Jordan Roy-Byrne - Techncial Commentary – Wed 27 Jun, 2018

Sentiment Points To A Bounce In Gold, But It Needs To Be Strong

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Fonder of The Daily Gold shares some data about the current sentiment in gold and the bounces we have seen over the past 17 months when at these levels. These prior bounces lead some to believe that at least a $100+ run is due but there are some other factors that are showing things might be different this time. The USD and interest rates all play a roll.

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Comments:
  1. On June 27, 2018 at 11:42 am,
    Dave says:

    Stocks Up
    Gold Down

    Stocks Down
    Gold Down

    Dollar Up
    Gold Down

    Dollar Down
    Gold Down

    Oil Up
    Gold Down

    Oil Down
    Gold Down

    So what have we learned here?

    • On June 27, 2018 at 11:50 am,
      Joel says:

      That truly dark days are upon us.. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYS0EeaAUMw

    • On June 27, 2018 at 12:40 pm,
      spanky says:

      The miners can do one better:

      gold up
      miners down.

      I don’t care if a bounce is close, gold looks absolutely terrible on the weekly chart. Short it when it gets back to the 50 WMA.

      To me it looks like, at best, gold will be “basing out” for years more. Same with the whole commodity complex. The banksters know they will be strung up if commodity inflation gets out of hand. They will continue to divert any and all liquidity into the US stock market.

      • On June 27, 2018 at 12:52 pm,
        Dave says:

        Makes ya wonder if the metals will ever have their day in the sun. It has been nearly 10 years since the financial crisis…and there are very few good gold analysts alive. Many have died in the last 10 years….and I suspect someday the metals my go higher…but those poor old gold bulls will never get to enjoy their gains. They may be able to let their kids have their assets..but they will be dead.

        Sad really. I have yet to see ONE person get it right consistently.

        • On June 27, 2018 at 12:59 pm,
          spanky says:

          Nah, it’s just delusion and ignoring history and price action.

          If commodities stay flat/rangebound for say the next 20 years, you could argue that gold and silver are wildly overvalued on a historical basis. You know what that means?

      • On June 27, 2018 at 12:57 pm,
        Dave says:

        Any idea on where the break even price is for the gold and silver miners is on average.
        It would seem smarter for some of these companies to halt their operations rather than produce with rising oil and fuel costs.

        • On June 27, 2018 at 1:02 pm,
          spanky says:

          If you have debts to banksters, you can’t just stop operations.

          Watch them drive gold down to $800 or lower and THEN finally kill Bretton Woods II. Would be too perfect.

        • On June 27, 2018 at 1:05 pm,
          spanky says:

          And of course some here will claim to trade a bear market on the long side perfectly.

          • On June 27, 2018 at 3:33 pm,
            b says:

            lol

            Nah, ur outlook is too bleak, its a good time to buy.

  2. On June 27, 2018 at 11:58 am,
    Charles says:

    I have learned to have a lot of patience!

  3. On June 27, 2018 at 12:36 pm,
    CFS says:

    On June 27, 2018 at 12:31 pm,
    CFS says:
    What drives the price of gold?

    Is it physical supply and demand?
    I would suggest not. Perhaps a slight dependence for large amounts, but, in general, there appears to be little dependence of price on demand or supply.

    Given that sentiment correlates with demand, does not a lack of correlation with demand imply there is no dependence on sentiment?

    The price appears to be dependent on the COMEX.
    How many times do we have to prove that the COMEX is manipulated?

    I.E. Is it not stupid to try to find ANY other correlation?

    Only what is the criminal behavior of COMEX operators counts!

    Question to self…..so why do I bother to read other comments and listen to speculation or charts?

    • On June 27, 2018 at 2:04 pm,
      spanky says:

      Because logic doesn’t dictate markets in short run.

  4. On June 27, 2018 at 1:10 pm,
    spanky says:

    SLV broke its lower triangle trendline on the weekly chart today. Something tells me we are going to gave to go a lot lower to finally shake the dumba$$ small speculators out of their long positions. One day or one week is not going to do it. It’s going to have to take a real breakdown over at least 3 weeks. I’m going to guess we won’t see a major low until around mid July, at which point it could be significantly lower than today.

  5. On June 27, 2018 at 2:07 pm,
    Zlatan says:

    All the bearishness in here tells me…we are headed for a nice buying opportunity 🙂

    • On June 28, 2018 at 4:19 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Zlatan. Sentiment is low in the metals, pricing is getting down to oversold levels, yet gold is still above the most recent low of $1238 (and nowhere close to the Dec 2015 low of $1045.40) so all the blustering bearish nonsense won’t last much longer. It’s quite possible the reversal will start in many sectors after today’s full moon madness as a turning point. A bounce is overdue on a short-term basis, and medium term I’d still expect to see a nice rally out of late August into September that may kick off a much larger rally into Q1 of 2019.

