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Bitcoin, gold and oil – Here’s how Dana is trading all of those sectors

Dana Lyons, Fund Manager joins me to focus on the Bitcoin crash, gold’s recent breakout, and oil’s decline. We also tie the base metals in with oil’s correction. As an active trader Dana gives us insights into what the generalist investor who focuses on the price action in the charts is seeing.

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Discussion
52 Comments
    May 21, 2021 21:10 AM

    I went to BMs 321gold.com and he had the lastest posting from Morris Hubbartt (sp). If interested, go to Morris site and he talked about three stocks that may be of interest: Defiance (he talked about a massive bull flag); Santacruz (possible break-out pending) and Scottie Resources (he mentioned it has fallen from .52 to .22 and looks like forming a bull flage). I bought Scottie for the second time this morning sub .20. Although I missed the presentation, Greg McCoach had Scottie as one of his presenters at the MIF yesterday. FWIW

      May 21, 2021 21:48 AM

      Thanks for the heads up David. I’ll post the link to Morris’s segment featured on 321gold below, and I believe it is the 3rd video link down that you are referencing with Scottie. As for Santacruz, I’ve been a big fan for years, and it was the best performing Silver producer in 2020 at 2 different points, because it is the most highly torqued to rising prices as the tiniest market cap & higher cost Silver producer where they get a nice boost in economic margins as the metals prices run.

      There were some good SCZ charts and comments back on Wednesday (at the bottom of Jordan’s blog) from Dan, calgary and Matthew were folks reviewing in addition to Morris’s comments below.

      ____________________________________________________________________

      Gold Charts: Bull Flags In Play

      May 21, 2021 Morris Hubbartt – Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis

      http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt052121.html

        May 21, 2021 21:50 AM

        were = worth “worth folks review…”

          May 21, 2021 21:44 AM

          I own Santacruz also.

            May 21, 2021 21:27 PM

            Nice. Santacruz has had a number of fantastic rallies the last 2 year, and proves once again, that it isn’t always the lowest cost or “best” miners that outperform, but rather it is often the higher cost smaller micro-cap producers that see the best outperformance in a rising metals price environment, due to the impact this has, on a percentage basis, to the their economic margins. SCZ and IPT are 2 great examples of this in the Silver space, but we see the same thing happen in the Gold space. After a certain point, the trend moves down the foodchain to the developers that didn’t have as good of projects at lower prices, but the higher prices then put even the marginal deposits back in play again, spiking their punchbowls.

            Ever Upward!

      May 21, 2021 21:32 PM

      Andrew Maguire – End of a Really Good Week for COMEX Gold and Silver

      Sprott Money Weekly Wrap Up – May 21, 2021 w/ host Craig Hemke

      https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/End-of-a-Really-Good-Week-for-COMEX-Gold-and-Silver-Weekly-Wrap-Up#

      May 21, 2021 21:36 PM

      New slide deck out for (CDE) Coeur Mining for those that like the mid-tier Silver/Gold producers:

      https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/sa_presentations/563/70563/original.pdf

        May 21, 2021 21:43 PM

        This was notable news earlier this month from Coeur positioning in Victoria Gold. I thought they may get more of a stake going in Corvus Gold, due to their proximity to Sterling project in Nevada (that they scooped up from Northern Empire), but AngloGold Ashanti beat them to the punch on Corvus taking out a 20% stake and blocking them from considering other transactions for 90 days. It is looking like AngloGold Ashanti may make a move on Corvus for a takeover in the next few months, so I’m holding onto my Corvus for that potential news but will then sell into that even (if it plays out that way). I was willing to hold onto the Corvus if Coeur moved on them, since I already hold a position in CDE.

        Anyway, it is timely and interesting that right after that Coeur made this move on Victoria Gold.

        ________________________________________________________________________

        Coeur Announces Investment in Victoria Gold Corp.

        “We have long admired the quality of Victoria’s Eagle asset and its recent success in ramping up operations. This compelling opportunity to acquire 17.8% ownership interest in Victoria from Orion is consistent with our stated strategy and capital allocation framework, and complements our existing portfolio of precious metals assets in high-quality jurisdictions in North America,” commented Mitchell J. Krebs, Coeur’s President and Chief Executive Officer. “We are excited to become a shareholder of Victoria, and believe this transaction represents an attractive investment for our stockholders.”

        https://www.coeur.com/_resources/news/nr_20210510.pdf

    May 21, 2021 21:13 AM

    ONE BIG GAME…..

