John Kaiser Exclusive – Thu 6 Feb, 2020

Comments on Investing in Palladium and What Sectors Have John’s Attention This Year

John Kaiser joins me this morning with initial comments on Palladium. We discuss why Palladium has run and what stocks John is watching. Next up is assessing the situation in China with the Coronavirus and how it could disrupt the overall global supply chain.

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Comments:
  1. On February 6, 2020 at 9:10 am,
    Matthew says:

    The silver stocks are bullishly leading the gold stocks and CDE is leading the silver stocks.
    Anyone buying lately?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p49458846310

    • On February 6, 2020 at 10:26 am,
      CaliJoe says:

      Ive been holding CDE and AG. But I’m more interested in oil right now.

      • On February 6, 2020 at 11:42 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I’ve got both CDE and AG as well. I just recently positioned back in CDE when it had the fishing line sell off, and it is already up in the green by 8%. Obviously I want to see a rise of 200%-500% from it though once the metals space gets popping.

    • On February 6, 2020 at 10:51 am,
      David says:

      Matthew:
      Impact is not getting any movement. Is this an optionality play and price of silver needs to be higher? I know you and Excelsior like this stock in up markets. Just wondering.

      • On February 6, 2020 at 11:09 am,
        Matthew says:

        It is an optionality play but is also a little out of sync with its peers (up 50% in the last two months while SILJ is up 6%). Like many, it does require higher silver for meaningful gains.

        • On February 6, 2020 at 11:13 am,
          David says:

          Thanks Matthew. Soon as I looked back at it, it was showing +6.98%. Maybe I should ask about more stocks.

          • On February 6, 2020 at 11:46 am,
            Matthew says:

            Ha ha, yes you should. Let me tell you about Brixton and Kootenay…

          • On February 6, 2020 at 12:03 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi David. Yes, Impact (IPT) is a highly torqued Silver stock that would benefit greatly from higher Silver prices, so there is an optionality factor since each $1 move makes such a huge difference to their margins on a percentage basis [compared to other more profitable miners where the $1 increase doesn’t move the needle as much]

            Having said that, I view the production on the smaller Jr Silver producers (like Impact, Santacruz Silver, Excellon, Avino etc…) as important, but feel their exploration upside gives them quite a bit of leverage as well. If IPT, SCZ, EXN, ASM makes it new discovery of significance it can really move the stock in the short term, and if it leads to a new resource or just a major expansion of the resource then it can be just as relevant in a rising metals price environment.

            This is also true for Developers that are mostly judged on the economics of their project, but if they make a meaningful new discovery it has that same affect of increasing reserves and the value of the insitu metal in the ground. This is precisely what happened with Alexco (AXU) when they discovered their new high-grade Flame & Moth and then Bermingham deposits, which completely rerated their valuation, and went as far as changing their mine plan and process of going back into production later this year.

          • On February 6, 2020 at 12:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Speaking of a developer expanding their resources further with the drill bit:

            (MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos Drilling Provides Further Confirmation of Significant Disseminated Mineralization at the Divisadero Discovery and Successful Completion of Initial Water Well Testing

            by @newsfile on 6 Feb 2020

            https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/minera-alamos-drilling-provides-further-confirmation

      • On February 6, 2020 at 11:11 am,
        Matthew says:

        Since Jan. 28, it is up 17% while SILJ is up less than 4%.

        • On February 6, 2020 at 11:12 am,
          CaliJoe says:

          CDE not looking all that bullish. It painted a reversal candle, we shall see how it ends the week.

          • On February 6, 2020 at 11:45 am,
            Matthew says:

            Yes, sentiment remains negative so strength is getting sold in a somewhat urgent manner in manner throughout the sector but the oscillators look perfect. Let’s see how the day ends, and more importantly, the week. You were right last time so isn’t it my turn?
            I do think we have a turn here but we need tomorrow to prove it.

          • On February 6, 2020 at 1:20 pm,
            Matthew says:

            CDE thoroughly tested the 200/233 day EMA and broke important support in the process while building a little H&S bottom to launch from. Now it has bullishly taken back the broken support and closed at its best level since Jan. 16…
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CDE&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p62709099390&a=715455483

          • On February 6, 2020 at 1:42 pm,
            CaliJoe says:

            Haha I’m loaded up with a couple of juniors so it would be nice you right this time.
            Btw, beautiful chart on CDE. We will see what tomorrow brings.

          • On February 7, 2020 at 11:35 am,
            Matthew says:

            It’s not looking good but HL is sure doing well!
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p85799775949

    • On February 6, 2020 at 11:11 am,
      CaliJoe says:

      CDE not looking all that bullish. It painted a reversal candle..we shall see how it ends the week.

