David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 19 Feb, 2019

Gold Breaking Out Against Other Currencies and A GDX Gap Higher

David Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky joins me to share his thoughts on the move higher in gold. Still within a backdrop of low sentiment gold is continuing the trend higher. There are many encouraging signs for the metal as it seems slowly money mangers are allocating a little money to the PMs. Also GDX put in a gap today and back on January 25th. We weigh in on which of these gaps might be filled.

Click here to visit David’s site. I highly recommend signing up for his newsletter if you invest in PM juniors.

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Comments:
  1. On February 19, 2019 at 10:56 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On February 19, 2019 at 11:16 am,
      Matthew says:

      I’ll see your ha ha and raise you an el-OH-el! 😜

      • On February 19, 2019 at 11:21 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Ole……… 🙂

        • On February 19, 2019 at 11:23 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          That was a good………LOL….. funny

  2. On February 19, 2019 at 11:12 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Housing in China ….going down……they might want to buy some gold to hide….
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-19/big-trouble-china-housing-government-bans-malicious-price-cuts

  3. On February 19, 2019 at 11:59 am,
    Matthew says:

    I said IPT was heading for .40 the other day and it has already made it there…
    http://schrts.co/JMEaJYNx

    • On February 19, 2019 at 1:21 pm,
      spanky says:

      The question remains though–can it bust out over 40 cents? that level corresponds to a flat topped cloud on the weekly chart, which more often than not aren’t penetrated. We’ll see. I have a pretty large position in Impact now, so I would love to see it break out sooner rather than later.

  4. On February 19, 2019 at 12:22 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Is that what you call a HUGE MOVE………way to go……looking good….. 🙂
    But, heck, what do I know…..

    • On February 19, 2019 at 12:23 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      that was suppose to be under Matthew…..

    • On February 19, 2019 at 12:25 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It’s not bad for a few hours but it is heading much higher.

      • On February 19, 2019 at 12:28 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        I would agree 100 percent on that one……

  5. On February 19, 2019 at 12:26 pm,
    Matthew says:

    SILJ:DIA (VERY) bullish H&S bottom:
    http://schrts.co/VweqDZFU

  6. On February 19, 2019 at 12:26 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Here is a WAKE UP CALL………guarantee we off to the races…..the word will spread…greed will overtake us all……… 🙂
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-19/little-known-precious-metals-hedge-fund-returned-502-six-years-0

    • On February 19, 2019 at 12:27 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      L00kie……..502% in six years….

      • On February 19, 2019 at 12:28 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Matthew is that your Hedge Fund………

        • On February 19, 2019 at 12:31 pm,
          Matthew says:

          “Plethora?” I think it’s Jim Puplava’s fund!🤣

          • On February 19, 2019 at 12:33 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            the Plethora Precious Metals Fund is a tiny, or “under the radar” as it prefers, hedge fund that you have probably never heard of – and they like it this way.

          • On February 19, 2019 at 12:34 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I will start liking Jim again….then… 🙂

          • On February 19, 2019 at 12:38 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I was kidding, of course. You some of you might remember that Jim was in love with the word years ago.

          • On February 19, 2019 at 1:08 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I stopped listening to Jim P……concerning the Peak Oil…..bs.

          • On February 19, 2019 at 1:11 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            So, I missed the plethora , over usage

  7. On February 19, 2019 at 12:28 pm,
    Bonzo Barzini says:

    Wonder if Doc bought more NGD when it got slammed?

    • On February 19, 2019 at 12:40 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Silly Marin Katusa was wondering if it might go off the board (at one of the investment conferences a few months ago). It won’t.

  8. On February 19, 2019 at 12:41 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Two weeks ago when many thought gold was “overdone” and ready for a correction:

    On February 5, 2019 at 12:04 pm,
    Matthew says:
    I have a different take on gold. I think its downside is limited to a short term move to no less than 1295. It has already become overbought on the daily chart and is near overbought on the weekly chart BUT, unlike the 2016 setup, the monthly chart is lagging the weekly by roughly four months with respect to MACD buy signals. The weekly and monthly signals were in sync in ’16 and that is probably part of the reason the sector went straight up. This time, however, the monthly MACD is just now giving its buy signal while the weekly MACD did so in October. Just as the weekly chart trumps the daily, the monthly chart trumps the weekly. So weekly scale pullbacks will probably be shallow and brief as the monthly chart “pulls” the weekly chart into its most bullish looking (and overbought) run in many years. I know that will be met with more than a little skepticism after the years we’ve just experienced but we do have the setup.
    Bull markets have to start somewhere and they don’t tip-toe into view when they do.
    Monthly gold (for stockcharts subscribers):
    http://schrts.co/PqjVhRRE

    • On February 19, 2019 at 1:20 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Not me…..

