Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Tue 10 Oct, 2017

Doc addresses the Goldman Sachs comment on gold

Doc is not ruling out the $1,100’s for gold but a few things need to line up for that to happen.

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  1. On October 10, 2017 at 12:21 pm,
    Markedtofuture says:

    JayTaylor’s live discussion with John Kaiser and Brent Cook on NVO, here is the link.

    Show begins 3:00EST.

  2. On October 10, 2017 at 12:22 pm,
    pardu says:

    Doc, which is the more likely over the next few months in your opinion a slide down to 1220 or lower or a breakout to the upside with the narrowing of the banks?

    • On October 10, 2017 at 4:59 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      I think we slide first and it prepares us for the breakout on the upside later.

  3. On October 10, 2017 at 12:46 pm,
    Dave says:

    1220 was the previous low forecast from the master Doc. 2018 was supposed to be the year we “might” have a chance to take out 2015’s highs.

    Today I hear 1120 in his potential 2018 forecast?

    What kind of forecast is that, seriously. Goldman comes out with a lower gold price and all of a sudden the 1220 low for 2017 and higher prices in 2018 are abandoned.

    Anything is possible fellas. 990 gold is possible. 1120 is possible.
    Have some sack and believe in your work. Must you always hedge your calls?


    • On October 10, 2017 at 2:53 pm,
      Matthew says:

      There is no good technical reason to worry about Goldman’s call right now. It was probably put out there to help their friends cover some shorts.

    • On October 10, 2017 at 10:40 pm,
      Pete says:


      RICHARD/DOC says: FRI 22 SEP “And a real worst case scenario 1120-1160” for Gold

  4. On October 10, 2017 at 12:59 pm,
    spanky says:

    Commodities are absolutely pathetic. They are bearishly consolidating. Once the 200 WMA finally catches down to this base, the next leg lower begins, taking the complex back to prices seen during the American Revolution. The opportunity cost for staying long commodities has already been a disaster, but it will get worse first. In 10 years, Goldman and JPM will step in an buy the world’s resources and corner the entire complex for a couple of dollars.

    • On October 10, 2017 at 1:25 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is up 49% since last year’s low and there’s nothing bearish looking about the big picture.

      The weekly chart is far more bullish than bearish but silver and the pm stocks will likely perform better and sooner:

      • On October 10, 2017 at 1:53 pm,
        spanky says:

        Goldman types in what the index should close at every day and their trading desk makes it happen. Completely unrepresentative.

        Why not just point to copper and say “look at how awesome commodities are doing!”,

        • On October 10, 2017 at 2:50 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Not quite, Spanky.

        • On October 10, 2017 at 3:47 pm,
          Wolfster says:

          Well what commodities are you following that are so bearish and how do you plan to invest in them when they have bottomed cuz most of the metals that I follow are up and bullish??? And I am asking seriously cuz I love going against the herd

          • On October 11, 2017 at 7:23 am,
            Excelsior says:


  5. On October 10, 2017 at 1:36 pm,
    spanky says:

    Goldman Sachs can suck an egg.

  6. On October 10, 2017 at 1:39 pm,
    Gordon Hammerud says:

    I am waiting to see the latest from Gary Wagner, The Gold Forecast, but his weekend analysis, based on Elliott wave, is telling him that gold may be in the initial stage of running in a breaking uptrend to a minimum of 1420 and possibly higher into the 1400s. He said how gold does at the beginning of this week (and it looks OK to me) will determine whether he recommends going long at this point. His weekend report is worth watching as he goes in detail on the gold chart and it looks optimistic.

    • On October 10, 2017 at 6:47 pm,
      Paul L. says:

      I don’t understand why GDX was weak most of the day. Are people expecting a correction from 1300? I bought some yesterday and today.

    • On October 11, 2017 at 7:12 am,
      Excelsior says:

      +1 Gordon Hammerud.

      I’ve watched Gary Wagner’s weekend review for years and he is a good technician. My personal short-term outlook lines up closely with his where Gold is in a 3rd wave up that will likely exceed last year’s high and make it up into the low $1400s. We’ll see how things go, but personally I don’t get all the pessimism from investors the last few weeks. Things took off in late August into September as expected, and while they pulled back some recently, the larger trend is still moving higher over the next month or two.

    • On October 11, 2017 at 7:56 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Same old game…… changers,,,,,,taking advantage of the stupid…….

  7. On October 10, 2017 at 2:43 pm,
    CaliJoe says:

    Are you still in the camp that believes oil will go to $60?

