Daily Market Wrap – Tue 8 Aug, 2017

Updated comments for Oil, USD, and Gold

On today’s market I take a quick look at the charts for oil, USD, and Gold. Being in the middle of summer makes me believe that we will not see any major breakouts or breakdowns but with a potential recent reversal in a number of markets my outlook for the next couple months is not all that great for the commodities. What could change it all is more infrastructure spending talk but that is something I am chatting with Chris Temple about on this weekend’s show.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Cory Fleck
View related posts on: , ,

  1. On August 8, 2017 at 2:41 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    “breakout or breakdown.”……….now that is the real question.

    • On August 9, 2017 at 5:15 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      gold looking good today……WED…….this morning anyway……

  2. On August 8, 2017 at 2:44 pm,
    spanky says:

    HL’s daily chart MAs are now in perfectly bearish alignment. short it on any bounce.

  3. On August 8, 2017 at 2:45 pm,
    CFS says:

    I believe you are wrong about oil Cory. Saudi simply CANNOT afford lower oil prices with its pending sale of Saudi ARAMCO. I believe Saudi will reduce production as needed to boost oil prices.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 3:02 pm,
      Bob UK says:

      No, they will start a fire fight directly with Iran IMPO. Heck, even Russia if it means they get their 2 trillion from the float.

      • On August 8, 2017 at 3:37 pm,
        CFS says:

        I believe Iran has now purchased nuclear bombs/material from Pakistan.

        Saudi may have a few neutron bombs. (There is at least one claim Saudi used a neutron bomb in Yemen)
        Iran, I believe, has enough fire-power to prevent any Saudi attack.

  4. On August 8, 2017 at 3:00 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    I was reading a couple of the online ‘gurus’ today and noticed that they were talking about the copper stocks that they are apparently currently making a lot of money from. Hmm…

    So I did some googling and the two in question – not named, not been on this site – were pushing out articles between April and, well, mid July using copper charts as an example of a coming decline in the commodity complex due to credit contraction.

    There is a lot of bull-shysters out there isn’t there?

    I only mention it as I think that copper will soon begin to head back down as the USD starts rising and, alas, that a rising USD will be bad for both precious and base metals. Oil also. The only thing that will save it, as Cory pointed out, is some infrastructure announcement from Trump.

    I have been of the mindset that the US conventionals are exhausted and about to give us a up to 10% correction in the coming weeks. I have been standing aside waiting. But…

    I have come around to the view that if the markets think that a USD rally is going to begin, and be sustained into the Autumn, that we will see a flood of money from outside the US flood into US stocks – and we get this crazy melt-up in things like semi-conductors, FANGs, perhaps bio, etc.

    As Chris V said earlier on today it is not impossible that we see both precious and base metal mining stocks revisiting their 2016 lows by the end of the year.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 3:51 pm,
      JohnK says:

      Earlier this year Mr T, Chris Temple talked about the biggest Copper opportunity in decades in Equador. Unfortunately I’m not a subscriber to Chris’s newsletter,but his subscribers have gotten the “skinny” on this. I believe the company is Cornerstone Capital Resources.CGP.V currently trading at .46 CAD. They are a prime takeover target. They are going to spin out the non-Cascabel assets so not to be included in a take over deal.
      Definately one to have on your radar.

      • On August 8, 2017 at 4:17 pm,
        JohnK says:

        Tale of the Ticker: CTNXF Cornerstone Capital Res. moves on volume. 6 hours ago.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 10:17 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Correct. Mr T gave us all a heads up on Cascabel quite some time ago and he did confirm that Cornerstone Capital and SolGold were the companies he was discussing in Ecuador.

          This pair has been all the rage over at ceo.ca the last few months, but most of the move is priced in at this point. The copper resource is supposed to be quite large though and Tier 1 from all the chatter.

      • On August 9, 2017 at 12:22 am,
        Bob UK says:

        Just for the record – I was not referring to Chris T in my above comment.

        • On August 9, 2017 at 7:47 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Just for the record, I saw you mention Chris V. (not T) up above my comments were still on the Copper topic and I was responding to JohnK’s comments about Mr. Temple did call the move in Ecuador far in advance. Cornerstone Capital / Solgold was one of the better calls anyone made on the Copper space lately, and Mr. T’s trip to Ecuador was perfectly times IMO.

