Jordan Roy-Byrne – Technical Outlook On Gold and Gold Stocks Moving Into 2022

Shad Marquitz
December 29, 2021

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review the technical support and resistance levels he watching for gold and what his shorter and longer term outlook is for the gold mining stocks.  He discusses the importance of $1750 on the weekly charts, and the key 40 month moving average for support in gold if there is a further corrective move in the months leading up to the Fed rate hiking cycle in the spring of 2022.


Jordan is less concerned with the contrasting patterns of higher lows and lower highs on the weekly or daily charts, and outlines why the larger cup & handle pattern playing out over the last decade is the primary super-bullish pattern investors should be focused on for the larger trend. Since the pattern took 9 years to form the cup, then the 17 months of consolidation to form the handle is still very constructive for gold longer term, as long as it doesn’t break below $1570, which is the  50% retracement of the move from the major low in 2015 to the major high in 2020.


We wrap up discussing the continued underperformance of the gold stocks  relative to the fairly high levels in the metals over the course of this year, and Jordan offers some thoughts on how rising costs and compressing margins has played a role.  While he doesn’t see much reason for the miners to outperform the metals in the short term, he does see the 4-7 month period after the Fed hikes rates in mid-2022 as being a period of time where they may significantly outperform the metals.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site.

    Dec 29, 2021 29:46 PM

    Can Gold Hold The New Uptrend?
    Todd ‘Bubba’ Horwitz – Wednesday December 29, 2021

    “Although gold is getting hammered this morning, the trend has reversed to up based on yesterday’s close. We will look at this as an opportunity to buy at better prices, but buying we are doing. Our algorithm is based on the pit closing hours, which were still higher yesterday even though after-hours gold was lower.”

    “Now gold, silver and platinum are in uptrends, although this morning’s action is ugly. Of course, we are swing trading the paper metals, which means we are in for days, weeks, or months. Unless a reversal is triggered, we will hold our positions on either side. Nothing but the algorithm will change our positions.”

    “Now the big question is, will the trend last? The answer depends on your time frame and capital position. Historically, gold, like equity markets, trend higher over time. However, big moves in the short run can trigger signals in either direction. Over time, what looks like a big move today barely registers on a long-term chart.”

    Dec 29, 2021 29:47 PM

    Gold and Silver Price Forecast

    CPM Group – December 28, 2021

    Dec 29, 2021 29:55 PM

    «The Trade for 2022 Is Going to Be an Epic Rotation into Value Stocks»
    Christoph Gisiger – The Market – 26.12.2021

    “Larry McDonald, creator of «The Bear Traps Report» and New York Times best-selling author, expects a colossal shift from growth to value stocks in the face of elevated inflation. He also explains why he believes gold and emerging markets have big upside potential.”

      Dec 30, 2021 30:58 AM

      Here is an excerpt from that Christoph Gisiger & Larry McDonald piece linked above:

      > “Mr. McDonald, when it comes to the market outlook for the coming year, everything revolves around inflation. What are your thoughts on this issue?”

      >> “Everybody knows that inflation is going to come down. On a year-over-year basis, these high levels of price increases are just not sustainable. But here’s the problem: If inflation normalizes at 2.5% to 3.5%, or maybe 4%, a lot of money is in the wrong place.”
      > “What do you mean by that?”

      >> “There is a ton of money in growth stocks like Tesla and Nvidia, and what’s happened is that the tertiary parts in this segment have already given away, particularly cloud-software stocks and stocks that are owned by the ARK ETFs. Those stocks are all big deflation bets. But if you have sustained inflation the net present value of future cash flows is worth a lot less for growth stocks, and that’s why they are underperforming. Teladoc for instance, a remote healthcare provider, is down 70% off the highs. Yet, it’s still trading at 14x sales. So if inflation normalizes at a higher trajectory, it’s going to force trillions of dollars out of growth stocks into value stocks.”
      > “What does this imply for investors?”

      >> “The trade for 2022 is going to be an epic rotation into value stocks.”

    Dec 29, 2021 29:25 PM

    Folks better get ready for the possibility of disappointment in multiple asset classes for 2022. I believe the Fed might get much more aggressive then most of the “experts” think. They are scared to death of the current inflation numbers and may be more resonant then the past to throttle the economy longer and deeper.

      Dec 30, 2021 30:03 AM

      Inflation is going be so high that the U.S. Fed will be ‘boxed into a corner,’ says consultancy
      CNBC – Yesterday at 9:57 PM
      “Komal Sri-Kumar of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies says if the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t raise interest rates in March and inflation picks up, the market is “no longer going to believe [it].”

