Jordan Roy-Byrne – Is This Corrective Move In Precious Metals The Last Chance To Purchase Quality Junior Mining Stocks Before A Vertical Move Higher?
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review shorter-term and longer-term support and resistance levels in the precious metals sector, and why he’s very encouraged by the recent strength in the mining stocks. While the corrective move down in gold did briefly fill that breakaway gap level in gold, in general the yellow metal has held above key $1900 support and the $1920 support on weekly charts, and Jordan would be surprised to see a pullback below $1880 support. We also reviewed the medium-term $2,500 price projection coming out of the smaller cup & handle from August of 2020 to March of 2022, and the longer term $3000-$4000 gold price projection on the longer-term decade long cup and handle pattern that he believes will achieve those targets by 2024.
Next we moved over to silver and that while the technical outlook isn’t quite as bullish as gold, and it has more overhead resistance levels to clear at $28 and that it may take gold breaking out to a new all time high to give silver the push to get over the $30 resistance level and begin the path to $50.
We wrap up with a discussion on the PM mining stocks and the very bullish divergence seen in GDX and GDXJ relative to the underlying gold price, where they bullishly did not fill their breakaway gaps, and over the last few weeks have more white candles and less black candles during a sector correction than gold and silver have had. Jordan employed resource investors to consider where the miners will be trading if gold and silver do break out to new all-time highs over the next 12 months, and believes this corrective move in the PMs may be the last chance to really get quality junior mining stocks cheap. Jordan is focused on positioning in silver exploration stocks and growth-oriented gold producers and developers, with optionality to rising prices.
Click here to visit The Daily Gold website and keep up to date on Jordan’s technical outlook.
A Paradigm Shift in Global Finance, Gold, Silver, Uranium, and Grains Is Now Underway
by: David Smith – Money Metals News – March 21st, 2022
“Consider these data points:”
– The West’s freezing of Russian Central Bank’s $600b in assets is a first.
– Exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT payment system of international trade.
– Breakdown of the petrodollar system for oil purchases to allow yuan and gold.
– Europe’s largest grain exporter, Hungary, ceasing all exports effective immediately.
– Critical metals sources (REEs, copper, uranium, nickel, etc.) in limbo.
– Cancellation of many billions, if not trillions of dollars in international contracts.
– Canada freezing accounts of anyone contributing even $40 to an unapproved cause.
– A gas supply cutoff from Nordstream 1 could bring German industry to a standstill.
– The U.S. facing its highest inflation rates in 40 years.
– The inevitable global drive toward “paperless” digital money and total privacy loss.
– Gold and silver retail supply sources and premiums stressed as never before.
– Most uranium and its processing coming from Kazakhstan and Russia respectively.
“Anyone reading the above can list an additional dozen. The point being that the few remaining assumptions of our money being safe, accessible, and utilizable as we see fit have been shattered.”
“The financial markets, including precious metals, are in sea change mode. Looking to the past is not going to enable you to thrive and survive facing tomorrow’s challenges. A glimpse of what to expect taken intraday from the Energies and Metals market action can be seen nearby:”
When Will Juniors Outperform Gold Miners
Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA – The Daily Gold – March 22, 2022
“In this video we analyze the performance of bigger juniors (GDXJ) against Gold. We also delve into history following the 2005 and 2009 breakouts.”
https://thedailygold.com/video-when-will-juniors-outperform-gold-miners/
I like to hear from Doc.
Rumor has it that Doc is on his way to Kiev with Doctors Without Borders.
A really fine show and I’m looking forward to follow up comments from Matthew, Doc, et.al.
Thanks Terry. Yes, Jordan was very on point in today’s interview, and the discussion on which miners he was positioned in towards the end really resonated with his years of experience trading, and in how bull markets unfold in the mining stocks.
I couldn’t agree more with Jordan’s bullishness and the way he intends to play the setup. The silver juniors are going to perform like few living people have ever seen. When it mattered (months ago), I said the big picture looked better than it has in decades and now it’s even better because of recent action. I disagree with Jordan’s view that it will be 3-4 months before gold breaks out to new highs. I think it will happen in April or May but we agree that those who haven’t bought their miners should do so now our differences on gold’s timing shouldn’t mean much regardless of who turns out to be right.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=t2785955968c&r=1648097086242&cmd=print
There are 6 trading days left this month and if silver can finish at 26 or higher, I bet it will get moving.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p74225477556&a=1130214827&r=1648097690580&cmd=print
It’s always good to get your technical outlook Matthew, and thanks for the charts you post as well.
