Chris Temple from The National Investor – Mon 24 Dec, 2018

How Risk-Off Markets Play Out

Chris Temple joins me this Christmas Eve to share his thoughts on the weakness in US equities. We also look at gold and oil as a couple other markets to consider.

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Comments:
  1. On December 24, 2018 at 1:15 pm,
    BobUK says:

    Merry Christmas to all you folks.

    • On December 24, 2018 at 3:28 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Merry Christmas to the KER crew and thanks for all that they do.

    • On December 25, 2018 at 11:37 am,
      CFS says:

      On this Christmas Day I wish to thank all involved with KEReport for making the site interesting and informative on many economic topics. Thanks Big Al, Corey et al.

  2. On December 24, 2018 at 2:23 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    This market may be oversold but when a Big Bull Market starts to collapse the sins of the profit years start to become apparent. Hedge Funds are always involved in all kinds of dubious practices. Bull markets hide the bad, Bear Markets expose the good and the bad. DT

    • On December 24, 2018 at 3:28 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      We are now in a bear market — here’s what that means
      Kate Rooney – 5 Hours Ago

      – A “bear market” is when stocks see a 20 percent decline or more from a recent high — but they’re also marked by overall pessimism on Wall Street.
      – Since World War II, bear markets have lasted 13 months on average, and stock markets tend to lose 30.4 percent of their value.
      – During those conditions it usually takes stocks an average 22 months to recover, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs and CNBC.

      https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/24/whats-a-bear-market-and-how-long-do-they-usually-last-.html

  3. On December 24, 2018 at 4:37 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    I’d agree with the comments made by Mr T & Cory that many markets are getting oversold here, and are do for at least a relief rally.

    Odds are there are more rough days in store for the general markets next year, but things have moved down farther than most expected on this recent leg down in the general equities.

    • On December 24, 2018 at 4:38 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      do = due

  4. On December 24, 2018 at 6:17 pm,
    Chris says:

    I got out of stocks, gold and all risk and moved into TLT 5 months ago. TLT hIS the ONLY safe way to play this.

    • On December 25, 2018 at 1:53 am,
      Matthew says:

      Gold is the superior safe haven since it carries no counterparty risk. Obviously, TLT cannot protect you from currency risk the way gold does.
      Had you bought gold 5 months ago (last week of July) instead, you’d be up about 4.5% instead of 3%.

    • On December 25, 2018 at 1:46 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I tried to simply approve this and was not able to so here goes a third time.

      • On December 25, 2018 at 1:47 pm,
        Big Al says:

        This was actually in reply to Paul regarding Doc’s comment.

  5. On December 24, 2018 at 8:07 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Canadian battery maker say’s cost of it’s technology to tumble by half.
    https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/12/24/canadian-battery-maker-says-cost-of-its-technology-to-tumble-by-half.html

    • On December 25, 2018 at 11:33 am,
      CFS says:

      Elon Musk stated about 4 or 5 years ago that he expected batteries to follow Moore’s law in both cost and density for the foreseeable future.
      Indeed, he was relying on that for making electric cars first viable and then profitable.
      I’m not sure he is quite there yet for Tesla.

  6. On December 24, 2018 at 8:10 pm,
    johnnygeneric says:

    I sold my OILD with a 40% gain. Will be buying USO puts now.

  7. On December 24, 2018 at 8:11 pm,
    johnnygeneric says:

    EWT has been showing this drop in oil for months.

  8. On December 25, 2018 at 3:32 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The Dow (DIA) is down 30% versus the gold miners (GDX) and this is just the beginning:
    http://schrts.co/Uzo6cF

  9. On December 25, 2018 at 3:42 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The gold-oil ratio has rocketed as much as 87% in the last three months. This is fantastic for the gold miners even though the ratio might pull back considerably very soon…
    http://schrts.co/TpJV41

  10. On December 25, 2018 at 3:50 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The Dow-gold or gold-Dow picture is far better today than it was just before the big gold miner moves of 2016…
    http://schrts.co/e9X861

  11. On December 25, 2018 at 4:10 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    Sorry to sh*t all over your Christmas but I wanted to post this before I forget. This is about the Ocrassio-Cortez “Green New Deal.”

    House Democrats Are Lining Up Behind What Could Be The Largest Expansion Of Government In Decades

    More than 40 Democratic lawmakers support the “Green New Deal” as part of a broad plan to fight global warming and bring about what they see as “economic, social and racial justice.” A poll found most Americans supported the deal, but knew little about it.

    https://dailycaller.com/2018/12/25/democrats-green-new-deal/

    And surprise, surprise…the sheeple are for it! And believe you me, they are going to get it good and hard. It won’t happen while Trump is in office but what happens when the Demorats win back the White House and Congress? The sheeple will get it good and hard!

    • On December 25, 2018 at 4:20 pm,
      Matthew says:

      You are right, the sheeple WILL get it good and hard. Thank goodness for that!

  12. On December 25, 2018 at 4:15 pm,
    Ebolan says:

    And here’s what winning in Afghanistan looks like. If you get the chance watch the documentary.

    You will NEVER see this on the lamestream media. The Empire has poured over a trillion dollars down the Afghan toilet and is still spending tens of billions of dollars of your tax dollars every year to support drug addicted child molesters and one of the most corrupt and unpopular gooberments on earth.

    What does Jimbo McKinney have to say to all this? I’m sure nothing to see here, folks. Just move along now (and don’t dare watch that documentary).

    https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/what-winning-in-afghanistan-really-looks-like-aEfNfvWPNUmwiQBckdTKNQ/

  13. On December 26, 2018 at 9:15 am,
    Matthew says:

    The S&P 500 index is catching a bid after piercing the 200 week MA for the first time in 7 years. This is a bounce, not the end of the decline.
    http://schrts.co/kvJoLb

  14. On December 26, 2018 at 9:19 am,
    Matthew says:

    The following chart won’t show today’s action until this evening but silver is now confirming gold and is above its weekly Bollinger Band.
    http://schrts.co/9fS57g

  15. On December 26, 2018 at 9:22 am,
    Matthew says:

    The double-top in UUP:GLD (USD vs Gold) looks like a done-deal…
    http://schrts.co/Zvqmpc

    • On December 26, 2018 at 9:51 am,
      Matthew says:

      UUP has now risen to fill its weekly chart gap to the penny:
      http://schrts.co/UzLdNY

  16. On December 26, 2018 at 9:24 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDX ran into a little fork resistance today but I don’t think it will last long…
    http://schrts.co/hFJFLs

  17. On December 26, 2018 at 9:29 am,
    Matthew says:

    The junior silvers are putting in a massive low versus the senior golds just in time for the new year. This is extra exciting if you’re as bullish the senior golds as I am…
    http://schrts.co/E5Y4sb