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Gold’s correction continues but there are reasons to be optimistic for a rebound

Cory
February 17, 2021

Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me for a close look at gold’s correction and current test of the November lows. We discuss sentiment levels for gold vs the US markets. As well as the price action to note over the rest of this week around the key $1,770 level.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

Discussion
97 Comments
    Feb 17, 2021 17:44 PM

    The November bottom was at $1767.20 and is the line in the sand that needs to #HoldTheLine, or else gold will effectively confirm a bearish impulse leg down to a new lower low. It would be ideal for the sector if that didn’t play out.

    Today’s move down to $1768.55 is a little more than a buck above that November low, but well within range to consider it a double bottom, if prices were to hold around these levels, and then move up from here.

    We’ll have to watch the bulls to see if they have the stones to come in and buy here to support this level, because if it breaks, then that would be much more bearish, than if we get the W shaped double bottom pattern here from these levels.

    We’ll see how it goes…

    https://schrts.co/GCVbjKpP

      Feb 17, 2021 17:48 PM

      Currently Gold has bounced off that $1768 level this morning and has moved back up to $1773, so it would be good to consolidate here, and then have Gold put in a sizeable bounce to get out of this danger zone…

      https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold

        Feb 18, 2021 18:11 AM

        Gold is bouncing a little in overseas trading, currently up to $1785. It’s not out of the danger zone yet, and it may just be a counter-trend rally, but it’s a good first step if we are going to see the W-shaped double-bottom thesis play out.

      Feb 18, 2021 18:24 AM

      I did my bit. Added a few dollars to the Fund with these top-ten holdings.
      RBF1038 Canada https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GOLD,NEM,KL,AEM,KNT.to,OLA.TO,BTG,AGI,EDV.TO,WPM|B|B14|-1

        Feb 18, 2021 18:21 AM

        Thanks visitor. That’s a solid list of quality Gold companies, and the fund should do quite well moving into the next leg of the bull market.

    Feb 17, 2021 17:51 PM

    In other news…. Bitcoin broke above $50k and is currently at $52,321. What an epic rally!

    https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin

      Feb 17, 2021 17:58 PM

      Monetary system…….is about to collapse…..by 2024……..
      I posted over in the political section…..Africa central bank on collapse…
      the system is burning down.

      Feb 17, 2021 17:04 PM

      I unloaded 3 of my 4 Crypto Miners on Friday and yesterday on Tuesday, and at this point just have my Cypherpunk Holdings (HODL) position. Ironically, based on their symbol, I did HODL it the longest of that group. 🙂

      At this point the crypto miners have launched up into the stratosphere in valuations, so I’ll likely exit my last position this week.

      Check out this Performance Chart of the Crypto Miners over the last 200 days.
      >> This group of companies is up between 800% – 9,0000% in that period. Gadzooks!!

      https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?RIOT,HIVE.V,HUT.TO,ARB.L,VYGR.CA,HODL.CA,BIGG.CA,BITF.V&n=200&O=011000

        Feb 17, 2021 17:08 PM

        I couldn’t include Coin Citadel CCTL on the crypto miner chart above without it spiking the punchbowl too much compared to the rest of the group, but check out this chart action over the last few days. Nutty!!

        https://schrts.co/RxIvqjEu

          Feb 17, 2021 17:27 PM

          I do not think the block chain is going away,…any time soon…..
          Other parts of the world , are going around their central banks, and trading the cyptos,
          So, I do not think we are at the end of this madness……JMO

            Feb 17, 2021 17:36 PM

            The herd…..is just starting, and no one wants left out………
            7 billion people, and about, 6 billion are dirt poor…..humm

            Feb 17, 2021 17:38 PM

            Yeah, I agree OOTB that the blockchain technology is here to stay, and that is one of the big innovations to come from this crypto craze the last decade.

            My comments were more around the insanely high valuations that the crypto miners (producing Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.. for the network transactions) have reached recently.

            They may keep running even higher, but some of them are already up 2000% or 5000% or 9000% just in the last 6-9 months, so it is unclear how much higher things can run before a correction.

            BDC
            Feb 17, 2021 17:06 PM

            David White is a sharp cookie. From the other thread:
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpobzHHmP8w

            Feb 17, 2021 17:56 PM

            Ex…..I agree with your comment,….around the insanity……We must all be insane., lol

    Feb 17, 2021 17:59 PM

    If gold gets a rebound it probably won’t be impressive. The longer term charts are showing continual downward slow unremitting pressure. Bought a smidgen of SAND again today. Some of the gold charts look “horrible” and are preparing for another crunch. Be patient; the bargains are coming.

