Weekend Show – Sat 28 Sep, 2019

Hour 1 – Wide Ranging Discussions Focused On The Resource Sector

On this weeks show we focus a lot on the resource sector and even get an update from a Company that is in the process of completing a transformational acquisition. We start off with some insights on how the Fed has been forced to step into the repo market and what it could mean for future policy. Segments 2 through 4 then move to the resource sector with insights on Ecuador, the balance between copper and gold, and the Company update mentioned above.

Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. I really appreciate all the emails throughout the week. It was also a busy week for company interviews. You can find the links to those interviews below.

  • Segment 1 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and Founder of the Marc To Market blog kicks off the show with insights on how the repo market works with the Fed stepping in.
  • Segment 2 – Chris Temple updates us on the mining environment in Ecuador and some of the recent political decisions. For a copy of Chris’s Ecuador focused issue pleas email him at Chris@nationalinvestor.com or myself.
  • Segment 3 – Jesse Felder, Founder of The Felder Report shares his outlook for the precious metals into next year as well as a comment on copper that might surprise you.
  • Segment 4 – Calibre Mining (TSX.V:CXB) is in the process of closing a deal to acquire two mines from B2Gold and raise over $100 million, which $102.5mil has already been raised. Ryan King, VP Corporate Development updates us on the finer points on the deal.

Exclusive Company Interviews and Comments This Week

Marc Chandler
Chris Temple
Jesse Felder
Ryan King – Calibre Mining
View related posts on: , , , ,

  1. On September 28, 2019 at 5:37 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Thanks Cory & Big Al for another great weekend show, and there were actually a lot of great company overviews this week and other great daily editorials. Well done!

    To all the other KER contributors on the interviews and here on the forum – Cheers!

  2. On September 28, 2019 at 5:40 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up – (9.27.19) #AudioInterview

    “Eric Sprott discusses the impact that quarter end and options expiration is having on the gold price but looks forward to higher prices in the weeks ahead.”


    • On September 28, 2019 at 5:47 am,
      Excelsior says:

      $20 silver is coming soon; rally is long overdue, says analyst

      Kitco News – Thursday September 26, 2019 – Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

      “To me, we’re going to test that $19.65 high of December futures, and go higher. I think silver is just waiting to launch and I think it’s going to come sooner than we think,” Horwitz told Kitco News.


      • On September 28, 2019 at 5:49 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Northstar @Northst18363337

        “PM markets look set for a longer/deeper correction, but remember, in bull markets, surprises are more often to the upside. Higher prices will come #gold #silver #Dollar”


        • On September 28, 2019 at 5:51 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Gab @TraderGab

          “#Gold As long as 1484 is holding, there is still a possibility that Primary wave 4 is working on a descending triangle. IF it breaks below 1484, we’ll have to adjust for the possibility of a zig-zag. ”


        • On September 28, 2019 at 7:04 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Precious Metals – Gold down 1% and set for worst week in six months as Dollar climbs

          Brijesh Patel – September 27, 2019


        • On September 28, 2019 at 8:18 am,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Northstar has it correct; Mr. Horwitz’s “sooner” will be “later”.

          • On September 28, 2019 at 11:40 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Doc – when are you projecting the next move higher to be in Gold or Silver – more year end, or further out into Q1 of 2020?

            In specific to Bubba Horwitz’s Silver move above the recent peak at $19.65, when do you feel the setup for the next impulse leg higher above that to break above the $20 level is more likely?

          • On September 28, 2019 at 1:04 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Ex, Doc has mentioned falling into November and this is an obvious assumption if you look at the weekly and shorter term charts in isolation and ignore the character of the move that began in May. It’s similar to Doc calling for 1220 gold in December right after gold spent months taking back the 600 week MA (in the 1240s at the time). Aside from being wrong, the problem with that call is that Doc did not consider such a move to be damaging to the longer term prospects for gold.

            The bottom COULD very well come later as Doc and so many other think, but it would be inconsistent with the action so far and therefore not a very bullish development. So, based on the bullishness so far, Bubba is reading things the way someone with so much experience ought to, right or wrong (we’re talking odds here). Bubba is right that surprises are usually to the upside in a bull market and, in addition to the action since May, the big picture charts are supportive of his view as are some of the years in which the sector rallied right through the summer. Looking at the weekly gold miner index charts of ’03 and ’05 in particular, lows were achieved on Sept. 29 and Oct. 17, respectively.

            Finally, for Doc to suggest that Sprott needs a new TA guy is a little rich considering Doc’s record. Not even the best guys are close to always being right and missing a call here would hardly be reason for dismissal.


          • On September 28, 2019 at 1:06 pm,
            Matthew says:

            May, 20, 2019:
            “This year might not get exciting, actually Doc thinks it will be pretty boring for the metals…”

          • On September 28, 2019 at 1:11 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Matthew – I agree that Bubba is a sharp technician and yes, in a bull, surprises are more to the upside than downside.