          I track a list of about 180 Copper companies and did post it on here in full about a week or two ago, and the odd are the companies you are seeing discussed were on it. Many of them have been on absolute tear, and Dr Copper has been stronger than most were expecting. That’s good for the whole commodity space.

      • On August 9, 2017 at 1:48 am,
        Tad says:

        Cornerstone is a SPROTT tip as well.

        • On August 9, 2017 at 7:49 am,
          Excelsior says:

          There are a few big Hedge Funds that have been all over their story as well, and on ceo.ca or stockhouse investors on team Cornerstone or team SolGold have been at each others throats all year long. Very entertaining:


  5. On August 8, 2017 at 3:04 pm,
    spanky says:

    Beautiful bearish black candle in EXK today. Pain not even close to being over. Any recovery from here is just going to give it more energy to make a lower low.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 3:46 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Lousy 5 yr chart………might be headed to 1.08

      • On August 8, 2017 at 3:47 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        silver for the people……….lol

    • On August 9, 2017 at 7:53 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I’ll keep accumulating it while it’s in the Pain Zone. Money isn’t made by waiting for everyone to stand up and high five each other a stock…… it is made far before that point when the asset is unloved, forgotten, or punished disproportionately. That seems to be where EXK is at present, and that makes me more and more interested in owning it.

      • On August 9, 2017 at 7:56 am,
        JohnK says:

        Farming 101 Remember?
        Planting the seeds and reaping the harvest.

        • On August 9, 2017 at 2:31 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes indeed. Planting and harvesting is the name of the game. Always has been since ancient times….

  6. On August 8, 2017 at 3:52 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    KIM…..now says to Donald…….he thinks he might bomb GUAM…….

    • On August 8, 2017 at 3:58 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      RED ALERT……..commie coming….to bomb the world…..send over Dennis Rodman and have him give a basketball lesson to Kim to calm him down.

  7. On August 8, 2017 at 4:04 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Yellen no longer using Labor Market Condition Index..zh……..did she ever……..

    • On August 9, 2017 at 10:01 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Labor Market phony……….unemployment is still 22%…… the numbers are coming back to bite her in the rear.

      • On August 9, 2017 at 10:02 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Can anyone say….AUDIT THE FED>>>>>>>>

  8. On August 8, 2017 at 4:24 pm,
    spanky says:

    $gold:$silver weekly MACD flipping positive. New multi-year high is incoming.

    2016’s drop in the ratio was literally a blip on the weekly chart–just a mild correction to keep bulls somewhat honest. All the major MA’s are still bullishly aligned, sloping upwards and strongly suggesting new heights soon.

    • On August 8, 2017 at 4:28 pm,
      spanky says:

      Sorry, was referring to the monthly $gold:$silver chart.

  9. On August 8, 2017 at 4:27 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    ICO……….46 in line for funding, 206 more to come on line…….zh

    • On August 8, 2017 at 4:27 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      More beanie babies and tulip bulbs…….. lol

      • On August 8, 2017 at 4:47 pm,
        JohnK says:

        OOTB Jerry:
        Tulip Bulbs and beanie babies for those with no crypto.
        Ctrl….. Ctrl …… for the rest of us.
        Never Invest more than you can afford to lose.
        Remember the joy is not how much you get, but rather how much you give to those less fortunate than yourself.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 5:27 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Hum Bug………. 🙂

  10. On August 8, 2017 at 5:38 pm,
    JohnK says:

    Crypto Currency is about divorcing yourself from an anachronistic financial system that has never missed an opportunity to abuse you.
    And that makes it worth understanding.
    Life is hard.
    It’s harder when your stupid……………….John Wayne

  11. On August 8, 2017 at 5:39 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    ditto……on “and that makes it worth understanding”

  12. On August 8, 2017 at 5:50 pm,
    JohnK says:

    Three reasons to own crypto currency.
    1. The CIA Act of 1949. Exempting the CIA from many of the usual limitations on the use of Federal Funds.
    2. Executive order #12631 signed March 18,1988 by President Ronald Reagan.”Plunge Protection Group” No minutes or records of trade to be made Public.
    3.The unaudited Federal Reserve

    • On August 8, 2017 at 7:09 pm,
      CFS says:

      Reasons not to own cryptos.

      1. Red flag to IRS and any government agency interested in money laundering.
      2. Potential problem of getting back out into fiat.
      3. The “crypto” part can be broken by a fast enough computer. Your “private” address is not as private as you think or wish.