      Feb 17, 2021 17:29 PM

      Doc, I bought my SAND@3 years ago, so today I bought more ESKYF@1.88 even though I first bought it at 50 cents.

    b
    Feb 17, 2021 17:37 PM

    800-9000% , gold tanks, people will see that.
    I just cant see too may people jumping on the gold train.

    My guess is the herd doesnt begin to get involved until the crypto bubble bursts.
    If it does of course, it may not burst and bitcoin goes to 400k.

      Feb 17, 2021 17:47 PM

      Gold will go to thousands of dollars before the herd buys any at all. Joe Sixpack had nothing to do with its 8-fold rise since 2000 and he will remain absent for 90% of the next 8-fold rise.
      Intermediate corrections always suck and this one has not been special. Gold has only retraced half of its move from 1450 in March to almost 2100 in August.

    Feb 17, 2021 17:38 PM

    If you compare the March 2020 plunge in the gold price and gdx price to the current fall, we have farther to go. I don’t believe we get a sudden catharsis this time but a slow tortured move down that ends in a whimper. The rebound this time will probably be a slow consolidation and move upward.

      Feb 17, 2021 17:51 PM

      Doc, do you really expect this move down in the metals to be as severe as last March during the pandemic flash crash?

      I’m not expecting that kind of a move down personally, but slow torture sounds about right for what we PM investors are used to.

      I’m still keeping the door open for a bounce here, as a W-shaped double bottom, but will concede things look pretty ugly for gold lately.

        Feb 17, 2021 17:37 PM

        Ex, I absolutely do not expect gold to move down as severely as March 2020—my worst case scenario is a downside to between 1600 and 1700. I think we see the worse of it done by about mid March to late March.

          Feb 17, 2021 17:40 PM

          Thanks Doc for the reply back with what you are looking at for downside. It’s good that you don’t expect any further downdrafts to be as extreme as March. That had me worried for a moment. At this point, gold has been correcting for 7 months from the August high at $2089, so hopefully there isn’t too much more downside left.

    Feb 17, 2021 17:15 PM

    Gold will do what it will do. Actually, big deal………up down and around. I wouldn’t trade places with millions of Texans who are freezing. No power for 3 days, no firewood, no municipal water which means no toilets and with another storm headed their way. When the power and water come back on, the real problem will be several hundred thousands of houses with broken water pipes. Nothing worse than that IMO. One comment I saw says it all: “Texas is on it’s way to 3rd world status. Like I said, if gold goes another $100 down, I ‘m still better off than those poor souls.

      Feb 17, 2021 17:33 PM

      here in heavenly Houston I still have water and my gas stove works, but we have rolling blackouts of electricity. And my AT&T phone line is sagging and does not work, When I have power my Comcast phone and iMac work. When the power goes out I strum my old guitar and sing. R.I.P. Rush

    Feb 17, 2021 17:20 PM

    Hey Ex, thanks for the heads up on grid metals, I’ll take a double any day. LOL! DT

      Feb 17, 2021 17:44 PM

      Yeah for sure DT. I didn’t sell all my Grid Metals, and only trimmed back about 1/3 of the position today. I had sold my entire New Age Metals position last week though.

      These PGM/Nickel plays have really been running hot lately.

      I had big runs in Jubilee Platinum, Group Ten Metals, Generation Mining, and Platinum Group Metals over the last 3-6 months as well. Others I follow, but don’t own, like Canada Nickel or Sylvania Platinum have also really run higher.

        Feb 17, 2021 17:15 PM

        The first bounce we get is going to be what is called “ A suckers Rally”.. Don’t get sucked in. I’ve been On record Repeatedly telling you what is happening including price action and I’m amazed at how many people still don’t get it or see it. I don’t know if Jordan’s listening to me but he starting to sound like me from his previous post and I got to see Jordan you’re getting it now. You were hesitant and reluctant and didn’t want to commit last time around but I’ve been preaching and saying the same thing over and over we are going to undoubtedly break the November low like it or not it’s coming.

        My pattern has us rebounding soon if not tonight or tomorrow I like I said the first rebound we have if you were a short term player sell.. The way the ducks are lining up I’d like to see a bounce while a one day bounce followed by a Friday lower low close. What I mean about a lower lobe closes not the November low close today’s close.