            I’m actually surprised at how quickly the sentiment has turned against Gold, Silver, and the miners, on many forums, in the miners selling off hard the last 2 weeks, and this is cooling off the overbought chart indicators.

            I’m fine with a bottoming process in October or November or even year-end tax loss selling. It matters little to me, since most of my positions are above water and have had a great year, and the laggards will start playing catchup on the next move higher into 2020.

            I’m fine adding a little to my favorite positions some during the pullbacks, and waiting for the medium to longer term trend higher in the PMs to play out.


          • On September 28, 2019 at 1:25 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Before the correction began, I said that the coming correction would be measured in weeks, not months (2 or more), and I still believe that even though the last three days didn’t help me any.

            And at the last low?…
            On May 17, 2019 at 1:13 pm,
            Matthew says:
            GDX finished the week up 2.84% vs GLD and gained .78% today even though GLD lost .72%.
            That’s a good sign that lines up with gold bottoming in the days ahead (if it hasn’t already).

            You can find May 17th here:

          • On September 28, 2019 at 1:26 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Cheers, Ex 🍻

          • On September 28, 2019 at 1:35 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Cheers and weekend beers!!

          • On September 28, 2019 at 2:47 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Ex, to answer your question, I’ll respond with what I’ve been saying for months —I believe the real move begins at the end of the year or 2020. It’s pretty obvious in this last move in the stocks that the vast majority did not break out of their monthly BBs so it really was just another overdue move higher in an ongoing bear market for the stocks. The encouraging news is the breakout of gold out of its’ long U shaped move sideways. It appears now that the beginning of the right arm to the U has begun but as I’ve said many times in the past this well be a work in progress and not a sudden shot to the moon. As it plays out over Oct./Nov. I should have a better idea of when i think pricing takes out the high in August. My gut tells me it won’t be this year but possibly in the first quarter of 2020. Oct/Nov should be pretty instructive on that matter. By the way, thanks for all your great information about the various stocks you talk about. You probably don’t realize how it has helped me and others in positioning ourselves in some of these stocks.

          • On September 28, 2019 at 3:58 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for the response back Doc. Yes it will be interesting to see how things play out in Oct/Nov for the year-end set up, but I agree that 2020 looks very constructive for Gold & Silver heading much higher as the right side of the U continues to round up.

            Yes, for the last 5 years in a row the 1st quarter has seen nice moves higher in the PMs and miners, so no guarantees we’ll see the same thing, but so far the trend has been your friend.

            Thanks for kind words about the info shared reviewing miners. That is a bigger passion for me that the macro metals pricing anyway, and I enjoy the leverage that companies that explore, develop, or produce the Precious Metals have to the underlying commodity prices.

            Ever Upward!

    • On September 28, 2019 at 6:00 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Grant Beasley @GrantMBeasley

      “Eric Sprott fun in 1 tweet: Small caps outperform big caps. Credit Market Chaos. Negative Yields. Silver your next 10x. Silver hasn’t gotten going. His TA guy says gold/silver bottom in early October. Target almost $1800 gold & $21 to $23 silver.”


      • On September 28, 2019 at 8:24 am,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        I’ll go out on a limb and say that Eric needs to get a new TA guy. The bottom will not be in early October.

        • On September 28, 2019 at 11:36 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Hi Doc – Do you see the medium-term bottom being more towards year end during tax loss selling season then? Or are you looking out further than that?

          • On September 28, 2019 at 1:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Mature Topping Pattern In Place In Junior Gold Miners

            by @Goldfinger on 26 Sep 2019

            “I share this chart as food for thought and not as a prediction that GDXJ will fall to $30 in October. It could happen, but we could also get a rally to new highs (above $43) that could make this whole “topping pattern” morph into a continuation pattern.”


    • On September 28, 2019 at 11:45 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (USAS) (USA) Americas Gold and Silver: Eric Sprott Joint Venture a Natural Fit

      Investing News Network

      “President and CEO Darren Blasutti shares the highlights of the company’s 60/40 joint venture with mining financier Eric Sprott, which comes with an initial US$20 million funding commitment.”


      • On September 28, 2019 at 12:14 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Corporate Update from (USAS) (USA) Americas Gold & Silver

        Trevor Hall – September 25, 2019 – Mining Stock Daily


        • On September 29, 2019 at 6:07 am,
          Wolfster says:

          Found it interesting the number of times he mentioned Quebec considering they have no properties there that I’m aware of

          • On September 29, 2019 at 9:50 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Wolfster – that was interesting. In addition to Quebec, he brought up California and Oregon, where they don’t have properties either, but Darren was just mentioninging jurisdictions they thought were good. It does make me wonder if he has been looking at (BHS) Bayhorse Silver operating in Oregon.


