Chris Vermeulen - The Technical Traders – Wed 18 Apr, 2018

Watch The Safe Haven Assets Even If US Markets Continue Up

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on the US markets and safe haven assets. With technical factors pointing higher for the short term for US markets Chris notes that the safe havens are also showing strength.

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Featuring:
Chris VermeulenCory Fleck

Comments:
  1. On April 18, 2018 at 7:03 am,
    Chris says:

    Amazing pop in stocks, metals and miners today… This could be a major turning point… only time will tell guys.

  2. On April 18, 2018 at 7:51 am,
    CFS says:

    We are getting towards the end of a crack-up boom, for goodness, don’t you guys ever look at fundamental Austrian economics?

    • On April 18, 2018 at 8:09 am,
      spanky says:

      Austrians/goldbugs have known since Nixon closed the gold window that the debt based fiat system was ultimately doomed. Yes, it will happen, but we are coming up on 50 years!

      Mises has the famous quote about trying to avert a credit collapse and the monetary consequences–well that process has been playing out since 2008 and the USD is still the world’s reserve currency. Maybe year 11 will be the year, but maybe it will be year 15 or 16 or 23. Who knows.

    • On April 18, 2018 at 8:32 am,
      CFS says:
  3. On April 18, 2018 at 7:59 am,
    spanky says:

    Well, the next month or two is going to be absolutely huge for silver and the miners. Based on the extreme CoTs, I expected silver to get some sort of pop, even if it ultimately rolled over. It’s all coming to a head.

    I have been saying that I expect some of the silver miners to rally straight up for the at least next 6 months. It’s possible that extends out to 9 months before the next major consolidation. That is just a guess. I would keep a close eye on the monthly Ichimoku charts on the silver stocks as a good guess as to when a serious pause may develop. For the time being, there is obviously tons of room for many of the the laggards (IPT, for example) to rally bigtime before they have to worry about serious resistance. Also keep an eye on the downtrend line from 2011 in some of these names.

    • On April 18, 2018 at 8:05 am,
      Matthew says:

      Laggard? IPT has been a leader since the sector bottomed and has doubled since December. It has blown away even SILJ and still looks superior.

      IPT priced in SILJ:

      http://schrts.co/kCvFc4

      • On April 18, 2018 at 8:11 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Looks like a big cup and handle formation…….jmo

        • On April 18, 2018 at 8:14 am,
          Matthew says:

          It is quite cuppy, isn’t it? Whatever we call it, it is a very bullish pattern that suggests IPT will continue to significantly outperform the rest, on average.

          • On April 18, 2018 at 8:20 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I agree on the bullish pattern…….

          • On April 18, 2018 at 11:02 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed Matthew – IPT has been one of the better performers coming out of the Dec 2017 tax loss selling season / FOMC rate hikes – as to be expected.

            The 50 day EMA just recently did a “golden cross” above the 200 day EMA, and yes it looks like a nice “Cup & Handle” chart about to continue to break out.

            http://schrts.co/17E6Me

            Cheers!

        • On April 18, 2018 at 8:24 am,
          spanky says:

          Cup and handle is a continuation a pattern that you see at market highs. This looks more like a rounded bottom/base.

          • On April 18, 2018 at 8:30 am,
            Matthew says:

            It IS a continuation pattern when viewed properly:

            http://schrts.co/Xwoycb

          • On April 18, 2018 at 8:31 am,
            Matthew says:

            The breakout at 1.28 will be something else.

          • On April 18, 2018 at 8:33 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Not sure I agree with you……the cup has to form first, …..and then the handle, and then has to go 1/8th higher, then off to the races…..IBJ…….

          • On April 18, 2018 at 8:34 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            that was for spanky

          • On April 18, 2018 at 8:36 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Now that is a different view………

          • On April 18, 2018 at 11:04 am,
            Excelsior says:

            spanky – cup & handle patterns often mark a breakout from a rounded bottom consolidation, and I’ve seen very few appear at market highs, but tons that signified the next move higher.

            https://www.google.com/search?q=cup+%26+handle+pattern&rlz=1C1FLDB_enUS596US597&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj_wve3tMTaAhVH21MKHSpDCLoQsAQIOA&biw=1536&bih=883

          • On April 18, 2018 at 11:28 am,
            Excelsior says:

            What marks a top is an “inverse” cup & handle, just like an “inverse” head and shoulders marks a bottom instead of a top.