        Then we are going to see the Monday smash overnight and I will share with you what Jordan said which is the most important thing of all things it will break the November low and it’s going to be a bear trap like I said I’ve got to target and they don’t have to be specific but close to and I have three specific minors I’m looking at to unload my 8% remaining.

        When you really think about things everybody is saying or speaking to the right tune except at the November low will not be broken it will. What Matthew said about diverging is absolutely 100% correct what exit about how we can possibly go from here as he doesn’t see it lasting that long he is correct. As Jordan said it will be a bear market break or trap 100%.

        What Bonzo sad about $100 give or take bang on. What doc said about getting better prices hundred percent

        And what I’ve been saying all this time the November low will be broken 100%

        The only thing I disagree with doc is the duration of time I’ve said we can have a February monthly low March or April I am leaning on 90% low by next week which means the monthly rent candle for February will be red but I expect the final two or three days for it to move up and create a nice long Red wick!

        Sorry again for spelling buy I can’t tell you enough to save powder it’s coming and give me a holla if you like what I post..

        As always all the best

        Glen

          Ann
          Feb 17, 2021 17:09 PM

          Hey Glen..Holla..lol Yes..keep them coming..And to everyone else.. love reading all of your views.Thankyou.

          Feb 18, 2021 18:56 AM

          🙂 Holla TWO…..

    Feb 17, 2021 17:22 PM

    I think Jordan nailed it and goes hand in hand with what Doc is saying – rates continue to rise and reach 1.5% with gold touching 1650ish – Market corrects 8-10% with some like Apple and Facebook and Tesla down 20-30%. Fed panics and institutes yield curve control which sends gold up to new all time highs. GDX grinds 10-15% lower until gold reverses and then likely doubles.

    Feb 17, 2021 17:30 PM

    I doubt gold gets a meaningful rebound any time soon. The weekly chart has been in bear territory for a while, and it will continue.
    The bright side of precious metals is silver. It got back in bull territory a few weeks back, and it looks to continue upward.
    There was a big sea change in the silver and gold charts 8 weeks ago. My bullish bets are on silver. Gold does not look good.

      Feb 17, 2021 17:09 PM

      Gold going higher……….Chartster, is always wrong on gold…. lol. … 🙂
      just kidding, but, your track record, is not looking to good…. lol…. 🙂
      I need to get that in before Matthew sees it……….lol…… 🙂

        Feb 17, 2021 17:57 PM

        My trading account says my track record is good.
        Watch gold go down and silver go up.

    BDC
    Feb 17, 2021 17:40 PM

    The Key now is Platinum. Arousal of its old kinship with Gold would light the fire. (Could industry be retooling for re-replacement of Ponzi priced Palladium?) Latest: https://ibb.co/ZmX3T7J

      Feb 18, 2021 18:02 AM

      I thought they should have retooled last yr……
      Hard to buy platinum phyz……and has been for a number of years.

    Feb 17, 2021 17:52 PM

    Hi BDC….Short Paladium…long Platium…imo

      Feb 17, 2021 17:58 PM

      I agree……….platinum low, the chinese like ,on the other hand …. do electric cars have mufflers…lol……

    Feb 17, 2021 17:26 PM

    The gold/silver ratio may drop even farther not so much due to silver strength as due to gold weakness.

      Feb 17, 2021 17:17 PM

      Silver holding up or even rising while gold falls is no small thing since it usually falls more than gold when gold falls. The norm is simply for silver to amplify gold’s moves, both up and down, which is why the GSR usually falls when both metals are rising.
      The outperformance we’ve seen in silver and the silver miners since September is very unusual for such a correction and almost certainly very bullish.
      Bob Hoye has always shorted the silver miners when the gold sector corrects because of the downside leverage that they provide so he must have had quite a surprise this time.

      SILJ is up 22% versus GDX since the sector topped even the the correction is still going. If that has ever happened before, it was probably in the late 1970s. The message: the market wants the best “optionality”/leverage to gold that it can find and demand for it has even overwhelmed the heavy supply that comes with a correction.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41632553345&a=902766304

    Feb 17, 2021 17:34 PM

    Hey doc,

    100% November low is a far long conclusion.. The monthly is telling you that. My precise target for the low won’t be shared this time around but I will say your bang on with your in between numbers.

    We are going to have some good buys.. only thing I differ is February will put in the final low.. but wouldn’t be suprise with your scenario. My pattern has us this month low.