      • On August 8, 2017 at 7:28 pm,
        JohnK says:

        And the three things you have just quoted have come from personal experience?
        Have you personally ever exchanged Crypto for cash or for that matter ever open a wallet and purchased crypto’s.
        And while your at it you could please explain who has the fast computer and how can I get one?
        The IRS is the IRS. I’ve dealt with them before and certainly not afraid to have to deal with them again.

        • On August 8, 2017 at 10:43 pm,
          CFS says:

          There are obviously no problems with exchanges at this time. (Although some do limit the rate at which cryptos may be converted back to fiat.) But the exchanges are the weak point which governments would attack.
          I did purchase some ethereum (ETH) using BTC a few months ago. It sits in my ethereum wallet off-line. (I have not used it to trade or anything) I have not purchased any ICOs.
          Only parallel-operating quantum computers have sufficient capability to break currently-used cryptography. US and Chinese governments only have the capability to my knowledge. (Even then it would only be cost-effective to track money-laundering at the tens of millions of dollars level, or to bring down an exchange.)

          • On August 8, 2017 at 11:05 pm,
            CFS says:

            The speed needed to decrypt in reasonable time is tens of PetaFLOPS, i.e. tens of thousands of teraFLOPS.
            The computer which I’m using is maybe running at a gigaFLOP, so I’m at least 10^7 too slow.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 1:54 am,
            Tad says:

            Cool. I see why they call you the professor!

          • On August 9, 2017 at 5:11 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            RUSSIA Launches $100 billion BITCOIN….Mining Operation…..zh……note to cfs….

          • On August 9, 2017 at 5:13 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Clif High did say bitcoin…to $13,000 by next year…..(see or listen at usawatchdog)

          • On August 9, 2017 at 6:42 am,
            JohnK says:

            Thanks for the comeback.
            I grow tired of those who preach fear.
            How long will the so-called experts be wrong this time?

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:25 am,
            CFS says:

            I’m a little skeptical over the Russian Mining Coin….it looks more of a fund-raising (possible scam) than a mining operation.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:52 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Russians are not going to be left out……..Iron curtain block chain…..

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:55 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            US GOVT……will not be able to FREEZE block chain transactions……..The FED and CENTRAL BANKS have screwed up……the cat is out of the bag…….

    • On August 9, 2017 at 7:46 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:


      • On August 9, 2017 at 7:58 am,
        JohnK says:

        Thanks Jerry.
        The list goes on and on.

        • On August 9, 2017 at 9:28 am,
          CFS says:

          I’m not saying don’t buy cryptos. I’m just warning there will be governmental reactions and they will not be pretty.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:43 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I would agree with the govt wanting to get it’s nasty little hands on anything and everything….

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:43 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Dang govt is full of corruption………Fed is one big scam…..

          • On August 9, 2017 at 10:00 am,
            JohnK says:

            Were all old enough here .We got our Big Boy pants on.
            The sun came up this morning.

  13. On August 8, 2017 at 6:58 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Why can’t The US use a drone with 100’s of insect drones inside to visit Kim in North Korea. Those nasty insect drones that hide in the crevices, AI is so interesting but I really think it now can never be contained. DT

  14. On August 8, 2017 at 7:13 pm,
    CFS says:
  15. On August 8, 2017 at 8:10 pm,
    GH says:

    Lots of classic literature available in pdf format for free:


    • On August 8, 2017 at 8:11 pm,
      GH says:
          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:55 am,
            GH says:

            I particularly enjoyed this one.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 8:40 am,
            JohnK says:

            Point taken Shad.
            Forgot about the newbees.
            And if were going to be talking about light bulbs going off,perhaps a reference to Nicholas Tesla is in order. Another Great man who died penniless but left his accomplishments for all of us to enjoy.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 2:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, I’m a huge fan of Tesla. A brilliant mind very ahead of his time….

        • On August 8, 2017 at 8:30 pm,
          CFS says:

          Of course, we should remember Jesse Livermore died penniless.
          Bulls may win, Bears may win, but pigs get slaughtered.

          • On August 8, 2017 at 10:14 pm,
            Excelsior says:


          • On August 9, 2017 at 4:32 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Maybe Jesse sat on his hands to long……

          • On August 9, 2017 at 5:14 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            maybe Livermore, should have started some bitcoining operation…..

          • On August 9, 2017 at 6:49 am,
            GH says:

            Jim Sinclair denies that is the true story about Livermore…

          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            He should have bought on the dips and trimmed or sold on the rips. 🙂

          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:18 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Instead he died as the Old Turkey.

