Jordan Roy-Byrne – A Focus On The Macro Picture in the Precious Metals

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Editor & Publisher of The Daily Gold, joins us for some macro thoughts on the precious metals, and his takeaway from the recent moves in gold, silver, and the precious metals mining stocks.  We discuss his in-depth market study of the 52 week highs and lows distributed across the metals and miners and what that research is telling him about the medium term trend.  He continues to see the main catalysts gold needs as being either a meaningful Fed policy change or a correction in the general stock markets. We wrap up with some ideas from Jordan about how he’s trading these markets, with some interest in scaling in to the right kind of value propositions.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

    Aug 25, 2021 25:32 PM

    Another great exchange of thoughts. I don’t think the Fed will stop bailing out the banks since the banks own them. I also think continued negative interest rates and the worthless dollar is gold positive. Doesn’t mean they won’t intervene and alter reality.

      Aug 25, 2021 25:59 PM

      Agreed David. I don’t believe the Fed will stop bailing out the banks either, and the repo market madness will continue.

      The more pressing question at present is will they announce something more definitive about how they dial back their accommodative $120 Billion worth of bond purchases each month, and what kind of a timeline will they put on that?

      It is really interesting to think that after the 2008-2009 Great Financial Crisis, that quantitative easing was supposed to just be “temporary” for “emergency” measures. Now 12 years later they are getting ready to taper back their bond buying, into a supposedly stronger economic outlook (even while they have now shifted to a virtual meeting due to all the supposed concerns about the Delta variant of Covid).

      If the powers that be decide to start further locking down businesses again, like they did last year, then the “reopening trade” is going to come to a screeching halt, and then maybe the economic outlook isn’t going to be so rosy.

      It’s unlikely Jerome Powell will do much more than jawbone in generalities at Jackson Hole, so I’m expecting a big nothing burger for Friday. However, moving into the Fed’s September meeting, if some of the Fed bobbleheads sniff out that there is market weakness, then they may be less likely to taper or may push it back out further on the timeline. It seems that is what the general markets are expecting and may be behind their recent strength.

      If the Fed punts on tapering in their remarks from the September meeting, then that may be a catalyst to bring over a bit of safe haven buying into the precious metals, as it would be an admission of a rough road ahead.

      Then after that there is the whole discussion of how far “behind the curve” the Fed already is, and it will be interesting to see if they get forced to tighten and hike rates at the end of next year or if they stick with the “not until 2023 narrative.”

      As we’ve covered a number of times on the show on the blog, gold has actually done quite well in prior tightening cycles, because is usually means inflation is sticky and starting to run hotter.

      We’ll see how it goes….

      Aug 25, 2021 25:49 PM

      Thanks for a great response. Another thing is I don’t think Asian or worldwide traders drive the red candles here and there around the world. My guess is JP Morgan Australia, Hong Kong, London and New York (or representative cartel members) trigger the intervention and take turns in joining in price suppression. Speculators, if you are talking managed money, may assist, carefully, with guarantees.

        Aug 25, 2021 25:34 PM

        Yeah, the big boy bankers and bullion banks can push things around at the fringes, and there is market spoofing etc… but really 80-90% of trading these days in the larger sectors and futures markets are bots and high frequency trading algos, so we carbon-based life forms have it rough, going up against the silicon-based AI.

        I’m a simple person, and just try to trade using the numbers we have on the charts, as the closing price encapsulates the entire market, all traders silicon and carbon based, and the huge institutions down the small retail traders. I just assume there are bigger traders with billions to spend throwing their weight around in most markets, and just try to roll with the punches. I still get plenty of black eyes and fat lips, but have learned to be faster with my bobbing and weaving, ducking and dodging. Haha!

          Aug 26, 2021 26:38 AM

          You do a great job of dancing correctly. I am mote of a “get up slowly off the mat”.