If Gold was to start moving higher in April or May as you mentioned, that would be great.
We just heard from Doc over on the Elemental Royalties blog, where he commented on the Fed’s potential to get more aggressive with their rate hikes moving forward.
I’ve reached out to him to see about recording something though later in the week.
Impact Silver(IPT) will give a conference call reviewing full year 2021 results on
http://www.impactsilver.com
March 25 for the conference call
This is the most bullish I have ever heard Jordan. My problem is picking cheap silver juniors… wishing it was 2015 again!
Agreed Jetty. This is the most bullish I remember Jordan being in a few years, but the technical points he makes are spot on.
As for cheap silver explorers, I’d submit that relatively speaking, and in relation to where things will be priced when silver does break the $30 overhead resistance, all of the silver explorers are still pretty cheap.
Now most of the quality exploration companies doing solid work on their drill campaigns have already started to run over the last 2 years (like Vizsla, Silver Tiger, Eloro, Dolly Varden, Defiance, Discovery Silver, Summa Silver, Blackrock Silver, Abrasilver, etc…) , but there are still some underappreciated silver explorers out there that haven’t moved yet (like Metallic Minerals, Silver Hammer, GR Silver, Reyna Silver, Aftermath Silver, Kuya Silver, etc…). In addition most of the silver optionality plays (like Southern Silver, Kootenay, Brixton, Silver One, Silver Elephant, Orex, etc…) haven’t really started moving yet, so they are still on the clearance rack.
Silver Tiger Metals (SLVR-TSXV)- Drilling Discovers Sooy Vein continuation with impressive grade thickness
March 22, 2022 – Stifel GMP
“Silver Tiger announced it has discovered the continuation of the Sooy vein north of an offset structure where historic miners stopped 100 years ago. The headline hits of 2,239 g/t AgEq over 9.2m and 1,024g/t AgEq over 1.5m are both within 50m of surface. As exploration continues apace we expect additional drill results of this tenor and additional discoveries to drive the stock higher. We also look forward to the inaugural high grade vein resource (expected near year-end) as a major catalyst for the stock. SLVR trades at a spot P/NAV of just 0.38x, well below its two-year high of 0.57x and our target of 0.90x. We maintain our Buy rating and C$1.55/sh target price and continue to view Silver Tiger as the stock with the best ‘blue sky exploration potential’ within our coverage universe.”
I’m in a good portion of these. Have been trading around & averaging down. AUNFF looking cheap down here
Yeah, there are plenty of silver exploration stocks to pick from and all should do well, but just to varying degrees. It’s hard to know in advance with the explorers as they are so newsflow and drill result dependent to really get investors interested and momentum going, but one thing to consider is if they have defined resources in place (as those ounces will get revalued higher over time), whereas a grassroots discovery drill play doesn’t have any bankable ounces yet. The other thing to consider is where the market caps are relative to peers, which takes into account share price (x) shares outstanding. Some exploration companies (much more so in gold than silver) have very rich valuations already, where as there are some explorers priced for failure when one considers their land package of properties, drill results to date & resource size, cash on hand, etc…
Now as for Aurcana, it is technically a producer now, not an explorer or even a developer anymore, although it’s had a series of challenges to overcome getting into commercial production, with the issues underground, getting access now with one area closed and under review and planning, and they’ve had to raise capital 2 more times than investors were expecting due to the delays on getting production up to where it was projected to be, and this pissed a lot of investors off from the story. I see them more as a fixer upper and turn around story right now, but unfortunately they didn’t get liftoff as planned and fell more into the category of Americas Gold and Silver with issues getting Relief Canyon going, Pure Gold with issues getting their PureGold Mine going, and McEwen Mining with all their challenges getting multiple mines going over the last 2 years. I’m actually positioned with USAS, PGM, and MUX as turnaround stories and was adding them back last Aug/Sep & Dec and even topped them up earlier this year. With AUN, I jettisoned them from the portfolio as a tax loss last year, and I’m still watching to see that they have at least cleared the bottle necks, and if they are going to get off the mat without any more capital raises, but then I plan on getting back in.
Thanks Ex for all the great ideas. I’ve now completed my purchasing of silver juniors. My largest position is actually PSLV. I really don’t think you can go wrong with the physical commodity. If it goes down, who cares, buy more!
