More 2017 Predictions for PMs and International Economies
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
This weekend’s show is focused on the moves we have seen in precious metals since Fed raised rates and the health of the international economies. Similar when the Fed raised rates in December 2015 gold bottomed and moved up for the next 6 months. At the same time in December 2016 gold is bouncing on the heals of the Fed rate hike. I discuss the potential of a similar run in 2017 for gold.
The economic health is also discussed at length. China has been slowing for years and recent reports have shown the Country is strapped for cash. Capital outflows have grown throughout 2016 and the government is implementing currency controls. What this all means for the commodity market and the US economy is covered in the two hour show.
- Segment 1 & 2: Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, Managing Partner at Incrementum AG based in Austria, shares his investing views for 2017 and what he thinks are the key drivers to price.
- Segment 3: Richard Postma AKA Doc outlines the moves he sees in gold and silver throughout 2017.
- Segment 4: Auryn Resources Executive Director Ivan Bebek outlines the recent $41 million financing from Goldcorp and what is next for the Company’s impressive 2017 plans.
- Segment 5 & 6: Axel Merk, Founder of Merk Investments, shares his outlook for currencies around the world. We also discuss his outlook for inflation.
- Segment 7: We chat China with the Business Editor of the Epoch Times Valentin Schmid.
- Segment 8: Professor of Economics at Loyola University and a regular contributor to the Mises Institute Dr. Walter Block dives into the US economy under Trump.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Thanks as always Dr Richard. Who can’t wait another year (maybe less)? To accentuate the positive buy the dips every time there’s a pull back.
Remember guys Trump and his team LOVE gold.
I hope Trump and his team don’t love our gold!
On precious metals/commodities/the markets – everyone is waiting to see what Trump will do the first 24/7/30 hours/days in office. Or what Obama will do his last 7 days in office.
On price controls/China/Bitcoin – investors/savers looking for ANY alternative to a continuously-depreciating fiat currency are always going to be butting heads with their government/central banks, who own/control the fiat currency, and in some cases, the most debt instruments that make alternatives into competitors for that fiat currency. It’s a personal Cold War against wealth depreciation and freedom.
Valentin Schmid makes a valid point – at some timeframe, it’s no longer fun and games to play the government’s/world’s con game with fiat currency. If you wish to get off the “rat wheel”, and you are not born into, or connected with, the right crowds, or cannot claw your way to financial independence, then your options for future investment are limited. If you want a future past working yourself to death every day, then you need the education and the opportunity to escape the fiat trap. That is usually commodities and/or escaping outside the current capital controls of your country – but those jaws are getting larger, and tighter.
As a former Chinese national,I can assure you that Chinese government is more responsible and working more for the interest of China than their US and Canadian counterparts towards their countries.
A Discussion of The Dollar, Gold and Chinese Liquidity with Paul Mylchresst
Bob UK – I wrote you back a little more lengthy response on the Doc editorial from yesterday regarding the Uranium sector to clarify the short-term outlook versus the longer term prize over the next few years in this sector. Just wanted you to know.
Here’s a quick link to it (at the bottom of that blog):
http://www.kereport.com/2017/01/13/peak-bond-market-higher-oil-price/
Speaking of Uranium…..
David Cates (of Denison Mines): Institutional Money is Pouring Into Uranium Stocks
POSTED ON JANUARY 14, 2017 BY COLLIN KETTELL
http://palisaderadio.com/david-cates-institutional-money-is-pouring-into-uranium-stocks/
He makes some great points about the sheer volume of money coming into the Uranium sector over the last few weeks. There were a number of days in the last 2 weeks where 8-20 times the volume showed up in many stocks. That is significant.
Mid term to Long term the Uranium market will continue to rise out of these low levels. I trimmed a little this last week because there were such large gains in so many Uranium stocks from where I added in Nov-Dec. The sentiment and price action seemed a little over-heated. However, if investors don’t at least have some exposure to this component of the Energy sector, they’ll be kicking themselves in a few years, because the action from December to January sure feels like bouncing out of a genuine bottoming process. The sharpness of the move and the large volumes of shares traded day after day are the key signals.
If the shares pull back 10-20% in the short term, then I’ll be aggressively buying. If the shares just keep climbing, then my portfolio has a significant exposure to the sector.
Wishing all the Uranium investors a great 2017!
The Uranium Miner Sector Has Bottomed
Friday January 13, 2017 – By David Erfle
“After six years of a brutal bear market and numerous “bottom” calls, the Uranium Miners have finally made what appears to be a long-term bottom as we begin the new year.”
Companies featured in this article:
Denison Mines (DNN) (DML): Exploration and development in the Athabasca Basin region of Northern Saskatchewan, Canada.
Energy Fuels (UUUU) (EFR): The dominant uranium producer in the US which also has the most reserves.
Uranium Energy Corp (UEC): US producer and developer with one of the largest databases of historic uranium exploration and development in the country.
UEX Corp (UEX) (UEXCF): Exploration and development in the Athabasca Basin. Cameco owns 17% of the outstanding shares.
CanAlaska Uranium Ltd (CVV) (CVVUF): This 26 year Project generator holds interests in over 500,000 hectares of land in the Athabasca Basin and also has a very tight share structure with just a little over 27 million shares outstanding.
Skyharbour Resources (SYH) (SYHBF): Uranium and Thorium exploration with 5 projects in the Athabasca Basin. “Radioactive Rick” Kusmirski is one of the best U308 Geos in the business.
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2017-01-13/The-Uranium-Miner-Sector-Has-Bottomed.html
Excelsior, thank you for recommending Ur Energy. I bought a few thousand at 60 cents canadian and making 46% profit. I am waiting for a 10 fold gain so I am not selling.
I also bought a lot of shares of uex and dml and hope to make good profit.
Nice Dragonite. Yes, I like and hold Ur Energy, UEX corp, and Denison as well.