    May 21, 2021 21:40 AM

    There is a new mining technology for rare earths and other metals like copper. It’s called In-situ Recovery Frequency Mining. Actually it is an old technology that is being re-introduced to rival China’s recovery of rare earth metals. It involves blasting high frequencies into rock with acids which causes rare earth metals to ooze out of the rock for recovery. This technology is already in place and being used effectively. Excelsior Mining Corp. is developing the Gunnison Copper Project, a low cost in-situ recovery copper project located within the copper porphyry belt of Arizona.

    https://www.excelsiormining.com/investors/in-situ-recovery

      May 21, 2021 21:00 PM

      Yep, Excelsior Mining and Taseko Mines both utilize in-situ mining methods for Copper, but it is more prevalent with the Uranium miners like Kazatomprom in Kazakhstan, or that Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy have produced from in the past. UEC, Denison, Peninsula, and Azarga are also uranium developers on track to go into in-situ U308 production when the metals prices or contract cycle improves.

      It is a lower cost, less disruptive, and far easier to permit process for mining companies so it will be interesting to see how this mining method continues to be utilized by more companies. Excelsior mining has had a few challenges with acids created by the host rocks on their copper extraction, so they are still working out the kinks and need to show the market they can deliver as advertised, but I’m still constructive they’ll get the solution fine tuned with chemistry to economically extract the red metal. It will also be interesting to see how well Denison does extracting uranium from the sandstone up in the Athabasca basin, as it hasn’t been tried there before. Most of the Athabasca has been hard rock underground mining over the last decade or two, and the insitu mining has been in Wyoming, Arizona, and UEC is proposing doing it in Texas.

    May 21, 2021 21:47 AM

    If you’re on the ‘inflation forever’ train, you probably ought to listen to David Rosenburg’s take…….he offers quite a different take than most analysts.
    https://www.macrovoices.com/

    cfs
    May 21, 2021 21:04 AM

    The opinion Rules:

    https://youtu.be/sSlTGMmnhEY

    May 21, 2021 21:22 AM

    How does anyone have any freaking clue as to what $hitcoin is going to do? I laugh when I hear someone giving “analysis” on that.

      May 21, 2021 21:32 PM

      For the cryptos, the primary downside movers this week have been from Elon Musk and China’s hampering them for payment methods and lashing out at the crypto miners for their energy consumption…. all with the backdrop of crystal clear inflation in the markets. I guess all the claims from the cryptosphere about it being such a great inflation hedge didn’t pan out with most cryptos crashing by 40-60% in the last few weeks.

      Meanwhile, endless bobble heads in the lamestream financial media kept claiming Gold was not a good inflation hedge, pointing to the last few years when we didn’t see much inflation registering in the CPI numbers (which made their argument silly, as we didn’t see any inflation yet). The last 2 months Inflation finally reared its ugly head, and low and behold…. Gold moved up the last 2 months…. right on cue.

        May 21, 2021 21:39 PM

        Ex, the bearish technical “writing on the wall” was well in place way ahead of those negative news stories. At best, Musk and China expedited the fall but nothing was going to save BC from the chart that it had already painted.

          May 21, 2021 21:08 PM

          Yes, the crypto craze had gotten over-cooked once again. The surge higher was stronger than many expected, but the eventual fall down the other side of the parabola was just a matter of time. I’m interested to see if this recent crash gets bought back up again, and if some of the more established names like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, Cardano, etc… can eventually smooth out their volatility more.

          At this point in time, something that can crash 40-60% in 2 weeks when there isn’t an all out panic in the markets, is NOT a great “store of value” as many claim that it is. Maybe over time that will change, but more likely, many cryptos will be replaced with government digital currencies, and all of this action the last few years was just the initial priming of the pump and dress rehearsal for the government run digital fiat of the future.

          It will be fascinating to follow along with how things develop.

            May 21, 2021 21:23 PM

            The US Government wants the crypto owners to pay tax on their profits, the noose is tightening, I think we have a divorce going on here. Great for the lawyers but terrible for the married couple. DT

            May 21, 2021 21:01 PM

            BC has always been and will always be too volatile to be money. It fell 85% after topping in 2017. If gold ever did something like that, it would be because the dollar spiked in real purchasing power (as opposed to spiking vs the euro). The general price level would also fall, of course, which would mitigate significantly gold’s real decline. BC, on the other hand, falls like any other speculative asset with no relationship at all to the dollar or any other money substitute.
            It will swing wildly as buyers jump on the oversold dips but it is ultimately going lower.