    • On October 10, 2017 at 5:00 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      I believe oil, the rest of the commodities and the PMs have a better 2018 then 2017.

      • On October 11, 2017 at 7:22 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Yes 2018 will be a very constructive year where many retail generalist investors will wake up to the bull market that is already well underway and has been since 2016.

        Once the metals and miners head even higher, rewarding those in on the front end, and there are even more multi-baggers, THEN investors will feel it is “safe” to get back in the water.

        • On October 11, 2017 at 7:55 am,
          Matthew says:

          This year hasn’t been half as bad some think. GOEX, for example, is up 36% since the December low, 18% since the May low, and 15% YTD.

          I think the sector will exceed its 2016 highs in the first half of next year.

          • On October 11, 2017 at 8:17 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Absolutely. Personally I know a number of investors that fantastic years in Zinc, Lithium, Copper, and even the Gold & Silver miners.

            As for the PMs – the Q1 run was very profitable, and there were a few opportunities to catch nice swings over the last few months as it was very choppy, which helps short-duration traders, but doesn’t do much for the buy & hold value investors.

            Personally I had a blast swing-trading some of my favorite Silver stocks like IPT, EXN, EXK, USAS, ASM, BHS, AUN, SCZ, AXU, BBB, DV, KS, DEF, and KTN this year. There were some that moved against me, but in most cases I was able to add/trim a few times during the year in each name making quick 10-30% scalps here and there, or just lowering my cost basis in many names.

            I had a few good Prospect Generator / Royalty company transactions this year as well.

            Lastly there were a few killer exploration stories that really took off this year like Aurion Resources, GT Gold, Novo Resources, and a few good takeover stories this year like Exeter, Mariana, Avnel, Richmont, etc… where investors made some coin.

            Also a few companies finally got permits or made progress with development like SBB, ORG, or HUM.L allowing their stocks to rise despite the tougher conditions.

            There is always opportunity to be found, and it is nice to be diversified into different subsectors of Producers, Developers, Prospect Generators / Royalty generators, pure Exploration drill plays, and across different commodities. Wins in Zinc, Copper, and Lithium, provided the funds to average down in some of the more distressed PM miners, and while it takes more effort to follow more sectors, it often pays off.

  8. On October 10, 2017 at 3:52 pm,
    Bob UK says:

    Did Goldman say anything about Copper and other base metals or were they just talking about gold?

  9. On October 10, 2017 at 6:24 pm,
    CFS says:

    Do you seriously not believe that the Fed will print forever?
    The dollar will buy less and less of everything real including gold.

  10. On October 10, 2017 at 8:29 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Scorpio Gold Announces Positive Feasibility Study for Processing the Heap Leach Mineral Resource at Mineral Ridge

    • On October 11, 2017 at 7:18 am,
      Excelsior says:

      That’s good news and I was wondering when they were going to move forward with processing the old material on that leach pads to keep feeding the mill.

      2017 has been a very rough year for the share price of SGN but I feel they’ve taken the correct action to have a much better 2018. They are also toll mining at their other mill, and yet the market hasn’t woken up to all this yet. By processing at both mills they’ll buy the time necessary to get the permits in place to do extra exploration work and start a few new shallow open pits next year.

      • On October 11, 2017 at 7:31 am,
        Matthew says:

        Yes, the news is good and will get better when gold reaches a higher trading range but I really want to see some drilling. The gov seems to be dragging its rear with the permits we’ve been waiting for.

        • On October 11, 2017 at 7:43 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed. A good exploration program that leads to a few more feeder pits coming into the mix is why I’m holding on to my SGN position. Nevada is typically an easier permitting environment, but at least in the interim they are keeping the mills fed.

  11. On October 11, 2017 at 6:45 am,
    Marty says:

    Got PRETIUM anyone?

  12. On October 11, 2017 at 7:12 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  13. On October 11, 2017 at 7:46 am,
    GH says:

    Here’s one for you, Excelsior:

    As far as I know, U.TO is the best equity proxy for the uranium price…What are your thoughts on uranium these days?

    • On October 11, 2017 at 8:02 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I moved my exposure to Uranium Stocks down during the rally in Jan/Feb of this year, and then sold completely out of 6 of my dozen favorites and only have core positions in a remaining 6 companies (Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, Denison Mines, Uranium Energy Corp, Nexgen Energy, and Anfield Resources).

      My ideal strategy is to make some cake in the PMs on this next leg higher, and then trim some of the profits and reallocate them into the Uranium miners during tax loss selling in November/December.