Make sure to check out the interview from Palisade Radio with David Cates from Denison up above. He is a very sharp guy and has a very grounded perspective on the Uranium market. He makes great points that we may cool off a little, but that the larger funds that are positioning now (which is why we see the larger volume spikes day after day) means they are positioning for the longer term in the sector, and will be less likely to sell on pullbacks. Moving forward the pullbacks may be more shallow and supported with buying. I’ll be buying the dips moving forward.
Thanks again Excelsior. Uranium has been only sector I lost money. I played it profitably twice and got caught by Japanese in 2011, LOL. I cannot believe that I not only hold them for 7-8 years but also quadrupled my position since 2011. Since Rick Rule is my role model, I will imitate him as much as I can. I am looking for big gains. I will this sector to test my patience. My average cost is low now.
Cheers.
Thanks again Excelsior. Uranium has been only sector I lost money. I played it profitably twice and got caught by Japanese in 2011, LOL. I cannot believe that I not only hold them for 7-8 years but also quadrupled my position since 2011. Since Rick Rule is my role model, I will imitate him as much as I can. I am looking for big gains. I will this sector to test my patience. My average cost is low now.
Cheers.
I feel quite confident that the bottom is in for the uranium stocks.
Here’s a great Uranium chart and commentary from Goldfinger:
@Goldfinger – “It’s Sunday and the quotes aren’t flickering so we can look at this chart of $URA unemotionally and say that this is one of the most powerful breakouts from a completed ~18-month rectangle bottom pattern I’ve ever seen. Minimum upside objective from breakout = $18.50-$19.00, ~$15 becomes support, substantial overhead supply from 2014/15 between $19-$22.”
Ah, thanks Excelsior. I missed that. I will go have a read of it once I have had my breakfast and morning cycle ride. Cheers.
Good plan. Enjoy the morning ride, and you may want to throw in a coffee as I got a bit long-winded in my response. 🙂
5 Uranium Statistics That Will Blow You Away
Nuclear power is bigger than investors think, which means uranium demand is set to grow in the years ahead
Reuben Gregg Brewer (TMFReubenGBrewer) – Jan 13, 2017
http://www.fool.com/investing/2017/01/13/5-uranium-statistics-that-will-blow-you-away.aspx
I think we are just starting in U sector.
Agreed.
Recent interview with Curtis Moore, Energy Fuels’ vice president of marketing. (EFR) (UUUU )
Energy Fuels well poised to capitalize on improving uranium markets in 2017
Jan 12, 2017
Good Historical Zinc charts:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/zinc_historical_large.html#5years
$VTT $TK $PSXRF $TV $HER $CNX $RXL.AX $IBG.AX $GPM $RVR.AX $CZX $CZN $IZN $AMI.AX $AUQ.AX $ZAZ $EMX.AX $YRBA $CZL.AX $GMR.AX $MCT.AX $MLS.AX $OVR.AX $TZN.AX $ZNC-H and $FOM are some interesting smaller #Zinc companies to dig into.
$IVN $NSU $CEM $SLR $AVU $OMI $USA $IPT $EXN $AXU $SCZ and $GPR are other companies with nice Zinc exposure as well.
HAYWOOD RESEARCH: The Weekly Dig – Market Uncertainty Continues as Trump Inauguration Draws Closer
Mick Carew, PhD, and The Haywood Mining Team
The Weekly Dig – January 13, 2017
$CDB $AUG $G $OR $DML $EFR $OSK $NCA
http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1c7k9rj-MMJan132017_CEO_secured.pdf
Seriously, this is THE most important level for gold…
by @Goldfinger on January 13, 2017
https://www.ceo.ca/@goldfinger/seriously-this-is-the-most-important-level-for-gold
Nice, thanks
Goldfinger is a sharp guy.
JTL and Birdman should pay attention to Goldfinger.
Speaking of volume by price, you can see why the current price levels of companies like USA and IPT are important…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p33284408516
As you probably recall, I bought quite a bit of CBG recently between .06 and .07 (.066 average) and you can see how it moved from that heavy volume area…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CBG.V&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=22&id=p32825007376
Matthew – Great charts on Americas Silver Corp. Much appreciated.
I’ll have another look at CBG, and do have it on my short list, but I’m maxed out on gold miners at present and looking to reduce down the number a bit. I do remember reading that they had a good drill results fairly recently, and that may have helped the cause.
Cheers!
A good lesson on volume by price, thanks Matthew.
Take a look at where GDXJ reversed on December 19 and the level that stopped it last week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=6&mn=11&dy=0&id=p55927366269&a=499696673
When it takes out the $50 area, it should move way up very easily.
Now that was an interesting chart. (thanks for the arrows as well) I see how the volume by price created the support.
Ditto
JTL and SM are toast. Long gone! A bit like HH with all his pronouncements about WW3 in 2016 – Poor fellow hasn’t been raptured yet!! lol.
And there has been very little conflict on the blog every since…. 🙂
Sweet tranquility 🙂
Thanks for posting the dig.
I really dig it. 🙂
Lots of good coverage in the Jr mining space and macro overview.
Cory:
I believe it was with your discussions with Doc. that you again expressed your healthy skepticism of the Trump euphoria, much of which is expressed in the stock markets. I think your advantage of ability to observe this is partially that you are Canadian, outside looking in. Lucky man! Just sayin’.
Spend 10 minutes watching this one if ya have any reservations about stacking Phyzz Gold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBjsKaSlAIo
Sorry if I’m reposting something that has already been posted…have been so busy not sure what I have and haven’t read.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton011317.html
Thanks Wolfster. Adam makes some very interesting points about the GLD capital flows at the beginning of this year in contrast to the end of 2016. Good stuff!
I drew the arrows on the following chart back in November. As you can see, COPX (copper miners etf) performed even better than I thought it would as it consolidated its big gain…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p17307832894&a=487758022
My only reservation with Copper at the present is that it is still a potential of double-topping at present levels. The slow stochastics are elevated about to cross, and the ADX looks like it is ripe for a reversal of trend.