    Best of luck.. oh yes almost forgot you meant $2.50 iamgold on US dollar ticker.. I keep forgetting your trade us and I trade cad.. I have as low as $3.30 -$3.80

    Glen

    Feb 17, 2021 17:25 PM

    testing for a post

      Feb 17, 2021 17:30 PM

      Hi Syljion, please feel free to comment. When you are a first time poster (or have a new IP address) the comment is automatically put into moderation. Now that’s it’s approved you should have no issue posting.

      Thanks for joining the conversation.

      Please email me at Fleck@kereport.com if any of your future comments are moderated.

    Feb 17, 2021 17:43 PM

    Nominal long bond yields and gold will ultimately rise together like they did in the 1970s. I don’t think it’s time for the decoupling of price action direction yet but it IS coming. In other words, gold will continue to rise and fall with bond prices for awhile longer and then they will move opposite one another, i.e., gold will eventually move with bond yields rather than bond prices.
    GLD turned up about 11 weeks ahead of TLT at the 2018 low and I bet it will lead the turn this time as well…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27799550165

    Feb 17, 2021 17:12 PM

    I would not be surprised if Tesla saw its top in January:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p10450283092&a=720693145

    Feb 17, 2021 17:32 PM

    I would not be surprised if Apple saw its top in January:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p94657609537&a=902966061

    Feb 17, 2021 17:42 PM

    Microsoft hit a new high today but has negative technical divergences of its own. A top is likely not far off:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p74919631549&a=902969489

    Feb 18, 2021 18:01 AM

    Gold Setting up Major Bottom So Could We See a Breakout Rally Begin Soon?

    by @TheTechnicalTraders on 17 Feb 2021

    “My research team and I believe the recent downside trend in Gold has reached a support level, near $1765, that will act as a launching pad for a potentially big upside price trend. This support level aligns with previous price highs (May 2020 through June 2020) after the Covid-19 price collapse, which we believe is an indication of a strong support level. As you can see from the Gold Futures Weekly chart below, if Gold price levels hold above $1765 then we feel the next upside rally in metals could prompt a move targeting $2160, then $2400.”

    https://ceo.ca/@thetechnicaltraders/gold-setting-up-major-bottom-so-could-we-see-a-breakout-rally-begin-soon

      Feb 18, 2021 18:35 AM

      1765……..good year to start thinking of a revolt…….. 🙂
      Must be a sign…. 🙂

        Feb 18, 2021 18:22 AM

        Good one OOTB! Yes, the gold revolt is still in the works. Ha!

          Feb 18, 2021 18:08 AM

          Thanks…… Every day is new again…. 🙂

    Feb 18, 2021 18:39 AM

    Check out Dr. Copper – currently moving higher at $3.91.

    Over the next year or so if we the $4-$4.50 range come back into focus, then some of the miners are going to really stretch their legs.

    https://www.investing.com/commodities/copper

      Feb 18, 2021 18:44 AM

      That wasn’t worded as well, as clearly the Copper miners have been stretching their legs since the March sector lows, but what I meant was more that a $4 handle on Copper is like seeing Silver in the $30s and will bring in even more investment capital and push the miners even higher.

      Take a look at the very solid uptrend in place in the Copper miners ETF – (COPX). It’s a thing of beauty…

      https://schrts.co/YtFDEmek

        Feb 18, 2021 18:32 AM

        And then there’s my big copper holding…..your namesake……trading below its recently announced pp

          Feb 18, 2021 18:23 AM

          Yeah, I’ve been eyeing Excelsior Mining for an entry.

        BDC
        Feb 18, 2021 18:19 AM

        Ex, CPER had some weird price action last Friday (not a real Shooting Star). COPX is topping now, most likely for a common pull back. My target is BackBox50 (50%) 37.09 coming soon: https://ibb.co/jgn4KdN

          BDC
          Feb 18, 2021 18:26 AM
          BDC
          Feb 18, 2021 18:40 AM

          P.S. Note my comments about Platinum above.

          Feb 18, 2021 18:25 AM

          Thanks for the heads up BDC. After the run it’s had, it wouldn’t be surprising to see COPX take a breather, but the main bullish breakout is well cemented at this point, and the copper stocks have had a great year.

        Feb 18, 2021 18:28 PM

        Everyone this side of the millennium has been saying 65-70 of all Silver mined was mined as a by-product. Peter Magaw, GEO.PHD NOW IS SAYING the true percentage is 80% as a by-product.

