Jordan Roy-Byrne – Will Gold Move Higher On Fed Rate Hikes If We Don’t See A Corrective Move First?

Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to outline why gold may not have the rally many are expecting if we don’t see a correction lower first heading into the Fed rate hiking cycle.  We discuss 3 potential paths forward for the precious metals based on whether 1) gold has one more capitulative move down prior to the rate hikes, versus 2) gold continuing to channel sideways into the rate hikes, or if 3) gold could sustain and upwards trajectory and break out higher in the event inflation readings keep coming in hotter than anticipated.


Jordan reaffirms that his expectations are that inflation has mostly peaked here, so the continuation move higher in gold seems like the least likely option, but we do dig in a bit more to the scenario where if gold trends sideways into the hikes that it will likely bottom after a few hikes and then turn higher when the market starts to anticipate in advance that the Fed will be pressured to stop the rate hike cycle and reverse course.   The most ideal scenario is still corrective move leading into this central bank policy change.


 We wrap up with thoughts on how watching the yield curve and action in bonds will be instructive for just how much wiggle room the Fed has, but note the risks they face by starting so far behind the curve and with inflation already have run so far beyond their initial expectations.

Click here to visit The Daily Gold website and keep up to date on Jordan’s technical outlook.

    Feb 09, 2022 09:50 PM

    Can The Fed Afford To Tighten Into An Economic Slowdown?
    Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (02/09/2022)

    Feb 09, 2022 09:29 PM

    Stocks should be able to at least levitate for awhile and possibly more than that.

    Feb 09, 2022 09:31 PM
    Feb 09, 2022 09:36 PM

    January CPI Preview: Inflation Likely To Reach Fresh 39-Year High

    Emily McCormick – Wed, February 9, 2022

    “U.S. inflation likely accelerated in January, with prices across a wide range of goods and services soaring further amid lingering shortages and supply chain disruptions.”

    “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Thursday morning is expected to register a 7.2% annual gain in January, according to Bloomberg consensus data. This would represent the fastest rise since 1982, as well as an acceleration from the 7.0% year-over-year increase seen in December. ”

    Feb 09, 2022 09:42 PM

    Jesse has relevent charts for the disconnect effect……………….keeping in mind that the fed just “stopping the shovelling” out the new money is a big break pad on the economy that has been so addicted to low rates and huge monetary inflation buy the fed………………supply chains IMO will take years to resolve not months, as stated by Jim Richards, so sticky high inflation setting the stage for stagflation……………. might be in the cards already……………..the fed may chose the inflation fight to get it under 4 % and somewhat throw the general economy under the bus for now…………….a we are still close to full employment……………high inflation just robs too many on mainstreet and below…………………but I can see Jordon’s take on the cap at maybe 2 to 3 hikes and a wait and see approach…………………Heck even the Euro sees an uptick in inflation……….even a heart beat there is welcome by the central bank I’ll say it again………………Central banks got what they wished for…………………….this orchestrated Ukraine drama designed to keep energy prices lofty…………will ensure the inflation card stays in play for some time to come…………….Debt to GDP has to been brought in line at any cost……………Joe ordinary will pay the price like always……………….gold and silver charts rule the day……………and when people had enough of the inflation games played by the banks…………..the charts will throw their tantrum to the upside…………until anything starts trading above it’s 18 day moving average, I’m with Doc, sit on hands, and wait…………..bottom picking can be a fools game, wasting too much time and energy !

      Feb 09, 2022 09:59 PM

      Good thoughts Larry C on inflation, stagflation, and Fed policy. The next year is going to be fascinating to watch unfold.

    Feb 09, 2022 09:53 PM

    Gold has taken back its 377 day MA for back-to-back closes…

    Feb 09, 2022 09:57 PM

    GLD needs to close about 0.5% higher tomorrow to break out.

    Feb 09, 2022 09:59 PM

    Rick Rule’s Top 3 Criteria for Finding 10-Baggers

    The Daily Gold w/ Jordan Roy-Byrne – February 07, 2022

      Feb 09, 2022 09:33 PM

      Rick Rule mentions finding a management team with a strong track record. He talks about people he knew in the past that helped him build his wealth but what about now. Who currently are the superstars in the mining business, Quinton Hennigh, Shawn Ryan, maybe Simon Ridgeway and Fipke ( but the latter two are getting on) comes to mind, but I think these days it is more about the financial companies that will back the future ten baggers, like Crescat Capital, and Alumina Capital. Finance companies that hire geologists with a track record to work with them. The mining business is now far more complex in every way and they will dominate the industry particularly in the exploration stage. DT

        Feb 09, 2022 09:17 PM

        Agreed DT on the power of solid capital groups to source teams, projects, financing, and marketing agreements.