      Dec 30, 2021 30:56 AM

      Inflation is the hot topic, I recently have come to believe that inflation will not be the problem facing us but rather deflation. I have listened to a lot of commentary concerning the Fed’s money printing, but in reality the quantitative easing has been nothing more than the creation of bank reserves which in turn equals nothing more than an asset swap. Through the use of currency swaps and reverse repos the FED has been able to get away with what they do so far. The talk about raising interest rates is no more than Powell trying to calm a situation in which they have no control. The Fed doesn’t control the Dollar, The world wide dollar system is much bigger than the FED and this will dictate the events that are about to unfold.

        Dec 30, 2021 30:20 AM

        We may see some “disinflation” where the rate of inflation pulls back from 6.8% down to 5% or 4%, but that is not the same thing as “deflation”. Inflation is an increase in the money supply, and deflation is a decrease in the money supply (something that definitely is not happening).
        Despite all their currency, swaps, reverse repos, and moving assets around in their shell games, the central bank was unable to disguise the inflation any longer. As we all know, real inflation is closer to 10%-12%, but even in the CPI and PPI metrics, things had become too goosed for them to sweep inflation under the rug any more, and they are already waaaaaaay behind the curve (like usual). They’ll likely do 0.25% or 0.50% hikes from a 0 level, so even if they did a series of hikes, and got the Fed funds rate up to 1% or even 1.5%, compared with even a 4%-5% level of inflation (implying there is some disinflation into next year) those are still very negative real rates.
        Even if the stock market corrects and inflation rates come down, that is still not the same thing as deflation. There would have to be concerted policy to reduce the money supply for true deflation, and that is incredibly unlikely.

          Dec 30, 2021 30:32 AM

          I no longer can say that inflation is just an increase in the money supply. Go back to the 1980’s and tell me that. If OPEC raises the price of crude to say $100 a barrel, your costs for a box of Corn Flakes is not going to be affected? What the FED has been doing has been nothing but an asset transfer to the banks. It is up to the banks to distribute the money, which they haven’t. The banks haven’t created more money, all they create is more debt. JPM boasts of their “iron clad” balance sheet, unfortunately this doesn’t translate into an iron clad balance sheet for the majority of people dependent on the dollar as a reserve currency.

            Dec 30, 2021 30:33 PM

            I will add one final thought. Go back to when Ben Bernanke tried raising interest rates. Remember the taper tantrum? Do you really believe this time will be any different?

            Dec 30, 2021 30:45 PM

            It does also come down to the circulation of money and the velocity of money for inflation to show up in pricing, but often times people mix up the symptoms and effects of inflation and deflation (like the prices of goods or services) with the terms themselves. Simply put, an increase in the money supply is by definition inflationary, and for there to be true deflation then there must be a decrease in the money supply.
            Often times financial pundits and the main stream media conflates a stock market correction, or an inflationary depression or recession, or just a rising dollar as “deflation” which is not wholly accurate.
            Others say automation and labor efficiency can be deflationary, which is somewhat true, but those are not the same thing as deflation. As mentioned earlier up above, and many times in interviews lately, a
            falling rate of inflation is not “deflation” either, as it is disinflation. This is important because is simply means there is inflation but just not as high as the previous readings. It isn’t deflationary until it gets to 0% inflation and then heads negative inflation rates. So again, deflation is often touted, but most ways it is used are either with disinflation, a stock market correction, or recession and none of those are ture deflation. Real deflation is very rare.
            Also many economic pundits incorrectly assume that if there is an increase in the money supply, that there should be an immediate effect on prices rising, but that isn’t how things work, and there is often a delay for things to work there way through the system. Inflation can show in other financial assets or real estate or services before it finally shows up in commodities or cost inputs on goods.
            For example, people point to all the QE money created since 2009 to present and say erroneous things like “there was no inflation for the last decade after all that money printing until this year in 2021, and that was just due to supply chain issues.” That is completely wrongo in the congo on many levels, and is a misunderstanding of inflation, and that prices are merely a symptom, as our rising wages, or higher energy costs.
            There was PLENTY of inflation in asset prices from the general stock markets, to collectibles, to real estate for the last decade despite the BS government metrics in how they calculate the CPI. There was also plenty of rising inflation in the cost of services like healthcare, senior care, college tuition, insurance, landscaping or also in events like concerts, plays, sporting events for the last decade. Anyone following John Williams work at Shadowstats for the last decade knows how bogus the accepted narrative around inflation metrics has been for a long time, and how the method of calculating inflation warps and massages down the true inflation impacts on everyday people’s lives.
            To your point though, since the banks were not lending it out to individuals or small businesses at a higher velocity, most of the new money creation stayed in closer semi-closed loops in the financial markets, and didn’t really seep out into every day life quite as much. The difference with the huge stimulus bills, helicopter money to everyday citizens and all the PPP Loans to small businesses (which often used those funds for reasons other than what was intended), we saw more velocity and circulation of money, and there were dollars chasing the same amount (or less) of goods & services which became so large it finally registered in the CPI readings.