            DT, the US gov has always wanted a piece of virtually any gain/profit, it’s nothing new.

      May 21, 2021 21:35 PM

      Thomas, it’s all in the charts. No matter how flawed an asset might be, the charts give a picture of the dominant outlook and BC’s charts have been very good at showing which way things will go. The picture turned bullish last summer before the huge rise and turned decisively bearish a month before Elon Musk decided Tesla would no longer accept BC (and showed bearish divergences/warnings for many weeks before turning “big picture” bearish).
      It remains very bearish.
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p89008796473&a=946395811

    May 21, 2021 21:06 PM

    On May 17, I picked up some Viva Gold. I picked up this idea from Dave Kranzler. Viva was to merge with Golden Predator but it fell through. The stock price dropped. It may be worth a look at current price levels.

      May 21, 2021 21:49 PM

      Hmmm… I hadn’t even heard about Golden Predator potentially making a move on Viva Gold, so thanks for the heads up David. Never even heard of it, but I’ll need to do some homework on why the deal fell through. David Kranzler is a sharp guy though and I appreciate his thoughts on the junior mining stocks.

    May 21, 2021 21:34 PM

    Attached below is a Gold chart for review.

    Please note that both the downward trendline from last August’s peak through the Jan peak down to around the $1850 level, as well as the 200 day MA at $1851 were both cleared by Gold with closes above those levels all week long.

    Especially significant is the close today ending the week decisively above both that downside trendline and the 200 day MA.

    That is a textbook confirmation of the move higher that started off the double bottom in March at the $1673/$1674 levels for anyone to see with their own eyes.

    https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1gag1ln-Gold%20Just%20Took%20Out%20Trendline%20and%20200%20Day%20MA.JPG

      May 21, 2021 21:38 PM

      Those that kept calling for Gold to have a bloodbath in April & May, or for Silver to have pulled back to $22 or lower during the last 2 months were sadly mistaken.

      The miners have done very well the last 2 months since the double bottom in Gold in March, and this week confirms this was more than just a relief rally or “dead cat bounce.” It appears that those of us that were buying heavily in the weakness in March, (as I stated repeatedly I was doing, albeit with some trepidation), ended up getting a nice tradeable rally out of this after all.

        May 21, 2021 21:47 PM

        Again, it is interesting how quiet it has been on the blog from last Friday to this Friday with even the junior miners starting to move up nicely, and join their senior and mid-tier counterparts. Folks that were buying miners near the end of Q1 or to kick off Q2 should have had some nice returns the last 2 months, and one would expect to see a bit more enthusiasm, but it seems the overly bearish sentiment created a few months back has caused many investors to not believe the steady ramp-up higher in the miners for the last 7-8 weeks.

        I’ve been trimming a bit off the top in some of my gainers this week, just in case things were rejected at resistance here, and because other commodities (copper, oil, platinum, nickel, iron, soft food commodities, etc…) looked to be overbought and topping out, as China throttled back it’s buying of them.

        I close up shop for the week with another all time high in my portfolio, which has been happening for the last 2-3 weeks, so taking a few chips off the table here seems like a wise risk management scenario, in case we see any backing and filling in the next week or so that can be exploited. Overall though, things continue to look solid for the bull market in both Gold and Silver for the general trend.

        May all the good folks here at the KER have prosperity and good trading in the weeks to come, and hoping all our Canadian friends have a nice long weekend.

        Cheers!

          May 21, 2021 21:29 PM

          Hey Ex, Did you notice that Simon Ridgeway hasn’t allowed Rakla Metals SYL RAK-V, too finalize it’s trading halt. This time I will pick up some shares when it happens and let them sit. Ridgeway is good at diverting investors attention. DT

            May 21, 2021 21:52 PM

            Simon is a shrewd businessman, and has an interesting and successful history in the exploration & mining sector in Central and South America. His fame last cycle throug present was with with Fortuna Silver, and this time he is more focused on Radius Gold, Rackla Metals, and now at Volcanic Gold.

            The trading hold seems to be around the purchase of the Misisi Gold project, as it was issued the day that news came out. That’s a pretty normal situation during a major company-changing acquisition like that.