        In addition to Crescat that you mentioned, I had posted an article I wrote last year about some of the other solid capital groups like Oxygen Capital Corp, Inventa Capital Corp, Discovery group, Metallic Group, Featherstone Capital, and Lumina Group as other examples.

      Feb 09, 2022 09:36 PM

      ok Matthew…very interesting …thank you

        Feb 09, 2022 09:18 PM

        Larry, everything looks near perfect to me. Aside from the fence-sitters, we got a ton of bears and they are very confident which makes the setup better still. They’ve got their neat plans to raise cash and/or even short the sector which is funny since none made mention of shorting months ago when the picture most warranted it. With that said, a bad day for gold tomorrow would be a timely win for the bears that could amount to something.

    Feb 09, 2022 09:00 PM

    Look at a 10 year chart of the SOXX vs any silver miner.

    Most notably, the fact that the silver miners are now substantially underperforming the SOXX since the 2020 Covid-crash is shocking.

    Feb 09, 2022 09:37 PM

    The HUI stalled at fork resistance but I bet it will get through it very soon (probably tomorrow).

    Feb 09, 2022 09:44 PM

    It’s funny how many people would rather buy $18 SILJ than sub $11 SILJ. Just look at the volume around last year’s high versus this year’s low. Not to mention the sentiment then versus today…

    Feb 09, 2022 09:53 PM

    Hi : my own gold stocks are slowly moving up . my food stocks still outpreform gold and silver stocks . See mitch mc is strongly breaking with Trumpet mouth , as his statements are seriously damiging GOP in coming elections . Cant run candidates who only do trump revenge talking points. Trump has no intellect — or no new ideas . Holly or DeSantis will probably run with a trump endorsment . My prediction is that Trump trades his endorsment inexchange for an appointed office like Ambassador to Brazil or some other country . Its true Trump would need Senate approval to be an ambassador BUT a temporary [90 day] can be had without Senate approval , and done repeatedly so in effect a pres can still get a ambsador just not a perminant one . Trump has violated the federal doucumants act by the way if you did it you would be endidted rsh

      Feb 09, 2022 09:21 PM

      Russell Hamilton – Just putting 2 lines about economic ideas as a thinly veiled attempt to then pontificate with Trump derangement syndrome is a post that really is better-suited for the politics board.

      Please put posts like this on the political threads moving forward, as we’ve had this same issue with your posts multiple times now. Posts this politically devisive are going to encourage political counter responses from other users, and we don’t want all that on the economic blogs. That is why we have political blogs every day. Thanks in advance for your understanding and moving these kinds of posts to their more appropriate place on this site.

        Feb 09, 2022 09:43 PM

        Right, this board is humming along nicely and Russell’s post would be more welcomed elsewhere.

      Feb 09, 2022 09:19 PM

      Russell, I hope you’re getting your boosters.

        Feb 10, 2022 10:36 AM

        DITTO…………. lol……….. go for it Russell……….. I can not remember when you were ever correct….. lol

    Feb 09, 2022 09:29 PM
    Feb 09, 2022 09:15 PM

    Silver Markets Continue to Grind Higher

    Christopher Lewis – FX Empire – Tue, February 8, 2022

    “Given enough time, silver does look like it is going to try to break out and fill the gap above which starts at the $23.58 level. A breach of that could have the market going to the 200 day EMA rather quickly, but I think it is going to take a certain amount of US dollar weakness to make that happen as the negative correlation between silver and the dollar is so strong.”

    Feb 09, 2022 09:21 PM

    Precious Metals Royalty Conference

    Bloor Street Capital – 02/09/2022

    Franco – Wheaton – Triple Flag – Sandstorm – Maverix – Nomad

    Feb 09, 2022 09:56 PM

    SILJ vs SOX is up about 16% since its December low. It was up as much as 36% last month.

    Feb 10, 2022 10:16 AM

    Worst inflation since 1982 … might as well forget the lipstick on this pig.

