Chris Vermeulen - The Technical Traders – Tue 14 Jul, 2020

Safe Haven Outlook – Bonds, Gold, and even Bitcoin

Chris Vermeulen wraps up today’s editorials by sharing his targets for bonds, gold, and Bitcoin. Bonds and gold are long accepted as safe haven assets however Bitcoin is on traders radars now as a possible safe haven now. Looking at the charts for each asset there are some big moves coming as trading ranges are tightening.

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Comments:
  1. On July 14, 2020 at 9:43 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Ray Dalio on the Economy, Pandemic, China’s Rise: Full Interview

    Bloomberg Markets and Finance – July 2, 2020 #VIDEO

    https://youtu.be/7WxfQ2zKXeA

  2. On July 14, 2020 at 9:47 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Central Banks Buy Another 40 Tons of Gold in May

    July 14, 2020 By SchiffGold

    “Central banks added a net of 39.8 tons of gold in May, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council. May purchases maintained the pace we’ve seen through the first four months of the year and was slightly above the four-month average of 35 tons.”

    https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/central-banks-buy-another-40-tons-of-gold-in-may/

    • On July 14, 2020 at 10:47 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Frank Holmes: We Will Easily see $2000 Gold in 2020

      Palisade Radio – July 14, 2020

      https://youtu.be/SnRzKMeiYbw

      • On July 15, 2020 at 12:08 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Look to buy gold below $1,800 and ride it to new highs – Blue Line Futures

        Jul 14, 2020 – Kitco News

        “Gold prices are holding critical support above $1,800 an ounce and although there is potential for prices to go higher, one market analyst is warning investors not to chase the market.”

        “In an interview with Kitco News, Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said that in the current environment, investors looking to get into the gold market need to be more discerning to find the right entry point.”

        https://youtu.be/tgCD5_0iwn0

        • On July 15, 2020 at 12:24 am,
          Excelsior says:

          There were some interesting comments on Silver from Phil at the end of that interview. I’m even more bullish than he is, but not nice to hear he sees it going higher, I agree that folks should be poised to buy the dips when they present themselves in the PMs moving forward.

        • On July 15, 2020 at 6:54 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          $2000 gold……is very logical……once it goes past the over head resistance…..any number is possible…..above the $1923 high……..JMO

          • On July 15, 2020 at 8:45 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed OOTB.

    • On July 15, 2020 at 6:57 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Central FAKE BANKS…….know the outcome…….gold going a lot higher…..
      more confirmation on a daily bases……JTHE LONG…. 🙂

      • On July 15, 2020 at 7:21 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        Ex,

        Thanks for the frank $2000 post by year end. Thanks for all you post as some of the things I use as contrarian with my investments. I know you don’t personally follow what they say but share what you see.

        Going back about a week or so ago I mentioned euphoria and all this gold to the moon talk with getting long in the tooth. Just a caution sign to all the viewers and my own opinion that it is 70% smelling like to many on board and average retailer jumping on.

        I continue to hold all positions and have not wavered, however with this frank Holmes talk, what I’m seeing with many talking gold lately and price action/ intermediate cycle move top in progress, I expect the pull back will be scary at least in my books. We are however many weeks if not a month or more away. We will see when we get there. Patience is a charm. Learned it long ago.

        $2000 will not be broken this year imho..
        2021 is more of a certainty

        • On July 15, 2020 at 7:41 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Good point……GLEN……..

          • On July 15, 2020 at 7:47 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Central planners of corruption…….do not want to see the old printing press going away anytime soon……more fun and games in the future…..
            They plan on stealing all the gold anyway….miners will be taken over, as part of the plan., they steal everything and have the sheeple do all the hard work…..History tells it all., nothing new under the sun….we are like a snowflake on a rushing river… 🙂

          • On July 15, 2020 at 7:50 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Here is a depressing note………..
            Check out what gold should really be in price….based on just the US printing press….
            $31,195…….
            https://www.usdebtclock.org/

        • On July 15, 2020 at 8:55 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks Glenfidish. Yes, I’m just posting a range of perspectives on markets and don’t fully endorse or subscribe to any of them, but feel we are more informed when we see what is trending from pundits and media, and usually there are good points embedded.

