Chris Vermeulen - The Technical Traders – Tue 19 May, 2020

US Markets, Metals and Oil

Chris Vermeulen joins me to share his outlook and trading strategy for US markets, precious metals, and the oil price. When it comes to US markets the biggest question is – Do the US markets have another leg higher in them? After the pop on Monday there are some near term levels to watch.

Click here to visit The Technical Traders website and follow along with Chris’s trades.

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Comments:
  1. On May 19, 2020 at 1:09 pm,
    confused says:

    “Get Back into the Sector”???WTF!!@!

    • On May 19, 2020 at 6:59 pm,
      Josey Wales says:
    • On May 19, 2020 at 8:08 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Haha! I was thinking the same thing confused. “Get back into Silver” ??

      >> It was time to “get back into silver” when it crashed to the absurd level down in the $12’s in Mid-March, and when the miners were down 30-60%. That was the time to be buying when most were shaking in their boots in cash. I was pulling coins out of the couch cushions to throw everything I could spare at the PM miners in mid-March and could not understand why people were not buying with both hands as the selling was so extreme, unlike anything I can remember (which is the perfect time to average down in key positions, or start new ones and I did both).

      Now fast forward 2 months later and Silver broke up above $18, and most of the miners have been up high single digits or double digits yesterday and today, so I was lightening up a bit, in anticipation of a few days of rest. If we get a small lull I’ll add back the positions I trimmed, but I have about 75-85% of most positions in place still in case there are any upside surprises.

      • On May 19, 2020 at 8:21 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        It is hard to fathom not having been in the Silver or Gold miners aggressively the last 2 months as most stocks rocked back up 80-150% and it has been the most fun trading I’ve personally had since 2016.

        There were nice bumps higher and tradable rallies in early 2017, early 2018, early 2019, and the later half of 2019, but the upside action, volumes, and intensity coming out of the crash that occurred from late February to mid-March has been truly epic transformative in my portfolio. Since the last week of April my trading account has been at an all time high and growing, and some of these stocks have really had amazing runs already, and there have been tons of spots in late March or even early April to have picked to jump back in the mix even if traders missed the lows from the 13-18th in most names.

        In addition, all the volatility has also been a swing-traders delight, and there are a number of liquid stocks on the big boards that I’ve traded over a dozen times each in the last 2 months, and it has been an absolute blast…. and people are thinking of getting back in soon…. where have they been??

        Newflash, you just missed some of the easiest money and easiest swing trades of the year! 😮

  2. On May 19, 2020 at 1:20 pm,
    confused says:

    Silver was a play to get into 2 weeks ago….silver really broke out last Thursday?? Am I missing something? Crap. I wish I was a trader!

    • On May 19, 2020 at 8:26 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yeah that was good, but again, 2 months ago was the time to be getting in when Silver crashed down into the $12s (with a low at $11.64), and the miners were down by 30%-60%.

      The time to have gotten intense was then into the carnage. Since that time Silver has added back over $6 and the miners have more than doubled in many cases.

      http://schrts.co/zQUSEarb

  3. On May 19, 2020 at 1:51 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Silver peaked at an important resistance today but looks great:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=4&mn=9&dy=0&id=p47287456905&a=501194637

    • On May 19, 2020 at 1:53 pm,
      Matthew says:

      Overall, silver looks better now than it did before the crash:
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p55926135023&a=547788271

    • On May 19, 2020 at 1:56 pm,
      Marty says:

      I took 20% off the table in the miners.Just following The Plan

      • On May 19, 2020 at 2:58 pm,
        Matthew says:

        My miners finished up 14.37% today yet I sold a whopping 1.8% and already redeployed about half of the proceeds.

        • On May 19, 2020 at 9:42 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Kootenay and Impact were really on a roll today.

      • On May 19, 2020 at 7:47 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        A wise plan Marty. I did some trimming of a few breakout positions yesterday and today, about 15-25% in most. I want 85-75% of the positions in play just in case there are any upside surprises.

    • On May 19, 2020 at 2:32 pm,
      David says:

      I personally would like silver to go higher.