    Aug 25, 2021 25:49 PM

    I believe Jordan if my memory serves me correct was warning many many months ago that this correction was not over. I remember posting at the time on that particular podcast agreeing with the analysis with both Jordan and Corey. I did turn cautiously bullish though and that worked out very well and then we had this big correction. I would have to say all in all Jordans analysis has been very good for longer term investors of course not day trading type investing that’s not very profitable anyway for most people they always end up losing money eventually. So, here we are with a much better opportunity and Jordan was right many many months ago.

      Aug 25, 2021 25:07 PM

      Very good attribute of Jordan is he tries to do a very thorough job of analyzing everything. He’s not a perma gold bull. I didn’t listen to this podcast but everything I’ve ever heard from Jordan there’s no hype. Also, he’s not pitching stocks that compensate him on the side. At least not to my knowledge. We’ll, I haven’t listened to anything for many many months. I’m pretty much immune to any volatility. Mining equities never disappointed on the ups and downs.

      Aug 25, 2021 25:13 PM

      Yes, Jordan has been correct that the weakness stuck around for longer than many expected, especially in the mining stocks, and he was right to remain skeptical of the break out above the downward trendline a few months back that many viewed as “The Breakout”.

      However, if we are going to be accurate then the low of $1673 was still put in during March (which was5 months ago) and it was followed by a nice rally higher in the PMs.

      The recent waterfall decline 2 weeks ago (which happened in overseas trading and not during the normal US trading session) only got down to that higher low of $1677 (from the higher of the 2 lows from the March double-bottom). So from that standpoint, and based on what we’ve seen thus far, Gold actually bottomed back in March, providing that support continues to hold and we don’t see that level break to lower lows.

      People sometimes paint with a broad brush, and call something a continuation of the bear market when it technically is not. That is the case at present. The low for the year was 5 months ago, and for the last few months to have been a “continuation of the correction,” and for that to be true, then we’d need to have seen lower lows in gold (and while that is still quite possible, we haven’t seen lower lows).

      It should also be pointed out that Gold and the miners did rally nicely in April, May, and early June coming out of the low for this year in gold at $1673, and that was a great tradable rally for those that were accumulating into the weakness during the March double bottom lows.

      It should also be pointed out that currently Gold is $120 bucks higher that that March low of $1673 at $1793, and it was up over $1800 earlier this week, so that isn’t a continuation of the correction. Dave Erfle also pointed out that the last 2 weekly closes were above the $1750-$1760 resistance, so that is also more bullish than it is bearish. We’ll have to see where things close on Friday afternoon, but if gold closes above that $1750-$1760 level again this week, than that is 3 weeks in a row.

        Aug 25, 2021 25:22 PM

        Now in the mining stocks, some of them have actually dipped below their lows from March of this year, making lower lows, so those could be considered in bear market since last August, but the larger big boy producers and royalty stocks have held up much better. Most of the junior mining stocks are down considerably though since their highs a year ago in August of 2020, and many are down below their lows in March, even though Gold has not made a new low.

        Many believe, that the miners are still signaling that the metals have further to fall as a result, but that doesn’t always play out that way. Sometime there is a divergence at the turns where the miners overshoot to the downside, and when gold starts clawing it way higher, then the miners will turnaround and play catch up, along with Silver. If we are going to start grinding higher in new upleg, then we’ll want to see many more trading sessions like what we saw on Monday with the miners and silver leading the charge higher and outperforming the move higher in gold. Until then the burden of proof is on the bulls to show the miners can get out of their funk and run higher, breaking through overhead resistance levels and getting back above the key moving averages.

          Aug 25, 2021 25:45 PM

          Thanks Ex.

          I couldn’t quite remember if Jordan correctly analyzed the market. I was fairly certain that was the case thanks for the confirmation again. I believe Jordan is one of the better analysts out there I could be mistaken though. Just seems over the last several years he’s been pretty good, shooting off memory though.