Don’t get me wrong – I’m a huge fan of Copper for the mid to long term, but would like to see it breakout into higher highs and not get rejected down from current levels.
Great charts though as per usual, and very educational for review. Thanks Matthew!
I like the gold/silver miners more but I think copper can still go higher before it has to correct/consolidate for an extended period.
The daily chart looks good:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=22&id=p06146528888
The weekly chart looks better. It might be time for the Full STOs to get overbought (for the first time in years):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=22&id=p20715691864
I didn’t have visibility to the full stochastics on that chart, but your point is well taken.
I forgot about the limitations for non subscribers, so you can see what I mean by selecting the Full STO under the “Indicators” menu below the cart and changing the parameters to 14,7,7. After you’ve looked at that, change the parameters to 20,12,7.
Maybe this will work:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=22&id=p88515549036
Thanks Matthew. Yes, that did the trick, and there is a big difference on the Full Stochastics when you look at 14,7,7 versus the 20,12,7.
Pardon my ignorance on the issue, but is changing the 14 to the 20 more in harmony with the 20 day moving average, and better because it is a longer time period measurement?
For example: On the Weekly if I look at the 14/7/7 I see them looking like a cross is eminent (and that is typically the default setting I use). However, switching the Weekly to the 20/12/7 show them pulling further away like the run could continue further before getting reading for a turn down. Very interesting.
reading = ready
Stockcharts provides a good explanation:
“The default setting for the Stochastic Oscillator is 14 periods, which can be days, weeks, months or an intraday timeframe. A 14-period %K would use the most recent close, the highest high over the last 14 periods and the lowest low over the last 14 periods. %D is a 3-day simple moving average of %K. This line is plotted alongside %K to act as a signal or trigger line.”
There’s much more:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:stochastic_oscillator_fast_slow_and_full
Btw, the default setting is 14,3,3 but the two that I pointed out can also become overbought for extended periods (even on the weekly chart) during strong bull market advances.
Hi Shad :
Using two different time frames is what Gerald Appel says to do with the MACD. Using a faster signal for buying and a slower signal for selling. Daily signal for buying and the weekly signal for selling. This practice helps alleviating the whipsaws. I can see how this could apply to the full stos also.
Good stuff, JohnK. I often look at the 8,17,9 MACD (maybe Gerald came up with that?).
Here’s the “volume by price” and the full stos applied to Scorpio Gold:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGN.V&p=W&yr=2&mn=7&dy=22&id=p39561767328&a=499741705
Thanks Matthew and JohnK.
Very helpful and interesting on using the varying time frames for buying and selling, and to get a different vantage point. Looks like I have more homework to do 🙂
Hi Mathew:
I don’t see the 8,17,9.Gerald did invent the MACD though.
The SGN.V is my kind of chart.Thanks for the post.
Shad:
Every week I look at the body of information you produce and I realize how much of a slacker I have been.JK
Thanks JohnK. I probably spend too much time on investing, but I love the research and hunting for opportunities. Your comments are always appreciated, and please keep us posted on any opportunities you have your eyes on. Many of the companies you discuss are rarely covered anywhere else and I always look forward to what your getting into. 🙂
Copper looks VERY good compared to gold but I expect copper:gold to be stuck in a wide range for awhile…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p35359624483&a=385074126
Priced in dollars, copper looks even better…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=22&id=p85285568040&a=453756421
Doc, have you been to youtube.com and heard the interview with RFK, Jr. at
“vaccines revealed episode 3”? Trump met with RFK, Jr. last Monday. Maybe I should sell my MRK…
Thanks for bringing up that these are being posted at youtube–an issue we all should know a lot more about.
The regimen of vaccines to which infants are subjected today is shocking.
The junk they put in vaccines is shocking.
One can’t help but wonder if the meteoric rise in auto-immune diseases is linked to the rise in vaccine use.
One also can’t help but suspect that the increasingly frequent epidemic scares (SARS, West Nile, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Chikungunya, Ebola, Zika, …) are a business tactic of the vaccine industry, or perhaps another, even darker, agenda.
The vaccine business is darker than the masses realize.
So true!
Bill Gates is as evil as Soros!
I wish everyone would listen to the interviews with RFK, Jr., Dr. Suzanne Humphries, and Dr. Setliff at ‘vaccines revealed” on youtube.com It is mind blowing! It is a very good sign that Trump met with RFK. Jr. last Monday.
Another Auryn interview from this week.This one is from bnn
http://www.bnn.ca/commodities/video/junior-mining-company-makes-investment-deal-with-goldcorp~1034860
Great interview with Rob McEwan
http://www.bnn.ca/commodities/video/industry-giants-assess-gold-trends-for-2017~1034824
+1
Pierre Lassonde was fairly entertaining as well. The points he made at the end about how the targets for his streaming business Franco Nevada were interesting.
Thanks, I always have time for Rob McEwen and own MUX. My GG shares did much better when Rob ran GG.
Thanks for posting this CFS. It’s a good compliment to the comments on interest rates in the Macro Voices interview of Rick Rule that you posted recently.
I’ve put it all on a chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p73726127179&a=499583201
I keep expecting FCX to drop back to 12ish but everytime it drops, so far, it has been bought up. Will be interesting to see what it does this week and on the 23rd.
Bob, the odds are you may have to wait until February
Thanks Doc – appreciate you replying.
Lithium Americas Corp. (TSX: LAC) could become the world’s lowest-cost lithium producer
SmallCapPower | January 12, 2017
“Timing and resources could not be better for Lithium Americas Corp. (TSX: LAC)(LACDF) as it paves the way to becoming the world’s lowest-cost lithium producer. In conjunction with the growing market for energy storage and its joint venture with the world’s leading lithium producer, Lithium Americas is positioned as a promising speculation for the long term.”
