Rick Ackerman’s Technical Forecasts – Thu 12 Jul, 2018
Copper, Yield Curve, Gold, and US Markets
Rick Ackerman joins me with comments on the copper price, flattening of the yield curve, gold, and how Amazon impacts the the broad averages. Always looking for a top and why investors in a broad sense are going to get out of the markets the charts keep on pointing higher.
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BDC says:
Head fake turn?: https://s33.postimg.cc/xsbjqvnb3/SLV-20180712-_Slopes.jpg
Matthew says:
Final turn looks more likely.
Matthew says:
http://schrts.co/FZZbyf
Matthew says:
That’s a 2hr chart so many of you won’t be able to view it.
Wolfster says:
Yes I’m still lurking just really busy. See many of the gold exploration plays I follow have based and have started turning upwards fwiw.
Matthew says:
Yes, that is one of many “hidden” positives. The miners have exhibited more strength than most realize for months now.
BDC says:
AG uptrend accumulation into bad news and poor PM prices is impressive.
spanky says:
As far as GDX:GLD is concerned, nothing goes down in a straight line.
Matthew says:
The breaking of the 2.5 year uptrend support looks like a head fake to me — but we’ll see…
http://schrts.co/qxZCKK
BDC says:
Exactly.
spanky says:
How on earth could you possibly know that? You should have qualified you statement with “I hope.”
Matthew says:
Spanky, you should quit assuming that you know everything. I realize you can’t handle more than a single black candle or moving average, but try to remind yourself that there are many, MANY other factors to consider that you are utterly clueless about.
Next, work on your English. If I were trying to imply that I “know”, then why would I end with “we’ll see?
spanky says:
Don’t get me wrong, I think the miners losing their bull trend last year will culminate in either a much much longer basing period than you dreamed or a very steep decline over the next 6 months.
I think the latter scenario is more likely.
Rick says:
Using my own technical methods. SLV is a tough call right now, although I tip mildly toward a bearish target at 13.39 over the next 3-4 months. The bounce from 14.44 was in the perfect spot to turn the weekly chart bullish, but SLV so far has failed to take advantage. Best case, if it doesn’t dip first below 14.74, would be a rally to 17.44.
Matthew says:
Thank you, Rick. Based on an approach that’s not nearly as elegant as yours, I’m betting it heads for your best case sooner rather than later.
spanky says:
You will be lucky if it manages to backtest the triangle trendline. I don’t think it will even do that. The pin is going to be pulled imminently.
Matthew says:
Nooo, you mean long scared crybabies will be lucky.
spanky says:
AMZN new all time high today. Will break $2000 soon.
Meanwhile, the miners put in ugly black reversal candles today across the board. Down we go!
Rick says:
I’ve been using an 1843.29 target for AMZN as a minimum upside projection, but possibly 1863.39 if any higher. I don’t expect these ‘Hidden Pivot’ resistance points to give way easily, but if they do I’d say a 2007.92 target is well in play.
spanky says:
AMZN is the prime beneficiary (no pun intended) of the Fed’s interest rate policies over the last 20 years. It is a juggernaut now of human, financial and political capital and there is no end in sight IMO.
Rick says:
Interesting point, Spanky. The abillity to exploit all of these factors to-the-max makes Bezos look even more like a genius.
spanky says:
It’s not quite as bad as Jamie Dimon thinking he is a genius after getting bailed out and backstopped by the Fed and US govt, but Bezos clearly has absolutely no moral or philosophical issues with fascism (the merger of corporation and state).
Markedtofuture says:
CFTC Approves Record $30 Million Award For JP Morgan Whistle-Blower
The CFTC has finally approved what is expected to be the largest award in the history of its whistle-blower-awards program: According to Bloomberg, the commission has authorized a $30 million award for information about JP Morgan neglecting to inform its wealthy asset-management clients about conflicts of interest involving the bank’s investment recommendations.
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9113/tfmr-podcast-thursday-july-12
Markedtofuture says:
Correct link
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-12/cftc-approves-record-30-million-award-jp-morgan-whistleblower
spanky says:
The metals are tied to the hip with yen ($XJY). With today’s follow through lower, and decisive H&S breakdown, it is bombs away for $XJY. Any bounce will be shorted. The only way shorts will cover is if price breaks back above the neckline. Otherwise, I think it is going dramatically lower over the next 6-8 months, together with all things shiny.
Yen could bounce off the declining 200 WMA soon, but it will be nothing but a shorting opportunity.