          I know that you’re very thorough and do a exceptional job with all your commentary. I’m not really a fan of David Erfle. My memory may not serve me correctly however I’m not really into these analysts at all, if any. Now that you confirmed Jordan he did call the market correctly and I’ve always liked Jordan. Regretfully, Erfle has had some bad bad calls as I remember it over the last several years. Luckily though, I never listen to him especially on McEwen mining.
          I had an interest in the stock way back when it was extremely high. I never did anything and I just waited in the wings waiting for opportunities. I picked up a nice tranche at the very lows back in 2020 around $0.80. Just sitting tight with everything and this looks like a major buying opportunity.

          I posted some comments earlier on one of the blogs today. Right now, that’s how I feel it’s still a big crap shoot with everything and all the headwinds – perils we face with all these crazy things going on government interventions and who knows what they’re going to do with PM’s.
          This is all very briefly of course because it’s on the other blog so it’s not a slam dunk by no means this market. We will all see what happens I guess in this big crap shoot. That’s exactly what it is. However, I do like Jordan he’s been very sincere and thorough with his analysis. He’s the only podcast I listened to in the last few years regarding the mining sector. Actually, you know Jack Chan has been very accurate for years and the beautiful advantage is you don’t spend any time it’s quick and straightforward. That’s a really good option for those that don’t want to spend any time listening to anything.

            Aug 25, 2021 25:26 PM

            Hi Holy Grail. Thanks for those comments and feedback, and yes, I saw some of your other posts on the other blogs today as well, and agreed with a number of the points you made.

            Yes, Jordan has been very accurate and we talk each week, and he is sincere in his research and trying to help investors, but so is Dave Erfle, and they both have had a number of solid calls, and I value getting their take on the markets. Both are fairly technically savvy, but also have a solid grasp on the macro economic backdrop, and both are very good at vetting companies and looking for unseen opportunities in the resources stocks.

            Sure, like anyone, they’ve also invested in companies or made calls that didn’t work out, but they both get far more right than they do wrong and that’s the key. I know I’ve sure had my fair share of portfolio dogs, bad investments, or I’ve entered in good companies but at the wrong time or entry price, and been burned…. but hey, that is how we all learn.

            Yes, Jack Chan is a very solid technician, and I check his work from time to time, but like everyone, he wins some and loses some, so I take everyone’s TA with a grain of salt, and ultimately, use my own analysis for my trades and believe in taking full responsibility for any decisions made, as ultimately we are all in it alone and we are the one’s the push the buy or sell button for our own trades.

            As for McEwen, I’ve traded it a few dozen times just last year and this year alone, and probably 70-80 times over the last 5-6 years. I nabbed shares of MUX last year as low as $0.56 and $0.78 and $0.79, and then did some swing trading with it in the $.83. $.87. $.89 are and then all through the $.90s’. I flipped in and out of it alot last year for quick scalps and made far more money that way in it than if I’d have just bought and held. I sold out completely last year in late July through early August at $1.33 and $1.34, but then got back in during September at $1.18 and $1.00, and added in a bit more last October at $0.97 again when it dipped down, but sold out of all those positions again in January of this year at $1.46. I’ve added back a few tranches again this year at $1.12, $1.14, $1.19, and $1.35, but also sold some at $1.48 and $1.66. I have no idea where I’m at cumulatively with MUX since 2016, but I had a few bad trades in it during 2018 and 2019, but overall have made far more than I lost on Rob’s venture. My current trade is underwater with a cost basis around $1.29, and added a bit too it a few weeks back at $1.12, and may add a bit more if we see some more extreme weakness in the sector to bring the cost basis down further, but I’m more of an active trader, and recognize that is not many people’s approach.

            Good luck in your investments and may they be prosperous. Thanks for the interesting comments today.

            Aug 25, 2021 25:12 PM

            Thanks Ex for all your time invested in your reply. Jack Chan though don’t remember any bad calls. David E. don’t follow him only a couple times. Jordan more than David and I think Jordan comes out on top. I do my own analysis and that’s what I’ve been posting here on this blog today. We’re in a completely different environment than anytime in history.