            Darren Blasutti [00:16:34] – “So listen we got to in Idaho where all over Idaho we actually like parts of California. You know we may be a mining permit Grassy Mountain may be permitted in Oregon which you know 10 years ago we never would thought right. So. So I think the United States a great jurisdiction. There’s places like Quebec. And you know parts of Canada that are very good. Mexico is a great place to do mining but there’s other challenges there of course right. You got to get area specific and understand where you are. So we’ve got focus on I think our focus right now is Mexico Nevada Idaho and Quebec. So very good jurisdictions with good growth. And you know what. Trading at point three times NAV. You know what we could call that’s a discount but I’d rather buy something at point three times anybody in Nevada than by seven point or eight times in Brazil any day. “

          • On September 29, 2019 at 9:58 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here’s the info on the Grassy Mountain in Oregon that Darren specifically mentioned and it belongs to (PZG) Paramount Gold. It is interesting that their other Sleeper Gold project is in Nevada. It may be worth watching PZG as a takeover candidate by USAS.

            Gold mine in Oregon “worth building”

            Valentina Ruiz Leotaud | May 27, 2018


          • On September 29, 2019 at 10:01 am,
            Excelsior says:

            As for the line:

            “So we’ve got focus on I think our focus right now is Mexico Nevada Idaho and Quebec. So very good jurisdictions with good growth.”

            You raise a great point. Which Quebec project or company are they looking at?

            To your point, they don’t have any projects in Quebec at this point.

        • On September 29, 2019 at 1:35 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          (USAS) (USA) Americas Silver Announces 250% Increase in Gold Equivalent Reserves, Rebrands to Americas Gold And Silver, and Updates on Relief Canyon Construction

          September 5, 2019


    • On September 28, 2019 at 2:13 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos: We Don’t Need US$1,500 Gold to Profit

      Sep 23, 2019 – Investing News Network


      • On September 28, 2019 at 4:21 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Beta Hunt Delivers More High-Grade Gold

        > 1,750oz Gold Recovered from 274 kg of Rock

        Sept. 24, 2019 /CNW/ – “RNC Minerals (RNX) is pleased to announce that additional high-grade coarse gold has been recovered at its Beta Hunt Mine in Western Australia.”

        “An estimated 1,750 ounces of coarse gold has been recovered from 274 kg of rock. The discovery occurred on the 16 Level A Zone, 160 metres south and 25 metres below the Father’s Day Vein discovery and on the same level as the high-grade gold mined in June 2019”


  3. On September 28, 2019 at 6:09 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Gold price rally adds $1.8 billion to these family fortunes

    Bloomberg News | September 27, 2019


    • On September 28, 2019 at 6:12 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold gets another boost as US risks strengthen case for havens

      Bloomberg News | September 25, 2019

      “Gold steadied after posting its longest rally in three months as investors weighed growing political tensions in the U.S., which reinforced demand for havens. Palladium notched a fresh record.”

      “Gold is heading for a fifth monthly advance as the Federal Reserve and central banks globally cut interest rates to prop up economies hurt by the prolonged trade war. ”


      • On September 28, 2019 at 11:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Mickey Fulp: Gold’s Big Price Jump is Too High, Too Fast

        Sep 11, 2019 – Investing News Network

        “The gold price has made a strong move upward in the summer months, rising from below US$1,300 per ounce in May to over US$1,500 in August.”

        “The yellow metal has for the most part continued to hold above that level in September, and its activity has sparked optimism in the gold space. However, Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp believes market participants need to remain cautious. ”


        • On September 28, 2019 at 11:47 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Rob McEwen: Gold Can Go Much Higher than US$5,000

          Sep 12, 2019 – Investing News Network

          “Rob McEwen, chairman and chief owner of McEwen Mining, shares his thoughts on where gold is headed and how to get exposure to the metal.”


          • On September 28, 2019 at 12:28 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Jamie Keech: The Gold Price Rise is Real, and Stocks Will Catch Up

            Sep 24, 2019 – Investing News Network

            “The gold price has ticked up in 2019, particularly in recent months, but it hasn’t been the same story for all gold stocks, particularly early stage companies.”


          • On September 28, 2019 at 4:03 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Doug Groh: Gold Has Had a Big Move, Now it Needs to Stabilize

            Investing News Network – Sep 19, 2019


      • On September 28, 2019 at 12:40 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Matt Geiger – Gold and Silver Bull Market Still Has Lots of Room Left to Run

        PalisadeRadio on 26 Sep 2019 #AudioInterview


        • On September 29, 2019 at 10:30 am,
          Excelsior says:

          #Gold: The Unimpeachable Commodity investment
          Frank Holmes – U.S. Global Investors | September 29, 2019

          “I see gold as a solution to many of the issues I’ve laid out, whether it’s recessionary spillover from Germany, high debt levels or helicopter money.”

          “I’m not alone in thinking this. In a September report, the World Gold Council (WGC) calls the yellow metal “the most effective commodity investment,” adding that “allocations of 2 percent to 10 percent in a typical pension portfolio have provided better risk-adjusted returns than those with broad-based commodity allocations.”


          • On September 29, 2019 at 1:44 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Is This The Real Driver Of Gold’s Recent Weakness?