            Also, people love to pull out these Jesse Livermore quotes all the time but miss the point that he wasn’t investing in Junior Miners (that you don’t typically buy and hold).

            Commodities, Precious Metals, Energy Stocks, and even BioTech are EXTREMELY volatile, and are nothing like investing in calm Blue Chip stocks or Utilities. Most miners have a life-cycle where they pop pre-discovery on pure speculation or newsletter promotion, and then calm down. Next they spike big time if they hit good Exploration results, and then fade down as the deposit gets more an more advanced and the company works on boring things like permitting, construction and financing. However there is then the next spike (that Louis James is dubbing the “Golden Runway”) that has been understood for years as the ramp up in share prices when the miner is getting reading to go into production. After the initial euphoria wears off from going into the production, the company often sells down in a big way again (and normally there are start up challenges). Then a few quarters later, the company works through their initial challenges, improves the grades mined, throughput, crushing, milling, flotation….. and the stock starts to move again. Lastly, as a more establish producer they can move with the underlying commodity prices up and down like a buoy on the ocean, or they can start a new Exploration campaign, advance a Development stage property, or go shopping and acquire another company.

            Bottom line, these stocks will move up and down 20% 40% 70% offering multiple opportunities to buy low and sell high, and it is often the retail crowd that bought high on positive sentiment and then watches their investment get cut in half or go down by 2/3 that starts quoting Jessie Livermore, and that they’ll be laughing in the end by being Old Turkeys. What they are is screwed, and they should have sold into the overbought conditions and bough back in the oversold conditions.

            These stocks are like Microsoft or Coca Cola or Walmart. They are going to have several crazy spikes and sell-downs depending on where they are in the mining life cycle, and buying and holding may work, but it could also blow up if investors are applying Livermore quotes to Explorers and Developers. They are apples and oranges.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:20 am,
            Excelsior says:

            correction: These mining stocks are NOT like Microsoft Coca Cola or Walmart…..

            They are a roller-coaster, and so entries and exits on the ride are the key.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:22 am,
            Excelsior says:
          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:33 am,
            JohnK says:

            Good commentary Shad:
            It’s funny how the narrative continues through history.
            During J.Livermores time there were no rules against short selling,thus the bear raid.
            Do I suspect their was collusion? Well of course.
            Like you said Shad, you have to be able to sleep with yourself.
            People will always remember who was the first man to walk on the moon,but who knows who was the first geologist to walk on the moon? Dr. Harrison Schmidt.
            I think I’ve heard enough already about Tulip Bulbs,Beanie Babies,Jesse Livermore………………..etc……………etc.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:52 am,
            GH says:

            It’s been a while since I read it, but I found Reminiscences very entertaining, and with plenty of insight into markets and men.

            Point well taken, Shad, about the inapplicability of some of his points to the natural resource game. Greenhorns look for rules of thumb, but don’t yet know enough to know how to apply them. This makes it easy to get in big trouble if one hasn’t taken in the wisdom of “do your learning with small money”.

            Below was about all I could find r.e. Jim Sinclair’s version of Livermore. I don’t have the link for the referred audio, though I did listen to it at the time.

            Jesse Livermore – “They Miss The Big Movements.”
            One of the greatest traders in the history of the world was Jesse Livermore. He was rumored to have died broke, that is patently false. Jim Sinclair’s father, Bert Seligman, (also one of the greatest traders in history) was business partners with Jesse Livermore, and Sinclair (in one of his KWN interviews) let listeners know that Jesse was an extraordinarily wealthy man, all the way to the end of his life. Fortunately his lessons from the markets were chronicled and are available for those who are willing to learn.
            September 6, 2010

          • On August 9, 2017 at 8:01 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks JohnK – yes, we are well stocked up on cliche’s here with Tulips, Beanie Babies and Jesse quotes. However, there may be new investors reading the blog that are just now discovering those topics so it may turn on a light bulb for them.