      • On May 19, 2020 at 2:53 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I believe it is going much higher much faster than most expect.

        • On May 19, 2020 at 3:02 pm,
          David says:

          I am going to sleep better… for one night anyway.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 4:38 pm,
            Matthew says:

            We will have a down day or two soon but a top of any significance is unlikely, in my opinion.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 7:50 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            If we get a few down days, I’ll be looking to reload the partial positions I’ve recently trimmed.

          • On May 20, 2020 at 6:27 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            Agreed! for me if any meaningful down long trend it will come with gold in the mid to high 1800 possibly even higher like matt suggested

      • On May 19, 2020 at 7:46 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        It is nice to see Silver with an $18 handle once again.

        Currently at $18.06

        https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

        • On May 19, 2020 at 7:49 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          David – I agree that it would be nice to see it even higher.

          First I’d like to see it eventually get up and take out the 2019 high of $19.75, and then ultimately take out the 2016 surge high of $21.23 to signal a new impulse leg is underway.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 11:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Keith Neumeyer: The Silver Breakout is Here

            Palisade Radio – May 20, 2020 #AudioInterview

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wf9TQjZ1z8

          • On May 20, 2020 at 5:53 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            “free money always translates into higher gold prices”……..Keith says.,,,,,and I think he is spot on….

          • On May 20, 2020 at 5:55 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            6.66 Trillion reasons why gold is going UP, UP, and UP…….

          • On May 20, 2020 at 7:03 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes sir OOTB. As long as central banker goons keep printing and minting mo money, then “real money” (Gold) will keep going up, up, up and away in response to their shenanigans.

  4. On May 19, 2020 at 1:54 pm,
    Marty says:

    I agree, only in the metal.How about 2 months ago

    • On May 19, 2020 at 7:48 pm,
      Buzz says:

      As for junior miner silver stocks: which is easier to say? Time to back up the truck, or I have already backed up the truck?

      • On May 19, 2020 at 7:51 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I backed the truck up in mid-March, so today I lightened the load a bit in the truck.

        If we see a few days pullback, I’ll fill the truck back up to the top.

      • On May 19, 2020 at 9:41 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Buzz – I responded back to you on yesterday’s blog that I do believe Aurcana has been a good one to have been in the last few months. They are quickly moving towards putting their RV mine into silver production. Exciting times!

  5. On May 19, 2020 at 8:53 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (NEE) (NHVCF) Northern Vertex Reports Third Fiscal Quarter 2020 Financial Results

    19 May 2020

    Kenneth Berry, President and CEO, states: “Our results in the quarter demonstrate the strength of our operations at the Moss Mine in Northwest Arizona. Net income of $7.5 million was driven by our solid earnings from mine operations, plus a non-cash gain on the accounting for our silver stream and existing warrants. In addition, the Company has attained many notable achievements including successful preparations to avoid the impacts of COVID-19, with no known or suspected cases of infection at the Moss Mine nor at its office in Vancouver; a resource update for Moss Mine; the Bureau of Land Management approval to expand the mining operations; and the expansion of the leach pad which was commissioned in March. The Company is well positioned to benefit from the current trend in rising gold prices.”

    https://www.northernvertex.com/news-releases/2020/northern-vertex-reports-third-fiscal-quarter-2020-financial-results/

  6. On May 20, 2020 at 2:25 am,
    Marty says:

    Excelsior, sold 1/2 my position( for a double @4.80) in SVM. LOTS OF OPINIONS ON CEO.CA on what’s going on and the price drop. What’s your take?

    • On May 20, 2020 at 5:55 am,
      Excelsior says:

      There are always lots of opinions on ceo.ca 😉

      While I would have preferred Silvercorp not have done their 2nd offer for Guyana Goldfields, and just let Gran Colombia have it in their 3-way rollup with GoldX, it is a quality asset and relatively speaking, it is still on the cheap compared to where it was trading a few years back, and considering Gold is at $1700.

      It is quite normal for they acquiring company to sell off during and acquisition, so that is normal. It doesn’t change the reality that they are still the lowest cost Silver producer on the planet or their 29% stake in NUAG New Pacific Metals, but it does diversify them into Gold, when I would have preferred to see them acquire a distressed Silver producer instead.