            Well known gold and silver analyst Andy Hoffman previously suggested the answer could be much simpler than we have been led to believe.

            There’s no reason… there’s not even a propaganda meme of why [gold has been dumped]… there isn’t even a such thing as negative news for precious metals anymore…

            The fact is, [like the last few years, when prices collapsed], China is closed for the week.

            One glance at the last few years gold price action suggests he may well be correct…


  4. On September 28, 2019 at 6:17 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (MKO) (MAKOF) Mako Mining Corp Infill Drilling at San Albino Expands High-Grade Zone, Highlighted by Intercept of 50.78 g/t Gold Over 5.1 Meters, Including 173.3 g/t Gold Over 1.0 Meter

    September 26, 2019

    Mako Mining Corp. (MKO) is pleased to report further positive results from the infill drilling program at its wholly-owned San Albino gold project located in Nueva Segovia, Nicaragua.

    To date, 5,072 m of infill grade-control drilling has been completed in 115 diamond drill holes, with assays reported for 39 of these holes.


    • On September 28, 2019 at 6:23 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (MKO) (MAKOF) Mako Mining Corp
      545.96 g/t Gold and 219.0 g/t Silver Sampled in Trench Outside Current Pit Limits at San Albino

      @newswire on 26 Aug 2019


      • On September 28, 2019 at 11:50 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Brent Cook: Exploration Will be the Next Big Gold Trend

        Sep 18, 2019 – Investing News Network

        “The new trend for the near term in the gold space will be exploration and discovery, according to Brent Cook of Exploration Insights.”


        • On September 28, 2019 at 11:56 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Hasn’t Brent been saying that for the last 20 years??

          Let’s get these exploration and discovery trends in motion already. So far we have had Kamiak Gold (taken over by Gold Corp), Reservoir Minerals (acquired by Nevsun) Great Bear (who will likely get taken over)….

          Shouldn’t there be dozens and dozens of discoveries with the thousand exploration companies mining the investors for cash to stick holes in the ground?

          Which company is next with the big discovery?

          • On September 28, 2019 at 12:00 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Silvercrest (SIL) should also be mentioned as a true discovery in the prior incarnation, and their present company.

            Having said that, where in the world are all the other new Greenfields exploration success stories after all these years and 100’s of Millions of dollars spent looking for new discoveries?

            Most of the great development stage companies were found years ago and have just been defining the limits of their projects, or the “new’ discoveries have been mostly around previous mines and previous known projects.

            It would be nice to see a few real bonanza grade discoveries in the sector that gets folks so interested that it finally brings in more generalist investors.

          • On September 28, 2019 at 12:28 pm,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            Let’s hope the next big discoveries come from Auryn, Irving, Miramont,EXK, AG,ETHOF,MUX,OCANF,PVG,USAS, NEM, and Novo.

          • On September 28, 2019 at 12:44 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bonzo Barzini – You just made an excellent point.

            Many investors forget that Producers can still go out and make significant new discoveries. It is easy to get fixated on the tiny Jr Explorers for a new discovery, but sometimes it is the big boys that find the needle in the haystack.

            My thoughts were more along the lines of new greenfields discoveries in untapped areas, but sometimes those are buried within larger mining companies project portfolios and when they go poking around, their experienced teams often do hit paydirt.

            Ever Upward!

          • On September 28, 2019 at 8:22 pm,
            Bonzo Barzini says:

            Yes, Ex, they say the best place to find a gold mine is next to a gold mine. And NEM and GOLD have millions of acres around their mines. And they will add tens of millions of oz of gold to their reserves when they are figured at higher gold prices. And NEM is the only gold miner in the S&P 500 and in the coming bull market the funds will have to buy NEM.

          • On September 29, 2019 at 10:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes the old adage of where to find a gold mine….. next to an existing gold mine is still very appropriate. With modern exploration methods using VTEM surveys and new science with geo chem analysis, and better logging and computer modeling tools, there are still plenty of untapped deposits in the shadow of known deposits or mines.

            Good point NEM being the only gold miner in the S&P 500 (but remember that Rob McEwen wants to change that and get MUX added as a key milestone). 🙂

          • On September 30, 2019 at 7:50 am,
            Ann says:

            Longer than 20 years

          • On September 30, 2019 at 11:54 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto ……on the get the >>>>>TRENDS IN MOTION ALREADY………

        • On September 28, 2019 at 12:03 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Jonathan Guy: Gold Juniors Still Risky, but Now More Disciplined

          Sep 23, 2019 – Investing News Network

          “The gold price has been on the rise in 2019, particularly in recent months, but does that mean there’s money available for juniors focused on the yellow metal? ”


          • On September 28, 2019 at 12:04 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Jeff Swinoga: Wait for It — More Gold M&A is Coming

            Sep 25, 2019 – Investing News Network

            “Gold market participants have been waiting for a wave of consolidation to hit the space since Barrick Gold and Randgold Resources announced plans to merge a year ago. ”


          • On September 28, 2019 at 4:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Adrian Day: We Haven’t Seen the End of Gold M&A

            Investing News Network – Sep 20, 2019

            “Mergers and acquisitions in the gold space are far from over, says Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management in this video.”


