Chris Vermeulen - The Technical Traders – Tue 22 Jan, 2019

Oil and Commodities Considering Money Flows

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on the oil market and general commodities. We consider the USD chart and a time frame for when the dollar could top and metals finally start an uptrend.

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Comments:
  1. On January 22, 2019 at 1:50 pm,
    CFS says:
    • On January 22, 2019 at 2:16 pm,
      Matthew says:

      “How can you call this anything other than still bullish.” -Ira
      Exactly. The bears missed the obvious when the move began and they will likely continue to.

      • On January 23, 2019 at 6:49 am,
        Excelsior says:

        +1

  2. On January 22, 2019 at 3:25 pm,
    CFS says:
    • On January 22, 2019 at 3:37 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      China corporate debt is staggering……since 2000….see at about 1:02
      What is the Chinese word for Jubilee……

  3. On January 22, 2019 at 3:45 pm,
    CFS says:

    I do not often state opinions. I much prefer to quote raw data, original speeches, etc, and let others draw conclusions.
    When I state an opinion, I usually use “I believe….”
    I do like to ask questions, however. Not question like: “Will the stock market fall?”
    But “If the stock market falls what will the response of the treasury be?
    What will be the response of the bond market?
    What will politicians do? ……”

    Answering those type of questions leads me to conclusions……and hence opinions.

    So. What do you think will be Trump’s response and orders to the treasury if the general stock market has a significant fall?

    I find it hard to believe any other response than QE large as an attempt to prop things up and kick the can down the road.

    Pure economics, on the other hand, indicates the stock market should only be at about half of where it currently is. (Historic P/Es, Schiller P/Es, etc..)
    Will the treasury succeed in propping the stock market up?
    I believe that it probably will have limited success, but not complete success.

    • On January 22, 2019 at 4:00 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      I think that is a good opinion, concerning the reaction……..or responses….
      and I agree with the point on the P/Es.

  4. On January 22, 2019 at 4:26 pm,
    CFS says:
  5. On January 22, 2019 at 10:16 pm,
    Matthew says:
  6. On January 22, 2019 at 10:45 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold is strong and the current uptrend is much more sustainable than that of 2016…
    http://schrts.co/nQbKHTnC

    • On January 23, 2019 at 6:37 am,
      spanky says:

      send a memo to silver miners. Thx

      • On January 23, 2019 at 9:20 am,
        Matthew says:

        At least silver got the memo and it also looks better than it did in early 2016…
        http://schrts.co/NuFGhJkP

        The miners will catch up quickly once the market believes that the metals are not heading for new lows.

  7. On January 23, 2019 at 6:35 am,
    spanky says:

    USDJPY set to test the 50 dma and/or 200 dma at 111.

    FOMC on the 29th–next Tuesday. Expect metals and miners to stay weak into that meeting.

    I’ll stick by my call of an intermediate cycle low by next week. If it extends beyond that, there is a very good chance that the miners will give up the cloud support they have enjoyed on the daily chart, which would support Doc’s scenario of weakness into midyear.

  8. On January 23, 2019 at 6:44 am,
    spanky says:

    $hui should get some sort of bounce next week. It’s been oversold since the 15th on the daily chart stochastics and typically 2 weeks is about the upper limit on the stochastics staying oversold. I would not expect a repeat of July-August 2018 any time soon.

    The black candle from Dec. 4th will probably get taken out soon, if not today..

  9. On January 23, 2019 at 8:54 am,
    spanky says:

    SILJ:SLV making a new low on the daily chart yesterday bothers me. While there could be a rebound back to the 100 dma in the near term, conventional wisdom would be that SILJ will follow the ratio and is going to make a new low eventually.
    Whatever.

    • On January 23, 2019 at 9:16 am,
      Matthew says:

      On the bright side, selling strength was weak. Look at the RSI’s positive divergence…
      http://schrts.co/bqmfbkWX

      Also keep in mind how illiquid SILJ is. Yesterday’s total volume was worth well under $700,000. At over $500,000,000, GDXJ is roughly 750 times more liquid. Down or up, SILJ easily gets pushed around beyond what its holdings call for. Such disconnects are probably always brief but I am sure they are common.