      • On April 18, 2018 at 8:14 am,
        spanky says:

        You know exactly what I mean. It got its a$$ handed to it over the last 20 months. Compare its chart to AXU’s. Yes, it absolutely has more beta, but moves to the downside are just as brutal. Right now it is just catching up to baseline (where AXU has been for 20 months).

        • On April 18, 2018 at 8:16 am,
          Matthew says:

          It got pounded by fund dumping and I am sure glad it did.

          • On April 18, 2018 at 11:58 am,
            Excelsior says:

            > On January 25, 2018 at 12:07 pm,
            spanky says:

            “Don’t you worry. IPT is headed down too. It will play catch down soon enough.”

            – spanky

            ________________________________________________________________________

            How about, No, Scott, OK?

            https://media1.tenor.com/images/f6a77f81b147edcc16062d690ec6bf17/tenor.gif?itemid=3817029

          • On April 18, 2018 at 12:00 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            spanky – take a look at where IPT was in January (when you though it would be heading down) and take a look at where it is now:

            http://schrts.co/17E6Me

          • On April 18, 2018 at 12:24 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Also note the 50 day EMA recently crossing up through the 200 day EMA.

            That doesn’t look like “catch down” action to me the last few months.

        • On April 18, 2018 at 8:17 am,
          Matthew says:

          It still led the way though. It was first to the bottom and first outta the hole – like it usually is.

          • On April 18, 2018 at 11:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Good points Matthew. There were a few stocks pounded by funds selling a large position that hit them disproportionately harder than other stocks in the space (Jaguar was another).

            As you pointed out, IPT started moving before most of the other Jrs though, and has performed better than most on the move up out of Dec tax loss/ FOMC rate hike mumbo jumbo.

          • On April 18, 2018 at 12:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The middle of the year was brutal for and number of the gold/silver mid-tiers though (May – July) when some got booted from GDXJ during that crazy rebalance, and then sentiment tanked in most of the miners after that for the balance of last year.

            As a result most miners pulled back hard most of last year, so and the leveraged stocks like IPT even more so. However, conversely, most of the leveraged stocks came out of the Dec lows with very nice returns, so it is definitely a 2-way street with regards to out-performance from the levered up Jrs.

            Alexco is a developer, and most development companies are more stable with less volatility until they get closer to the “golden runway” into production. From that standpoint it makes sense that a stock like AXU flatlined more than a Producer/explorer would.

        • On April 18, 2018 at 11:43 am,
          Excelsior says:

          > On October 24, 2017 at 11:20 am,
          spanky says:

          “Please… AXU is headed to 1.08 and then sub 1.00. Could it bounce off the lower monthly BB for a month or two? absolutely. Wake me when it it bust $2.00. I think I will be asleep for many, many years.”

          ___________________________________________________________

          ** for the record spanky that was wrongo in the congo, and once again, you were the best counter-indicator for trend changes.

          AXU never went down to $1.08 or below $1.00 (haha!), but instead, right after your comment shot up over the next few months to $1.79 in January. Today AXU is back up near $1.65 and a sub $1 Alexco is nowhere to be seen, nor was it ever likely.

          It is hilarious that you are now trying to trash talk IPT using AXU when you’ve been beating up on both of them for the last 6 months. Both have performed great for different reasons. Yes, AXU held up better than IPT, but IPT has taken off from it’s low and out-performed most other Jr miners since December.

          Comedy at it’s finest! 🙂

          • On April 18, 2018 at 11:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Oh and here’s a price chart for AXU to help you get your bearings for the next round of smack talk that you’ll inevitably dole out. (lol)

            http://schrts.co/g8jKY7

    • On April 18, 2018 at 11:33 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (ASM) Avino Announces Q1 2018 Production Results

      by @newswire on April 17, 2018

      https://ceo.ca/@newswire/avino-announces-q1-2018-production-results

  4. On April 18, 2018 at 8:09 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    More Extremes in Silver Positions
    The CTFC now reports that commercials in silver (who have never been net-long) hold the smallest
    net-short positions since June of 2013. Back then silver rallied almost $7, to $25.17 by the end of
    August. Gold rallied over $200 to $1434 in that same period.