“Lithium Americas (LAC) has the potential to be an industry disruptor with world class, low-cost operations thanks to the technical expertise of SQM. With the average P/NAV for mining companies at roughly 0.7x, LAC is far below this figure. Compared to Nemaska Lithium Inc. (TSX: NMX), LAC appears to be undervalued with a P/NAV of 0.31x vs 0.35x. Additionally, operating costs per ton of lithium is substantially lower for Lithium Americas, nearly a third of NMX. Although Critical Elements Corporation (TSXV: CRE) appears to be the best value of the three companies, its per ton operating costs are more than twice that of LAC, leaving CRE vulnerable to lithium price volatility. Additionally, it is worth noting that this calculation does not include Rheominerals, an asset of LAC which is pure upside. Also, this calculation does include the updated plans to double lithium production to 40,000 tpa and potash production to 80,000 tpa, which would significantly increase the net asset value of Cauchari-Olaroz.”
http://smallcappower.com/expert-articles/canadian-lithium-junior-poised-120117/
Bulls Eye: Energizing Portfolios with Lithium Stocks
by @PamplonaTrader on January 13, 2017
PAST IS PROLOGUE
“After an explosive start to 2016, Lithium stocks spent the back half of last year consolidating gains. Going into 2017, it appears Lithium stocks are once again poised to energize portfolios….”
https://www.ceo.ca/@pamplonatrader/bulls-eye-energizing-portfolios-with-lithium-stocks
I posted these thoughts on Lithium stocks earlier in the week to another investor on ceo, and figured I’d share it here as well:
______________________________________________________________________
@Excelsior — “Yes I’ve traded (DJI) (PE) in the past [and have traded in and out of a position in (LAC) for years – Since the Western Lithium days], however I don’t know as much about (ILC). I have it on my watch-list and must have done some homework on it at one point, but I’ll need to revisit it and didn’t realize they had a deal with Ganfeng.
My primary #Lithium positions are in (GXY.AX) (NMX) (NMT.AX) (PLS.AX) and (LAC) . I used to hold (ORL) , because I liked the security of a #producer, but it just wasn’t moving so I swapped it out with the #development play (PLS.AX). If I picked up another it would be (AJM.AX) because their project is moving forward and has the likelihood of making it into #production. I’ve also considered getting a position in (MIN.AX) – for a larger exposure of the JV with (NMT.AX) and Ganfeng.”
– from #LAC, 13 Jan 2017
Here is a Line Chart going all the way back to the summer of 2014 when the Lithium boom just started to get some wind in it’s sails.
$GXY.AX Galaxy and $NMX Nemaska have had such huge runs up to over 800% over the last few years that it may be time to allocate funds to a few of the up and coming names (for larger percentage gains moving forward, but both are solid companies in the sector, and will likely stay that way.
I like BFD.V Beaufield Resources. They have Li in Quebec,and Au in the Urban Barry.The double barrel shotgun approach.
Thanks JohnK – Yes, I do follow Beaufield Resources on my larger watchlist, but it is not one I’ve taken a deep dive into.
Kidman Resources (KDR.AX) and Birimian Gold (BGS.AX) (EEYMF) also had the double barrel approach with Gold & Lithium. Birimian is selling off one of their barrels though (which seems like the wise thing to do).
I see the rational that dual commodity interest attracts different types of investors, but I’m more a fan of a company this focused on either Metals or Energy for the split focus is a bit dilutive and neither barrel gets it’s proper due. This is the challenge I have with Brazil Resources pursuing Gold and Uranium simultaneously. It would seem this is also what tanked Canalaska’s share price this year when they went off on their Diamond tangent, and many investors interested in their Uranium assets felt it was a wild goose chase. In my mind they were right to pursue further exploration with DeBeers, but if they found anything, the right course of action would have been to spin those assets out into a Diamond focused company.
Personally, I’d rather own a a Gold/Silver/PGM/BaseMetals conglomerate than a Gold/Lithium or Gold/Uranium company. So Gold & Copper, or Gold & Silver, or Silver & Zinc, or Copper/Nickel/PGM companies all make total sense for a double or triple barrel company because they are synergistic geologically and in mining methods. Mining Gold and Lithium or Uranium and Gold are a bit apples and oranges.
Along these same lines, I just sold off Uranium Resources this week on the huge spike, because I don’t like that they mixed Lithium exploration into the Uranium pipeline. What makes way more sense to me is a Lithium/Phosphate/Potash combination as they are often found together. I could also see the synergy of a Uranium/Rare Earth company as sometimes they are found together and have similar permitting regulations.
Just my perspective on double-barreled or multi-focus companies.
rational = rationale
Some examples of well run multi-commodity companies that come to mind are Ivanhoe Mines, Mandalay Resources, Sierra Metals, Polymet, Balmoral, Constantine Metals, McEwen Mining, and Trevali Mining.
In addition, a number of the Prospect Generators (like Eurasian Minerals, Strategic Metals, Millrock Resources, Altius Minerals, Globex Minerals, Transition Metals, Solitario Exploration, Midland Exploration, etc…) have a multi-prong approach for exposure across different commodities.
Thanks for that. Very thought provoking. Brazil Res. has been very interesting.I really like Marin Katusa,for that reason I really like Brazil Res.
Interesting enough,IDM.V sold off there Yukon assets for stock and are focusing on their gold mine.I liked both assets,but now Rob can laser focus on B.C
I’m a pretty good stock picker but a lousy seller. I know you are an active seller when thing get to overheated,technically how can I become a better seller?
Well, for me selling is often very difficult to get right. I generally can lock in a good profit, but often trim too soon. More often than not though, when I watch for multiple technical signals to line up it can provide good entries and exits for trading. (I consider trend line support/resistance, prior peaks & troughs, Japanese Candle patterns, and Fibonacci retracement levels, but am not rigid with only using one metric, as they can also give false signals). I like back up one of those technical data points with other chart indicators.