            GH – Great points, and yes, that is the message I was trying to communicate that extrapolating Livermore’s techniques in the general stock indexes don’t always translate well into the Jr Mining sector (in fact buying and holding earlier stage companies like an Old Turkey will make many investors Roadkill). 🙂

            Thanks for the post from Sinclair clearing up some of the debate about how wealthy Jesse was when he passed away. He also could have sandbagged money aside in tangible assets over time (building his wealth) but still cleared out his trading account at the end. This is why it is good to take chips off the table and store them in real estate or physical hard assets along the path.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 8:03 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            We just keep hanging around for the BIG MOVEMENT………

          • On August 9, 2017 at 8:53 am,
            JohnK says:

            One more try.
            Point taken Shad.
            Forgot about the newbees.
            And if were going to be talking about light bulbs going off,perhaps a reference to Nicholas Tesla is in order. Another Great man who died penniless but left his accomplishments for all of us to enjoy.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 2:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, JohnK – Agreed. I’m a huge fan of Tesla. A brilliant mind very ahead of his time….

  16. On August 8, 2017 at 9:39 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    I just witnessed what Trump said and it was quite cringe worthy. Its almost as if hes reading off an actors script. Such lines and quotes surely dont belong on the worlds political stage. Warranted or not, such behaviour is reckless and purposely provocative.

  17. On August 8, 2017 at 10:13 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Live: Investors snatch up gold and Japanese yen as storms brew over Korean Peninsula
    David Reid, Spriha Srivastava, Luke Graham – 31 Mins Ago


  18. On August 9, 2017 at 5:10 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    RUSSIA LAUNCHES $100 billion BITCOIN……Mining Operation…..zh

    • On August 9, 2017 at 6:18 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:


    • On August 9, 2017 at 7:49 am,
      JohnK says:

      Jerry, that should say 100 million.

        • On August 9, 2017 at 7:59 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          I just thought the article was a great follow up to yesterday conversation ……

          • On August 9, 2017 at 8:00 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            There is a lot more to BITCOIN than Peter Schiff knows……….jmo

          • On August 9, 2017 at 8:16 am,
            JohnK says:

            Everybody has their day in the Sun including P. Schiff. That doesn’t necessarily make them right on everything by default.
            At some time you have to stop listening to others and start thinking for yourself.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:45 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Already done that 30 yrs ago……….

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:47 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            135 gurus…..in the market, that do not know crap………..jmo

      • On August 9, 2017 at 7:58 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Oh, sorry……thanks for the correction………….ootb

  19. On August 9, 2017 at 6:14 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    PRODUCTIVITY WORST since 1982…..figures revised……..zh

  20. On August 9, 2017 at 6:18 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    FAKE NEWS for 100 yrs……..FT and Govt coverup ……London news lied about war bonds in 1914 for the govt….and admits to same. Why, should we believe them now…..zh

  21. On August 9, 2017 at 6:58 am,
    JohnK says:
  22. On August 9, 2017 at 6:59 am,
    JohnK says:
  23. On August 9, 2017 at 7:02 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Zinc climbs as Chinese Steel prices surge
    Commodity News – 07/08/2017

    “Zinc prices have clawed higher, getting a boost from another surge in Chinese steel prices and from investors who are still bullish about shortages of the metal developing.

    Zinc pared gains, however, and other metals were pressured into negative territory after strong US jobs data sent the dollar to a one-week peak.

    Chinese rebar steel futures jumped 4 per cent to their highest in four years on Friday, reflecting firm demand for the building material in the world’s top consumer.

    Zinc is often influenced by steel prices since its biggest use is for galvanising steel.

    Some investors have become wary about zinc’s bull story after Chinese output unexpectedly rose 17 per cent month-on-month in June despite last year’s closures and suspensions in zinc mines, said analyst Vivienne Lloyd at Macquarie.

    “That’s made people wonder whether the expectation of zinc cuts has been too optimistic and in fact the Chinese smelters are able to continue to produce at stronger levels than expected,” she said.

    “We tend to think that one month’s print isn’t enough to ruin the bull story, but it has caught our attention … I think people today are looking at whether it has been carried down too far and are thinking about entry points.”


  24. On August 9, 2017 at 7:55 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    FBI Storm troopers raid Manafort’s home in early dawn………looking for anything they can to stump the Trump……

    • On August 9, 2017 at 7:56 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Why didn’t they raid Hilly’s office for 33,000 emails………give me a break

      • On August 9, 2017 at 8:08 am,
        JohnK says:

        Birds of a feather stick together.
        Want to flock?

  25. On August 9, 2017 at 8:06 am,
    spanky says:

    Yesterday I said GDXJ could test its declining 50 hour MA yesterday (and that that would be a good shorting opportunity). That’s is exactly what it has done today. It looks pretty sick to me.