          With good ole’ Frank Holmes, it is a bullish thesis, and he is typically a gold bull, but he brings up a number of solid concepts inside the interview, so I also look past the headline (which he didn’t select – the Palisade guys selected), and get into the meat of the interview.

          I’m still sticking with what I stated over a month ago that I see Gold making it up to the mid to high $1800’s, have a mild (but not scary) corrective move, which will be aggressively bought, and that consolidation will provide the energy for Gold to make a run at the all time high of $1923 by year’s end, with my “not-secret” initial target of $1935.

          If Gold does have the juice to take out $1923 and blast above it, then this will generate far more bullish headlines than that interview with Frank Holmes, and this may bring in enough new generalist investors and large fund money to propel pricing through the $2000 round psychological level.

          As I’ve stated several times, whether it happens this year or in Q1 of next year really doesn’t matter that much to me, as Gold miners should be doing well in the $1700’s $1800’s, $1900’s, etc… and as a result, if the yellow metal takes its time into 2021 to make a more orderly run at higher numbers, it just gives the miners more time to digest the higher metals prices.

          Cheers!

          • On July 15, 2020 at 11:43 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            Ex,

            Fair enough mate!

            Do you expect and significant correction from the 1923 or 1935 level? I’m talking more than $150 scary correction.

          • On July 15, 2020 at 12:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Hey Glen. I answered in more detail down below, but I’m not looking for a scary correction, and don’t feel a $150 move down in Gold from here or higher would be that scary really. A move down to $1377.70 (the breakout level and 2016 high would be a “scary” correction, but it depends on one’s view of gold’s macro direction and confidence that it is still going much higher, which is what I believe).

          • On July 15, 2020 at 3:21 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            $1377…..would be a flash crash……

        • On July 15, 2020 at 9:01 am,
          Excelsior says:

          OOTB – Good reminder on the US Debt Clock. I used to have that saved as a favorite on my old computer, but when I swapped them out I forgot about it (but didn’t forget about the massive “on the books” debt of the US, or the massive “off the book” missing Trillions). Thanks!

        • On July 15, 2020 at 10:51 am,
          Matthew says:

          Glen, what’s the highest price you see for silver this year?

          • On July 15, 2020 at 11:41 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            It’s tricky matt,

            If gold as I expect is to go down and silver outperforms like you say, my “scary can become reality” with gold between $1580-$1620-$1640 200 day moving average target. In reverse if silver went on a massive run like some have predicted, than we could have silver flirting with all all time high. Call me nuts but it’s possible. Anything.. realistically speaking I don’t want to get to forward or ahead of myself. The gold/silver ration need to me imo at 30-32 and quite possibly this year or early next.

            What are your thoughts? Year end Matt

          • On July 15, 2020 at 12:22 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Hey Glen…..isn’t that 30-32 ratio, this year kind of aggressive……but who knows….
            of course if, gold is at $1600 approx….then that only puts silver at $53 approx…so, that might seem possible , early next yr.,,,,but, then that chart will look parabolic….LOL 🙂

          • On July 15, 2020 at 12:36 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            Jerry and Matt,

            Disregard my previous post as I’m out and have no numbers to look at and I’m free lancing lol.

            Let me rephrase..

            First Jerry to answer your question regarding cup and handle. Yes we need to form the handle which has not started yet imo, this is were many different. My target price will be the top of the flag pole or top of the handle which I’m turn will target the scary low or call it bottom of the handle. This should take 2 months give or “take”. Im looking for a minimum Retracement of the 200 day moving average.not a wizard but let’s $1600-$1620 in due time 2-4 weeks out. Put retracement has even a lower target of up to $1480 imo of course something Gary savage gave up on sometime ago. For me it lines up. It it will be quick, fast and explosive to those targets. I can’t predict if $1480 is hot without seeing the timing writhing the cycle length. I will have a better grasp then. Regardless this correction is need imo to get the commercials out of there positions, and refuel something we will definitely need to finally explode higher and break the $1923 all time high. This handle will finally provide the answers to many in here who keep saying volume is low or not trustworthy. It’s very clear to me.