For example, I’ll post a chart of America Silver Corp (USA) below at the bottom. I’d point out how well the peaks to the upside line up with overbought conditions on the Fast and Slow stochastics, and how the ADX with rising green is bullish and rising Red is more bearish overall, and where they narro or cross are congestion zones.
In addition, I play around with different Moving Averages until a find 2-3 that seem to work with a given stock. So for Americas Silver I’ve noticed the 50 day EMA and the 144 day EMA cross at key turning points. Many would point out that using the weekly charts minimizes the noise, and they’d be correct, however I like to consider both, but usually drill down from weekly, to daily, and on a day when I’m ready to buy or sell I drill down to the 5 minute charts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USA.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32193742118
I had my best year last year and for the first time ever I stayed disciplined in my trading.Sold 1/3 of my holdings when ever things went up 33%+ no matter what the charts said.Did the same at 66%.With Auryn I bought back in on the correction from over $4 back down to $2’s.I never sold at the right times either in the past
Speaking of Mandalay Resources…..
Mandalay Resources Corporation Announces Production and Sales Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2016
TORONTO, ON, January 16, 2017 — “Mandalay Resources Corporation (TSX: MND) announced today its production and sales results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2016. In the fourth quarter of 2016, Mandalay produced a consolidated 31,293 saleable ounces of gold equivalent and sold 29,399 ounces of gold equivalent.”
http://www.mandalayresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MND_Jan_16_2017.pdf
Speaking of Sierra Metals…..
SIERRA METALS ANNOUNCES FILING OF PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS RELATING TO CAUTIVO MINING INC. SPIN-OFF AND RIGHTS OFFERING
01/13/2017
When I bought Brazil Resources stock, now called GoldMining, GLDLF, part of my reason was its land holding which were highly prospective for Uranium in the Athabasca, Alberta.
Does anyone know the status of work jointly with Areva?
Their website has not been kept up due to the company name change.
I believe Amir Adnani would be better served to sell those Uranium assets out of Gold Mining Inc to Uranium Energy Corp (UEC) as that’s his other company and it is focused on Uranium. Then Gold Mining Inc could stay focused on their name sake. It is unlikely the Uranium assets in that company will ever get properly valued.
I agree with you, Ex. That’s why I asked above, as whether anyone knew what was happening.
My guess was Brazil Resources bought the uranium properties because it had the cash and they were a good buy. (Possibly with the later intention of selling them to UEC.)
But it seems out of character of Adnani to get behind on promotion…..that is his forte.
I was wondering if it was the first sign of a problem; to get behind in website stuff.
They’re probably just overwhelmed with the rebranding initiatives, and I don’t doubt for a moment that Amir will be promoting both his companies hot and heavy soon enough.
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter
Fourth Quarter 2016 Investor Letter
Physical Will Trump Paper Gold
John Hathaway – Senior Portfolio Manager – Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.
http://tocqueville.com/insights/gold-strategy-investor-letter-4Q16
It’s nice to see the board peaceful and respectful but sometimes it helps to lighten things up when you get a little bit of BS, speaking of such where is Irish Tony that old snake charmer! LOL! DT
+1
Excelsior:
I happen to like John Hathaway a lot but I get real nervous anytime someone tries to suggest there is some giant difference between physical gold and paper gold. If you hold physical gold, you either bought it with paper or had to mine it yourself. Most of the time physical and paper are more or less the same. The only time it will ever get real critical is if and when the entire paper system grinds to a halt. And I happen to believe it will one day.
But it is worth looking back at some of the predictions of the “Gurus” of the web. I had forgotten how wrong people have gotten it for so long.
Great points Bob M. as per usual
Agreed. I’m not a big physical versus paper market manipulation/reset guy either, and feel the similar that it would take a breakdown of all paper assets for a real re-rating. It is very possible that this could happen at one point, but when…. nobody knows.
Aside from the headline message, I felt John had peppered in some good macro fundamentals on the Metals and general markets and it was some food for thought from a guy active in the PM space.
As for gurus, I’ve never had any use for them myself, but I enjoy learning from everyone and getting different perspectives. When I post things, there are often passages I agree with and disagree with, but if there is an interesting perspective raised or good bullet points in the article, then I just post and figure everyone will get from it what they need and discard the rest. I’m trying to keep Big Al & Cory happy by staying “nimble and well-informed”. 😉
Cheers!
I did check out Hathaways bad calls they highlighted on that http://pmaccountability.com site, and there were a few whoppers back in 2012 and 2013, and those were pretty turbulent times in the PM space. I had been to that site before, because it was pointed out by DeepPurpleHaze on here, and I agree many of the “Experts” have been wrong more than they’ve been right, but I may never have gotten into investing in Silver coins back in 2008 if it wasn’t for David Morgan’s promotion of the space. I’ve learned in the past from listening and reading James Turk, Stewart Thompson, Bill Holter, and even the controversial Martin Armstrong. I’ve enjoyed listing to KWN interviews from John Embry. As for the the more fringe sited like Steve “St. Angelo” SRSRocco & Silver Doctors – they’re a bit more conspiratorial at times, but there are times I’m in the mood for infotainment, and they do interview a number of great guests and post good articles on their sites sometimes.
I don’t expect people to be perfect, and there have been “Seasons” where those people have been right on, and times they’ve been dead wrong. I like them each in their own season.
Excelsior:
We try to post all those who might be right. I’m not fixed on my belief that I hold some special knowledge and no one else does but it’s really funny for me to see how guys like Martin Armstrong who can be so dismissive of others but has gotten it so wrong so many times. Certainly he’s not in the Polny class but it’s remarkable to me that Harry Dent and Martin Armstrong seem to think that they have some giant claim to fame and have gotten it so wrong. They are far better at marketing than forecasting.
And don’t get all puffed up about it but you and Mathew would set up a subscription service it would be better than 70% of the people I post and 100% of the people I don’t post. You both are remarkable and I just hope the rest of the readers appreciate all that you do as I do.