  9. On February 19, 2019 at 1:05 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The “melt-up” that I said was possible is here.
    http://schrts.co/bMJxcuRM

  10. On February 19, 2019 at 1:13 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Gold looking good after hours……..jmo

  11. On February 19, 2019 at 1:48 pm,
    spanky says:

    I think Gary Savage has a very good point. It’s possible we get a break out above the inverse H&S neckline in gold that has been building in gold for the last 6 years or so. Gary thinks smart money will be unloading into that break out and price will come back down thereafter and we finally get our intermediate correction. Gary mentions that gold could be forming a cup and handle. We are in the process of forming the cup. The intermediate correction will correspond to the handle.

    I dunno, that sounds like a decent scenario of how that plays out.

    • On February 19, 2019 at 8:06 pm,
      Matthew says:

      If it weren’t for the monthly chart, I’d say Gary might be onto something. There will almost certainly be a reaction at the breakout area but I doubt that it will be sufficient to form a proper handle.
      I think it is more likely that big money pours in and quickly overwhelms any selling that is done based on the (usually very important) weekly chart. I have favored the upside crash scenario since before I knew anything about Michael Oliver and have mentioned it more than once since 2016.

  12. On February 19, 2019 at 4:26 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Smart money……after 6 yrs…….lol

  13. On February 19, 2019 at 5:07 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Only Question Gold Mining Bulls Need To Answer Today

    by @Goldfinger on February 19, 2019

    https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/the-only-question-gold-mining-bulls-need-to-answer-today

  14. On February 19, 2019 at 5:51 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On February 19, 2019 at 5:52 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      There is little doubt that the dovish tilt by Powell has helped gold, but if you look at when the rally started, it was way before his post-Christmas cave.

      I don’t have any wonderfully original insights to present to you today. Rather, what little I can offer is to connect some dots and make a guess that the timing is finally lining up for some bigger picture macro trends that have been brewing for some time.

      I urge you to read the recent report by the World Gold Council titled “Gold Demand Trends Full year and Q4 2018. From the executive summary:

      • On February 19, 2019 at 5:53 pm,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Look at those figures closely. Central Bank buying up 74% year-over-year! Highest annual net purchases since Nixon closed the gold window! T

        • On February 19, 2019 at 5:53 pm,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          DING>DING>DING….

          • On February 19, 2019 at 5:54 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Central Bank buying up 74% year-over-year!

          • On February 19, 2019 at 5:55 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            This is not ROCKET SCIENCE …….TOO THE MOON>>>>>>>>> 🙂

          • On February 19, 2019 at 5:59 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Whether it’s gold priced in CNY, EUR, JPY or AUD, it’s all the same chart – gold has had a strong rally in every currency.

          • On February 19, 2019 at 6:54 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            CENTRAL BANKS BUYING UP>>>>74%

  15. On February 19, 2019 at 6:42 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Caution is required as gold approaches major resistance. An impressive continuation of this rally nonetheless however!

    • On February 19, 2019 at 7:32 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      The 2016 surge high in #Gold was $1377.50, and that has been the line in the sand to cross to get the money in off the sidelines and illustrate a new impulse leg to the upside is under way. $1350 and $1360 are just nice round numbers, but the target to clear has been and is $1377.50.

      The first attempt in 2017 was $1362.40 and the second in 2018 was $1369.40.

      Looking to see if we get a #ThreeTimesACharm rally that makes it through $1377.50

      6 Year Gold #Chart showing prior peaks:

      http://schrts.co/faiudYIh

      • On February 19, 2019 at 7:47 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Basically Ex, if we can hold $1380, then maybe, just maybe gold can put some sustained growth together before we hit the so called summer doldrums. We shall see but I cant help be a glass half empty guy at this stage

        • On February 19, 2019 at 7:52 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed Ozibatla. A sustained move above the 2016 high of $1377.50 or rounding up…. $1380 would do the trick to get some money in off the sidelines.

          It is good that Gold is surging higher in most currencies, but I agree it is a bit like Charlie Brown running up to kick the football and having it yanked away over and over again….

          https://media.giphy.com/media/Ou18ZgE49Fss0/giphy.gif

        • On February 19, 2019 at 8:17 pm,
          Matthew says:

          I think this stage calls for a full glass. There is nothing negative going on and the big picture has only been improving. The monthly gold chart hasn’t looked so good in many years and is certainly better than it was in 2016.