    • On September 28, 2019 at 6:24 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Market Report: Repo seizure and liquidity problems

      By Alasdair MacleodMarket – September 27, 2019


  5. On September 28, 2019 at 6:58 am,
    bonzo barzini says:

    Bridgette Bardot turns 85 today so celebrate! This must be a holiday in France.

  6. On September 28, 2019 at 8:52 am,
    larry says:

    I will Definitely listen again to your first guest regarding the liquidity game…This is the game to be aware of and to totally grasp…In effect this mechanism is the trigger for only a correction in equities verses a new bear…..

    Thank you to KER..such great informative shows, no doubt……

  7. On September 28, 2019 at 3:32 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    The Global Opportunity in Uranium Investing (w/ Adam Rodman)

    Real Vision Finance

    s uranium poised for another big bounce? Adam Rodman of Segra Capital Management returns to follow up on his tremendously popular Real Vision interview from late 2017, and to review the key drivers of this most unusual commodity. Rodman explains the big picture, then dives down into the nuances of both the supply and demand sides of the market. ”


    • On September 28, 2019 at 3:48 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Three Mile Island retired after 45 years
      23 September 2019 #Uranium

      “Three Mile Island (TMI) unit 1 has been shut down for economic reasons after over 45 years of generation. As the Pennsylvania plant closed, hundreds of people attended a rally to demand action by the state legislature and governor to prevent the premature retirement of the Beaver Valley nuclear plant in 2021.”

      “When nuclear plants shut down, our state loses a zero-emission source of electricity and diversity on the energy grid.”


      • On September 28, 2019 at 3:49 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Rebuilding America’s Domestic Uranium Industry

        Stephen Moore – Sep 24, 2019

        “In Western states such as Arizona, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming, Nebraska and Texas, the United States has massive domestic uranium resources and reserves. But incredibly, more than 90% of U.S. uranium requirements are now imported.”

        “A presidential memorandum issued in July ordered the formation of a Cabinet-level working group to find acceptable solutions to the U.S. uranium mining dilemma — what President Trump referred to as a “national security concern.”


        • On September 28, 2019 at 3:50 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          New Nuclear Countries Face Integrated Challenges
          19 September 2019 #Uranium

          “Rising pointed to the reference scenario of World Nuclear Association’s Nuclear Fuel Report, published earlier this month, according to which 11 countries are projected to start up #nuclear power plants in the next 20 years including newcomer countries UAE, Kenya, Poland, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Uzbekistan.
          “Compared with that – only one new country started up its first nuclear power plant in the last 20 years,” she said.


          • On September 28, 2019 at 3:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            SouthKorea, SaudiArabia to cooperate on SMART deployment

            20 September 2019 #Nuclear #Uranium

            “South Korea and Saudi Arabia have agreed to collaborate on the commercialisation of the Korean-designed SMART small modular reactor. Under the agreement, they will work together to license and construct the first such unit in Saudi Arabia.”


    • On September 28, 2019 at 3:52 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Brandon Munro: The Data Shows Us That #Uranium Has To Head Much Higher

      PalisadeRadio – (09/19/2019) #AudioInterview

      “Brandon discusses the improving tone of the uranium industry that he is seeing while attending the London World Nuclear Association Symposium.”

      0:40 – WNA Symposium Conference.
      1:50 – Trump and China
      3:30 – Investor misconceptions
      7:00 – $35-$40 Uranium could surprise
      9:00 – New types of reactors.
      13:30 – What will the bull market look like.
      21:30 – Nuclear Fuel Report


  8. On September 28, 2019 at 3:39 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    MJBizDaily Canada

    🆕 21 of 50 Canadian cannabis companies have fewer than 6 months of cash left when capex and cash flow burn are taken into account. Phased buildout plans could be delayed/scrapped if revenues continue to disappoint.

    Story by @matt_lamers


    • On September 28, 2019 at 3:42 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Canadian Cannabis firms burn through cash amid ‘unmitigated retail disaster’

      Published September 27, 2019 | By Matt Lamers

      “Cannabis producers in Canada with fewer than six months of cash on hand may have to rethink planned facility expansions if revenues continue to come in lower than expected, according to an analyst.”

      Lower-than-expected revenues are partly to blame.

      “A lot of them thought they’d have more production online. A lot of them didn’t factor in that maybe cannabis is harder to grow on an industrial scale, and we’ve seen several of the larger companies have massive crop failures,” McLeish said in an interview.

      The bungled rollout of physical retail stores in Canada’s largest provinces have taken a bite out of expected industrywide revenue.

      “The retail rollout in Canada has been an unmitigated disaster,” he said. “That is exacerbating a problem, where (companies) who do want to get their product out are having trouble, because the brick and mortar is not built out yet.”