Thanks Bob M. I do agree that Bo Polony and Harry Dent are in a subclass of their own and Martin Armstrong’s fame is a bit over-rated based on his past calls and cyber AI narrative.
For the record, I spend a heck of lot more time reading the people you feature on http://www.321gold.com PRECISELY because you are so selective in who you feature and I like the majority of the articles, technicians, fundamentals, and companies featured. In my mind I read a lot of articles, opinion, and websites each day to keep the ax sharp, but when I know you’re a speed reader and go through 100’s a day, and you have top discernment and critical thinking skills engaged at warp speed, then I figure if it gets posted on your site, its worth checking out. It is appreciated sir.
Also, in a recent article of yours on Nexus Gold, I like one passage you wrote in particular, and felt it summed up the KE Report and their speakers & guests as well.
“As a matter of simple logic, the purpose of a press release is to communicate. Not to inform but to communicate, and there is a big difference. If you ask web designers to give you one word that describes what a website is supposed to do they will almost always give you one of two different words. People think of the web either as information or communication. Those who think of the web as information make lousy web designers. A telephone book is information. A telephone is communication. Big difference between the two.” — Bob Moriarty
It’s fun to tap in to the great “communicators” like Big Al, Cory, Chris Temple, Rick Ackerman, Doc, and LPG and the rest of the KER Crew. Good stuff!
I can see why you saved that quote, Ex. It provides good food for thought in general, not just as it pertains to press releases.
Yes, 321gold is an excellent site and the background color Bob chose is much easier on the eyes than the usual white that most others use.
+2
Bob’s site is also a lot easier to pick out on my favorites because of his numbers. I always start the day with his site. DT
Excelsior:
That’s very kind of you. Thank you.
I have known the fellow running Gold Seek and Silver Seek for probably 15 years. Many years ago I suggested to him that a web site is not measured by who they post but by who they don’t post. I fear it didn’t sink in.
We do try to get it right. If you ever have anything you want posted, send it.
Well done and will do.
Double Ditto to Ex, and Matthew. DT
Well said, Robert Moriarty, about Excelsior and Matthew being remarkable and setting up a subscription service,i agree 100%.
(Don´t do it, Matthew and Excelsior,i would hate to see you leave this Place 🙂
Absolutely. Matthew and Excelsior offer so much information it’s more than I can take in. But I’m learning :-). Many thanks to you both!
Thanks guys. Always fun to share investing ideas here on the KER. We all have a very collaborative group here, and everyone brings interesting ideas to the table.
Cheers!
Very few “gold gurus” are correct at major turning points. I only recall a couple (e.g., Bob Moriarty, Adam Hamilton) being concerned about a significant top back in 2011. There may have been others, but I couldn’t tell you who they are.
When gold/gold stocks topped back in 1980, it took 24 years for precious metals equity to break even again. That is likely a worst case scenario and circumstances are much different today. I.e., we shouldn’t have to wait until 2035 for the HUI to return to its 2011 high.
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/adhoc/gold.htm
Still, one can take advantage of the volatility to buy when gold stocks are hated and sell when they get overheated. Rinse and repeat.
I couldn’t find a current chart, but gold is currently undervalued when compared to U.S. and Global Debt levels. But it can (and has) taken years to play catchup. Most precious metals stocks will be quite profitable with a gold price above $1,250 as has been discussed here as the key hurdle. I’ll be a monkey’s uncle if that doesn’t happen this year.
Final anecdotal thought. In talking to extended family over the Christmas holiday, out of over a dozen people, NONE of them own gold, gold stocks, or any precious metals. Most of these folks are above average in income, education and intelligence. Yet, a couple of them were sure touting real estate back in 2007. When they start touting gold, I will gladly sell it to them.
AS GLOBAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY GROWS, GEOTHERMAL ENERGY HEATS UP
“Power producers around the world are increasingly turning their attention to the heat beneath our feet.”
“Alterra Power Corp. is a leading global renewable energy company, managing eight power plants totaling 825 MW of generation capacity including British Columbia’s largest run-of-river hydro facility and largest wind farm, the recently completed Shannon and Jimmie Creek projects, two geothermal facilities in Iceland and a solar facility in Indiana. Alterra owns a 385 MW share of this capacity, generating over 1,700 GWh of clean power annually. Alterra also has an extensive portfolio of exploration and development projects and a skilled team of developers, builders and operators to support its growth plans.”
Alterra Power – Corporate Presentation:
Pg 5 shows their Geothermal projects with the red bullseyes.
always about the tax incentives…….see page 9……political as always
Main thing on Alterra……….the Iceland expertise , but, …….Kokomo project is only dirt ,
If, it gets exciting , I will put BOOTs on the ground.
I do like the geothermo projects………. and thanks for posting all the info…..
Yes, Ross Beatty worked hard to secure all those Icelandic Geothermal projects, but in a recent interview he was more interested in the Solar, Wind, Hydro side of the business moving forward.
I couldn’t find that interview, but I did find this Ross Beatty interview from Mines & Money:
Ross Beaty Discusses How to Be Successful in Mining Investing
Dec 15, 2016
Ross Beaty, founder and Chairman of Pan American Silver Corp. (TSE:PAA) and Alterra Power Corp. (TSE:AXY), took the time to speak with SmallCapPower at Mines and Money London, providing some tips about successful mining investing and offering up insight into why he took a ‘green turn’ to deliver clean energy. “It’s not that hard,” he said, noting that he was also looking for investment opportunities at the conference.
you should tell him the sun only shines 1/3 of the time in Indiana…..and solar Kokomo is going to be a questionable project……..jmho
That’s why I’m investing in Lithium & Copper & Nickel – Ross is going to need to utilize Back Up Batteries to store energy for when the sun don’t shine.