            The mining equities look good right now though. As long as they stay at these lower levels in a big stock market correction I think they’ll turn around with little downside and explode to the upside. Again though, everything I said on the other blog is also a big factor in all this.

            It’s always, pay your money and take your chances. And when the going gets tough, the tough get going. There’s no secret to prosperity, it’s all hard work. The rest is BS. Everyone reaps, what they sow.

            Hope you make a lot of money and enjoy the fruits of your labor.

    Aug 25, 2021 25:24 PM

    Ex: some more good info. Thanks for sharing.

      Aug 25, 2021 25:29 PM

      Thanks David and always happy to ramble and rant. 🙂

      I got back to you on one of the other blogs a little while ago, but forgot which one and what it was about now. Haha! It’s busy without Cory’s help, and I’m not nearly as fast as editing these segments as he is, nor as good of an interviewer, so I had a lot of fixer upper work to even get these posted today, and I’m working on some of other ones tonight to post in the morning because they take me so long.

      We have a full schedule of interesting guests the rest of the week so stay tuned for more insights… Cheers!

    Aug 26, 2021 26:58 AM

    Powerful interview. 3,800 views as I post this, and climbing quickly.

    At 45:30 Dr. David Martin answers the important question, “Why is this injection so important to their agenda”?

      Aug 26, 2021 26:13 AM

      I just noticed that the interview with Dr. David Martin has been posted previously by Vaccine Choice Canada. The video from Aug 21 has been viewed 181,000 times.

      It’s good to know that the word is getting out there.

        Aug 26, 2021 26:58 AM

        And what did MORGAN have to say……. thanks……..

          Aug 26, 2021 26:00 AM

          Never mind…….. I miss read your statement,… I had “Morgan” on the brain….
          just got done listening to him , reporting in his car… LOL….

    Aug 26, 2021 26:39 AM

    Where Do Gold And Silver Prices Go From Here?

    August 23, 2021 – by Keith Weiner – Monetary Metals

    “One way to look at the price of gold, is that it dropped from its high around $1,900 in early June. Another way is to zoom out, and look at the big picture. Here is a 10-year chart of gold and silver prices.”

    “The dollar is a debt instrument. It is ultimately the liability of the Federal Reserve, backed by the debt of the US government. Which is backed by the capacity to tax everyone who produces within the US jurisdiction. And, in the wake of Covid, production dropped while the amount of debt rose. The US government therefor lurched closer to default.”

    “At the same time, the interest it pays to holders of this debt went down. Higher risk, less reward. And the opportunity cost to own gold—which pays no yield (other than at Monetary Metals®)—is less. One may be tempted by a Treasury paying 1.8%, but not so much at 0.5%.”

    “The interest rate on this 10-year Treasury began to rise in August last year. It hit a peak (under the pre-Covid level) in March of this year. Since then, it has been falling again.”

    Aug 26, 2021 26:13 AM
    News on LITHIUM…………….. humm…… drugs to lithium…. Maybe there will be a WAR on Lithium….

      Aug 26, 2021 26:14 AM

      Taliban Secures World’s Largest Lithium Deposits After US Withdrawal From Afghanistan,,,
      Timing is EVERYTHING………. 🙂

        Aug 26, 2021 26:16 AM

        It’s been more than a decade since we penned “The US “Discovers” Nearly $1 Trillion In Mineral Deposits In Afghanistan” in which we highlighted the colossal untapped mineral deposits that reside in Afghanistan.

          Aug 26, 2021 26:18 AM

          So in the Economic Hit Man context, why would the Biden administration suddenly pull out of Afghanistan after 20 years if the play all along was about securing rare earth metals?

          We don’t want to speculate the Biden administration’s intentions, nor do we have any idea. Still, one thing is sure is that the Taliban now control the world’s largest lithium deposits is becoming friendly with China.

          Conservative media outlet Free West Media says new relations between the Taliban and China could increase its global dominance in green energies, such as the lithium-ion battery supply chain market.