      Many Silver producers like Hecla, Couer, SSR mining, First Majestic, Americas Gold & Silver, Great Panther, and Excellon have also diversified into Gold in recent years, and I would have preferred seeing those companies stay more focused on Silver, but that has been the trend.

      • On May 20, 2020 at 6:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Speaking of New Pacific Metals – They did a nice capital raise bringing in Pan American Silver as another key stake holder.

        _____________________________________________

        (NUAG) New Pacific Metals Corp. Announces Bought Deal Financing (C$25 Million)

        19 May 2020

        Upon completion of the Concurrent Block Trade, Pan American will own, directly or indirectly, 14,724,068 common shares of New Pacific, representing an approximate 9.7% ownership interest in the Company, assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised.

        Dr. Mark Cruise, Chief Executive Officer of New Pacific said, “Pan American has been supportive of the Company and the Silver Sand project since inception. Pan American will continue to have representation on our Board of Directors and be a significant shareholder, demonstrating their continued commitment to the project. The concurrent capital infusion will enable the Company to continue to explore and advance our Silver Sand deposit in addition to focus on new targets within the emerging silver district and regionally.”

        Michael Steinmann, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pan American said, “Silver Sand is an exciting discovery and New Pacific has done excellent work advancing the project to the initial resource stage. This transaction presented a timely opportunity for Pan American to further strengthen our balance sheet by realizing gains on part of our investment in New Pacific, while maintaining a significant interest and commitment to the future of the project.”

        https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/new-pacific-metals-corp-announces-bought-deal-financing

        • On May 20, 2020 at 8:21 am,
          Wolfster says:

          Funny you should mention NUAG today. Just saw a clip on bnn this morning(yes paid advertising). Sounded interesting enough that I figured I’d take a look at them tonight.

          • On May 20, 2020 at 8:27 am,
            Excelsior says:

            They’ve done some solid exploration work and hit paydirt, but they are operating in Bolivia, which I’m undecided on at present, but it’s an emerging market risk to consider. The team at Silvercorp launched NUAG, which is why they have 29%. I’m not sure if that changes based on this new financing where Pan American Silver is coming in with a 9.7% stake. (?)

            Regardless that is 2 larger companies involved with this high torque, possibly high risk, but definitely high grade, high potential explorer and developer in Bolivia.

            If nothing else it’s quite an interesting story to follow, and I have exposure to it through my position in Silvercorp, so I hope they continue to have success.

          • On May 20, 2020 at 8:30 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Now you made me look… Ha!

            Here’s the NUAG Corporate Presentation. I haven’t checked in on them in a few months, so this will be a nice update.

            https://drive.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a288a65cf81e0ed653cd33b/t/5ebf5ef0186cda70e7947ebf/1589600056130/ppt_may_15_2020.pdf&wmode=opaque

          • On May 20, 2020 at 8:34 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Ah, so PAAS is just adding to some stake they already had in NUAG, taking it over 15%

            > Slices of the New Pacific Metals pie:

            Float = 47.2%
            Silvercorp = 28.9%
            Pan American Silver = 15.2%
            Management = 7%

          • On May 20, 2020 at 8:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Actually it’s grade is just good, but they are really wide intercepts so they found a ton of economic material and a substantial deposit. I didn’t realize they had defined something this large yet.

            Measured & Indicated: 35.4Mt @ 137 g/t Ag for 155.86Moz Ag (137g is fine for open pit, but nothing stellar, but 155 Million ounces is a very impressive deposit size)

            Also another 35 Million Inferred ounces : 9.84Mt @ 112 g/t Ag for 35.5Moz Ag

          • On May 20, 2020 at 8:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            So 190 Million ounces of Silver equivalent. No too shabby…. I can see why larger companies would be interested in a deposit of that size.

