. The second case started in mid-2014. In the second half of that year, gold priced in yen has outperformed its dollar cousin due to the strength of the greenback against the yen and the decline in Japanese real interest rates.”
“Today, while Gold hovers between $1150 and $1200, the Yen is trading around 114 to the USD. That to our eyes puts Gold a little oversold relative to the Yen. This should be watched closely by Gold investors for re-convergence or continued divergence.”
“In trading terms: If things have not changed; Gold will rally and/or the Yen will appreciate (go down) vs. the USD. That is the arbitrage if things are as they were.”
* Are UBS and JPM Implying a Gold Bottom is Near?
“In light of this major decoupling we make it our business to look for reasons for the divergence. Among them are: Trump’s election, CB Policy divergence between BOJ and the Fed, and a combination or possible causation between the 2 major factors. Today we found commentary by UBS and stating they expected a stronger yen. If they are right, a bottom in the yen implies support for Gold.”
*UBS Bearish on Dollar vs Yen
“Bloomberg : UBS Group AG’s $2 trillion wealth-management arm predict the yen will strengthen to 98 to the dollar as expectations of a Trump-led fiscal expansion have become overblown. The yen dropped as low as 114 to the dollar on Friday last, capping a sell off that began with the results of the U.S. election.”
*No Protectionism is Bearish for the USD
“This logic may not seem clear at first. What they likely mean is that, the Yen has weakened vs. the dollar on fears that “America First” policies like protectionism will weaken existing trade with Japan, and thus lessen the need for Yen being held for international trade. A simple example is, the US would cease importing Japanese produced goods thus removing the need for not only the US, but other nations hold Yen for trade with Japan. That much makes sense to us. But if you were to take a knife to the pieces of the reasons UBS sites and peel off protectionism from fiscal spending the 2 policies are inversely correlated to the USD.”
*But NO Deficit Spending is Bullish for the Dollar-Yen, Right?
“What we note and do not understand is the weight the banks are giving to protectionist policies in this scenario vs deficit spending. Protectionism is bullish for the USD vs the Yen as noted above. But deficit spending is bearish for the USD.”
“Taken together, it would seem obvious to us that the $1Trillion proposed fiscal stimulus should have far more bearing on the Dollar than the potential for protectionist policies. UBS seems to put more emphasis on potential protectionism as drivers of USD/JPY than the fiscal spending proposed by Trump. By inference, if Trump’s policies were not implemented, then that would seem more likely to cause a stronger dollar vs the JPY.”
“Therefore for UBS’ position to have credence it would mean they are more focused on protectionism than fiscal spending as drivers of the FX pair. Fiscal spending would surely weaken the dollar, while protectionism would on balance strengthen it. We think for what it is worth, there are practical and political factors that are not expressed here.”
*Protectionism is Harder to Implement than Deficit Spending
“Practically speaking, it is easier to spend money domestically than it is to implement protectionist policies unilaterally without some international blowback. Protectionist policies are not unilateral things. For, every time a country does something to protect its own trade, another country will seek to counter-balance it with actions of their own. We do not control Japan, Russia or China’s policies and ability to react to our own protectionism.”
“Fiscal spending on the other hand is politically and thus practically easier for Trump to accomplish. The GOP controls the Senate, House and Presidency. So if, (and it is a big if), Trump wished to spend more money, he would have an easier time of it than levying trade tariffs w/o global consequences.”
“Thus we see the USD weakening on balance due to our prioritizing the likelihood of increased fiscal spending over Trump successfully implementing protectionist policies. Protectionism actually would peel back some of the policies of past administrations, making a kind of America First Isolationism counter the increasingly complex global network we have.”
*Our Dilemma and Gold
“Perhaps it is not the UBS report we have issue with. Perhaps it is the fact that the USD has strengthened to begin with in light of Trump’s inflationary policies proposed.”
“That is the real rub here. Upon closer inspection we note that Trump has stated on balance that he intends to increase deficit spending. He has made it his point to advocate “Infrastructure tax-credits”. So he intends to finance infrastructure spending with tax breaks. We are not shocked that he would subsidize developers.
But that incentive is not a given to succeed by itself. And if they do succeed, tax revenues will drop. Where will the government get the money it is missing out on?”
“We feel that gov’t tax breaks are not enough and are the starting point in any negotiation with private business. Developers will want subsidies up front. Cash flow is crucial in these type of businesses. They will want cash up front. And that will cause deficit spending ultimately.”
“So the Dollar’s strength has been as befuddling to us as Gold’s weakness in this context. And so we face a problem:
– The markets are never wrong. Gold is down, the USD is up.