            Aug 26, 2021 26:26 AM

            OK……. interesting…. not all bad news….
            on the Oregon-Nevada border which contains the largest lithium deposit in the United States. A number of other active volcanoes may hold the same deposits, and there is a particularly “exciting” one, called Bogoslof, in Alaska. That may be why the US has lost interest in Afghanistan.

    Aug 26, 2021 26:52 AM

    10 minute gdx…the measured move up yesterday failed to reach completion near 31.80 area…this hinted at more weakness….all that has happened is wave d down…still normal number of waves and on low volume…Virtually same price level eg retest…..A place institutions may load up again….first minimal price to clear is the 31.78 to establish a new up direction…glta

    Aug 26, 2021 26:21 AM

    Zerohedge piece.. great read . Thanks Jerry.. for the link.

      Aug 26, 2021 26:53 AM

      You are welcome Ann…….. glad you enjoyed it…..

    Aug 26, 2021 26:37 AM

    Total computer controlled miner pricing.

    Aug 26, 2021 26:45 AM

    Great drill results announced by Vizsla.

      Aug 26, 2021 26:41 AM

      Had a good start to the day based on the merits of the drill results. Looks like they are walking it back with computers as good drill results not compatible with the Fed Agenda.

      Aug 26, 2021 26:08 AM

      Boom, Boom Joe……. Man this can’t be happening on my watch….
      Bye, Bye Joe…..

        Aug 26, 2021 26:12 AM

        With BOOM< BOOM…….. gold should be headed to the MOON…..

      Aug 26, 2021 26:47 AM

      Not sure if they halted anything as I saw 3 take off following the blast discussion. I did see some ground fire beyond the end of the runway against a C130 which is a little slow compared to the C17s. (Ground fire looked like rifle fire). It appeared it was just getting dark around 6:30 and planes were taking off without any normal lights on, I assume to give them a better chance of not drawing ground fire. But, looks like steady continuation of flights. Also there was Chinook activity around the airport.

    Aug 26, 2021 26:42 AM

    EXCELSIOR question….Hope you see this…Maybe you could explain the following?..thanx in advance…If the FED and agents manage to keep the interest rates near here or lower , that weakens the dollar…The effect on gold is?…If bond vigilantes or whatever get a bid under yields and crash bond prices…The effect on gold is?…Hope to hear some good news..lmao

      Aug 26, 2021 26:56 AM

      Hi Larry – Good comments and questions, as per usual.

      The FED has done well with jawboning the markets into believing that inflation will just be “transitory”, even if we clearly see a trend of rising inflation far above the pre-pandemic levels, and it is not just the after affects of supply chain interruption (like we saw with lumber or chips for new cars etc…). The moves in Oil, Copper, Nickel, Iron, Palladium/Platinum, Zinc, Lead, etc…. are not just from these temporary blips, but a signal of a large move up in commodities and real assets in relation to a number of other asset classes like the general stock markets, or cryptos, or NFTs, collectibles, real estate etc…

      The FED is clearly “behind the curve” here with hiking rates (and they are acutely aware of this, but don’t have much wiggle room to raise rates without being crushed by their debt burden). Earlier in the year, the bond vigilantes sent a clear signal to the markets by forcing interest rates higher to keep up with the rise in inflation, and we’ll likely see more of that down the road.

      At present, interest rates have cooled as the markets have accepted the official “transitory” narrative that this was just a little blip higher in inflation, but over time, the markets will realize that the emperor is wearing no clothes, and unlike the last few decades, this time we are seeing the velocity of money in combination with the insane amount of new money creation, we are seeing rising wages, and ultimately cost-push inflation is here to stay. This is in the face of an economy that starting to show signs of cooling, so it is most similar to the 1970’s Stagflation environment.

      The 1970s were a good period for Gold where interest rates were eventually hiked to deal with rising inflation, while the economy didn’t grow as much, and despite the prevailing narratives, Gold can do just fine in a rate hiking cycle. Keep in mind that the move higher in the PMs in December 2015 moving into 2016 got kicked off once the FED announced their first hike in 8 years in December 2015.