  7. On May 20, 2020 at 7:29 am,
    Excelsior says:

    $15M Investment Backed By Eric Sprott To Accelerate Resource Growth At PureGold Red Lake Mine (PGM) (LRTNF)

    by @nasdaq on 20 May 2020

    “PureGold has all the attributes I look for in a Company – location, grade, size and growth,” said Eric Sprott. “PureGold’s mine in Red Lake has over 7km of strike with known high grade shoots that have only been defined down to 1,200 metres compared to 2,500 metres in the neighbouring Red Lake mine complex. The ultra-high grade hits in the 8 zone remind me a lot of the HG Zone that built Goldcorp, as well as SMC at Macassa and the Swan Zone at Fosterville. These are the types of discoveries that have the potential to be company makers and tend to lead to a much higher production profile than originally given credit.”

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/15m-investment-backed-by-eric-sprott-to-accelerate

  8. On May 20, 2020 at 7:34 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    To change the subject for a moment it will be nice when people stop assessing houses as needing granite counter tops, kitchen islands, and stainless steel appliances. Just a personal belief. DT

    • On May 20, 2020 at 7:38 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      On the political front Nancy Pelosi say’s Trump is morbidly obese, but it’s okay for Nancy to look like Michael Jackson. Crazy world indeed! LOL! DT

    • On May 20, 2020 at 7:38 am,
      Excelsior says:

      DT, I saw some friends over the weekend that I hadn’t visited in 3 months due to the coronavirus-lockdowns, and they were knee deep in revenovating their kitchen and closing in their patio as an extension of the kitchen and dining room.

      The more they talked, debated, and then argued about which type of granite counter tops, or bar stools, copper sink fixtures, or decorative floor tiles, etc… that they wanted, then, the more I sipped on my craft beers. They got all worked up over this kitchen refurb, and I got happier and cheered them on. (haha!)

    • On May 20, 2020 at 8:16 am,
      Wolfster says:

      Bite your tongue DT. Some people’s livelihoods are based on those kitchen and bathroom renovations…..🤔

  9. On May 20, 2020 at 9:54 am,
    Matthew says:

    SLV is working on its 5th daily close outside of its Bollinger Bands and its 4th day in which all trading took place outside of them. That’s a great show of strength but is also very unusual. Combined with the nearly 79 RSI(14) reading, a short term high has to be very near.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p64285983202&a=754284629

    • On May 20, 2020 at 10:37 am,
      David says:

      I think concern is appropriate. They don’t stay outside the Bollinger bands from my limited knowledge.

  10. On May 20, 2020 at 12:57 pm,
    David says:

    Ex:
    I printed out pages 5&6 from the Southern Silver presentation and ended up picking up some Silver Bull. Never looked at them before. Mixed bag silver producer but most are. Hold 9 of those on the chart.

    • On May 20, 2020 at 6:14 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yeah I’ve looked at Silver Bull in the past, more so a Zinc miner with a nice Silver credit though. I don’t believe they are in production yet though, as they are still a developer, unless I missed some major news, (which is quite possible).

      • On May 20, 2020 at 6:17 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        So I just went to the Silver Bull website and don’t see anything about them having built out a mill nor are they trucking it anywhere, so I think they are still just doing definition drilling and getting their project read for development.

        Here was one of the drill results that shows that their real value is mostly in the Zinc & Lead more so than than in the Silver makeup, but they do of course have Silver and will report in Silver equivalent ounces.
        ______________________________________________

        Silver Bull Makes New Discovery and Intercepts 13.25 Meters of Massive Sulphide Grading 9.05% Zinc, 2.12% Lead and 16g/t Silver, Including 5.85 Meters Grading 11.93% Zinc, 2.83% Lead and 24g/t Silver in Coahuila, Mexico

        July 29, 2019

        http://silverbullresources.com/news/silver-bull-makes-new-discovery-and-intercepts-13.25-meters-of-massive-sulphide-grading-9.05-zinc-2.12-lead-and-16g-t-silver/

        • On May 20, 2020 at 6:21 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Silver Bull (SVB) also had a blockade issue last Sept by a cooperative of local miners called Sociedad Cooperativa de Exploración Minera Mineros Norteños, S.C.L.

          I was looking at again towards the end of last year, and that spooked me a bit at the time. Hopefully they’ve worked it all out now, but that group demands a royalty of 6% back to 2004 off operations, but the company has rightfully pointed out that they have not been in production so there was no production to get royalties off of.