    Feb 18, 2021 18:43 AM

    Hey Matthew I have to ask…..have you always been this patient and confident with your investing???… and by that I mean to hold so few stocks and in in such large quantities and even buying more as they are out of favour…..I couldn’t handle not seeing something in my portfolio going up at some point during the week

      Feb 18, 2021 18:00 AM

      Morning cup of gold flavour update!

      Exactly what I wanted to see! A mini rally with a green candle today..If the ducks align as my trend has forecasted, tomorrow or possibly even today we should have a red candle close in the vicinity of $1871-$1876 for a second close below the November low.

      You better hope if that happens, you got all the money in the Santa bag ready to be deployed..Monday, Tuesday and possibly Wednesday smash before the turn is what glen smells..

      As always the best to all the good is almost there..

      Glen

      Feb 18, 2021 18:33 AM

      Wolfster, I am more patient/confident with some than others and it helps that I do get exposure to other things along the way. For example, I bought a large amount of CF Holdings under $30 last year along with similarly large amounts of XOP under $40, OIH under $100 and several pipeline MLPs which I mentioned here at the time. Later, I put more than $300,000 into HL and $250,000 into MUX in addition to trading quite a bit of SILJ.
      My latest spec that will require patience is Galleon Gold (1.3 million shares). Yes, one has to be prepared for periods in which theses things don’t do much, or worse, but staying focused has its benefits. You can’t kiss all the girls and those who try to are asking for trouble. 😉

        Feb 18, 2021 18:35 AM

        Thanks for insights Matthew. The big takeaway I’ve come to realize is I twofold problem…..I want all the girls and I’m trying to get past 1st base with all of them. 😎

          Feb 18, 2021 18:59 AM

          Well that’s a twofold problem that presents exponentially more problems. 😳 🙈

            Feb 18, 2021 18:01 AM

            I’m rooting for you though!

            Feb 18, 2021 18:55 AM

            😆

            Feb 18, 2021 18:05 AM

            🤣🤣🤣

          Feb 18, 2021 18:27 AM

          Good luck Wolfster. I’m rooting for you as well. Haha!

        Feb 18, 2021 18:54 AM

        Well said Matthew! 😃

    Feb 18, 2021 18:20 AM

    Well, Goldman Sacks( aka the ESF) IS AT IT AGAIN, quenching any upside in Ag this morning and allowing the GROUP OF 4, 8) to recover the Ag SHORTS. WHERE ELSE DO YOU THINK THE MISSING $91-112 TRILLION came from, documents by Dr. Mark Skidmore, PhD Forensic Economist & staff, originated the liquidity

    Feb 18, 2021 18:34 AM

    US hearings starting on market manipulation. Morning smash could be a message to Congress letting them know who owns the markets and it is not the “people”.

      Feb 18, 2021 18:52 AM

      Sickening display of criminality.

        Feb 18, 2021 18:41 AM

        Ditto…….. no way am I watching Maxie Big Mouth Waters……
        No way am I watching the lips of liars move….., the Congress full of dead beats, sucking of the public.

          Feb 18, 2021 18:42 AM

          off….not of….

    Feb 18, 2021 18:15 AM

    Pan American Silver (PAAS) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.57 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.39 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.33 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 46.15%.

    First Majestic Silver (AG) reports earning today. First Majestic is currently shorted by Melvin Capital. Yes, the same Melvin Capital that lost $2 billion shorting GME.

    BDC
    Feb 18, 2021 18:23 AM

    We’re close… a partial fill just now!

      BDC
      Feb 18, 2021 18:14 AM

      Bot ESKYF 1.77 Stop 1.64

    BDC
    Feb 18, 2021 18:57 AM

    NEM – Beautiful turn candle combination, and fully Saturated!

    Feb 18, 2021 18:03 AM

    On February 18, 2021 at 9:20 am,
    bonzo says:
    Thanks Glen, will do. How low do you think ESKYF and ELRRF will drop?

    Hey bonzo I’m going to leave that one to Matthew..

    Matthew that’s correct in regards to the gap not being there in Canadian ticker.

    I’m not invested in this vechicle but does look interesting.

    The 2.25 would be a good area bonzo as Matt said to pick up and maybe leave some powder if it does go slightly lower.

    Dan thank you I guess.. we are very close..

    I’m walking away from the computer guys.. it’s that time of day when the brain needs air..

    Best of luck to everyone and as many of us in here have said, I have 100% confidence that in 3-6 months the miners are going to be up sweet.

    Glen