      Personally, I’m not in a huge rush, but there are some insanely low valuations in many of the miners right now, so it’s hard not to add at these levels. The Uranium markets certainly teach one patience.

      Other companies I’ll be buying back when the worm turns are Berkeley Energy, Lightbridge Corp, Centrus Energy, UEX Corp, ALX Uranium, Peninsula Energy, and possibly either Skyharbour Resources or Bannerman Resources.

      The longer term off-take agreements that the remaining producers have in place are starting to come to their end of life from now until 2020. It’s a quite opaque market, but from prior interviews and releases from Cameco, Areva, Energy Fuels, and Ur-Energy I believe most of these contracts expire in 2018 or 2019.

      Ultimately, the spot and longer term prices won’t move higher until those negotiations take place. It is encouraging the most of Peninsula Energy’s contracts were negotiated in the low $50’s. If the other companies can keep contracts in the $40s-$50s then they’ll make it and prices will start to move up after a terrible bear market.

      The only wildcard are the Kazakhstan production centers that are going to be acting like OPEC in Oil as a swing producer and may try to thwart the North American competitors by keeping the spot prices in the $30’s-$40s which gives them good profits but discourages new mines or production coming on line.

      That’s what I’ll be watching for 2018 but for now I only have about 1/3 of the allocation and plan on growing that to 60% of my ideal exposure at the end of the year.

      • On October 11, 2017 at 8:05 am,
        GH says:

        Thanks, Ex, I appreciate it.

        • On October 11, 2017 at 8:23 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Right on. Glad to touch base on Uranium from time to time. Dec-Feb is typically a good seasonal run, for whatever reason, and while no 2 years are the same, it’s worked out the last few years. Ever Upward!

          • On October 11, 2017 at 12:49 pm,
            GH says:

            I can certainly imagine this year following the pattern, based on the charts.

  14. On October 11, 2017 at 9:07 am,
    Excelsior says:


    October 11, 2017

    Production Highlights for Q3 (compared to Q2, 2017)

    > Gold production increased 13 percent to 7,982 ounces (ozs);
    > Gold sent to pad increased by 45 percent, averaging 7,125 ozs per month;
    > Ore tons mined increased by 57 percent for the quarter, averaging over 810,000 tons per month (tpm);
    > Strip ratio decreased 56 percent to 0.54;
    > Ore tons crushed increased by 29 percent, averaging over 660,000 tpm;
    > Gold grade increased by 10 percent to 0.011 ounces per ton (opt) (combined ore and sub-grade overliner);
    > Gold ounces placed on the South Heap Leach Pad (SHLP) in Q3 represents 52 percent of the total gold to date; and
    > Production transitioned from the first starter cell (Section 1A) of the SHLP on to the main part of the pad (Section 1B).”

  15. On October 11, 2017 at 9:14 am,
    Excelsior says:

    A Conversation with Brent Cook of Exploration Insights

    by @Leni on October 10, 2017

  16. On October 11, 2017 at 9:20 am,
    Excelsior says:
  17. On October 11, 2017 at 9:29 am,
    Excelsior says:


    October 2, 2017

  18. On October 11, 2017 at 9:30 am,
    Excelsior says:


    October 5, 2017

  19. On October 11, 2017 at 9:34 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Silver Market Update
    Clive Maund – published Sunday, October 08, 2017

    “There was more evidence of a turn in silver than gold on Friday, when a more obvious reversal candle appeared on its chart. On the 6-month chart we can see that a long-tailed candle occurred that approximates to a bull hammer where the price closed not far off the day’s highs on the biggest volume for over a month. After its recent reaction this certainly looks like a reversal, especially as the downtrend channel has been converging. The earlier overbought condition has more than fully unwound and the price has dropped back into a zone of support.”

    “Like gold, silver is marking out a giant Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern, but in silver’s case it is downsloping as we can see on its 8-year chart below, which reflects the fact that silver tends to underperform gold at the end of sector bearmarkets and during the early stages of sector bullmarkets. Prolonged underperformance by silver is therefore a sign of a bottom. This chart really does show how unloved silver is right now, but although the price has drifted slightly lower over the past several years, volume indicators have improved, especially this year, a positive sign. A break above the neckline of the pattern, the black line, will be a positive development, and more so a break above the band of resistance approaching the 2016 highs. Once it gets above this it will have to contend with a quite strong zone of resistance roughly between $26 and $28. Silver is amongst the most unloved of all metals, a situation that is not expected to continue, partly because silverbugs are manic-depressive and they have been depressive for a long time, meaning that it surely won’t be all that long until they are on the rooftops singing Happy Days are Here Again.”