      Those languishing in daily despair are only working themselves up into a frenzy on moves of less than 1%. Pretty silly, but that what makes a market.

  6. On June 27, 2018 at 2:52 pm,
    spanky says:

    Every peak and every trough on the Dow is matched by GDX beat for beat.

    Those thinking miners escape, or heaven forbid rally, in the face of a falling stock market are blind and delusional.

  7. On June 27, 2018 at 6:57 pm,
    Brad says:

    What have we learned? We should be learning that many people, not least of all technicians, are very confused about things like “correlation” and “causation.” The things people are always trying to find correlations between may not even exist. X caused Y. Really? Prove it empirically. Look at the longer term charts and see there is precious little relationship between what is happening with the price of the US dollar and gold (for example). Short term, people act like geniuses. But long term? Confused indeed. Everyone wants to know “Why?” Why is gold down? “But of course, because the dollar is going up and rates are going up.” But what about when rates were going down for years and gold was tanking? Or when the dollar was down all last year and gold did squat and the miners took a shit? Most of the time we have no idea what is happening. Why did the NASDQ drop over 120 points this afternoon after starting up this morning? Who the hell knows! But I am sure there are lots so-called analysts who will want to feed you an answer or two.

    • On June 28, 2018 at 9:34 am,
      Matthew says:

      You’re doing it wrong, Brad. If you want to know how the dollar is really doing (in terms of purchasing power), you should look at the gold charts by themselves. It’s useless to focus on the USD index since it consists of nothing but equally problematic paper.
      Gold is only trading at 1200+ because the dollar has lost a huge amount of purchasing power. It averaged roughly $400 between 1980 and 2000 and was $35 from 1934 to 1971.
      Just like virtually everything else, gold is so “expensive” only because the dollar is heading for its intrinsic value — zero.

  8. On June 27, 2018 at 8:28 pm,
    GH says:

    Lots of sour comments–definitely a good sign.

    I’m glad to have been out of the mining stocks for the last couple of months, but it hasn’t changed the bullish big picture at all, at least not yet. I hope to get a good entry point near the next ICL. And yes, once again, this ICL *could* be the launching point for an incredible bull run, or the last best entry point before a multi-year sustained rise.

    Why spend energy on negativity that could be spent learning how to swing trade daily or weekly cycles, if you don’t have patience for the multi-year game?

    • On June 27, 2018 at 8:37 pm,
      GH says:

      The multi-year game in gold itself was to buy at the end of 2015 and hold, according to the charts so far. Quite possibly just like it was a buy and hold in 1974, or 2000.

      • On June 28, 2018 at 4:39 am,
        Excelsior says:

        +2015

      • On June 28, 2018 at 9:24 am,
        b says:

        Bobs article this morning provides yet more hope for the bulls.
        A full moon is on its way.

        Just 1 teansy issue with full moons, sometimes they cause an acceleration, in this case it might be to the downside.

        Dent could yet be proven a genius.

        I have to stick with my guess tho, bounce in july and down for the beginning of a bull run in aug.

        I really cant say I enjoy taking an opposite view from Dent, its gotta make ya nervous.

        • On June 28, 2018 at 9:36 am,
          Matthew says:

          Bulls that have a brain don’t need any hope and Dent will remain a joke to anyone who gets it.

    • On June 28, 2018 at 4:38 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed GH. The more bearish bluster I read, the more calm I get, as it is starting to get over the top and most of these commentators are the best counter-indicators available. We are close to a short-term directional change and the full moon madness today may actually mark the turn.

      Gold hasn’t even made a new recent lower low beneath $1238 and some on here act like the goose is cooked.

      In fact, some pundits seem to have amnesia that in 2018 the high in Gold ($1369.40) actually already took out the 2017 high of ($1362.40), so Gold is much closer to making new highs if anything.

      Let’s just say that $1238 falls and Gold does make a lower recent low…. does that mean it will plunge down $200 more and take out $1045.40 from the Dec 2015 low? Incredibly unlikely, so people need to deal in the real. (instead of continuing to squeal)

      The low for Gold is in from 2 1/2 years ago, and anyone that can’t look at a chart and see that doesn’t have 2 brain cells to rub together.