    • On August 9, 2017 at 1:15 pm,
      GH says:

      23.09 now in the crosshair


  26. On August 9, 2017 at 8:12 am,
    Excelsior says:

    But if some of the Gurus mentioned the Big 4 already have all the Lithium the world could ever want then why are they even exploring for it in first place. Oh yeah, it’s because demand is still growing on the macro sense, despite recent price pullbacks, and that is why most of these Lithium Majors are rushing out to partner with many of the up and coming smaller Jr producers, developers, and explorers….

    Exploration is tough no matter what the extractive resource.


    Albemarle Drops Most on S&P 500 as Cost of Finding Lithium Rises

    By Jack Kaskey – August 8, 2017

    “The weaker-than-expected outlook is due to rising lithium exploration costs,” Jim Sheehan, an analyst at Suntrust Robinson Humphrey Inc. said in a note to clients. That will more than offset a modest boost from a weaker dollar, he said.


  27. On August 9, 2017 at 8:16 am,
    Matthew says:

    It was one year ago this week that the miners peaked. As spanky, Gator and others know, confidence in the sector is now quite weak and the bulls are getting ready for another winning streak…


    • On August 9, 2017 at 8:23 am,
      spanky says:

      Since when has the $XAU lead anything in the PM complex? I believe the whole reason the $HUI was devised was to get eliminate hedged miners. Of course $XAU is going to look better when the miners are weak.

      • On August 9, 2017 at 8:36 am,
        Matthew says:

        The XAU is just a better representation of the sector, in my opinion. Your negativity has no justification in the mid to long term.


        • On August 9, 2017 at 8:36 am,
          Matthew says:
        • On August 9, 2017 at 8:41 am,
          spanky says:

          Like I said, show me the money, and I will drop the negativity.


          • On August 9, 2017 at 8:49 am,
            Matthew says:

            I doesn’t matter to me if you are negative or not and it is typical of most investors to get confident only after the move up is well underway.

            There is simply nothing bearish going on here…

            XAU daily:


          • On August 9, 2017 at 8:51 am,
            spanky says:

            Well under way?

            I’m really not asking for much. We are so close to apex of that triangle it could break the top rail today if it wanted. But it won’t,

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:03 am,
            Matthew says:

            My point is that the proof that things are fine doesn’t already exist for you even though it should. A lot of chartists who should know better are the same. The herd flocks to the same technical or fundamental indicators for guidance and can’t accept that there are other ways to figure out the odds sooner.

      • On August 9, 2017 at 8:43 am,
        Matthew says:

        The XAU outperforms the HUI when things look good for the sector because of its silver and smaller cap holdings. So its outperformance since the sector peaked a year ago matters and is bullish. If the sector were in trouble, those smaller caps and silver stocks should hold the index back relative to the safer/larger gold producers of the HUI.

  28. On August 9, 2017 at 8:20 am,
    spanky says:

    Since the January 2016 low, $HUI has not left behind a single black candle on the daily chart.

    Is this time different???

    I highly highly doubt it.


  29. On August 9, 2017 at 8:26 am,
    spanky says:

    I’m willing to concede my uber-bearish calls are totally incorrect if GDXJ:GLD can reclaim the top rail. Show me the money:


  30. On August 9, 2017 at 8:27 am,
    JohnK says:

    The best performer of the Big 4 Lithium Producers in the last 4 months has been PKX. Up over 34%. Over 8% per month!

  31. On August 9, 2017 at 8:35 am,
    spanky says:

    Silver up .45 and the miners shrug.

    • On August 9, 2017 at 8:49 am,
      JohnK says:

      That would come under the category of failed logic. To expect the miners to automatically rise when the price of Silver rises does would be a fallacy on your part.

    • On August 9, 2017 at 8:56 am,
      Matthew says:

      Actually, spanky is right to expect more from the silver stocks. Silver (SLV) is up 2.44% right now while SIL is up 1.59%. That can only be interpreted as negative even if only mildly.

      Such divergences have been happening often lately but only proves short term uncertainty, in my opinion. The miners will catch up quickly sometime soon and the leverage we expect will return with the usual consistency.

      • On August 9, 2017 at 9:04 am,
        spanky says:

        You have to ask yourself what this type of divergence is discounting. It’s one thing for you do get a divergence for one day, but for it to happen day after day? Where is the smart money???

        Shorting every pop is my guess.