            Dec 30, 2021 30:53 PM

            As far as when Bernanke started hiking rates last time, I’m in complete agreement that the market will eventually hit a pain point and have another tantrum, and that the precious metals will get a bid in a “buy the news” fashion, just like the many other times central banks have decided to hike rates.
            The key is that tapering and tightening are 2 totally different things, and we are getting a lot of confused economists saying things like tapering is tightening…. it isn’t. Tightening is hiking rates, so not until the Fed starts hiking the Fed Funds rates is there any tightening going on or anything “hawkish.” As for the tapering, is should be mentioned that all that means is the Fed is buying less bonds than previously, but all buying of bonds under the “emergency” quantitative easing, is still easy money and “dovish.” Not until their bond buying goes to $0 have they ceased being as “dovish,” but there is nothing tight about it. Many are incorrectly conflating tapering with hawkish or tightening and that is also completely wrong.
            Now, the “taper tantrum” was the market reaction in 2013 and to a lessor extent the end of 2018 where there was short-lived corrective move in the markets where the Fed even dipped their tow in the water with removing the accommodative buying of bonds. In this case, the taper has been telegraphed for well over a year, and the market is anticipating it with a clear timeline and roadmap. What they are not pricing in at the lofty levels we see currently is how the rate hikes will affect the markets. Maybe the Fed can squeeze off a few 0.25% or 0.50% hikes for a while, but eventually the market will have another tantrum, and the Fed will not want to upset the apple cart and back off it’s policy. Where that tipping point is remains to be seen in latter 2022 or 2023.

            Dec 30, 2021 30:38 PM

            John K., OPEC can raise prices arbitrarily but only to a point. The “powers that be” would simply MUCH rather tell the masses that rising oil prices are due to something other than inflation (i.e., the central bank). Yes, there are reasons other than inflation of the money supply for price rises in parts of the economy but such legitimate sources come at the expense of prices in other parts of the economy if there is no monetary inflation. In other words, when the general price level rises it is due to inflation of the money supply and nothing else. In fact (and this is rarely talked about by even the good guys), even a STABLE price level over the last century would have also been the result of monetary inflation since the natural tendency is for prices to FALL due to gains in technology and therefore efficiency. Just look at the TV; it has fallen massively in price despite the fact that the dollar was falling at the same time! Falling prices is part of the payoff for saving sound money but few ever mention it because most wrongly believe that stable prices are the natural tendency. But it is important to understand that money supply inflation doesn’t necessarily instantly or linearly result in price inflation.
            If you want to see the truth, price things in gold and pretend that the money substitute USD doesn’t exist. You’ll see that an ounce today is worth about 24 barrels of oil just like it was in 1946. In fact, oil today is cheaper than it was for about 90% of the last 75 years if you strip away the smoke and mirrors provided by inflation and the media and schools who make sure that most never understand it.
            Don’t forget that the worst leaders before WWII (FDR, Hitler, Mussolini, Lenin, Stalin) all stole massive amounts of gold (money!) from their people (and others) for a reason.

    Dec 29, 2021 29:24 PM

    For months, GLD has been holding above a 50% Fibonacci fan support that is based on the bear market low 6 years ago and the 2020 high and there’s important speed line support just below it.

    Dec 29, 2021 29:44 PM

    Wall Street has two more days of 2021 to butt-out so we can have a positive finish to the year. I don’t think they can handle it. They might as well finish the year committing fraud to not affect their criminal reputation. Honesty, trust and fiduciary responsibility are traits beyond their grasp.

      Dec 30, 2021 30:37 AM

      Same ol intervention. Just another day while Dow and S&P have 45 degree charts upward…and lack value.

    Dec 30, 2021 30:54 AM

    Mike Konnert – Silver Will Go Crazy in 2022
    I Love Prosperity w/ Jake Ducey – Dec 28, 2021
    “In this video, we talk to Mike Konnert (CEO of Vizsla Silver, and co-founder and Partner of Inventa Capital Corp). He lays out investing in silver, hyperinflation, how the current state of affairs will affect the economy, mining stocks, gold, silver, and more.”

