Richard Postma - The Doctor Is In – Mon 25 Feb, 2019

Gold and Copper – Watch The Long Term Charts

With gold continuing to hold strong I have been getting a few questions asking where Doc is seeing the PMs move. Today Doc shares his thoughts on the gold and copper charts. It’s important to consider the long term monthly charts and understanding how extreme this run has gone on for.

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  1. On February 25, 2019 at 11:07 am,
    Matthew says:

    I was not one of the ones emailing Cory but I have to say that I am a slightly surprised that Doc is pretending he hasn’t been wrong since gold will eventually fall. Of course it will fall and even if it makes a shocking (at least to me) new low, Doc will still have been just as wrong about his last several short term calls.
    Context matters and those calls were about the near term. Doc, you were also bearish when gold bottomed in the summer and had much lower targets. Since then, you never called the sector a buy and even consistently said it was going lower, yet now you tell us that you’ve been buying the dips. Hmmm…

    In any case, being long over the last several months did not require throwing caution to the wind.
    The rise has not been “noise” from either a technical or profitability standpoint.
    The monthly chart matters more than the shorter term charts for longer term moves but those who ignore the shorter term signals are making a big mistake. The action has been unambiguously positive/strong/bullish —and that includes the action since last week’s high.
    Gold moved up almost $200 since August and is more overbought than at any time since 2011 so it has earned any correction/consolidation that we might see now.

  2. On February 25, 2019 at 11:11 am,
    Matthew says:

    Near the summer low, I said it would be a big deal when gold takes back the 600 week MA and you can see on the following chart that it was…

    It was not a particularly “slow and grinding motion” in my book. “Healthy” seems like a better description.

  3. On February 25, 2019 at 11:24 am,
    pardu says:

    Doc, if we get a pullback as you say, what about silver? What level are you looking at for silver if gold goes 1220-1250? And what is your time frame, is it July when the dip is projected to end?

  4. On February 25, 2019 at 11:50 am,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Pardu, I believe silver is in good shape currently and it’s long term monthly charts with BBs look fine right now. We would be in trouble if silver would take out $13.86 on a monthly close. Currently, the odds of that happening are very low. I would be surprised if silver corrects much below $14.50. March and April tells the tale on silver. If we level off here in those months then I expect silver to be under pressure until late spring (June).

  5. On February 25, 2019 at 11:53 am,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Pardu, by the way; if people have been adding on pullbacks and holding and not chased these stocks when rising they would be in good positions currently. I do hope for another pullback since the long term charts are now looking very solid.

    • On February 25, 2019 at 10:24 pm,
      BobUK says:

      I think copper has the more potential going forward. Looking at stocks like FCX and Vale more than the likes of Glencore – the first 2 seem to move more in upswings.

      Anyone have thoughts on other colper players?

      • On February 25, 2019 at 10:26 pm,
        BobUK says:

        Oops, not sure why my comment appeared in response to Doc.

  6. On February 25, 2019 at 11:55 am,
    bonzo b. says:

    Hey Doc,
    Did you ever buy any IMBBY, BTI, or MO? I’ve bought all 3 and am glad I did as they have rebounded over 20% from their recent lows. It’s nice to have some stocks with big and growing dividends. Barrick is crazy if they think they can buy NEM at no premium.

  7. On February 25, 2019 at 6:09 pm,
    cmc says:

    Hi Doc. I saw this monthly chart. It is breaking out, no?

    • On February 26, 2019 at 8:17 am,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      CMC; more significanlly would be a downtrend line from the first 2 peaks. If you broke above that line; l believe that wouild be even more significant.

      • On February 26, 2019 at 11:16 am,
        cmc says:

        Thanks, doc. That makes sense to me.

  8. On February 25, 2019 at 6:40 pm,
    GH says:

    $XAU ‘s late 2018 low bottomed at very long term support.

    Looks to me like this intermediate/weekly cycle could run a lot higher before it tops. Two obvious targets are the 600 week moving avg @ ~110-120, and the ~$145 level…over the next year or so?