    • On April 18, 2018 at 8:31 am,
      spanky says:

      As I have said, you have to be extremely careful with this. If you go back to even earlier periods when large specs have gone net short, like say in the early 2000’s, you will see that while there is usually a pop in the short term to bring them back to neutral or net long, silver has tended to drift lower for the next year. Same thing happened in the mid 1990s iirc–you get an initial small pop upwards and then silver drifted lower for close to a year.

      I’m not saying that silver is about to drift lower for the next year after this pop is over, but empirically, it wouldn’t be out of the norm based on past CoTs.

      • On April 18, 2018 at 8:38 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        That info…….was from Bob Hoye……..see at 321…..I posted this before, forgot to note, sorry…..

        • On April 18, 2018 at 8:50 am,
          spanky says:

          Don’t get me wrong, in 2003 or whenever the large specs did indeed go net short last, silver proceed to tear their faces off.

          Again, while you would expect silver to pop now (as it has in every prior instance), the question is whether the rally will be sustained.

          • On April 18, 2018 at 10:16 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Until silver goes over 22 , I will not get excited…….

          • On April 18, 2018 at 11:56 am,
            Excelsior says:

            On January 24, 2018 at 11:36 am,
            spanky says:

            “Like I said Matthew, some day, some day.”

            “Some day I will be dead and buried. Maybe then these miners will catch a bid.
            When gold puts in a short term top, the silver miners are going to test if not break their December lows. Where is the smart money? Still shorting apparently.” — Spanky

            (Wrong – December marked the lows in the miners as expected, like they have the last 3 years in a row. They’ve moved up off their recent bottoms again and have been clawing their way higher since then, so the smart money was getting positioned at the end of last year.

            _______________________________________________________________

            On January 24, 2018 at 11:49 am,
            spanky says:

            “And like I said, I am sure the miners will reach new highs, some day. The silver miners will be basing out for years. They won’t break their 2016 highs until 2020 or later.” – spanky

            (We’ll make sure to keep you abreast of when the miners break their 2016 highs, and many of them will happen way before 2020).

            __________________________________________________________

            > On October 10, 2017 at 1:08 pm,
            spanky says:

            “Wake me when silver cracks $18 (that’s USD not pesos). I think it is going to be a very long nap, might even turn into a dirt nap for me by the time it sees $18 again.” – spanky

            (Oh don’t worry, we’ll keep the light on for ya when Silver cracks $18. Currently it is at $17.22).

      • On April 18, 2018 at 11:50 am,
        Excelsior says:

        On October 31, 2017 at 4:36 pm,
        spanky says:

        “Bull market? yeah ok, I guess. Like I said, they could rebound massively from here, but I think they will be basing for *years*. The 2016 highs won’t be seen until 2019 at the earliest IMO, maybe even 2020.”

        “Up to a lower high from here (I am guessing between now and March they will bottom and then rally for most of the year), then down to a higher low into 2019 before making a run for the 2016 highs finally.” — spanky

        ___________________________________________________________________

        As discussed, most of the miners bottomed in December at their seasonal lows during tax loss selling, and most to the very day of Dec 12th, right before the FOMC rate hike on the 13th. For people that waited for this spring to get positioned, they would have missed a great tradable rally up into the Q1 run, and missed the bottom as well.

  5. On April 18, 2018 at 8:12 am,
    Matthew says:

    Jack Chan makes things very simple as is probably better than most of his peers as a result. I’m not a subscriber of his but his free pieces make it clear that his approach to the charts is a good one.
    Two days ago:
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan041618.html

    • On April 18, 2018 at 8:17 am,
      spanky says:

      Actually your boy Morris called it much better.

      • On April 18, 2018 at 8:25 am,
        Matthew says:

        Not really my boy since I didn’t know that. I called it well myself by scooping up over a million shares of IPT when others were too scared and looking for lower lows. A lot of gurus have been too bearish for the last several months.