      The bias and trend since the major bottom has been a slow grind back upwards, and there have been a few great rallies to make money on the metals and miners, and conversely a few corrections back down to test sentiment. Rinse and repeat.

      Bottom line – jockos like Harry Dent calling for $800 Gold $600 Gold $400 Gold the last few years have been just as wrong and ridiculous as people calling for $5000-$10000 Gold anytime soon.

      The reality is Gold bottomed over 2 1/2 years ago, and has steadily clawed back a few hundred bucks. The miners are not all syncopated together and there have been PLENTY of opportunities to trade the miners, scout out exploration stories that surged, position in takeover stories (I’ve already been in 6 takeovers just this year — not counting 2016 or 2017), and there are still producers that have improved their economics and had nice runs. It has been a time to be selective though, as we haven’t hit a raging bull market that raises the tide on all the miners (with the exception of the initial impulse leg up the first 8 months of 2016). The last 2 years has been for stock pickers (not dart throwers). Those that don’t realize that haven’t been paying attention, and their generalist approach, and recency bias has blinded them opportunities popping all around them.

      Lastly investors in many of the Base and Battery Metals like Zinc, Copper, Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel have had a number of huge wins over the last few years, and is why being diversified makes so much sense. Arizona Mining (formerly Wildcat Silver) was just taken out a huge 1.3 Billion premium, Tinka Resources surged by 36% earlier this week on a monster drill hole, Garibaldi surged up 15 times last year, many of the Lithium stocks were easy 5-15 baggers since late 2015/early 2016, and many of the cobalt stocks followed suit next.

      People that dwell on the price of Gold/Silver or GLD/SLV are missing all these trades and are oblivious to most of the interesting stories that have been popping in the resource sector over the last few years. Even Oil has had a massive recovery and there have been all kinds of great runs in their stocks, yet if you listened to the turkeys on here you’d think commodities were dead and going nowhere.

      That’s what makes a market, but for those that have been paying attention there are a dozen interesting resource stock plays every month, and it’s been that way for the last few years. The problem is most aren’t paying attention, are lazy researchers, and have blinders as to how they evaluate the markets through the narrow lens of terribly weighted ETFs and a few pet stocks. Look at the whole breadth of companies, look at undervalued opportunities, look for improving production metrics, look for development stage progress, and look for exploration upside and there has been and will be plenty of money to be made in this space.

  9. On June 28, 2018 at 4:44 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (ZNX) ZincX Resources Commences 2018 Drill Program at Akie

    @fscwire on June 28, 2018

    https://ceo.ca/@fscwire/zincx-resources-commences-2018-drill-program-at-akie

  10. On June 28, 2018 at 4:52 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Here’s a few smaller/mid-tier producers in Gold/Silver that have provided good opportunities since the Dec lows of 2017, for those paying attention.

    http://www.stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?TGZ.TO,SGI.V,PRU.TO,IPT.V,MYA.V,HMX.V&p=4&O=011000

    • On June 28, 2018 at 4:55 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Super scary First Majestic chart from 2018. (ooooohhh so frightening!!)

      http://schrts.co/an6tEF

      • On June 28, 2018 at 4:59 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I’m freaking out over this Endeavour Silver chart man…… So spooky!! (lol)

        http://schrts.co/jAz18u

        • On June 28, 2018 at 5:01 am,
          Excelsior says:

          The end of the world in Gold miners is nigh…… K92 scares me as it breaks out to new highs….

          http://schrts.co/niSZYf

          • On June 28, 2018 at 5:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Silver miners are in trouble so tighten up you vest…. unless you got positioned in Silvercrest:

            http://schrts.co/g8n3Z3

          • On June 28, 2018 at 5:10 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Gold miners are in trouble… I guess that’s why Guyana Goldstrike just doubled….

            http://schrts.co/Cma5EK

          • On June 28, 2018 at 5:15 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Adriatic had a monster discovery drill hole earlier this month and has tripled since then…

            Yep…. what terrible returns these miners offer….. (gimme a break)

            https://ceo.ca/adt.ax

  11. On June 28, 2018 at 5:20 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Oh….. and stay the heck out of Copper stocks like Trilogy Metals…. unless you’re interested in getting a trilogy of gains…..

    http://schrts.co/Do1FPN

    • On June 28, 2018 at 5:23 am,
      Charles says:

      funny stuff Ex! LOL!

      • On June 28, 2018 at 5:31 am,
        Excelsior says:

        😉

  12. On June 28, 2018 at 4:29 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Frustration seems to be a catalyst in PMs sentiment. The question is: what particular event is going to drive gold through the $1360 region this year?