    The last 35 years of price action forms a megaphone that may indicate a longer term target.

    • On February 25, 2019 at 6:42 pm,
      GH says:

      “intermediate/weekly cycle” – might be better to call it a ‘bull leg’, because it could be more than one weekly cycle.

    • On February 25, 2019 at 8:22 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I won’t be surprised if it’s above both 600 week MAs within a year…

  9. On February 25, 2019 at 11:05 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Barrick CEO defends $18 billion hostile Newmont bid as logical tie-up

    Ernest Scheyder – February 25, 2019

    “Barrick Gold Corp’s chief executive defended the world’s largest gold producer’s hostile $18 billion bid for Newmont Mining Corp, saying on Monday the deal is “logical” for an industry battling high costs and depleting resources.”

  10. On February 25, 2019 at 11:18 pm,
    Max says:

    For me it´s all about capturing the BIG moves/Cycles, these 10-30 % swings are nice but that´s not why i am here.
    I have been buying pm stocks on tax loss and summer doldrums for 2 years, so if we break out, i´m on the train.

    Doc said a long time ago that he will add on pullbacks and not sell.

    On February 4, 2017 at 7:38 am,
    Matthew says:
    I’m with Avi on silver, it is going to have a great year. The silver-gold ratio has been consolidating its Q2 2016 move in a bullish manner. It has been capped by the 200 (& 233) week MA for the last 7 months while the 50 week MA has provided support.

    Despite being well below last year’s high, silver is still worth 23% more gold than it was 11 months ago — and we haven’t seen anything yet.

    On February 4, 2017 at 9:33 am,
    RICHARD/DOC says:
    I will be shocked if gold/silver do much the first half of the year—-the conventional markets should do okay the first half of the year and gold/silver will not take out their highs any time soon. There will be no “fantastic’” move. I’ve put my chips on the table which I don’t do very often.

    Doc is very good, and so are you, Matthew.

    • On February 26, 2019 at 12:18 am,
      Matthew says:

      My point was not that he’s wrong and I’m right but I’ll drop it.

  11. On February 26, 2019 at 6:50 am,
    Max says:

    I know, sorry for bringing it up.

    • On February 26, 2019 at 8:15 am,
      Matthew says:

      It’s just insulting to everyone’s intelligence when he repeatedly says he’s been “bang on” when he wasn’t even close.
      Like you, I am also here primarily for the big moves and you’d be hard pressed to find a more dismal record than Doc’s during the huge move of 2016 – yet he tells it very differently and with plenty of confidence. That shouldn’t sit well with anyone and I am sure that I’m not the only one who notices the discrepancies.
      (For the record, when I was way too bullish in January of last year, and the intermediate term rise ended before I thought it would, I said that I blew it. A few years ago, in an attempt to learn something useful, I did a post-mortem on the gold crash of 2013. Well I did learn something and couldn’t believe how well the weekly gold chart had warned us weeks in advance. Doc was as wrong as anyone at that time and was very bullish before that plunge but you’d never think so based on later interviews.)

      At the bottom of the largest pullback for GDX (-6%) in the last three months, Doc’s words did not promote buying, explicitly or otherwise…
      I don’t expect anyone to bring attention to their bad calls but rewriting history is not ok.

      Well I failed to drop it so I’m the one who should apologize.

      • On February 26, 2019 at 9:11 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        DITTO ON THE BIG MOVE>>>>>>>>>>>

  12. On February 26, 2019 at 7:05 am,
    cmc says:

    There are dips and then there are bigger dips. I bought PMs on the dip in mid Dec 2017 and again early 2018 and, frankly, I’ve been in a hole ever since June, 2018. I should have done most my buying in the second half of 2018. But, still holding, waiting to make good and then some.

    • On February 26, 2019 at 8:06 am,
      Matthew says:

      I am comfortably in the hole with most of my positions right now. That’s part of doing business in this sector as far as I’m concerned.

      • On February 26, 2019 at 8:37 am,
        cmc says:

        Unfortunately, the price of gold has climbed out of the hole, but the PM explorer stocks have not.