Chris Vermeulen - The Technical Traders – Tue 6 Aug, 2019

A look at the downtrend in US markets and oil, and the uptrend in gold

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders joins me today to share his thoughts on the recent downtrend in US markets and oil, plus a couple comments on the gold uptrend. Long term trends are still the most important and until a larger break happens the trend is still higher. more importantly the gold uptrend seems to just be beginning.

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Comments:
  1. On August 6, 2019 at 4:34 pm,
    Ozibatla says:

    Gold is now approaching some stout resistance in my mind. For a couple of years as the previous PM bull market neared its peak then eventually crashed, $1530 served as staunch support for gold. It eventually gave way in April 2013 as the new bear market was confirmed. This price region should now serve as solid resistance at least in the near future. Also being close to such a significant round figure of $1500 could also add to some profit taking.

    All of this is not necessarily a bad thing for gold, allowing for a healthy and gradual surge in the months ahead. The looming trade war in the interim could act as somewhat of a black swan however and continue safe haven appeal flight towards the metals.

    • On August 6, 2019 at 5:09 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Based on volume by price, there’s not much resistance left at any level, but, what little there is begins at 1575…
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=11&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64436024377&a=680989173

      • On August 7, 2019 at 6:43 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        BEST CHART ……I HAVE SEEN……..on Overhead Resistance….
        THANKS MATTHEW……….appreciate…..very much…..

        • On August 7, 2019 at 7:07 am,
          Matthew says:

          You’re welcome Jerry. Just remember that as gold continues higher without a rest, it can lose enough energy to make even modest resistance seem significant.
          Gold WILL take a break at some point and it could happen suddenly. I’m sure you’re mentally ready for that but not everyone will be.

          • On August 7, 2019 at 7:35 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto…………..you are talking to JtheLong……. 🙂

          • On August 7, 2019 at 7:38 am,
            Matthew says:

            I hope so… who do you work for! 😲

          • On August 7, 2019 at 7:38 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Btw…….good point on….”could happen suddenly”

          • On August 7, 2019 at 7:45 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            🙂
            Long gold………

        • On August 7, 2019 at 7:11 am,
          Matthew says:

          The fact that GDX vs GLD still hasn’t moved above its July high might be a warning that some kind of high is happening now.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28791917892&a=680387520

          • On August 7, 2019 at 7:23 am,
            Matthew says:

            For what it’s worth, I’m not taking any evasive measures here with respect to a possible imminent decline.

    • On August 6, 2019 at 5:11 pm,
      Matthew says:

      The Point and Figure chart price objective is 1950 and it will probably be reached more quickly than any of us expect.

    • On August 6, 2019 at 10:06 pm,
      Ozibatla says:

      Good point Matthew. But sentiment could have a say as we approach and possibly break the 1500 barrier. Of course I agree with what you have stated however.

      I agree with your point on silvers move being good for the whole sector too. Would love to see silver make a play towards $18 whilst gold hangs around $1500

      • On August 6, 2019 at 11:15 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Don’t get me wrong about the resistance I’ve pointed to. All else being equal it is light but could become formidable if gold gets there too quickly. Call it sentiment, momentum, strength, gold might not have enough of it left on the first approach. I say “could” and “might not” for a reason though. The current run has already befuddled many top-callers and the next one might as well. The monthly and quarterly charts look good enough to make that a real possibility. Great looking daily charts can happen several times a year but what we have in the monthly and quarterly charts right now happen about once or twice in a generation (just once for the quarterly). So we have something that relatively few have experienced and fewer understand: an impulsive move on a very large scale. The 2016 move foreshadowed things to come (and I pointed that out several times before this move began).

        As I said on the weekend, silver is ready to end its multi-week consolidation and it looks like it will happen on Wednesday. SLV closed one cent above the 233 week MA today and I still think this is the week in which it finally gets above it for good…
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p41332850517&a=619821453

        • On August 7, 2019 at 1:15 am,
          Ozibatla says:

          I for one expected gold to top out a little earlier in price. This impulse move you mention has certainly surprised most in terms of time frame and price. I feel as though the price will correct somewhat in the near future though.

          • On August 7, 2019 at 1:48 am,
            Matthew says:

            Yes, a correction could happen at any time now but it seem like there’s still no sign of weakness.

  2. On August 6, 2019 at 6:49 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Silver has finally moved above its July high. This “confirmation” is good for the whole sector, not just silver.
    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COMEX%3ASI1!

  3. On August 6, 2019 at 6:50 pm,
    Matthew says:
  4. On August 7, 2019 at 12:13 am,
    Excelsior says:

    David Keller – Big Base Breakout for Gold is Here

    by @PalisadeRadio on 6 Aug 2019

    https://ceo.ca/@palisaderadio/david-keller-big-base-breakout-for-gold-is-here

  5. On August 7, 2019 at 6:20 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Alot of worry out there at the moment and golds loving it! For how long though?

    • On August 7, 2019 at 6:31 am,
      Matthew says:

      Despite gaining more than 30% in 2016, gold didn’t show nearly the strength that it is showing now. It peaked that summer with a weekly RSI just touching 70 and a monthly RSI just below 60. This time it is showing the kind of strength that we only see during a bull market with a weekly RSI at almost 80 (clearly higher after this overnight move) and a monthly RSI of about 71 — the first monthly overbought reading since 2011. Based on history, it could continue higher for many months to come.

      • On August 7, 2019 at 6:50 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Agree………spot on……………jmo

      • On August 7, 2019 at 7:20 am,
        Ozibatla says:

        Yeh a weekly RSI of 80+ indicates underlying strength without a doubt. Will be interesting to see how gold handles around the low 1500s now that we are there…

        • On August 7, 2019 at 7:26 am,
          Matthew says:

          It will be very interesting and gold is now above the quarterly Bollinger band for the first time since 2011-12 so any pullback might be brief and/or shallow.

  6. On August 7, 2019 at 6:56 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
  7. On August 7, 2019 at 7:01 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    BIG SIGN OF CONCERN…….
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/when-you-get-email-fed-it-may-be-time-panic
    When You Get An Email Like This From The Fed, It May Be Time To Panic

    • On August 7, 2019 at 7:02 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Specifically, the “rather urgent request” seeks the full Cabana report whose gist, as noted above, is that the Fed will have to launch QE4 in very short notice to offset the upcoming liquidity drain.

  8. On August 7, 2019 at 7:17 am,
    Ozibatla says:

    Yeh theres alot of concern around the global economy. Our day of reckoning is getting closer!

  9. On August 7, 2019 at 7:48 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
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