– We continue to believe the price for Gold will be much higher in the next 5 years as the USD weakens.
“How do we reconcile the above 2 statements then? Because we know with almost certainty that the endgame for all countries is inflation. We are never married as to how we get there. Our analysis is strategic, not path dependent. That macro approach will miss trades along the way, but other models are used for that. We are concerned with our macro opinion.”
https://www.marketslant.com/articles/gold-and-yen-ubs-says-weaker-usdjpy-ahead
Singapore, Japan central banks agree on currency swap line
SINGAPORE, Nov 30 (Reuters) – The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Bank of Japan have established a local currency swap agreement, the MAS said on Wednesday.
The agreement allows for the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to 15 billion Singapore dollars ($10.53 billion) or 1.1 trillion yen, the MAS said.
“It will enable MAS to provide Japanese yen liquidity to eligible Singapore financial institutions in support of their cross-border operations,” the central bank said.
The swap agreement is effective as of Wednesday for a term of three years, it added. ($1 = 1.4248 Singapore dollars)
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-11-30/Singapore-Japan-central-banks-agree-on-currency-swap-line.html
Take what those scum say with a grain of salt. Look at the price action. $gold is toast in the medium term, although we could get a short covering rally soon. But we could just as easily get a 2012 cascade lower. The reason the yen is tanking is because the BoJ said they would print whatever it takes to get 2% inflation! You don’t have to speculate about protectionism or taxes! Watch the US market continue to soar as commodities (unweighted crb) continue to tank.
Fed Communication: What Is It Good For? – Ben Bernanke
Tuesday November 29, 2016
“Bernanke highlighted the tendency of individual FOMC participants to make public statements and forecasts may not necessary be a helpful communication vehicle simply because analysts deem these comments as what the committee will do as a whole rather than what the individual member thinks would be the best policy approach. ”
For Bernanke, it is really the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) that is key in the Fed’s communication strategy to the public. The SEP, which comes out every quarter and puts together member forecasts for key economic metrics, can be a useful communication tool for the central bank, only if analysts “appreciate how it is constructed and what is does and does not represent.”
“The Summary of Economic Projections remains a controversial part of the Fed’s communications toolkit, and it has sometimes confused more than enlightened,” he said.
But, the issue lies in the fact that Fed-watchers do not fully understand the mechanics behind the SEP report, he added.
“To make use of the SEP, Fed-watchers must appreciate what the SEP is not,” Bernanke said, which he claims is not a policy commitment by the FOMC, it is not an unconditional economic forecast nor does it capture statistical uncertainty for the range of possible outcomes.
What’s more, Fed-watchers should understand what the SEP is “good for,” he continued.
“The FOMC is not a simple democracy but a consensus-driven organization, with the agenda set by the chair,” he explained. “I think of the SEP as a straw vote, a reflection of the range of sentiment going into the full committee debate….”
http://www.kitco.com/news/2016-11-29/Fed-Communication-What-Is-It-Good-For-Ben-Bernanke.html
Remember Mother Felon and her central banking goon squad have everything under control:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/yellen%20confused_53.jpg
Yellen Claus is going to bring us a Santa rally…. right?
But Mother Felon…..what happened to all 4 of those rate hikes we were supposed to have in 2016? You did say we’d have 4 remember…..?
http://stmedia.startribune.com/images/ows_14668021514690.jpg
That’s OK Janet, show em’ you’re a badass in December with a hike of 2-3%……
Ooops…. Make that .2-.3 % Well even though were anticipating a part of a percent, we’ll still call it Judgement Day in your honor banking queen and cyborg:
Trump taps ex-Goldman banker Mnuchin for Treasury post
President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs banker who profited from the housing meltdown, as his Treasury secretary, according to an official briefed on the decision.
Mnuchin’s career has been full of contradictions. He started as a Wall Street insider working for old-line firms before running a series of eclectic businesses — including his own hedge fund and a West Coast consumer bank. In recent years, he has been a Hollywood movie producer.
He served as finance chairman of Trump’s presidential campaign and has been one of Trump’s closest economic advisers. His nomination will be announced as soon as Wednesday, the official said.
Democrats immediately signaled their strong opposition to the expected nomination, which would require Senate confirmation. In a statement, the Democratic National Committee quipped “So much for draining the swamp.” The DNC added that “nominating Steve Mnuchin to be Treasury Secretary… is a slap in the face to voters who hoped he would shake up Washington.”
http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/29/news/economy/donald-trump-steven-mnuchin-treasury/
Any opposition by Democrats to Mnuchin is only on principle to any nomination.