      • On September 28, 2019 at 3:43 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        “When they go low, we go high….”

        Or “When our valuations go low, we’ll get high….” 😉

        • On September 28, 2019 at 3:45 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Like every speculative sector that has gone through a bubble like Rare Earths, Lithium, Cobalt, Biotech, Cryptos, and now Cannabis, eventually gravity sets in the few ligitimate companies survive and the rest of the Johnny come lately companies blow away like tumbleweeds into the dust bowl of history….

          • On September 28, 2019 at 4:49 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Ex, what do you think of WRN. They had some nice intercepts recently I plan on adding to my position on this pull back.

          • On September 29, 2019 at 2:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I’ve been following WRN from the sidelines for some time as I have some interest in other companies in the Yukon like AXU, MMG, and FWZ, so when there are newletter writers going up there on site visits they often stop by Western Copper and Gold on the same trip. I’ve read good reviews and haven’t heard many point out any glaring issues.

            Their Copper and Gold reserves are very healthy (which they need to be if a project is going to work in a more remote area like the Yukon), and it appears to be a well run company.

            Yes, I saw the recent drill hits with 55 g/t gold over 3 meters which is very solid, and gave their stock nice boost in the last few trading sessions. Also from a longer term perspective it looks like their chart bottomed at the end of last year, and is starting the slow climb higher.

            WRN looks like a good company and good chart set up to me, and it is one I’ve had on the short list as a developer that is going to make it’s run into production over the next 1-2 years, or get acquired by a larger Copper or Gold company to augment their pipelines.

            May it be a prosperous position for you, and I may join you in adding it to my portfolio when I divest a few other positions over time.

          • On September 29, 2019 at 3:11 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Doc – I just went over and checked out the WRN recent presentation and newsflow and hadn’t noticed their recent acquisition of the Cariboo Rose project (with the Ana zone as a primary target) which is in between their Casino project and adjacent to Goldcorp’s Coffee project (which used to belong to Kaminak). That introduces even more potential upside as a secondary deposit that could feed their leach pads and mill at Casino, and if it proves out will be a nice upside project for them to bring into the fold.

            After years of being in the boring “orphan phase” of a development project [they did their Feasibility study back in 2013 for goodness sakes], it looks like their next 2-3 years are going to be that “Golden Runway” phase of a developer, and are finally set on a path of going into production.

            Another thing of note is that the Gold, Copper, and Silver prices are finally back to the assumptions they made in their Feasibility Study in 2013, and so their NPV and NAV figures are finally congruent with the pricing backdrop in the market. I’m sure that this is not lost on investors or larger companies that have reviewed their project in the past when metals prices were below their assumptions. Basically, they are back in the money again.

            Overall very impressive reserves, a nice balance of Gold and Copper, a realistic plan for production, Goldcorp as neighbors, and a high likelihood of being taken over by one of the big boys.

          • On September 29, 2019 at 3:21 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I also just noticed on another map that Agnico Eagle and Kinross have lands adjacent to Western Copper and Gold on the other side, and they’d be the more likely suitors, since Goldcorp is going to be busy with Coffee for the forseeable future.

            Their projected IRR is 28% over 2.3 years which is good, but not great on a Gold project, but very good on a Copper project, so it balances out to a solid plan.

            It definitely moved up the batting order on my Copper watchlist after reviewing it a bit closer today, so thanks for bringing it up in discussion. Cheers!

          • On September 29, 2019 at 3:27 am,
            Excelsior says:

            2 last final considerations is that I notice Osisko Gold Royalties holds a 2.75% Net Smelter Royalty on their project which does eat into their margins, but on the plus side their Copper price assumptions are $2.55 and if Copper got up to $3 or north of that then it would be a large mulitplier effect. I don’t expect that in the near future with all the trade wars, but in 2-3 years when they go into production, I’d expect a higher Copper price so that is another kicker they’d have in that kind of environment.

      • On September 29, 2019 at 6:17 am,
        Wolfster says:

        That’s why I’m still a fan of the US MSO plays. The vaping issue has put a whole other spin on things. If I understand it right though it’s the black market products that are the issue here.

        • On September 29, 2019 at 9:40 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, I believe it is the small black market vaping products that are really to blame, not the concept of vaping itself. The products in question don’t take the correct measures to get contaminants out or they extract the desired compounds with butane instead of CO2. Of course, the media is ready to make mountain out of a molehill at any opportunity.

    • On September 29, 2019 at 11:30 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Electric-Car Dreams Could Fall a Nickel Short

      By Rhiannon Hoyle Sept. 29, 2019

      > Demand for a form of nickel needed in electric-vehicle batteries is starting to outpace supply

      “Global producers of electric cars have big ambitions and a bigger problem: Supplies of a key material are running short.”