            I know many of you will give me best and explanations as to why that won’t happen. I don’t expect things to go up in an arrow with refueling. This is a good thing in my books for the kings and the short term trading.

            Year end gold Matt would be possibly 1700-1800 I’m really taking a stab her little ore little less..

            This Jerry would put silver in the 35/45 area give or take. Ready for my spring/summer launch in 2001 to great heights and even bigger ones in 2022.

            Hope this helps

            My ratio was off Jerry I did not have numbers in front of me..I meant gold/silver have ratio date of 38-40

          • On July 15, 2020 at 12:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I agree with OOTB here. Even a Gold:Silver ratio of 38-40 seems really aggressive anytime soon, as does a price of $35-$45. Holy smokes!!

            Personally I’m just hoping Silver closes above the 2019 high of $19.75 today and then want to see if it has the energy to make it up to the 2016 high of $21.23. Even $35 seems pretty far into the future from here, and I’d be shocked to see that by year end or even the beginning of next year. Maybe the end of next year or the year thereafter. I’m ready to celebrate the moves in the Silver miners if the metals prices just get up above $22. (lol).

          • On July 15, 2020 at 12:48 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            Let me rephrase as my spelling was terrible lol..

            1. Gold upside target from here is between 1880 and 1923. We then form the top of the flagpole. This can take up to another 3 to 5 weeks possibly mid August 3 week of August.
            2.We then crash down to form the low of the handle which can take up to 1 to 2 months. The minimum low for gold on this pullback would be 200 day moving average which sets us up for a date with 1600 to 1620. This correction can go as low as 1480 in my opinion.
            3. This would take us to possibly October low and proceed up from there. I would expect the uptrend from those lows to be fast and rocky as well.
            4. Timing would put us Into spring/summer breakout to new all time highs 2021.

            Glen

          • On July 15, 2020 at 12:54 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Glen, you’re nuts! (You asked for it.) I expect silver to perform very well compared to gold but there will be no “massive run” if gold is correcting. I still think gold will make a new all-time high this year and it could happen within 5 weeks. It would have to top 2,100 this year to surprise me since I think the dollar is going to fall significantly.

            Here’s food for thought. Gold’s monthly RSI(14) was as overbought in late 2007 as it is now yet gold still added another 30% in the several months that followed.

            Silver looks so much better than gold now that it should help to keep gold moving along.
            I think silver will reach between 24 and 26.50 this year but would be very surprised if Michael Oliver’s 29-ish happens.

            As for the gold-silver ratio, I think we’ll be lucky to see the 60s…

            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24SILVER&p=M&yr=20&mn=9&dy=0&id=p93153531747&a=759975914

          • On July 15, 2020 at 12:55 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            Ex,

            I’m sure your going to read my rephrase. Let’s make it clear I would not be shocked if silver made it to $30 by year end. We all know silver has a lot of catching up to do. If gold is in the $1700-$1800 zone by year end than silver could easily be at $30 plus in my books. Lol is not needed ex it’s not a sausage race lol.

          • On July 15, 2020 at 1:04 pm,
            Glenfidish says:

            Matt I like nuts but Let’s just wait and see..

            Las I mentioned $30 silver is attainable to me by year end. I rephrase and said gold/silver ratio have a “date” with 38 I did not say when.

            I expect silver to outperform but I expect high volatility. I will be waiting both for $1935 and $2000 to be taken out this year. And if they don’t I would expect lemon gelatos from you and espresso from ex lol..

          • On July 15, 2020 at 1:08 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Here’s more food for thought. Gold is currently about 13% above its 50 week MA while the 2011 high happened at 32% above that MA and the 2010 high happened at 20%. For 2009 it was 28%; 2008 was 35%; 2006 was a huge 77%; Dec. 2003 was 18% and Feb. 2003 was 22%.