Mnuchin is a non-conservative pick. He will damage the economy even more in my opinion.
The Mainstream Media Has Brainwashed Investors Regarding FED Rate Hike Cycles
Lior Gantz – Wealth Research Group – Nov 29, 2016
“….As you can see, tightening periods aren’t favorable for the S&P 500, as interest rates act as a weight on stock prices.”
“But, it was the second rate hike period that caught investors unprepared. Between January 1977 and April 1980, the Fed Funds Rate increased by a total of 1,300 basis points from 4.61% to a high of 17.61%. During this cycle, the price of gold increased from $129.75 to a high of $850, a gain of 555.11%. Gold gained 46-fold more than the S&P 500.”
http://us13.campaign-archive2.com/?u=18a68f31fc23a087b7c63f15d&id=63f5539e10&e=03e4d5c53f
Gallup Poll: Trust Level of Mainstream Media Falls to 32%
Gallup first began asking if Americans trusted the mainstream media in 1972. America’s trust and confidence in mainstream media stood at its highest level back in 1976 at 72%. Of course, that was due to the investigative journalism regarding Vietnam, and naturally Woodward and Berstein, with the Watergate scandal. Following that period, the media began to attack the right with Reagan. By the late 1990s, the Americans’ trust in the media fell steadily into the low to mid 50% level.
Following 2005, the trust in mainstream media dropped into the mid 40% range. It has consistently been below a majority level ever since the 2007 economic decline. However, after the 2016 election and the extreme bias for Hillary, where virtually 99% of mainstream media deliberately tried to manipulate the people to vote for Hillary, the trust factor has collapsed to 32%. When they polled just conservative Republicans, it was 14%. So the 32% level is the average American.
Our models on the confidence in American mainstream media using the Gallup Poll data projects a sharp decline into 2019/2020, which is the bottom of the current 8.6-year Economic Confidence Model. This will be 43 years from high. Note that 2007 was 31 years from that peak. It was 2007 and the collapse in the economy that has marked the collapse in public confidence in government and the media.
We should expect that the media will viciously attack Donald Trump in a futile effort to cling to some level of importance and to desperately try to demonstrate that they were not wrong with 99% of the media endorsing Hillary. But the media willingly conspired to make Hillary president. They will now try to vindicate themselves by trashing Trump at every possible chance. They will now fuel the civil divide and help lay the foundation for the collapse of the United States itself by turning left against right. Even the New York Post wrote that what they were witnessing was the end of journalism. They will do everything to try to change Congress in 2018. It appears that will be their last stand. The younger generation does not buy newspapers and magazines. Their end is near.
Trump summoned the mainstream TV media to Trump Tower for a meeting. Whether he can persuade them to stop the supporting of civil unrest remains to be seen. Lester Holt, Charlie Rose, George Stephanopoulos and Wolf Blitzer all headed to this private meeting. All have demonstrated outrageous bias and have disgraced the very purpose of a free press as they all tried to influence the people rather than report the news. Even Saturday Night Live made fun of how biased mainstream media has been.
Off Topic: OSU
Snipp Interactive, Inc.
TSX VENTURE : SPN
OTCQX : SNIPF
Snipp Interactive, Inc.
November 29, 2016 23:22 ET
Snipp Interactive Inc. Reports Q3 2016 Financial Results
WASHINGTON, DC–(Marketwired – Nov. 29, 2016) – Snipp Interactive Inc. (OTCQX:SNIPF)(TSX VENTURE:SPN) (“Snipp”), an international provider of marketing promotions, rebates and loyalty solutions, is pleased to announce its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2016. All results are reported under International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) and in US dollars. A copy of the complete unaudited interim financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis are available on SEDAR (www.sedar.com).
Corporate Highlights
Record 265 deals sold in the first nine months of 2016, the highest number in the company’s history.
93 ongoing programs were running concurrently at one point in Q3, a new record for the company, reflecting the scalability of the company’s platform and operations.
Q3 2016 EBITDA loss was -$1.18 million, a reduction of 52% from Q1 2016 and 23% from Q2 2016.
Completed integration activities related to acquisitions carried out in 2015 putting the company on the path to accrue over US $2.0 million in annual cost savings. The full benefit of these cost reductions began accruing to the company in Q3 2016.
Snipp continued development work on extensions to its product offerings, with a particular emphasis on the SnippLoyalty solution and SnippInsights, the company’s data mining solution.
Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2016 Financial Summary
(Refer to Non-GAAP Measures, Gross Margin discussion below)
Revenue for Q3 2016 was US $3.3 million with a gross margin of 61%. Q3 2016 revenue was 17% higher than revenue in Q2 2016 (US $3.3 million vs US $2.8 million) and 57% higher than revenue in Q1 2016 (US $3.3 million vs US $2.1 million).