        • On August 9, 2017 at 9:27 am,
          Matthew says:

          It’s been going on a long time during a seasonally weak time while the metals are range-bound and sentiment is poor, so I wouldn’t be so quick to assume that it’s smart money doing the selling.

          When such a condition occurs near a high rather than near a low, the implication would be clearly much more bearish.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 6:25 pm,
            JohnK says:

            I would never say anything you do is by luck.In fact I have learned since I’ve started doing this full time that the majority of your calls are spot on.
            Your right that I don’t get the leverage working both ways,I think there are two many variables when comparing reserves indicated and inferred.
            With IPT I know you have talked about their land package and the possibilities,and I’m sure in time you will be proved right.In my case I am a small investor with limited funds,paying bills from my trading profits.Unfortunately I am not afforded the luxury of holding positions until they start producing results. Also I will add I don’t have the luxury of being wrong to many times or else I’m back to a job I don’t like doing which nearly cost me my life two years ago.
            Unfortunately I was working when the turn came in 2016 and didn’t get to follow your posts. It wasn’t until March I realized that my portfolio was up 159%. I had not looked at for two months.
            With limited funds I have adapted a new strategy for the TSX.V mining stocks. So far I am still in the game even with the lull in the PGM’s.This included recouping losses from the buys I did last July when I switched from E Trade to Interactive Brokers.
            When this Bull market in the PM’s gets going, I will know what to do and where to do it.
            And of course I will always be looking forward to your input.-JK

          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:36 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I understand.

            Leverage might be better understood if we were to think of it simply as a stock’s sensitivity to the price of the metal. All else being equal, more leverage equals more risk and most resource investors are better off getting leverage through the economics of an ore body rather than debt (“financial leverage” or “gearing”).

            The subject was discussed a bit just before the sector bottomed in January 2016. Impact Silver was 12 or 13 cents (Canadian) at the time…


            Whether you own Impact or not, I don’t think you’re going to have to wait very long for results — at least in terms of share price appreciation. If our patience does get tested further, at least this sector can easily provide the kind of gains that will be worth the wait.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 7:52 pm,
            Matthew says:
      • On August 9, 2017 at 9:19 am,
        JohnK says:

        My point is that it is not automatic.Like you say sometimes there is a lag.Also if it is Geopolitically induced, one could expect the miners to even fall.
        Like Big Al says”At some point fundamentals will matter.”
        Not everything shows up on the chart.

        • On August 9, 2017 at 9:34 am,
          Matthew says:

          No, it’s not automatic and not actionable either, but it is more bearish than bullish. When the next powerful intermediate term leg higher erupts, we will probably see leverage of at least 5 to 1 from SIL and much more than that from many silver juniors. Some delivered 15x+ last year.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:36 am,
            Matthew says:

            IPT’s leverage to silver today has been about 2.4x.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:41 am,
            JohnK says:

            We all made good money last year. That was then and this is now.
            You know that I am on board with the coming rally in precious metals.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:41 am,
            spanky says:

            Let’s wait to see how it closes.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 9:55 am,
            JohnK says:

            It doesn’t matter what IPT’s leverage to silver is.
            It is about investor sentiment and the ability of the company to produce results.
            You can have the best property in the world and without investors or money men to buy your PP;s the stock is destined to go nowhere.
            IPT since April 4th is down 49%.
            What was it’s leverage to Silver on April 4th?

          • On August 9, 2017 at 10:03 am,
            Wolfster says:

            If it were happening from September on I’d be more concerned. In the summer,it’s a stock pickers market. Not the whole sector goes up. Just individual stocks. Personally I think it is setting up nicely for plays like Auryn the golden triangle and abitibi region as we head into September

          • On August 9, 2017 at 10:19 am,
            JohnK says:

            Point taken.
            If I see IPT reverse and make a couple of new highs I will see it and get on board.
            When Northern Dynasty made its run from pennies to over 20.00 I personally knew one of the drillers at the site and they know when they are in it.Soon will others.
            I may may miss the the first 10-20% of gains when IPT reverses and not catch the exact bottom with the cheap shares,but that is ok with me.

          • On August 9, 2017 at 11:12 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good silver miners versus spot silver discussion here guys. I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on the movement of just one stock, as there are a number of Silver stocks with varying sized deposits, jurisdictions, production output, etc…

            It’s much more instructive to look at the whole basket of stocks to see how they are performing and look for the trends.

            For example, on today’s Silver move higher, it is the Explorers and Developers that are outperforming the Producers. Most of the Silver stocks gaining on the day are up 4-10% so that looks about right.