          • On February 19, 2019 at 8:31 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            Your points are valid Matthew but once bitten, twice shy right?
            Who knows maybe this time is different???

          • On February 19, 2019 at 9:27 pm,
            Matthew says:

            No, this time is not different. If it appears to be, then I’d question what other “time” you’re comparing it to.

            I think that old saying is overused and misapplied.

          • On February 20, 2019 at 4:37 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I believe Ozibatla was referring to the last few attempts for Gold to break through the $1370+ zone up and definitively take out the 2016 high of $1377.50.

            It looked good in 2017 but then petered out at $1362.40 and then looked possible this time last year in 2018 but topped out at $1369.40.

            Personally, I believe we’ll see a new recent high in US dollar terms this year in 2019, and possibly on this current move higher. Gold at $1347 is only $30 away from that level so it is still very doable.

          • On February 20, 2019 at 4:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Gold Market Update

            Clive Maund – Tuesday, February 19, 2019

            “Gold has been turned back so many times in recent years from the strong resistance approaching the $1400 level, that most investors have now been well trained, like Pavlov’s dog, to expect it like clockwork, and as we know, it is just when this mindset prevails that gold is likely to surprise the majority by actually breaking out above this level.”

            “Looking at our latest 10-year chart for gold it’s not hard to see why most investors are defeatist about gold’s chances of breaking out. After all it has made 5 more serious attempts to break above this level since mid-2013 and all have failed. Even if they see what we see on this chart, which is gold approaching completion of a giant complex Head-and-Shoulders bottom, they are still skeptical. They will mutter something about “The Cartel” and their power to clobber gold at will by manufacturing an infinite supply of paper shorts, which they then dump on the market when most of us are asleep – isn’t it supposed to be 300 to 1 leverage now, or is it 3000 to 1? – I’ve lost track. Their dastardly objective, we are told, is to maintain confidence in the fiat money system for as long as possible, because they can point to gold’s feeble performance and say “Look, if it’s so bad, why isn’t gold going through the roof?” This negative outlook towards gold is of course promoted by the MSM (mainstream media), one of whose Prime Directives is to keep the average investor on the wrong side of the trade.” – Clive Maund

            https://www.clivemaund.com/gmu.php?art_id=68&date=2019-02-19

          • On February 20, 2019 at 4:48 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto Matthew……on the Full Glass……..I guess some did not read my post article concerning the CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES…….

          • On February 20, 2019 at 5:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            OOTB – I had posted about the central bank purchases last week, so we were just letting you get caught up. 🙂 😉

          • On February 20, 2019 at 5:10 am,
            Excelsior says:

            “If Gold is a relic of history, why do Central Banks + the IMF still hold over $1 trillion of gold? If it’s meaningless, why is everybody still holding it?”

            – Alan Greenspan

          • On February 20, 2019 at 5:39 am,
            Matthew says:

            Ex, I agree that Ozibatla was referring to gold taking out those highs and gold will but “this time” should not be compared with those prior attempts.
            Most people have heard that the most dangerous words in investing are “it’s different this time” and that is true if you compare each “time” with the correct time before. Cyclically and technically, is not like the “times” of the last several years. In other words, the dangers of those words do not apply.
            Markets do not embark on sustained bull moves when important long term moving averages are still falling – as they were in 2016. So the current intermediate cycle has more in common with one of the late 1970s than with those we just experienced.
            http://schrts.co/fyVQFsIm

          • On February 20, 2019 at 5:49 am,
            Matthew says:

            But there’s more. A quick scroll through the following pdf should make it clear that “this time is different” probably originally referred to the macro economic conditions that bring about booms and busts…
            https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/this-time-is-different-reinhart-e.pdf

          • On February 20, 2019 at 5:50 am,
            Matthew says:

            Correction: “Cyclically and technically, THIS is not like the “times” of the last several years.”

          • On February 20, 2019 at 9:11 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ex sorry…..did not see it……I was up in chicago last week. val day…..went to see sarah brightman……..