    Dec 30, 2021 30:32 AM

    Steve Penny – Which Stocks To Buy and When To Sell In This Silver and Gold Bull Market
    The Jay Martin Show – Dec 15, 2021
    “Jay’s guest today is Steve Penny, Publisher of the Silver Chartist. Steve left his ‘comfortable life’ as an airforce pilot to focus on his passion for silver and gold investing. This conversation is full of actionable insights for building a personal portfolio; including Steve’s favorite mining stocks, rules for selling a stock, and gold, silver, uranium and palladium price targets.”

    0:00 Intro
    2:02 Steve’s Background as an Airforce Pilot
    4:36 Gold & Silver Rabbit Hole
    9:40 Build Your War Chest
    12:25 Stock Picks & Portfolio Strategy
    17:47 Gold & Silver Price Targets

    Dec 30, 2021 30:36 AM

    Tavi Costa: Central Banks Preparing for an Inflationary Decade Ahead

    Palisades Gold Radio – Dec 16, 2021
    “Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to the show.”
    “Tavi discusses how gold prices are struggling after hitting new highs in 2020. Gold’s recent history appears to be one of consolidation. The year-over-year CPI is demonstrating that gold is keeping up with inflation and will eventually break out. Gold did front-run the inflation expectations but we should soon see a higher low. This seems to be the beginning of an inflationary decade and policymakers appear clueless regarding the impact of stimulus programs.”

    Dec 30, 2021 30:30 AM

    (NSR) Nomad Royalty – New Stream Added
    6 Minute CEO – O&M Partners – Dec 29, 2021

      Dec 30, 2021 30:49 AM

      As usual the predictions for The Price Of Gold are all over the place. It sort of makes me think of the price volatility of Bitcoin. JP Morgan predicts gold going lower next year. I think a coin toss is in order, “TAILS I WIN, HEADS YOU LOSE.!” DT

        Dec 30, 2021 30:05 AM

        This prediction from JP Morgan analysts isn’t a pleasant thought: “In its recently published 2022 outlook report, the bank expects gold prices to fall to pre-pandemic levels by the end of next year.

        “An unwinding in ultra-accommodative central bank policy will be most outright bearish for gold and silver over the course of 2022,” the analysts said. “From an average of $1,765/oz in Q1, gold prices are set to steadily decline over the course of next year to a Q4 average of $1,520/oz.”

          Dec 30, 2021 30:23 AM

          That actually encourages me that JP Morgan is bearish going into next year, as the policy with their calls on metals is the “do the opposite” strategy. If they are bearish, I get bullish, and when they get bullish, I get concerned.
          Also their logic is wack. The Fed will be tightening once they start hiking rates next spring, because they are so far behind the curve with where inflation is, which is quite bullish for Gold, as Jordan outlined in this editorial. Historically rate hiking cycles have been bullish for gold, especially when real rates were still negative. How they determined that this was going to be bearish for gold at the end of the next year with an average Q4 price of $1520 is puzzling… but again, coming from JP Morgan…. encouraging. haha!

    Dec 30, 2021 30:27 AM

    Apparently JPM has a short memory, or maybe just maybe they tell a few lies now and then, but gold was going up pre-pandemic prior to the word Covid existing, why you ask, because the Fed tried back then to “reverse” their monetary policy and raise rates and it fell flat on its head. Why would they think, with increased inflation, debt loads, and decreasing production there would be a response any different to last time if not worse. They act as though the Fed will just raise rates and accept market turmoil like 2018. Somehow the Fed always gets the benefit of the doubt though, regardless of their track record. I’ll bet that rates stay negative, the Fed reverses course after a rate hike or two and Gold continues its long term cup and handle uptrend. To each their own. All the best

      Dec 30, 2021 30:33 AM

      Agreed Mark S. Gold started moving higher in late 2018, as a result of other Fed bungling of monetary policy, and it rose from fall 2018 (Oct/Nov) through early 2020, before there even was a “pandemic”. To suggest that the manufactured fear campaign around this “pandemic” is over is as silly as them suggesting that gold is going back to it’s “pre-pandemic levels” (as if it was Covid that raised it to all time highs…. nope).
      Again, with regards to JP Morgan and their thoughts on metals, it is usually the opposite (and often times they are caught saying one thing and then trading in direct contrast to that). I see it as a net positive that Jamie and friends are bearish on the yellow metal in the latter half of 2022, as a contrarian indicator.

    Dec 30, 2021 30:09 PM

    JP Morgan, believes that they are The Wizard of Oz, played by the actor Frank Morgan, once the curtain was lifted The Great Oz was exposed as The Great Imposter. LOL! DT