“U.S. Geothermal Inc. is a leading and profitable renewable energy company focused on the development, production and sale of electricity from geothermal energy. The company is currently operating geothermal power projects at: Neal Hot Springs, Oregon; San Emidio, Nevada; and Raft River, Idaho for a total power generation of approximately 45 MWs. The company is also developing an additional 90 MW’s of projects at: the Geysers, California; a second phase project at San Emidio, Nevada; Crescent Valley, Nevada; and the El Ceibillo project located near Guatemala City, Guatemala. ”
US Geothermal – Corporate Presenation:
http://www.usgeothermal.com/PDF/FINAL%20Corp%20Presentation%20Q3%202016_PDF_Version_091316.pdf
this is more interesting than gold or silver……..
It’s a unique business model, but there are a few interesting companies like this that have a sustainable business model set up.
I like both the Resource sector and the Energy sector. People need stuff, and they need energy to power their stuff.
ditto…….I agree……
this is a well proven renewable………Idaho has been doing this for many years…..I remember looking at these projects in the 70’s
Some of these have been around for a while, but the leading companies have gone out and consolidate a few different projects under one roof. Strength in numbers.
or govt funding does help
noticed some of the funding thur goldman sakers………. 🙂
Algonquin Power has 3 Thermal Projects , along with wind, solar, hydro:
Thermal is a slightly different animal in that they are burning up some other fuel source to power boiling water and the steam turns the turbines, but I thought I’d throw it up as another alternate power company.
are you sure .?.”concerning burning up other fuel”?….. the boilers are fueled from hot water springs direct from the earth……or at least these are the projects I am aware of….
OR…..are you just talking Algonquin Power?
Politics is going to determine which way we go………big oil vs renewable…..
This is “Thermal” and not “Geothermal” that you are referencing. The rest of the companies posted have Geothermal assets but Algonquin burns saw dust that it gets from a mill as waste. There are some “Thermal” plants that burn Bamboo as well. It is not as clean as Geothermal, but it is a rising trend in developing nations. Many times these plants are utilizing some other businesses waste and using it for fuel instead of it going into trash heap. There are mixed opinions about it though, but it isn’t as dirty as coal. There are forms of power generation I like better, but just throwing the information out there for consideration.
I agree that Politics will determine the direction of the energy market, but I keep a Global mindset in place, and consider the trends being pushed out all the countries on our little planet. 🙂
thanks for the follow up………on clarification thermal/ geothermal …..early morning and not quite awake ….
Globally we are copy cats on energy…….many of these new thought up ideas have been played in other parts of the world for many years.
Agreed. This is one area where Europe has been a leader, and Asia and S. America are following in their footsteps. The US has been powered by Coal, Oil/NatGas, and Nuclear, but will eventually add more renewable energy into the mix as Coal is being widely cut back with plans to phase it out over the next decade or two.
the little people will always need to consider big oil and big money……and the direction which does not upset the apple cart to much……
A number of Big Oil companies are going in big on Solar & Wind. They’re going to get their pound of flesh from Joe Six Pack and Sally Soccer Mom….. one way or another.
or get that govt backing for free………
It is always about the TAX INCENTIVES>…….
Agreed. These tax incentives may be changing one direction here in the US, but think about all of developing Asia, Europe, South America, Central America, India, the Middle East, Australia, Africa…..
My position on Energy is to deal with the global trends, regardless of my personal vantage point, and even if feel the “Carbon Tax” is a bit of racket. These other Energy inputs from Renewable Energy (Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro, Tidal, Run of River, etc…) are just a growing part of the mix. I agree with your previous comments that they’ve been trying to get some of these ideas off the ground for a long time, but they are finally getting traction after several decades of floundering. It is not my primary focus in Energy (as I’m mostly in Uranium, Lithium and Oil) but I still want a few fishing poles in the water with renewable energy.
determining the political climate……will be the key to many of these new projects.
some of these projects, outside the US will be a no brainer……..if the management team is correct.
if hilly and billy and the franks can be determined in advance……. 🙂
The UN initiatives, the Paris agreement, the hype in Switzerland last year are all part of the new political climate….. That’s why I’m interested in getting in front of the trend before it becomes more widely implemented. 😉
Again, I’m not saying i wholeheartedly agree with it philosophically, but a multi-millionaire friend of mine told me a long time ago:
“You don’t have to like the smell of gasoline to own 15 gas stations in your part of the country. You don’t have to like a McDonalds hamburger to realize that owning 10 of their franchises would be a nice business proposition.”
Ditto………agree 100%
In this case, I find some of these new ideas in energy at least interesting to consider, and if they make financial sense (without any government subsidies) then they are a real business. If the subsidies move their direction then that would just be icing on the cake.
Many of the issues in Energy are because companies that are not economic thrive on only government subsidies. Another challenge is when subsidies flood into one sector, and this prices out another sector that doesn’t get the subsidies and can’t compete. This reliance on subsidies or imbalance makes things in the Energy space quite irrational, and squashes the free market concepts of competition and true price/value discovery.
I’m a big fan of energy companies being able to stand on their own 2 feet and provide profitable base load power, without intervention from the nanny state or government training wheels.
one reason I like geothermo…….many of the problems associated with renewables are eliminated…….
I agree that it is a much longer life power generation, and is more constant unlike wind and solar.
Polaris Infrastructure owns and operates a single operating asset – San Jacinto Geothermal power plant Located in Nicaragua, but has other exploration targets to expand their operations:
Polaris Infrastructure Corporate Presentation:
http://polarisinfrastructure.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/PIF-Corp-Presentation-2016-11-14.pdf
Calpine Corporation has over 80 different power plants of various types but they are also:
– Largest operator of combined heat and power (cogeneration) technology in America
• Largest geothermal power producer in America
Calpine Corporation – Corporate Presentation:
http://s2.q4cdn.com/871785789/files/doc_presentations/2016/CPN-December-2016-Investor-Meetings.pdf
“Ormat Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: ORA) is a world leader in the geothermal power plant sector. As a geothermal company we have three decades of experience in the development of state-of-the-art, environmentally sound power solutions, primarily in geothermal and recovered energy generation. In addition to designing, developing, building, owning and operating geothermal energy and recovered energy-based power plants in the United States and other countries, Ormat also designs, manufactures and sells power units and other power generating equipment for geothermal power plants and recovered energy-based electricity generation.”