    • On February 6, 2020 at 11:58 am,
      Fritz Bender says:

      Bought Radisson yesterday. So far went down today on decent-good drill results?

    • On February 6, 2020 at 2:34 pm,
      bonzo b. says:

      HL was up over 10% today. Hooray!

  2. On February 6, 2020 at 9:25 am,
    cfs says:

    EROS RESOURCES CORP.. PROVIDES AN UPDATE ON ITS BELL MOUNTAIN GOLD-SILVER PROJECT

    Eros Resources Corp. has provided an update on its progress on the Bell Mountain gold-silver property near Fallon, Nev. In the fourth quarter of 2018, Eros received notice that the Bell Mountain mining claims were no longer subject to a moratorium from the Department of the Navy (the “Navy”); the Company has been aggressively pursuing the permitting of Bell.

    (“NPV” @ 5% and internal rate of return (“IRR”) of $17.6 million and 41.4% respectively, along with a payback period of 1.7 years, using a USD $1,300/oz price of gold and a USD $17.50/oz price of silver. After tax NPV @ 5% and IRR of $9.3M and 24.7% respectively, with a payback period of 2.7 years. 4 year mine life, with total production of 60,056 ounces of gold and 408,498 ounces of silver, before expansion based on renewed exploration. Life of mine cash cost of $759 per produced ounce, net of by-product silver and including royalty payments totalling $2.56 million.

  3. On February 6, 2020 at 9:25 am,
    Charles says:

    I bought a little more AXU and USAS earlier this week. Seems like there is much more upside potential than downside risk at these levels. I have considered putting more into Kootenay Silver and Brixton, but have not pulled the trigger yet.

    • On February 6, 2020 at 9:36 am,
      Matthew says:

      I believe you’ll be happy with your buying very soon. Of course I’ve continued to support Brixton. 🙄🤦‍♂️😁

    • On February 6, 2020 at 11:46 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Good luck to you Charles. I have positions in all 4 of those (AXU, USAS, KTN, and BBB), and we’ll sink or sail together in this metals cycle.

    • On February 6, 2020 at 1:59 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Charles, you must have been reading my mind this week. I also purchased a “tad” of AXU and USAS.

  4. On February 6, 2020 at 9:38 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On February 6, 2020 at 12:17 pm,
      Charles says:

      Nice Chart Matthew. I got away for while and when I came back my whole screen was practically green. Is this a relief rally or the real McCoy? Time will tell. Good luck Ex, Matt, and the rest on the site investing in silver juniors.

      • On February 7, 2020 at 9:09 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Charles- right back atcha sir.

        Ever Upward!

  5. On February 6, 2020 at 9:41 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On February 6, 2020 at 2:12 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Hl may pullback a little tomorrow and possibly early next week. However, the weekly and monthly charts are smiling very favorably on it currently. A position of an interim pullback might be a positive.

  6. On February 6, 2020 at 10:41 am,
    Paul says:

    What happen to your big pick Scandium, lost my balls on that pick you been pushing for last couple years.

  7. On February 6, 2020 at 1:43 pm,
    Kevin Mclean says:

    Wow $BULL looks like a Palladium opportunity, Eric Sprott invested $1.5M, thoughts?

    “With the recent closing of a $4 million non-brokered financing, the planned exploration program is fully funded. The primary objective of the program is to expand the Company’s current NI 43-101 inferred resource of 523,000 ounces of Palladium equivalent (News Release dated July 3, 2019). The present resource is defined over 1.8 kilometres and drilled down dip (-45o) to 125 metres. The new program will test the full 3.0 km length, to a depth of 240 metres. The Company’s goal is to expand upon the inferred resource.”

    • On February 7, 2020 at 9:14 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I’ve been watching BULL, but don’t own it, since I’m in PGE, PTM, and JLP.L

      There is a fair bit of chatter about it and other Palladium stocks over at Ceo.ca, and their drilling looks to be going well. Sprott mentioned throwing money at the PGM miners 2 weeks back.

      Good luck in your investing.

  8. On February 6, 2020 at 2:04 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    GDX,GDXJ, and a lot of these PM stocks are falling into that new trading range I mentioned a few weeks ago. As we move forward, it looks more and more like this pause will be longer then we like. It could extend well into late spring. The odds are we don’t see a break higher until then. March may see a countertrend rally but should not break us out of the range. Just buy on this dip; I don’t believe you’ll regret it.

  9. On February 6, 2020 at 2:17 pm,
    CFS says:
  10. On February 6, 2020 at 5:21 pm,
    David says:

    Thanks guys. Great stuff again.