      When real rates are still negative (interest rates – rate of inflation) then Gold can prosper, especially when more investors start seeing the cracks in the foundation that are starting to become more obvious. The market hasn’t had the full realization…. yet… and we may still a few more months of cooling in the inflation data, but the medium to longer term picture is setting up for continued sticky inflation, and when the FED finally does cry uncle and starts hiking due to persistent inflation, then it will likely be a great driver of funds into the PMs, despite the accepted narrative the rising interest rates will punish gold. If investors are losing money with real rates by buying US treasuries, because inflation is out-stripping it, then Gold suddenly looks less like a pet rock and more like a wealth preserver.

      In the near term, the discussion of the FED starting to “Taper” their $120 Billion of bond purchases through accommodative quantitative easing, is the topic of the day. If they quit buying so many bonds, the question is – who will want to buy them? China and many other countries are actually dialing back their bond purchases, and if there isn’t anyone there to buy them, then interest rates on the 10 year and 30 year treasuries will rise. That’s the whole reason the FED has been buying them to the tune of over a Trillion Dollars each year. If they hadn’t rates would already be higher, and despite their bluster, they can’t really afford to ever normalize rates again in the 4%-7% area with the balance sheet they hold.

      As for the US Dollar, there are many factors that play into it, but ultimately all currencies are in a race to the bottom, and the Dollar Index is a measure of the greenback relative to the 6 other currencies in the basket [Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Swedish Krona (SEK)]. So the question is will the other currencies sink or sail, and how will this effect the readings on the Dollar.

      While a strong dollar can lead to more deflationary pressures and be negative for commodities, and weak dollar can bolster commodities as more inflationary, the real measure of wealth and assets is in real money and the “uncurrency” of gold. The US Dollar can be a tailwind for gold when it is weak, or a headwind for gold when it is strong, but they don’t have to be inversely correlated, and can rise and fall in tandem, (and often do so.).

      Eventually my thesis is that when doubt finally creeps into these markets, and the air comes out of the tires on the expansion of the general markets and economy, and inflation stays medium-term persistent, and treasury yields are kept in a narrow range, that there will be a great migration out of bonds and into gold by institutions and pension funds, and that will be the fuel that takes the yellow metal to much higher levels.

        Aug 26, 2021 26:27 AM

        1970s antidote: My first experience with buying miners. At that time (early 70s) I think I was buying mostly South African miners. Things were going pretty good with good gains. Then overnight ….”Watergate”. Miners got trashed, I sold, my broker got charged with child abuse…and I exited the stock market. Some things never change except I don’t use brokers.

        Aug 26, 2021 26:54 AM

        Ok—-Ex…Pretty heavy response…I will have to save it and study a bit…Thank you very much…You must have gotten A+ in English literature courses…really great writer….


          Aug 26, 2021 26:30 PM

          Haha! Thanks Larry. I got a Public Relations degree in college, with minor in Business Marketing, and another minor in English. My teachers would likely cringe now at all my spelling and grammatical errors on this blog, but normally I just do stream of consciousness rants and don’t go back and read it until later. (then I cringe sometimes at how sloppy these posts get).


            Aug 26, 2021 26:09 PM

            Lol!your gremmer and spelleng are excellent.. IMO..!

    Aug 26, 2021 26:15 AM

    Excellent listen on G. Soloway. Novices on charting can learn a lot. I think the guy is an excellent teacher. FWIW:

      Aug 26, 2021 26:21 AM

      Good interview. Thanks for posting.

        Aug 26, 2021 26:48 PM

        David, you’re welcome.

    Aug 26, 2021 26:30 AM

    Starting to think this is a continuation of the Sunday night massacre. It didn’t stick the first time, Jackson Hole is going on and got to get the prices down to reflect the great wisdom of The Fed in all things.