          • On February 20, 2019 at 9:14 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            The queen and the pedos are not giving up their gold…….. 🙂

          • On February 20, 2019 at 9:15 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Debt Jubilee coming and the queen better get prepared…… 🙂

          • On February 20, 2019 at 11:49 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ex….I went back to find your post…….Found it on Sat…..What is funny, just like my post….nobody commented……..Is anyone awake…. 🙂

  16. On February 19, 2019 at 7:27 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Good to see some green on the screen today in Silver Miners

    Symbol – #Silver #Producers – Chg %

    EXN.TO Excellon Resources Inc. +16.8421% –
    ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. +15.31% –
    IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. +11.7647% –
    MYA.TO Maya Gold and Silver Inc. +11.5207% –
    GPL Great Panther Silver Limited +8.71% –
    HL Hecla Mining Company +8.55% –
    SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. +8.3333% –
    GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +8.00% –
    AG First Majestic Silver Corp. +6.79% –
    CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. +6.58% –
    EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. +6.49% –
    SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. +5.44% –
    TAHO Tahoe Resources Inc. +4.56% –
    PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. +4.22% –
    HMX.V Hunt Mining Corp. +3.8462% –
    USAS Americas Silver Corporation +3.51% –
    FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +2.74% –
    HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc +0.73% –
    FRES.L Fresnillo PLC +0.33% –
    SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +0.14%

    • On February 19, 2019 at 7:31 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      A little more interest in Silver Jrs today….

      Symbol – #Silver #Developers & #Explorers – Chg %

      AZS.V Arizona Silver Exploration Inc. +26.09%
      NNA.V New Nadina Explorations Limited +25.00%
      MMG.V Metallic Minerals Corp. +23.53%
      PLA.V Plata Latina Minerals Corporation +20.00%
      LVN.TO Levon Resources Ltd. +18.52%
      SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +13.64%
      AVX.V Altair Resources Inc. +11.11%
      SBR.TO Silver Bear Resources Plc +10.7143%
      DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +9.52%
      CCM.TO Canarc Resource Corp. +8.33%
      PSL.V Prospero Silver Corp. +7.69%
      ASL.V Argentum Silver Corp. +7.14%
      CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. +7.14%
      AUN.V Aurcana Corporation +6.45%
      AUMN Golden Minerals Company +6.43%
      REX.V Orex Minerals Inc. +5.88%
      DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +5.62%
      MRP.AX MacPhersons Resources Limited +4.55%
      AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +4.55%
      SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +3.23%
      BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +2.98%
      MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +2.84%
      SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +2.56%
      NUAG.V New Pacific Metals Corp. +2.56%
      SIL.V SilverCrest Metals Inc. +2.08%
      G1A.AX Galena Mining Limited +1.3889%

    • On February 20, 2019 at 4:42 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (ASM) Avino Provides 2018 Year End Summary and Outlook for 2019

      by @newswire on February 12, 2019

      2018 Production Highlights

      Silver equivalent production – 2,863,753 oz*
      Silver production – 1,286,382 oz
      Gold production – 8,092 oz
      Copper production – 4,819,022 lbs

      “Operationally, 2018 was a year in which we successfully achieved our goal of completing Mill Circuit 4, owing much to the Mexican Operations team and their dedication to the project. Additionally, we completed drill programs on several areas of the Avino property, which successfully outlined longer term targets that warrant further investigation and drilling.” stated David Wolfin, President and CEO. “The Company announced an updated mineral resource estimate in 2018 that increased the measured and indicated resources by 225% at the Avino property. At the Bralorne Gold Mine in British Columbia, we embarked on an exciting and comprehensive exploration drilling program, made possible by way of a Flow-Through share offering in April. Coupled with these achievements, we also endured a year that saw significantly lower metal prices that in turn forced us to implement cost reduction initiatives, which remain in place. A prudent approach to our financial health is vital to the Company’s continued success. Although we have seen a move upward in both gold and silver prices, we continue to remain cost conscious.”

      https://ceo.ca/@newswire/avino-provides-2018-year-end-summary-and-outlook

      • On February 20, 2019 at 5:00 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Two Producing Mines, Two Countries – Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM)

        Cambridge House International #VRIC – January 2019 #VIDEO

        “Jennifer North is the Manager of Investor Relations at Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd (ASM: TSX). The company operates two silver mines in Mexico with a gold project under development in British Columbia.”

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5c4D_6kLNg8&t=1s

  17. On February 19, 2019 at 11:22 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Ok I think you might have misinterpreted what I wrote. “Maybe this time is different” is referring to the possibility that perhaps gold clears and holds major resistance around the $1370 region this time around as opposed the other 6-7 failed attempts over the last few years.

    As far as the saying goes, I used it in the context that I have been optimistic in the past that gold will hold the aforementioned resistance zone only to see it fail time and again. So now I just remain cautious is all.


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