        • On April 18, 2018 at 8:33 am,
          spanky says:

          When you buy your private island in the South Pacific, you should fly us in. I’ll bring some snacks.

      • On April 18, 2018 at 12:02 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        > On January 25, 2018 at 12:07 pm,
        spanky says:

        “Don’t you worry. IPT is headed down too. It will play catch down soon enough.”

        – spanky

        ________________________________________________________________________

        How about, No, Scott, OK?

        https://media1.tenor.com/images/f6a77f81b147edcc16062d690ec6bf17/tenor.gif?itemid=3817029

        • On April 18, 2018 at 12:04 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          IPT chart – Note January pricing and then note today. Spanky, someone that is that off in their repeated negative shock rock calls, shouldn’t be heckling Matthew who was spot on about how someone else called it better. (even though I think Morris is a sharp guy too).

          http://schrts.co/17E6Me

          • On April 18, 2018 at 12:23 pm,
            spanky says:

            Who’s heckling Matthew? You are delusional.

  6. On April 18, 2018 at 8:12 am,
    CFS says:
  7. On April 18, 2018 at 8:16 am,
    CFS says:

    Iranian currency in freefall, so why did oil jump so much today?

    • On April 18, 2018 at 8:23 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      the banks are awash in cash……..and cash is trash……and oil is in an uptrend…..jmo

    • On April 18, 2018 at 8:28 am,
      Matthew says:

      That currency matters a lot less to the oil price than the potential for supply disruptions brought about by war or sanctions (yes, that’s redundant).

      • On April 18, 2018 at 8:30 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        was just going to mention war…Iran heating up…..

        • On April 18, 2018 at 11:20 am,
          CFS says:

          It seems the jump in oil was due to two factors:
          Saudi said they would limit supply until $80 < oil < $100 was achieved.
          The US announced that although production was running at less than 85% of production capability, its export is being limited by pipeline capability.

          Trump has to decide on Obama's Iran deal by May 12.
          He is being occupied by other things right now.

  8. On April 18, 2018 at 8:25 am,
    CFS says:

    I understand getting subpoenas for witnesses, but getting a judge to give subpoenas that are blank, to be filled in later?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-11/mueller-seeks-subpoenas-for-35-witnesses-for-manafort-trial

    One has to wonder about Mueler’s abuse of power.

    • On April 18, 2018 at 8:29 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      No one is going to respect the law after this…………jmo

  9. On April 18, 2018 at 8:29 am,
    CFS says:

    Silvercrest drills 1.5 m of 2,999 g/t AgEq at Chispas

    2018-04-17 10:29 ET – News Release
    Mr. Eric Fier reports

    • On April 18, 2018 at 12:35 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Nice hit from Silvercrest. It’s narrow at 1.5 meters, but that is impressive high grade.

  10. On April 18, 2018 at 8:44 am,
    spanky says:

    One thing I note was that the 10 week EMA in laggards like EXK is about to positively cross the 50 week EMA. That is pretty darn bullish. And yes of course it can pull back, potentially all the way to the 50 week EMA (currently at 2.58 and rising), but it’s a buy on any weakness.

  11. On April 18, 2018 at 9:00 am,
    spanky says:

    If this rally in the miners is legit, I expect the $XAU to get to the 600 WMA (at 129 and slowly declining) within the next 6-9 months. Basically a 50+% rally from here.

    • On April 18, 2018 at 9:16 am,
      spanky says:

      It could also overshoot significantly before coming back down to touch that MA from above. Maybe getting to 150 or so.

  12. On April 18, 2018 at 2:17 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Ex, I don’t think spanky was ever in college and if he was he wouldn’t have been at Freddy’s Anchor Bar in Fort Lauderdale during spring break. If you want to learn about “Tops and Bottoms”, you simply must go to Freddy’s. LOL! DT!

    • On April 18, 2018 at 2:26 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Ha! Good one DT.

      I was in Pompano Beach near Ft Lauderdale last year, and also in Boca Raton, but never made it by Fort Lauderdale or Freddy’s. I’ll keep that in mind for the next time I’m there as a educational excursion. 😉

      • On April 18, 2018 at 2:52 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        While I was in Pompano Beach, I walked out on this pier (in the picture below) looking out over the ocean and people watching; when there was suddenly a bit of commotion from some guys fishing in the corner.