    Feb 10, 2022 10:16 AM

    (AXU) Alexco Resource: Bermingham Additions Boost Global Resources

    Feb. 09, 2022 – Taylor Dart – Seeking Alpha

    – Alexco Resource released an updated mineral resource estimate at Bermingham last month, reporting a 42% increase in indicated tonnes, and a 66% increase in inferred tonnes.

    – Notably, this increase in mineral inventory was coupled with a slight increase in silver grades, with indicated and inferred silver grades increasing 1% and 3%, respectively.

      Feb 10, 2022 10:18 AM

      (AXU) Alexco Resource Is Starting To Look Cheap And I’m Bullish Now

      Feb. 10, 2022 – Gold Panda – Seeking Alpha

      – “The company released an updated mineral resource estimate for the Bermingham deposit, which boosted its resources by 22.4 million ounces of silver.
      – Alexco is ramping up production and I expect quarterly revenues to more than double by the middle of 2022.
      – The balance sheet has been strengthened and the company should have around $25 million in cash.
      – Overall, I think that Alexco looks cheap at the moment, and that share price levels below $1.80 provide a decent buying opportunity.”

    Feb 10, 2022 10:20 AM

    (SVM) Silvercorp Metals Continues To Deliver And Looks Undervalued

    Feb. 03, 2022 – Gold Panda – Seeking Alpha

    – “The company is on track to deliver the highest production in its history and is also building a new 3,000 tonnes per day mill at Ying Mining District.
    – AISC is down to just $7.35 per ounce of silver as of Q2 FY22 while cash reserves have surpassed $140 million.
    – Yet, the market valuation of Silvercorp Metals has declined by almost 40% since June and the likely reason is low silver prices.
    – I think Silvercorp Metals should be worth at least $800 million at today’s silver prices.”

    Feb 10, 2022 10:37 AM

    Holy Smokes! Cannabis Is Lookin’ Good!

    By Sean Brodrick – Wealth Wave – February 10, 2022

      Feb 10, 2022 10:16 PM

      “Holy Smokes”. Really…..

        Feb 10, 2022 10:03 PM

        Sold some short term puts on MSOS, got assigned the stock, sold short term calls, then sold it yesterday. Made some decent money. Watching MSOS, do the same over again. It’s an okay way to employ some cash, make some money, be proactive instead of watching stocks go up and down.

    Feb 10, 2022 10:48 AM

    (ITR) (ITRG) Integra Completes Pre-Feasibility Study for Delamar Project With Average Annual Production of 163,000 Oz Au Eq for the First 8 Yrs, and Demonstrates Project Optionality With Phased Development Approach

    – 9 Feb 2022

    Feb 10, 2022 10:21 AM

    the dxy dollar reversal and inflation scare should have gold rocking rather than crawling it’s way possiblly to january highs. The gold producers especially bellweathers like aem nem are negative and need a reversal to cheer the bulls up.
    All in all more of the same, let’s see what the end o day/week brings.
    Coventional markets keeping hopes alive.

    Feb 10, 2022 10:23 AM

    Good move in Nobel Resources. Still early play and speculative.

    Theralase continuing its slow walk up before news…

    Feb 10, 2022 10:09 AM

    Nice call DOC with BNGO

    Feb 10, 2022 10:10 AM

    This is a TSX Venture vs Gold chart, It may be signaling a stealth breakout IMHO. I am very bullish the PMs as the monetary side of silver has been ignored too long and is due for excitement sometime this year, maybe even a few times.

    Feb 10, 2022 10:17 AM

    Just a heads up Ex for trading the Wolfster is bitching portfolio….I’m starting to vent a little on ceo about black wolf….

      Feb 10, 2022 10:19 AM

      Also totally forgot that QH has referenced Blackwolfs niblack property in the past year and mentioned how impressed he was and what potential it has. Just saying. 😏

    Feb 10, 2022 10:11 PM

    Well, as I mentioned yesterday, a drop today “would be a timely win for the bears that could amount to something.”
    It’s too soon to tell and there’s still plenty of reason for bullish optimism but today was not ideal.
    GLD confirmed the resistance line that I shared yesterday when it reversed there this morning:

    Feb 10, 2022 10:33 PM

    Silver finished above 61.8% Fibonacci fan resistance and gave a new MACD buy signal. Let’s see if it can rise for the 6th day in a row.