          • On July 15, 2020 at 1:11 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Glen, I hope you realize that you literally asked me to call you nuts. Ask and you shall receive. 😬
            🍻

          • On July 15, 2020 at 1:23 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Glenfidish, yeah I saw your edit and reframed prices in the second post. $30 is possible by year end, but just not a probable. I agree with Matthew here that $24-$26 seems much more reasonable, and along with a much higher Gold:Silver ratio.

            Never said it was a sausage race Glen. Relax. I was laughing out loud (lol) that my short term goals were simply for Silver to make it over last year’s peak of $19.75 today [which it did closing up to $19.83!!!] and then to see if it can make it up above the 2016 high of $21.23 on this move. $35 or $30 silver weren’t even in my game plan for the near future, as it is best to take things one step at a time. Cheers and we’ll see how it goes…

          • On July 15, 2020 at 2:32 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Thanks……everyone…Glen, Ex and Matt………….
            I have some thoughts…..but, I think most of them are very close to everyone’s above…
            Glen can always say, he was in the sauce before answering, ….have to have a day off once in awhile…… :).

    • On July 15, 2020 at 10:12 am,
      Excelsior says:

      John Reade @JReade_WGC · 9 hours ago Twitter:

      “Looking at monthly net #gold flows into physically backed ETFs, the increased proportion attracted by North American funds since the OTC-Comex dislocation in March is apparent.”

      https://twitter.com/JReade_WGC/status/1283302397574557698

  3. On July 14, 2020 at 9:49 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Bullish Silver Fundamentals: Investment Demand Up 10% in First Half of 2020

    July 13, 2020 By SchiffGold

    “The price of silver has surged along with gold over the last few weeks and has pushed above $19 an ounce. But the white metal continues to lag behind gold with the silver-gold ratio at over 94-1. This is a historically wide spread and it is telling us that silver remains way undervalued. At some point, you would expect that ratio to close, meaning silver has a long way to run up.”

    https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/bullish-silver-fundamentals-investment-demand-up-10-in-first-half-of-2020/

    • On July 15, 2020 at 6:52 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      ditto on…………. ” silver remains way undervalued.”

      • On July 15, 2020 at 9:18 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Silver has been trying once again today to break out and hold above last year’s high of $19.75 (and got up to $19.80 earlier but is a few ticks below it at $19.73)

        As stated on Monday, it would be technically very strong for Silver to close above last years peak, confirming it is in a new bullish impulse leg to higher highs.

        https://www.investing.com/commodities/silver

        • On July 15, 2020 at 9:24 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Every little bit …helps……just unbelievable it is so depressed……,but, not really,….knowing how corrupt the system is……

          • On July 15, 2020 at 9:31 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I just looked at a 5 yr. chart……crazy…….$20.60……four years ago , if, the economy had been so good…..just silver usage should have caused the number to be well past $21…

          • On July 15, 2020 at 10:02 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Trifecta of drivers supporting Silver

            Ole Hansen – Head of Commodity Strategy 07-15-2020

            “Gold and silver trade a tad higher today after spending the past week consolidating around $1800 and $19. Its raising the question whether they are getting ready to continue their journey higher? Despite the potential headwind from optimism over a coronavirus vaccine, the foundation for a move higher is there. Not least due to a dollar punching at major support, U.S.-China tensions on the rise and real yields moving deeper into negative territory.”

            https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/commodities/precious-metal-update-15072020

  4. On July 15, 2020 at 6:04 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    There has been a lot of insider selling (not sure why?) in Triumph Gold. I just thought I would pass this along. DT
    https://www.canadianinsider.com/company?ticker=TIG

    • On July 15, 2020 at 8:09 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Thanks DT…………always good info….when the insiders are selling…..

      • On July 15, 2020 at 8:10 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Selling was Palisade global investments.

        • On July 15, 2020 at 9:04 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, and Palisade is more a promotional company that gets shares as part of the deal, and then liquidate them at their discretion, so it isn’t the same thing as if management was selling like that. From what some are saying they crossed out a lot of those shares with another larger buyer, so those shares are going from weak hands to strong hands with a longer term investor.