Revenue for the first nine months of 2016 was US $8.2 million with a gross margin of 68%. This was 18% lower revenue than the first nine months of 2015 (US $8.2 million vs US $10 million) but at a significantly higher Gross Margin.
Gross Margin was 28% higher for the first nine months of 2016 compared to the first nine months of 2015 (68% vs 53%). There was a 10% reduction in Q3 2016 Gross Margin when compared to Q2 2016, due to increased variable campaign components (61% vs 71%). The company defines Gross Margin as revenue less campaign infrastructure costs.
Sales bookings for Q3 2016 were US $2.8 million with estimated margins of over 70%.
Sales bookings for the first nine months of 2016 totalled US $10 million in comparison to US $9.9 million for the first nine months of 2015.
The current bookings backlog stands at US $5.5 million.
The current sales pipeline stands at $22.4 million as of November 29th, 2016.
The company reduced its Salaries and Compensation costs by 10% (US $281,896) in Q3 2016 compared to Q2 2016 (US $2.7 million vs US $2.9 million) and by 21% (US $688,278) in Q3 2016 compared to Q1 2016 (US $2.7 million vs US $3.4 million).
The company had US$7.6 million of current assets at the end of Q3 with no outstanding bank debt.
Dutch lawmakers approve ban on Islamic full-face veils in public transport, schools, govt buildings
Published time: 29 Nov, 2016 21:08
Good for them.
While I believe in respect for everyone (until they demonstrate they don’t deserve it), I can’t see any reason to invite a different culture, with different values, into one’s society, and demand that we all perform a multi-cultural contortionist act.
To me, multi-culturalism, to a large degree, is a divide and conquer tactic of the globalist oligarchs. Keep the masses squabbling, insecure, distrustful and distracted, while they move ahead with their agenda.
Iron ore, Met Coal prices plunge on Chinese Steel Meltdown
Frik Els | 28 minutes ago
http://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-plunges-chinese-steel-meltdown/
$GSP $AGCCF Gensource Potash, Essel Group to jointly develop small Potash Mine in Saskatchewan
Cecilia Jamasmie | about 13 hours ago
Gensource Potash Update – FINANCED TO PRODUCTION
Palisade Research – November 29, 2016
http://palisade-research.com/gensource-potash-update-financed-to-production/
Osisko Gold Royalties: ‘A young company with mature ambitions’
Top 5 Gold Junior Takeover Targets For 2017
Nov. 29, 2016 – Seeking Alpha – Gold Mining Bull (4,666 followers)
#5 Teranga Gold (TCGDF)
#4 Semafo (OTCPK:SEMFF)
#3 Gold Standard Ventures (NYSEMKT:GSV)
#2 Guyana Goldfields (OTCPK:GUYFF)
#1 Pretium Resources (NYSE:PVG)
That article has the wrong ticker for Teranga Gold on the OTC. Should be (TGCDF).
Opec is cutting 1.4 Million Barrels.
The Keystone XL was designed for 1.6 Million Barrels.
The next 3.5 Years will see the unthinkable happen.
The next time there is a price spike. The only way to solve it will be XL.
Regardless of what happens next, each opec member will have to eat each others lunch to gain market share, and when they squabble next time the price will skyrocket and if you think low prices cause fights, wait until there is something to fight for. wow.
December will be a most interesting month in Europe:
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker recently begged EU leaders not to hold votes on whether to leave the EU … because they may PASS:
.
Need evidence of end of heredity?
Check out the second preferred choice for a male baby name in the UK.
The UK’s top baby names 2016
Girls
Olivia (non -mover)
Lily (+ 1 place)
Sophia (- 1 place)
Emily (non-mover)
Amelia (non – mover)
Ava (new entry +5 places)
Isla (new entry +5 places)
Isabella (+ 2 places)
Isabelle (- 2 places)
Sophie (-2 places)
Boys
Oliver (+1 place)
Muhammed (-1 place)
Noah (+1 place)
Harry (+2 places)
Jack (- 2 places)
Charlie (+1 place)
Jacob (-2 places)
George (+ 4 places)
Ethan (- 1 places)
Henry (+8 places)
CFS, what do you mean by ‘end of heredity’?
In the TNX/PRII Weekly, the ROC has already made a reversal, and the chart itself is attempting a second time to notch a reversal. This chart only updates after 7pm. Probably the best universal grip in the tool box.
http://schrts.co/bTtSjF