Chris Temple from The National Investor – Wed 27 Dec, 2017

Copper, Oil and Treasuries – Are News Highs For The Year Justified?

Chris Temple joins me today to look at the moves in copper, oil, and treasuries. With Copper and oil reaching new highs for the year (yesterday crude was over $60/barrel) and almost 2 years out of the low we are looking at very different economic data that continues to support the moves. As for treasuries and the move up in TLT today it is curious to see the pop coming today.

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Comments:
  1. On December 27, 2017 at 10:19 am,
    CFS says:
  2. On December 27, 2017 at 10:21 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold up to $1290

    Silver up to $16.75

    All things considered….. not too shabby. The PMs & miners have been quietly staging a rally since the FOMC fedbabble rate hike on Wed the 13th, and hardly anyone got positioned in front of it or benefited, so it is interesting how stealth the anticipated rally has been. This is why I put in my last tranche before the Fed madness – You gotta be in it to win it.

    Wishing all the investors here at the KER a prosperous last trading week for 2017!

    • On December 27, 2017 at 10:40 am,
      Excelsior says:

      If this picks up speed going into Jan/Feb most Bears and Bulls will be left in the dust, and will once again, say “Wow, it caught me by surprise” even though we mentioned on here for months that the miners have bottomed the last 3 years around the Fed hikes and at the end of Tax Loss selling, and then rallied from there.

      Also the time frame has moved quicker and quicker after each hike to when we we saw a rally in the miners, but the height of the rally and the duration have decreased each time. It would be fine for the metals and miners to take a breather for a few days after rising for so many days in sequence, but I’d expect that just to be a pause before the next move higher in Jan/Feb.

      We talked for 2 months about getting positioned before the rate hike, but based on the lack of comments about new positions put the first 2 weeks of December, it is unlikely that many participated during a great buying opportunity.

      • On December 27, 2017 at 10:42 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Here’s a Clandleglance chart of 12 different Silver stocks that moved off their intermediate lows during on the FOMC hike on Wed the 13th.

        [Many moved up enough in the last 2 weeks to outperform most mutual funds for the entire year…… but like normal, few even noticed or participated].

        http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?IPT.V,AXR.TO,EXN.TO,ASM.V,EDR.TO,USA.TO,SVM.TO,GPR.TO,SIL.V,DEF.V,DV.V,BBB.V|B|

        • On December 27, 2017 at 7:53 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I’m very heavily weighted towards Silver miners at present, but I do that each year during tax loss selling season. Silver miners typically outperform Gold miners on the rallies we see coming out of the Dec lows and moving into the Q1 Run.

          We have discussed this over and over again for years on the KER, but Goldfinger had a nice chart out today just showing the moves out of the December lows in GDX (which is rather sluggish and muted compared to many higher torque Jrs).

          _____________________________________________________________________

          @Goldfinger – “Is it really that simple? Buy $gold miners in December and make big returns within 1-2 months?”

          http://cdn.ceo.ca/1d48h46-GDX_December.png

  3. On December 27, 2017 at 10:25 am,
    Excelsior says:

    One that just got away from me in the Energy space was the Uranium Fuel company (LTBR). I was going to position in it soon, but it’s up 50% on the day. Darn…..

    That just goes to show how quickly some of the Uranium stocks can move when just a little money flows into them. Better to be early with Uranium stocks than miss moves like that, coming out of the starting gate.

    • On December 27, 2017 at 10:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      For clarity – LTBR is the Lightbridge Corp. – They are using specialty metals clad Uranium fuel rods to lower temperatures, reduce melt-down concerns, and improve efficiency in nuclear plants, and the French nuclear giant Areva is their partner.

  4. On December 27, 2017 at 11:06 am,
    pardu says:

    What do Doc, Rick, and Chris think about the stock XAUMF which is gold money? And are we due in the first of 2018 for a pullback on gold and silver?

    • On December 27, 2017 at 11:35 am,
      Matthew says:

      You didn’t ask the peanut gallery but, if I were looking to buy, I’d wait. And if I had held it through its recent great move, I’d sell most if not all of it and buy either the miners and/or a miner ETF. Both risk and opportunity cost considerations would make the decision easy for me.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XAUMF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p19420754662&a=565796304

      • On December 27, 2017 at 12:04 pm,
        pardu says:

        Sorry, I just assume everyone else would comment as they see fit and any contributors are welcome to opine on this.

        • On December 27, 2017 at 1:04 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I see; no sorry necessary.

  5. On December 27, 2017 at 11:45 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (MLN) (MLNGF) Marlin Gold and Sailfish Royalty Announce Completion of Arrangement and Acquisition of Royalty
    December 22, 2017

    Akiba Leisman, CEO of Sailfish states, “the closing of this arrangement is the culmination of over three years of effort to create significant value for Marlin’s shareholders through the creation of a separate, publicly traded royalty company. Now that this transaction is closed, we will continue to create substantial value at Sailfish through accretive royalty acquisitions on assets that Marlin currently owns as well as third party projects and mines.”

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/marlin-gold-and-sailfish-royalty-announce-completion

  6. On December 27, 2017 at 11:53 am,
    b says:

    gold up a bit, my list languishes, except for novo.(at least there was some action in it)

    notice how much it tanked with just an article or two? after Bob said buy kirkland down it went.
    I really dont know if goldshares move more on drill results or articles.
    (alot of money in cryptos I think)

    Potshares looking quite a bit stronger, bet there is more than 1 goldbug wishing they had a % in pot by now. 5% gold…95% sumtin else. lol

    Goldshares dropping so much is “headscratching” sometimes, geez there are some good buys around. well, they used to be considered good buys, they could all go to zero yet.