            Here is how the Silver miners are doing today so far with a few hours left of trading:

            Ticker Symbol / #Silver Stocks Company Name / % Chg

            SVG.V Silver Grail Resources Ltd. +100.00%
            APE.V Apogee Opportunities Inc. +17.24%
            DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +9.80%
            SSE.V Silver Spruce Resources Inc. +9.09%
            SIL.V SilverCrest Metals Inc. +7.34%
            BHS.V Bayhorse Silver Inc. +6.67%
            AUN.V Aurcana Corporation +6.25%
            LVN.TO Levon Resources Ltd. +5.80%
            SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +5.71%
            SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +5.56%
            FRES.L Fresnillo PLC +4.89%
            ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +4.61%
            HOC.L Hochschild Mining PLC +4.72%
            GRG.V Golden Arrow Resources Corporation +3.70%
            HL Hecla Mining Company +3.51%
            IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. +2.86%
            MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +2.39%
            KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc +4.35%
            FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +1.84%
            PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +1.62%
            DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +1.56%
            SVM.TO Silvercorp Metals Inc. +1.46%
            SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +1.23%
            AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +1.23%
            BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +0.87%
            CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +0.20%

          • On August 9, 2017 at 1:31 pm,
            Matthew says:

            JohnK, you don’t get it. Leverage works in both directions. IPT fell well over 90% during the bear market and went up 10x+ last year for the same reasons and those reasons give it its leverage.

            Your statement that IPT’s leverage doesn’t matter doesn’t make any sense. Of course it matters if you want to get your risk/reward profile right. Some people don’t like volatility or the risk factors that give a company high leverage.

            It’s not guesswork. The factors that give a company its leverage are knowable. Do you think it was just luck that my top three positions (60% of portfolio) which were my only silver stocks, went up about 1,000% each last year while SIL went up only 263%?

            I talked about them at length at their lows and explained the leverage before the lows so no one can say that I’m making big claims after they took off.

  32. On August 9, 2017 at 9:01 am,
    spanky says:

    Utterly predictable. H&S everywhere and always in this ugly sector. And they always break down as sure and the sun sets in the west.


  33. On August 9, 2017 at 9:02 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Has anybody noticed the breakout in $HUM.L $HUMRF Hummingbird Resources?

    Are they finally part of a #takeover or something, or is it just #WestAfrica heating back up?

    ~AUfrica #Africa #Development into near term #Production


  34. On August 9, 2017 at 9:09 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    I should warn everyone that my big order for RPMGF was filled today@.163, so it will probably fall to .14 when word goes out that Bongo is in. Let’s hope they find a 10 million oz gold deposit in NV and skyrocket to the moon. It would be nice if NEM or ABX offered me one of their shares for each of my Rye Patch shares!

    • On August 9, 2017 at 9:32 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Say it ain’t so Bonzo….. 🙂

      I like Rye Patch here, and have been adding some a week or two back as well.

      They’ll get their day in the sun once they put a few more quarters of production together and keep ramping up….

      • On August 9, 2017 at 9:37 am,
        Bonzo Barzini says:

        RPMGF seems like a good gamble at today’s price. Doc will probably load up@.12

  35. On August 9, 2017 at 9:11 am,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    I meant Bonzo, not Bongo.

  36. On August 9, 2017 at 9:25 am,
    JohnK says:

    Another one to consider in Nevada that has a J.V with Barrick is Carlin Gold. CGD.V
    Carlin is a .075 cent stock way off the radar.
    Barrick started drilling their Cortez Property June 6th.
    I do own shares.

  37. On August 9, 2017 at 9:27 am,
    spanky says:

    Last time the weekly bollinger bands on $hui were this narrow was 2007. Needless to say, the whipsaws over the next year were monumental.

    It first started off with a large but short duration spike down out of the consolidation in August 2007 that was about a 20% drop.

    That spike was immediately followed by a huge rally that basically saw the $hui go from 300 to around 530 by March 2008!

    From March 2008 peak at 530, the $HUI crashed lower, ultimately bottoming at around 150 in October 2008!

    Talk about an emotional rollercoaster. I remember it well. I remember vividly Gary Savage saying that $HUI was headed to 1000+ once HUI broke through 530 in March 2008. How very wrong he was. We all were.


    • On August 9, 2017 at 4:20 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Gary’s guru rating 50%…………….