          • On July 15, 2020 at 1:17 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I nibbled at a bit more TIG today adding to the position, now that Palisade sold that large cross sale to stronger hands. Added a bit more PRG as well now that Strategic Metals is done selling their stake down to under 19% for reporting reasons, and those shares got crossed into stronger hands.

  5. On July 15, 2020 at 9:36 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    “I believe that they will attempt to have a managed retreat. That is, they know they need inflation and a higher gold price. They just don’t want it to happen too quickly or in a disorderly fashion, because if that occurs, Gresham’s Law will kick in and the dollar will fail.
    FROM……
    Lawrence Lepard: Fed, Treasury are now ‘sort of’ on gold’s side

    Submitted by cpowell on 04:24PM ET Wednesday, July 15, 2020. Section: Daily Dispatches
    12:27p Wednesday, July 15, 2020

    Equity Management Associates Managing Partner Lawrence Lepard’s second-quarter report for the firm’s gold fund

    • On July 15, 2020 at 9:38 am,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      FURTHER…….
      But the report may be most interesting for its speculation that the U.S. government’s Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are attempting a controlled retreat with gold and now are “sort of” on the side of gold investors.

      • On July 15, 2020 at 9:40 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        “So as investors in gold and gold mining equities, I believe we now have the government on our side — sort of. We have to be prepared for them to take actions to attack gold if its price begins to accelerate too dramatically.”…………FROM THE ARTICLE….

        • On July 15, 2020 at 11:02 am,
          Glenfidish says:

          Ex,

          Just so we are clear, the current time is 2:00 pm toronto time. 2 hours till market close. Gold trading at about $1814 futures. “If” we correct from here down does that qualify your mild pull back before heading to 1923 all time high and your more “ not so secret” 1935 target?

          If not then I reckon the mild move down comes between $1850-$1900?

          If so and just so we all understand, when your target of 1935 or 1923 is met, are you expecting a more “ significant” or scary pull back of $150 or more?

          Thanks for the response

          Cheers back 🙂

          • On July 15, 2020 at 11:05 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Glen……..any good cup and handle, will not have a significant pull back….if, the trend is correct….the cup is almost complete….the handle needs to be formed….
            but, what the heck do I know….I just read alot……LOL…..

          • On July 15, 2020 at 11:26 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hey Glen – If we get a pullback from here at $1814 to $1780, then it would be a reasonable pullback, especially since over this week there hasn’t been as much volume and excitement in the Gold miners and some feel the correction in time has already started.

            I’m not expecting a bad correction in Gold now or even later, but could see the miners getting hit a bit harder after Gold confirms a short-term peak. Like you, I’d rather see Gold correction from higher levels in the mid to high $1800’s as I’ve repeatedly mentions – which coincides with your $1850-$1900 range just fine.

            I haven’t changes what I’ve said a half dozen times now that l’ll be looking for a 23.6% or 38.2% Fib retracement of the move from $1671 to where Gold puts in the next peak and then starts to pullback.

            After that corrective move, and building a support to base off of, then I believe Gold would build the energy to next make a move at the all time high of $1923, with an initial target of $1935.

            As mentioned previously, taking out the all the time high may bring in a wave of new capital as that big sector news breaks. That new wave of capital and investors may provide Gold enough juice to make it to and through $2000. After that move, then a more meaningful correction could develop, and sure a pullback of $100 or $150 is possible, but I’d hardly call that scary.

          • On July 15, 2020 at 11:28 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I think it is DIFFERENT this time…………..I can smell it in the air…….

          • On July 15, 2020 at 4:58 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Glen………thanks for taking the time to answer …….appreciate……

  6. On July 15, 2020 at 10:54 am,
    Excelsior says:

    SF Online – Session 01 – (MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos Inc., Doug Ramshaw

    Soar Financial – July 15, 2020 #VIDEO

    https://youtu.be/O388MrUAcUE

  7. On July 15, 2020 at 11:12 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Hey EX………did you see my article on Asheville ….council approves reparations….will not post it here…..because this the metal’s section… 🙂

    • On July 15, 2020 at 11:33 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I’ll go check it out OOTB. That is crazy, but not surprising in these wild times.