    • On May 20, 2020 at 6:29 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      With regards to Southern Silver (SSV) they have a very large resource, with at least 1/3 in Silver, and the rest in base metals (Copper, Zinc, Lead). It is the 7th largest Silver development project, and 6th highest grade Silver equivalent project, behind companies like Silvercrest, Aurcana, Bear Creek, Almaden, Bayhorse. Silver Bull does have the 3rd largest project though, but 12th in relation to grade.

      (All of this was on page 6 of the Souther Silver corporate presentation)

      2019 Updated Mineral Resource Estimate (175g/t AgEq cut-off):

      • Indicated (134Moz AgEq at 375g/t AgEq): 37.5Moz Ag, 40Mlb Cu, 303Mlb Pb and 897Mlb Zn
      • Inferred (138Moz AgEq at 334g/t AgEq): 45.7Moz Ag, 76Mlb Cu, 253Mlb Pb, and 796Mlb Zn

      https://www.southernsilverexploration.com/site/assets/files/4002/ssv_corporate_presentation_may_2020.pdf

  11. On May 20, 2020 at 6:22 pm,
    David says:

    Not sure why I said producer. I meant mixed bag of resource. In any event they appear to have a lot of stuff amounting to silver equivalent but the silver grades aren’t Silvercrest.

    • On May 20, 2020 at 6:31 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yeah, as noted above they have the 3rd largest Silver development project on the planet which is quite notable, but the silver equivalent overall grade (all co-credits included) is around 12th highest. It still should be an excellent project, and if there is an increase in Zinc or Lead prices that will also really boost their economics in a big way.

      • On May 20, 2020 at 6:34 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I’d go so far as saying that if Zinc & Lead prices do move up, investors would be better off playing that move through Silver Bull, than through most of the “Zinc” mining companies, because it has a higher Silver component than most of those companies which we know will becoming more and more valuable.

        • On May 20, 2020 at 6:36 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Bob M. pointed that out to me a while back, and just wanted to give credit where credit it due.

    • On May 20, 2020 at 7:03 pm,
      David says:

      I found a report of some kind from Jan 2020. It had a short summary of the Law Suit and didn’t specify the Royalty but that they were asking 6% on back claims of a royalty and other claims. The lower court denied the suit for not being timely filed. The Appeals court upheld the procedural question of filing time. They have appealed again to the same court. If same decision of lack of timeliness, it could be denied and never consider the issues. In a previous press release, the company said they would work with the group to do something fair. Nothing after that I can find, but if procedurally denied, should go forward without further issue unless someone wants to come up with a new issue.

      • On May 20, 2020 at 9:45 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        That’s good information to know David, and thanks for doing some digging and unpacking what you found. Much appreciated!

  12. On May 20, 2020 at 11:49 pm,
    David says:

    More to the Silver Bull story. In their last quarterly report they indicated that the Appeals Court considered 3 additional factors but upheld their previous finding that the case was untimely filed. There is possibility of it now being challenged in Federal Court. The expectation is the prior court rulings will be upheld but the blockade has continued. This is creating financial stress and viability concerns. There lies the biggest issue.

  13. On May 21, 2020 at 12:12 am,
    David says:

    Silver Bull: Two filings of stock purchases: 1) Ibex Investors, 17,448,156 shares dated Jan 24, 2020 and then 2) Sprott Inc, 10,876,897 dated Feb 14,2020. Quarterly Report mentioned above was dated March 13. They have a buy in agreement with South 32 which was mentioned over a 3 year period but shows 4 year. Not sure if extended because of blockade and Covid or I read it wrong. Appears 4 year currently.

    • On May 21, 2020 at 2:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      That is a plus to have South 32 involved as they are big players in the base metals.

      • On May 21, 2020 at 5:58 am,
        David says:

        South 32 has an opt out clause. It is a 10 million initial drill and 90 mil buy in for 70 percent South 32 ownership. Many hurdles to cross during a Pandemic. I heard on news Mexico’s death rate has climbed to # 4.