Goldfinger – Lessons From 2021 & The Promise of 2022
Robert Sinn, aka Goldfinger, Publisher of Energy & Gold and Founder of Trading Lab, joins us to unpack some takeaways he got from the year-end editorial he posted today: “Lessons From 2021 & The Promise Of 2022”. We start off discussing some of ideas he felt were key for investors and some of the solid insights shared by a number of thought leaders in the sector. We discussed the significant macro drivers for gold and the commodity sector moving into 2022, and how some metals may surprise generalist investors to the upside, even within the backdrop of tightening Fed policy.
Next we shifted over to the seasonally strong period of time at the beginning of the new year, coming out of tax loss silly season, and another article Robert put out: “After A Dreadful Year It’s Time For A Santa Rally In Gold Miners.” We wrap up with getting his thoughts on how the mining stocks will fare in 2022, and what key catalysts would cause more generalist to move into the precious metals sector, emphasizing the need to watch price action in the US Dollar and Euro Dollar.
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/year-end-post-lessons-from-2021-the-promise-of-2022
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/after-a-dreadful-year-its-time-for-a-santa-rally-in-gold-miners
A number of contributors to Goldfinger’s article mentioned the positive trend of M&A activity in 2021, and it was even discussed that Brandon from Fireweed Zinc mentioned it may not be best to always accept the first offer. This proposed transaction with Gold Royalty Corp and Elemental Royalties has been very interesting to watch unfold, as it is clear ELE isn’t interested in having GROY nab them at this early stage and lower valuation, when they are just getting ready to spread their wings in 2022. One can’t blame GROY from wanting to scoop up ELE into a larger vehicle, but also can understand why ELE would not be interested at this point in the stage of their company.
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Still, it looks like Elemental is taking the right steps to protect investors in the event of a takeover.
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(ELE) (ELEMF) Elemental Royalties Adopts Shareholder Rights Plan
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“Elemental Royalties Corp. today announced that the board of directors of the Company has approved the entering into and adoption of a shareholder rights plan agreement by the Company.”
“The Rights Plan is being adopted to ensure that, in the event of a take-over bid, all shareholders of the Company will be treated fairly and will not be subject to abusive or coercive take-over strategies. Further, the Rights Plan is not intended to prevent or interfere with any action with respect to the Company that the Board determines to be in the best interests of Shareholders.”
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https://tinyurl.com/4nuafev7
After A Dreadful Year It’s Time For A Santa Rally In Gold Miners
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by @Goldfinger on 13 Dec 2021
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“After a stellar year in 2020, the precious metals mining sector has had a dreadful year in 2021; the GDXJ Junior Gold Miners ETF is down 25.2% so far in 2021 and many individual gold mining stocks are down 50% or more. Suffice to say, there isn’t much to be cheery about if you’ve been long gold miners in 2021. However, that could be about to change as bullish seasonal tailwinds begin to take hold over the next couple months:”
“Over the last 20 years gold has average about a 5% gain between mid-December and the end of February. A 5% gain from today’s price of $1788 would put gold tantalizing close to $1900, and likely trigger a sharp rally in beaten down and out of favor miners.”
“The largest gold miner in the world, Newmont (NYSE:NEM), is also sending a positive signal for the gold mining sector…”
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https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/after-a-dreadful-year-its-time-for-a-santa-rally-in-gold-miners
Here is a larger graphic of the 15 Year Seasonality Chart in Goldfinger’s article and that we discussed today in the interview, highlighting the strong tendency for Gold to climb out of the year end and into the January & February #Q1Run. At the bottom the 5 year and 30 year seasonality patterns also mirror this same seasonality trend.
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https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1grfb2s-GC%20G%20seasonal%20chart.JPG
Doc, should I bet on Michigan or Georgia tonight? Are you at the Orange Bowl? Should be a great game. Happy 2022 to all!
Gold futures closing the month and year at around $1830.
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https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures
Despite the negative sentiment in the resource sector for most of the year, many commodities and their related mining stocks still had nice runs at various points which were profitable for those properly positioned to harvest those gains. Looking back on the year there areas I would have preferred to overweight and others that should have had reduced exposure, but still overall it was a nice positive year in my portfolio of resource stocks, finishing 2021 substantially in the green. Looking forward to more green on the screen in 2022.
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Wishing the listeners and readers of the KE Report a very Happy New Year, and a very prosperous 2022!
“Buy & Hold” is a disease.
Buy and Hold is usually the wrong strategy in cyclical commodities space, or the extractive industries based around them…. be it the metals, oil/gas, agricultural soft commodities, etc…. People can point to the 1 in a 1000 stories of people buying Great Bear for $.50 and holding until $29, but most people wouldn’t have bought it at $.50 and wouldn’t have held it all the way until $29 if they had. There may be a few odd souls that did, but very few…..
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Most of the mining stocks are not “happily ever after” stories like GBR either as they are a very rare exception, and most companies have violent volatility, massive whipsaw moves, or parabolic runs higher then smashing back down. As a result, most mining stocks and most of the time should be traded. These aren’t Jessie Livermore blue chip companies in the general stock indexes, and most people that have “bought and held” over the last decade would be down (of course depending on precisely where they bought and assuming they never averaged up/down).
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The biggest bullish runs we have were the 8 months from Jan-Aug 2016, or Oct 2018 – Feb 2019, or May 2019 – Feb 2020 or late Mar 2020- Aug 2020. While someone could have arguably bought just perfectly each time and held perfectly until the top for maybe 6-8 months, even those were not perpetual buy and hold scenarios that lasted years.
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We may see a nice move from mid 2022- into 2023 that could be a 1.5 year buy and hold period, but there will likely be more gains available by selling the rips and buying the inevitable dips. For the vast majority of mining stocks and vast majority of longer time periods, investors would do much better utilizing technical analysis for entries and exits, while counterbalancing those with the fundamental news of a company.
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Not everyone is set up to be a trader, but then again, not everyone is set up to manage their own money or be a “buy and hold ole turkey” either. Investing in mining stocks is not for the faint of heart, and regardless of their strategies, most investors do a poor job of buying into weakness and selling into strength, and blame every thing and every one but their own poor investing disciplines if things turn sour on them. Rinse and repeat.
Year End Post: Lessons From 2021 & The Promise Of 2022
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by @Goldfinger on 31 Dec 2021
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“As financial market participants we can easily see what our results were, where we erred, and where we were successful. Oftentimes there are common themes in our unprofitable trades/investments, just as there are common themes in our successes. If I had to list my biggest lessons from 2021 they would be:”
– Allowing trades that are working to work for longer (being more patient in taking profits).
– Choosing health (both mental and physical) is always a good choice.
– Learning to be stingy with my time and avoiding unnecessary distractions. Whether it’s your time or my time, time is valuable. I usually know within five minutes of talking to a CEO or reading a pitch deck whether I’m interested. No need to spend more than five minutes on the ones that are clear “NOs”.
– It’s never really “different this time”.
– Don’t bet against Santa.
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“Now let’s hear from the CEO.ca community. I asked two questions (What was your biggest lesson or most memorable market experience in 2021? What is your biggest commitment or goal for 2022?)”
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https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/year-end-post-lessons-from-2021-the-promise-of-2022