        This one man’s son started reeling in a big fish, and his pole was dipping down and thrashing around, so some of the people standing around turned their heads watched on in anticipation.

        He was very excited and his dad helped him finish lifting it up and it was a shark! The kid squealed and the dad, without hesitation got out a pocket knife, and cut the line letting it fall back into the ocean. They were standing right next to a sign that said “No Shark Fishing”, but I don’t think they intended to catch it.

        Some people standing nearby that were all casually talking and not really paying close attention asked “what did he catch? I didn’t even get to see it…” The dad replied, “nothing we’re hanging onto,” and they promptly got their cooler and left (the kid still a bit shaken).

        I smiled and walked back down the pier and was inspired to have a fantastic seafood meal at 101 Ocean along with a few glasses of wine. Upon returning home I turned out that someone in that restaurant stole my credit card info that day and tried to use it later on and steal my identity.

        Just another day in paradise! (lol)

        https://res.cloudinary.com/simpleview/image/upload/c_fill,f_auto,h_520,q_50,w_1024/v1/clients/ftlauderdale/Pompano_97bce51e-5a3e-4bb7-a38f-201562c0495e.jpg

        • On April 18, 2018 at 3:02 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          Ex, Florida is full of tiger sharks and gold diggers, if one doesn’t get you the other one will. Trump learned his lesson the hard way when he met Stormy Daniels at his resort at Mar-a-Largo. DT

          • On April 18, 2018 at 3:21 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Florida is also full of swamp land, gators, and toll roads. I’ve spent a great deal of time in Florida over the year, and been in a few good storms, but nothing compared to the tempest that is Stormy Daniels lately in the news.

            Just in the last few years we’ve visited Destin/Seaside/Watercolor, Tampa/St Petersburg, Orlando, Boca Raton/Del Ray, and we drove up the Atlantic coast from Miami/Southbeach, through Hollywood Beach, Ft Lauderdale (didn’t hit Freddies that time either), West Palm Beach, Daytona Beach, and Jacksonville.

            The coasts are fun, but the middle of the state is hot, muggy, desolate, and the wildlife gets a bit dangerous. Cheers!

      • On April 18, 2018 at 2:53 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Spanky probably has a part time job as a crossing guard with a stop paddle in his hand. LOL! DT

        • On April 18, 2018 at 3:12 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Now now DT. Let’s not go overboard. I am fine if someone can make a logical bearish case (without the drama), but much of what he has been ranting on about for the last 6 months has been off in the high weeds, and even though he says things like “going long the stock markets and short Silver is the trade of the year” he continues to claim to hold silver stocks. In addition, he makes calls off his TA and then doesn’t follow them himself. He should have been shorting Silver and holding up the stop sign, but instead he just poked at it every day and sat on declining shares for a year and half (always using the highs in the Summer of 2016 as his starting point for analysis instead of the Major low in metals in Dec 2015 or the miners in Jan 2016).

          The issue I have with is that he spent most of last year and the early part of this year with over-the-top bearish calls for waterfall declines, that silver miners were swirling the drain, that some may go to 0, that they had been taken out and beaten, etc…
          He particularly singled out Silver stocks like IPT, AXU, EXK, and AG that he knows many of us follow to beat up on them day after day and was over-the-top sensational about most of the posts and it just got really really old after a while.

          > Now today he is still trying to slam IPT (even though it has been on a tear upwards since the Dec lows in 2017 as some of us anticipated it would do), and trying to use AXU (another stock he relentlessly slammed) as the justification because it didn’t pull back as much.

          “It got its a$$ handed to it over the last 20 months. Compare its chart to AXU’s.”

          Again, that is because AXU is a developer and many of them only drifted sideways to down because they were in a holding pattern. That is much different than a smaller producer/explorer that is more levered to the price action.

          Anyway, I wish him luck in his investing, but acting like he called a big rally in the Silver stocks when he made repeated comments about them basing until 2020 is just a bit much.


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