Jeff Christian from the CPM Group – Fri 7 Feb, 2020

An extended interview discussing the drivers in gold, silver, gold stocks, copper, and palladium

Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group joined me for an extended discussion what he sees driving a wide range of metals prices. We start with gold and silver then move to the base metals. This is more than just a price forecast but also a look at the financial system around the world.

Click here to visit the CPM Group website.

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Comments:
  1. On February 7, 2020 at 8:45 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:
    • On February 7, 2020 at 12:41 pm,
      David says:

      I understand the emoluments case was denied based on “standing”, which is procedural and not a ruling on substance. So, the Court did not rule on the emoluments issue. Trump making a false claim on the outcome.

      • On February 8, 2020 at 7:55 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        Bloomberg ……..better watchout………because he will have the same issue……!
        I think the issue, to be raised …….is wealth acquired BEFORE OFFICE….and the general practice of our so called govt officials to use their office and a Money making scheme , while serving the public good…..
        Clinton…….Billionaire…..broke before entering office…..negative wealth , immediately after leaving office….$135,000,000 trust fund.
        Obama……Multi Millionaire…….Wealth less than $2 million…….after office $400,000,000
        Pelosi……Scalped the public for $135,000,000….on a salary of $170,000.

  2. On February 7, 2020 at 8:47 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Fed….more on topic……….
    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-warns-asset-valuations-elevated-coronavirus-
    presents-new-risk-global-outlook

  3. On February 7, 2020 at 9:41 am,
    b says:

    Irving and silvercorp take hits today, lots of red yet again.
    Should gold roll over shares will have a huge sale.

    • On February 7, 2020 at 2:16 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Wow – I didn’t see anything in Silvercorp’s press release to warrant such a big sell down. Todays selling was a really high volume move and must have triggered sell stops on the way down. It’s odd considering they made money and increased many of their metrics.
      ______________________________________________________________

      (SVM) Silvercorp Reports Q3 Net Income of $6.3 Million, $0.04 per Share, and Provides Fiscal 2021 Production and Cost Guidance
      @nasdaq on 6 Feb 2020

      Ore mined up 1% to 262,586 tonnes compared to the prior year quarter (“Q3 Fiscal 2019”);

      Sold approximately 1.7 million ounces of silver, 18.8 million pounds of lead, and 8.4 million pounds of zinc, up 0%, 6% and 103%, respectively, compared to 1.7 million ounces of silver, 17.8 million pounds of lead, and 4.1 million pounds of zinc in the prior year quarter while gold sold was 700 ounces, down 36% compared to 1,100 ounces in the prior year quarter;

      Ended the quarter with inventories of 3,815 tonnes of silver-lead concentrate and 270 tonnes of zinc concentrate, down 9% and 54%, compared to 4,176 tonnes of silver-lead concentrate and 586 tonnes of zinc concentrate as at September 30, 2019;

      Revenue up 5% to $44.5 million compared to the prior year quarter;

      Gross profit margin of 42% compared to 46% in the prior year quarter;

      Net income attributable to equity shareholders of $6.3 million, or $0.04 per share, a decrease of $2.4 million compared to $8.7 million, or $0.05 per share in the prior year quarter;

      Cash flow from operations of $24.9 million, up 26% compared to $19.8 million in the prior year quarter;

      Cash cost per ounce of silver1, net of by-product credits, of negative $1.21, compared to negative $2.77 in the prior year quarter;

      All-in sustaining cost per ounce of silver1, net of by-product credits, of $7.21, compared to $6.53 in the prior year quarter;

      Paid $2.2 million in dividends to the Company’s shareholder;

      Invested $3.8 million in New Pacific Metals Corp. (“NUAG”) through its public offering to maintain the Company’s ownership interest at 28.9%; and,

      Strong balance sheet with $155.1 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, an increase of $19.9 million or 15% compared to $135.2 million as at September 30, 2019.

      https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/silvercorp-reports-q3-net-income-of-63-million-004

      • On February 7, 2020 at 3:02 pm,
        b says:

        I couldnt find anything to warrant the sell off.