    I forgot to say, Merry Christmas to everybody and happy new year (we will know more then)

    Thanks Bob,GH and Ex for some excellent reading this year.
    I found a post or two from you guys particularly enjoyable reads. Really well done.

    And everyone else too for all contributions. Mat,Jerry, CFS etc
    special thanks to Al and Cory of course

    Bitcoin seems to be holding, after “the crash”
    It aint dead yet, I am gonna so laff if that sucker heads to 100k.
    Why shouldnt the know nothing under 30 techy types make oodles?

    Maybe sometimes it pays to know nothing.

    • On December 27, 2017 at 12:06 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      And thanks for your contribution………appreciate the mention………OOTB

    • On December 27, 2017 at 12:58 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      thanks for the kind words b. Have a great end to 2017 and a Happy New Year.

      • On December 27, 2017 at 1:08 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        BTW – I agree about being diversified across different sectors. I don’t have any pot stocks, but watched their rally with fascination and know other investors that did quite well in that sector. I did much better overall this year in some battery metals stocks (Lithium, Cobalt, Graphite, Copper, Nickel) and in Zinc/Lead explorers, than in most of the Silver or Gold stocks (although there were a few good exploration winners). Also there were a few good trades in the beginning of the year and end of the year in Uranium miners.

        As for the cryptos, I’m just starting to build a position in miner HIVE, but have been swing trading in and out of it at present (not sure if the correction in Bitcoin or Ethereum will continue or if they are just consolidating to start their next leg higher). Either way, the largest crypto miner should have longer term value creation by generating more Ethereum/Ether and next year they’ll be generating new Bitcoins as well.

        In addition, my retirement account has continued to climb with the ever rising general equities, but just recently I moved about 30% of that portfolio into Emerging Markets and companies based outside the US.

        • On December 27, 2017 at 1:11 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Moving into the first quarter of 2018, I’m most heavily weighted in Silver, Gold, Zinc, and Uranium Miners, but have a spattering of other stocks in other commodities.

        • On December 27, 2017 at 6:59 pm,
          Wolfster says:

          I picked a pot stock for the ceo stock contest and it was up 15% today….and I love it. Lol

          • On December 27, 2017 at 7:52 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Wolfster – Nice work. Yes I got all my picks in for the ceo stock picking contest as well, and while I definitely like seeing some of them moving up here at year end, I was hoping that they’d save much of their rally until the very beginning of January. (just to increase the percentage moves in 2018). Regardless l like seeing things starting to get more interesting in many commodities here at year end.

            I got demolished in this years ceo stock picking contest as the underdog Uranium and Silver/Gold stocks were the wrong horses to bet on for 2017, but they should do much better in 2018. I would have done much better if I had submitted my Lithium and Zinc stocks for 2017, but hindsight is 20/20.

            Ironically, I actually won one of the weeks of the stock picking contest for cannabis stocks over at stockpools and was sent a $500 check this year utilizing some of the info I saw here on the KER and on ceo.

            If you could only pick one mid-tier fairly solid pot stock which one would you recommend?

            Good luck in the 2018 contest!

          • On December 27, 2017 at 10:21 pm,
            b says:

            cdn is weed, aph,acb,emc,abcn

            every so often a new license is issued, I coulda missed 1 or 2 or a few…….
            weed really does seem to be the one people move to, i still think all these are going up in price tho.

            pick just 1? aaaahhhh who can eat oops pick just one?

          • On December 27, 2017 at 11:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks b.

            I’m familiar with APH, WEED, and ACB, but hadn’t heard of EMC or ABCN. Thanks.

            > Are you familiar with any of these?

            $RVV, $ATT, $IN, $LHS, $CBDS, $CNBX, $OWCP, $GWPH, $CANN, $CNAB, $MJN

          • On December 28, 2017 at 4:09 am,
            Wolfster says:

            I’m starting to switch some over to American pot stocks cuz I think they are undervalued vs Canadian ones…California I went with cannaroyalty (c.crz) and Nevada Friday nights(c.tgif) b’s list is solid with the emc being a play on one which may be undervalued with new management taking over. They are in the oils which seem to be undervalued too

          • On December 28, 2017 at 4:11 am,
            Wolfster says:

            And yes I would have preferred those gains January 2nd onwards for the contest but recreational pot is legal starting January 1st in California and a pot etf started December 26th so the pot stocks have been on fire since after Xmas

          • On December 28, 2017 at 12:02 pm,
            b says:

            Sry, dont know them.

            I dont follow the u.s. markets.

            Sure wish cdn market had some stuff american markets have tho.

          • On December 28, 2017 at 12:11 pm,
            b says:

            Wolf,
            These pot stocks are just getting under way.
            Its “to the moon” buddy “to the moon”.

            Course PMs are going astral and so is bitcoin I hear so….flip a coin maybe. lol

          • On December 28, 2017 at 1:24 pm,
            Wolfster says:

            Trade in Canada b….. just sell pot in states….. what’s not going to the moon???

  7. On December 27, 2017 at 1:13 pm,
    alman says:

    thanks every one for contribution 2017. best for 2018. tcegf looks like bottoming.inside buy too.

  8. On December 27, 2017 at 7:07 pm,
    Matthew says:
  9. On December 28, 2017 at 4:05 am,
    Markedtofuture says:

    Venezuela Oil Industry Collapsing & May Take the Gov’t With It

    Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserve in the world. However, they are out of gasoline. The government has attributed this to poor management which has led to the stoppage of 80% of the country’s refineries. So much for socialism. The assumption that government is competent of managing anything is proven by this very example.

    My old friend, Milton Friedman, said it best:

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/venezuela-oil-industry-collapsing-may-take-the-govt-with-it/