Ormat Technologies – Corporate Presentation:
http://investor.ormat.com/Cache/1001217696.PDF?Y=&O=PDF&D=&fid=1001217696&T=&iid=4087066
“Cyrq Energy has the reputation for operating geothermal energy power plants in very challenging circumstances. Finding, developing and managing a geothermal resource to its full potential is difficult when one relies on the invisible heat beneath the earth for a long-term fuel supply. Cyrq Energy has developed the proven expertise to fully develop, operate and manage successful power plants for the long term. Cyrq Energy is often called upon to address and fix difficult underperforming geothermal sites. ”
Cyrq Energy Projects Overview:
“Terra-Gen owns 1051 MWs (net equity) of wind, geothermal and solar generating capacity in operation across 25 renewable power facilities throughout the Western United States with a focus on the California Marketplace. ”
Terra-Gen Power Projects overview:
Enel Green Power has a various power plants in Solar, Wind, Biomass, Geothermal and Hydroelectric:
Here is the Enel Green Power – Geothermal Projects
https://www.enelgreenpower.com/en/gallery-articles/a201611-geothermal.html
Good one, thanks !
Hi Brian. Keep us posted if you come across any interesting energy opportunities. It’s a big sector, but these were just a few Geothermal companies to mention since Steele raised the topic.
“BHE Renewables’ geothermal facilities operate as CalEnergy Operations and are based in Calipatria, California. The company owns 10 geothermal facilities in California’s Imperial Valley that have the capacity to produce up to 338 megawatts. Its natural gas-fueled plants include a 551-megawatt plant in Illinois, a 240-megawatt plant in New York, a 212-megawatt plant in Texas and a 50-megawatt plant in Arizona.”
BHE Renewables – Corporate Fact Sheet: (part of Cal Energy, that is part of Berkshire Hathaway)
I think you have renewed some energy in me………….concerning geothermo… 🙂
Thanks, It was a fun weekend side tangent on a part of the Energy sector that doesn’t get as much fanfare or coverage. Fun times!
Another good one, CFS, thanks.
I’ve been doubting the oil chart I posted a week or two ago, but between this article, and the outlook in bonds, the odds of this scenario happening seem decent.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p77581596775&a=497576455
I haven’t modified it from how I posted it before, but I think the target price is between $35 and $39.
Another uranium has bottomed article.
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2017-01-13/The-Uranium-Miner-Sector-Has-Bottomed.html
The following chart says a lot (I was tempted to say ‘says it all’) to me. A simple trend line from the top (blue dashed) and two sets of speed lines (black and purple) all mark the low. Additionally, we now have a very clear ‘higher low and higher high’ in place, and volume has skyrocketed. Indicators, while entering overbought, are still looking strong.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17928850387&a=499818847
Likewise, in U.TO, a proxy for the uranium price, while we don’t have a higher low, much less a higher high, again, drawing on the charts, lines tend to converge on the recent low, and the indicators are strong.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=U.TO&p=W&st=2003-01-05&en=today&id=p28895078082&a=495637444
GH – Great URA chart.
Rambus gives a technical analysis argument for the bear case in gold, in case anyone wants to wade through it. I must admit, I had to skim it:
http://www.safehaven.com/article/43378/weekend-report-part-2what-if-gold-has-a-drop-dead-line
In my opinion, this is an instance of confusing the picture with complexity.
The takeaway, which I do think is of value:
“The bottom line is that if the 1100 area at neckline #2 gives way a major long term top will be in place, and big patterns equals big moves.”
So far, we gold is avoiding his bear scenario.
Does anybody following (RCG) (GDPEF) Resource Capital Gold Corp have any info on when they are going to announce going back into Gold Production at Dufferin?
Here was a passage from their November press release:
“November 9, 2016 – Resource Capital Gold Corp., TSXV:RCG is pleased to provide this update on its operations scheduled to recommence in January, 2017 at the Dufferin Gold Mine located in Nova Scotia, Canada. The Company is preparing for commencement of milling operations beginning with stockpiled materials followed by the full recommencement of full mining operations in early 2017.”
Great thing about renewable investments…….at least they are not smashed on a daily basis……… OOTB
Great point. Most of the investors in this space are longer term value investors, and not hot money, and it isn’t tied up with the interest rates or currency markets like the precious metals are. Most of these projects are longer term “slow and stead wins the race” platforms. Like with Alterra Power – I’m interested to see where Ross Beaty grows it over the next 3-10 years. Just another arrow in the quiver so to speak.
I left you a note above on the Kokomo Indiana project……where the sun does not shine, ……except a 1/3 of the time….. 🙂
That’s why I’m investing in Lithium & Copper & Nickel – Ross is going to need to utilize Back Up Batteries to store energy for when the sun don’t shine.
ha,ha………good one……..
😉
The Great Royalty Freak Out
Global Mining Observer
Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, Silver Wheaton, Sandstorm Gold, Altius Minerals, Aurico Metals, Anglo Pacific, Abitibi Royalties (so by default Golden Valley).
http://www.globalminingobserver.com/royalty-freak-out-part-2-176-year-in-numbers
great info inside………thanks.
Is this a scam? Why woukd a CEO of a massive company offer a service like this- sounds like c rap to me. Any thoughts?
if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck…….might be a duck……..jmho
Not sure why Keith needs the money…….especially as a corporate officer running a public traded company…..seems to cross the lines to me.
Thanks guys. Auryn’s Ivan Bebeck lives and breathes his company and is fast approaching the ethos and success of CEO Keith Neumeyer. Am glad I doubled my holding pre Christmas and may well double up further in the near future.