      “Nickel sulfate is a brilliantly colored crystalline substance used in electric-vehicle batteries. The ore most commonly used to produce it is mined in only a handful of places—and they include some of the most politically or operationally challenging, such as Russia or Canada’s frozen Northeast.”


  9. On September 29, 2019 at 4:10 am,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Ex, thank you very much. I like the stock technically as well and have it at low cost. In my book, the odds of a takeover are pretty good.

    • On September 29, 2019 at 10:39 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed, and thank you for bringing it into discussion. A number of positives jumped out at me on the current setup compared to where they were 2-3 years ago, both technically and fundamentally.

  10. On September 29, 2019 at 7:50 am,
    bonzo b. says:

    Today we celebrate the 84th birthday of Jerry Lee Lewis! I never thought the Killer would make it to 84. His song says he is “39 and Holding.”

  11. On September 29, 2019 at 1:24 pm,
    b says:

    And If You’re Thinking Of Buying Gold, Or If You Already Own Gold
    Gold won’t save you.

    My forecast shows gold will likely go as low as $700 an ounce starting now thru to 2023…

    And if history’s anything to go by, it could go as low as $250 an ounce before this doomed yellow metal sees any kind of turn around.


    • On September 29, 2019 at 1:28 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      So he thinks Bitcoin is going to $32,000 but Gold is going to $250.


      • On September 29, 2019 at 1:30 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Google’s “Quantum Supremacy” To Render All Cryptocurrency & Military Secrets Breakable


        “Google’s announcement that it has achieved “quantum supremacy” with a 53-qubit quantum computer greases the skids for all cryptocurrency and military secrets protected by cryptography to be breakable in a stunning new development that will change the world.”

        “The 53-qubit quantum computer can break any 53-bit cryptography in seconds, meaning Bitcoin’s 256-bit encryption is vulnerable once Google scales its quantum computing to 256 qubits, something their own scientists say will be possible by 2022.”


        • On September 29, 2019 at 1:32 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Wall Street is just Getting Started with Bitcoin price Smash! Bitcoin miners at Risk.

          Sep 27, 2019 – Mr_Kristof


          • On September 30, 2019 at 12:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Bitcoins fall from $19,000 down to $3,000 would be like Gold having fell from $1900 to $300. Now Bitcoin bounced to $12000 and had pulled back to $7800. Again that would be like Gold having gone from $1900 to $300 up to $1200 and down to $780.

            It is far more volatile and far less proven than Gold at this point, and Central Banks are still buying huge quantities of Gold, so they see longer term value in the currency of last resort – Precious Metals.

        • On September 29, 2019 at 4:57 pm,
          David says:

          Quantum computer:
          Sounds like going to a cashless society and on-line banking/brokerage needs to be replaced by paper. Bring back those floor traders and land line phones. What did I do with my bank savings book.

      • On September 29, 2019 at 1:47 pm,
        Matthew says:

        Ex, that’s a Dent gold buy signal. I’d be nervous about gold if he thought it was going much higher.
        Btw, when it comes to economics, “Harvard trained” means “completely full of sh!t.”

        • On September 29, 2019 at 5:29 pm,
          Bonzo Barzini says:

          My favorite history prof graduated from Harvard before WWI. He said, “There’s a Harvard man on the wrong side of every question.” I think it is more likely gold will go to 25K and bitcoin to 250 than the other way. Pierre Lassonde said at the 2019 Denver Gold conference that gold would go at least to 5K and maybe to 25K.

          • On September 29, 2019 at 8:49 pm,
            Matthew says:

            That’s a wise professor; I can see why he was a favorite of yours.
            Of course I agree with you and Pierre.

          • On September 30, 2019 at 9:30 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ditto on Harvard trained……….

        • On September 29, 2019 at 11:27 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Haha! (a Dent gold buy signal). Agreed Matthew, it’s best that Harvard trained is still expecting lower lows, as gold has risen $500. Full to the rim…..

  12. On September 29, 2019 at 1:49 pm,
    Matthew says:
    • On September 29, 2019 at 8:55 pm,
      Matthew says:

      I’ve added a Schiff pitchfork to the chart above that shows resistance at about $18 for the coming week.

  13. On September 29, 2019 at 11:06 pm,
    Matthew says:
  14. On September 29, 2019 at 11:12 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Gold and silver each pierced their 50 day MAs for the first time in about 4 months.

  15. On September 29, 2019 at 11:58 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Inflation Warning: Gold, Silver – Ronald-Peter Stöferle

    Sep 24, 2019 – Arcadia Economics


  16. On September 30, 2019 at 8:35 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    FREAKING DEEP DIVE>>>>>>>>>>>>Gold off $30……..hello……silver looking good for another buy………

    • On September 30, 2019 at 8:53 am,
      Matthew says:

      The scariest declines happen in bull markets so this action is good. Slow, grinding moves lower keep investors hopeful while quick, deep moves scare them out of their positions.
      A low is probably close (a day or two away).

  17. On September 30, 2019 at 8:54 am,
    b says:

    Its always a good time to buy.