            ___________________________________________________________________________

            (RAK) Rackla Metals to Acquire the Misisi Gold Project with Inferred Resource of 3.1 Million Ounces Gold, and Appoints New Board Member

            5 May 2021

            https://ceo.ca/@thenewswire/rackla-metals-to-acquire-the-misisi-gold-project-with

    May 21, 2021 21:42 PM

    Bitcon…… $36000…….

      May 21, 2021 21:46 PM

      Down from $64,899 on April 13th… just a little over a month ago.

      I guess the $64,000 question was: “Is Bitcoin a good inflation hedge?”

      The $35,932 answer is: “Nope.” 😉

        May 21, 2021 21:48 PM

        Nope is right…….. a lot of dopes out there… 🙂
        One nut job….is calling for $12 million Bitcon…at kitconews….. Wet behind the ears , youth what a delusion…. lol

          May 21, 2021 21:50 PM

          Of course , if Biden Brain, gets electrified , AOC, gets charged up….. TO THE MOON BABY…… lol… what a world… 🙂

          May 21, 2021 21:53 PM

          Ha! I see that now OOTB. Why do they always have to forecast such outrageous numbers in all asset classes? Not just in Bitcoin, but in the PMs, in Tesla or Apple stock, in the general indexes etc… It would be so much better to just focus on where prices are going in the next few weeks, few months or maybe a a year out. Anything further is just nonsensical guessing as nobody knows what the world will look like in a few years out, (especially at the rate things have devolved in just the last 14 months….)

          Here’s that title you are referencing over at Kitco.

          “Bitcoin to hit $307k by October, then $12.5 million by 2031” – Robert Breedlove

          Yikes!!

            May 21, 2021 21:12 PM

            Ditto……… I agree…. Just a book and tape guy… for the new generation…. lol

            May 21, 2021 21:33 PM

            Wait, we’re the dollar to get annihilated by hyper-inflation, BTC to the moon is entirely possible. Furthermore, shouldn’t The Fed be buying up the PM space with their asset purchases?

            May 22, 2021 22:19 AM

            We’ll continue to see a ramp up of inflation, but it’s unlikely we have hyperinflation, as people have been warning about that for several decades now, and we won’t see a Germany/Venezuela situation here. The dollar will likely continue to get devalued down into the mid to low 80s, and could possibly get down in the high 70s, but the powers that be would engineer some kind of “Great Reset” long before the dollar goes to zero.

            It remains to be seen what actually ends up surviving in the crypto space with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the hundreds of other altcoins, but a few with legitimate use cases may survive. Again, it is far more likely that the central banks come up with their own digital currencies, and that in the future all citizens have digital wallets filled with national or global digital currencies that the governments can track, tax, and restrict for maximum control over the populace. The idea of traditional decentralized cryptos is for personal freedom and autonomy, but that flies in the face of the what governments of the world want, and that is why they will crush most crypto competition or possibly outlaw it like China and Turkey have done.

    May 21, 2021 21:34 PM

    (MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos – Gold Production Imminent, Stock Ready For The Next Leg Up

    Soar Financial – May 20, 2021

    “We welcome Doug Ramshaw, President of Minerals Alamos Inc. (TSX.v: MAI) to discuss the importance of today’s news, imminent gold production & more.”

    https://youtu.be/GXCIUxWfRNk?t=215

    May 21, 2021 21:13 PM

    SPX:Gold rallied over 25 after filling its big February gap but is still very much bearish technically.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p15628892418&a=942651397

    May 21, 2021 21:17 PM

    GDX finished the week well above its weekly upper Bollinger Band and that is bullish since the BB is rising steeply.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p39884773516&a=940285795

    May 21, 2021 21:21 PM

    HUI speed line breakout and best weekly close since the first week of November:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p86029644205&a=949257852

    May 21, 2021 21:31 PM
    May 21, 2021 21:35 PM

    For the few of you who can view a quarterly chart, NEM has perfectly reached a very important resistance:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=Q&yr=40&mn=11&dy=0&id=p58819754876&a=956002417

    May 21, 2021 21:46 PM

    The oldest gold miner mutual fund, USERX, just made its best weekly close since September, 2011.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USERX&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p28216666941

    May 21, 2021 21:58 PM

    TLT has almost definitely bottomed in March 10 days after GLD did. It makes sense that the superior and true safe haven leads it.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p28544668749&a=957273145