        Im guessing, maybe some of the crew were quarantined.

        Maybe it was simply people decided China isnt a good spot to gamble right now.

      • On February 7, 2020 at 3:04 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        It’s up 7.85% in the aftermarket trading, so maybe value investors are realizing this sell-down was way overdone. It may be that Chinese buyers taking profits to cover their other positions that are crashing in their general stock markets.

        I guess it’s possible that the Coronavirus concerns could have played a part since they are operating in China, but they have the best margins of any Silver producer on the planet.

        This doesn’t concern me at all longer term as they are doing great on their production and operations, have a large stake in NUAG, and this looks more like a high-volume move hitting sellstops all the way down.

        I would expect it to take a few weeks to make a recovery, but next week I’ll be buying any more weakness (and was buying some in the afterhours markets as well), as overall the news was pretty solid other than their costs came up a little.

        There aren’t many Silver miners with Net Income these days, and with an AISC of $7.21 per ounce. Unlike most companies, they don’t need higher Silver prices as Silver is at $17.68, so that is over a $10 per ounce margin.

  4. On February 7, 2020 at 10:41 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Of all the usual silver plays discussed here Kootenay at least is holding up……but not the week I expected. Does set up for me being able to get some impact below .40 possibly

  5. On February 7, 2020 at 10:56 am,
    b says:

    ipt seems to get to/at least has been getting to about 44 cents then tanks for awhile now.
    the biggest recent drop was from about 45 to 30, since then its only been a few pennies.
    44 to 38 kinda.

    good for traders I suppose.

  6. On February 7, 2020 at 1:49 pm,
    Bill says:

    I’m out of most my positions on metals as poor performance on stocks compared to the metal: note::
    We’re keeping a close eye on gold and silver, as a material reversal may have already begun. Gold ETF’s are enjoying record inflows of cash, while central banks have been on a record buying spree. Yet despite global political shocks and corona virus fears, gold looks tired while there’s a 5-month non-confirmation in precious metals, as gold made a new high at the start of the year while silver has yet to exceed its high from early September of last year.

    • On February 7, 2020 at 1:58 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      Bill, I believe you’re going to be correct. I’m afraid we’re in for a long pause. But that’s a good thing since when the next major move comes, it should be significant.

      • On February 7, 2020 at 3:05 pm,
        b says:

        Long pause Doc, are you suggesting that maybe after the doldrums?

        Maybe things are the same as they have been for years, the best time to buy is the summer.

        • On February 8, 2020 at 9:20 am,
          Bill says:

          Im with ya Doc..yes I think the seasonal is in play…….and a very big move could ensue and hopefully im fully reloaded AND everyone else.

  7. On February 7, 2020 at 3:34 pm,
    doug says:

    I like Zeal Essays on Fridays.
    http://www.zealllc.com/essays.htm

  8. On February 7, 2020 at 4:38 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    Kirkland Lake is on the verge of falling out of bed severely.

  9. On February 8, 2020 at 10:25 am,
    Bill says:

    Doc yes looks terrible. On its way to $40??

  10. On February 8, 2020 at 10:28 am,
    Bill says:

    I agree:
    “We presume the dominant trend has turned long-term bearish unless we see new decisive all-time highs in the major indexes. There remains a massive long-term non-confirmation between the Dow Industrials and the Dow Transports, while the typically-leading Russell 2000 Small-Caps and the Dow Transports are trading below break-even for 2020. There’s near-record bullish sentiment, and too many other very bearish technical indicators to detail “

  11. On February 8, 2020 at 11:11 am,
    Matthew says:

    It looks like gold is in an abc correction within a larger ABC correction. I think 1530+/- is likely to hold and the 50 day MA support will be very close to that level by the time gold gets there.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p95039234080&a=719515489

  12. On February 8, 2020 at 1:20 pm,
    Bill says:

    Thanks Matthew