    Course if Dent and Armstrong are right………………

    That would mean the Russians, Chinese, CBs etc are wrong tho…..hmmm, its a tuff one to figure.

    • On September 30, 2019 at 9:06 am,
      Matthew says:

      Armstrong too? Is he calling for gold to collapse?

      • On September 30, 2019 at 9:20 am,
        b says:

        He figures its up and down depending on confidence in government.
        Gold is not what it was at one time, cant move it freely any more.

        Last interview of his I heard gold was going down, others he says gold to 5k.

        I was probly wrong to mention him in the same sentence as Dent.

        • On September 30, 2019 at 9:28 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Armstrong………likes gold coins……….so, he might be a two mined individual….. 🙂

        • On September 30, 2019 at 9:36 am,
          Matthew says:

          Thanks B.

  18. On September 30, 2019 at 9:05 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDX:SPY at support and has not taken out its low of three weeks ago…

  19. On September 30, 2019 at 9:19 am,
    Matthew says:

    GLD has reached an RSI reading below 40 for the first time since May.

  20. On September 30, 2019 at 9:38 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Here are some nice pictures of weeks to come….Gold week…..after gold weak….

    • On September 30, 2019 at 9:41 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Matthew, this might confirm your above comment……..

      • On September 30, 2019 at 9:44 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        As of today, China will be on vacation for its Golden Week National Holiday and this weakness appears to be traders front-running the traditional chaos that the rest of the world plays when China leaves the playing field.

        China will be back in business on October 9th, and that means the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which opened in 2015 to counter Western manipulation of precious metals, will likely help re-balance prices to where they were before this recent takedown.

        We could be wrong, but something tells us gold and silver prices won’t stay this low for much longer and that they could well see a complete turnaround when China reopens on October 9th.

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        • On September 30, 2019 at 9:49 am,
          Matthew says:

          Thanks Jerry. There are plenty of good reasons for this pullback and none of them should rattle us, at least not intellectually (emotionally, yes, since giving back gains does suck).

          • On September 30, 2019 at 10:11 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            ditto……..it does suck….but, we will be OK………..

  21. On September 30, 2019 at 9:51 am,
    Matthew says:

    SLV has perfectly retraced 50% of its move since May and finds itself at a good/important support zone…

  22. On September 30, 2019 at 9:55 am,
    Matthew says:
  23. On September 30, 2019 at 10:29 am,
    Charles says:

    Gap closed today on ISVLF.

  24. On September 30, 2019 at 11:19 am,
    Charles says:

    It is a good looking reversal if it sticks. I don’t see a whole lot of positive divergences on the daily from what I can see. The weekly looks a bit better, but also looks like it could backtest the lines you have drawn. I also have my eye on Brixton. Would like to buy more when the time is right.

    • On September 30, 2019 at 12:01 pm,
      Matthew says:

      One big positive divergence is Impact’s action today versus the rest of the sector. In the 12 years I’ve owned it, IPT has often foreshadowed things to come so I should have taken it more seriously when it topped in July and underperformed many peers on its way to that high.
      I bet IPT will outperform most of the rest when the next leg higher gets going.

      • On September 30, 2019 at 4:49 pm,
        Excelsior says:


  25. On September 30, 2019 at 12:04 pm,
    Charles says:

    Looking foward to IPT outperformance. Thanks as always for the charts and commentary.

    • On September 30, 2019 at 4:49 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Ditto !!

  26. On October 1, 2019 at 1:37 pm,
    Keith Barron says:

    Incident Description
    On September 15, 2019 an AS350 B3 Helicopter (HC-CKU) with a Pilot and Observer aboard struck cables
    across a valley which had been installed to support illegal mining activities. The cables are used by locals to
    transport materials to and from an illegal mine site. The cables are raised at night to carry out their activities
    and lowered during the day to avoid detection. The accident occurred at 06:15hrs as an early survey flight
    was planned due to forecasted high winds after 10:00hrs. Unfortunately, the cables had not yet been
    lowered by the locals after their night’s work. The cables were not visible from the air due to a lack of any
    markings or contrast with the surrounding vegetation. The helicopter struck the cables with its main rotor
    blades causing loss of control and impact with terrain killing both the Pilot and the onboard observer.
    Possible Contributing Factors
    ■ Illegal mining activities, potentially others unknown at this time.

  27. On October 1, 2019 at 1:38 pm,
    Keith Barron says:

    AS350 HC-CKU Fatal Wire Strike – 20kms North of Ibarra, Ecuador
    Date Description Risk level
    15 September
    Helicopter struck low slung material-handling cables
    causing it to lose control and impact terrain. Both
    occupants were fatally injured.

  28. On October 1, 2019 at 1:42 pm,
    Keith Barron says:

    Anybody wonder why certain persons in Ecuador bring constitutional challenges against legal mining yet say ZERO about illegal mining? Do ya think some of the crooks involved in illegal mining want to throw the legitimate concession holders out??