Sounds good Jetty, and may your positions be prosperous in the markets to come. Yes, agreed that stacking up some positions in the physical through PSLV (much preferred over SLV), is another great way to average into a larger silver exposure.
Good call Jordan …. account up +6.14%. Bought back Volcanic Gold at open and now up. Great interview Shad.
Thanks Lakedweller2. Looks like we are getting a mildly green day today, but gold and silver are trending up nicely, with Gold at $1960 and Silver up to $26. I’d have expected more of a pop in the miners thus far, but they’ve been doing pretty good lately even when the metals were pulling back more.
Good trading to you sir!
Yeah I see the same Ex. Slight up but compared to PM price not as much as I’d like to see but we are all greedy right???😉
Not so much greedy as expecting the mining stocks to outperform the metals, so when the metals make a big move and the miners don’t really track it with solid outperformance, then it’s a bit of a bummer. Still, the miners have been outperforming the metals overall lately, which has been quite encouraging. Earlier in the week the miners were up while the metals were trending lower, so it will all balance out in the wash.
This is what I have been doing over the last couple of weeks whether it is good or bad, as I already did it:
Back into Southern Silver
Reduced Kootenay to a medium position to contribute to the buy back of Volcanic
Increased Libero
Back into Granite Creek
Back into Bitterroot
Added to Big Ridge
Reduced Group Ten on another pull back to the norm
Took profits again on Copper Lake which also contributed to Volcanic
Took a few shares from Theralse for the Volcanic buy back
Adjusted Petrus up and NG Energy and CGX whereby Petrus has most $ investment of 3
Sold Impact for 20% tax loss
Rounded up shares of Millennial
Added a small amount to Rugby
Reduced Nobel to a core position and took tax loss on remainder
Other than that … just complaining
Almost forgot: Sold about 40% of my Great Bear Royalties Shares
Added to Banyan as I saw Doc Jones back in.
Lakedweller2, thanks for sharing some of your trades, from trims to adds, and portfolio management.
Looks like you are adding to some Copper exposure, but sad to hear you reducing Group Ten and selling Impact as those are 2 of my personal favorites. On Volcanic, I’m still waiting to hear back from Simon on if the authorities in Guatemala have punished the people that lit up their drill rig on fire. I want to see resolution of that before doing any buying in VG, and hopefully we can get an update soon in that regard.
I moved less than 20% of Group Ten but that loss in Impact was hard to resist since it was less than a month and my cap gains were mounting while my account declining. I will probably get those few G10 back near term and see where Impact is in 30 days. It is not like anything happens in my account. If it goes up in meantime maybe I won’t care.
Edit: volcanic: price got too good. We will see.
Yeah, understood on taking the tax loss and then re-examining again after 30 days. Sometimes yhat is the best route forward to wash out other gains, and then just get repositioned after the wash sale.
I finally pulled the trigger on Kootenay earlier today, after taking a tax loss on it last year. There are 2 others I’m considering blowing out for tax losses myself.
Added more on Volcanic drop.
Topped off Libero.
Is it OK to say this? B2Gold has got to be the worst mid/large miner. The thing just doesn’t move, it’s like it doesn’t know it’s a gold-miner.
Yeah, I’ve never been positioned in B2Gold as it has been sluggish in the past compared to other companies, but they have a lot of great assets. Having said that, I am heavily positioned in Calibre, that peeled off some great non-core assets from B2Gold and have started to really grow things in Nicaragua.
With B2Gold holding 25% of Calibre, they’ve got to be happy with how things have proceeded with CXB.
(see page 21)
End of Day before after markets.
Removing Emo as usual, I had 50% up and 50% down for a negative $1500.
It was good day as Emo and half my others did well. Tomorrow it will be a different half.
I wonder if it was buying Volcanic or adding to Libero that got the perfect non-emo split of 50/50. Maybe it was the add I did to Granite Creek in the last hour. Maybe putting a BBQ grill together mid day. It’s got to be something significant.
I have been adding to copper as I figure those investors that hit PMs will want a new car soon as I doubt they know how to wash one or fix them to make them last. They will have to pay more for my copper.
Yeah the supply/demand fundamentals for Copper over the next few years are fantastic.
Libero Copper and Granite Creek are two that I hold as well.
After Gold held the line for yesterdays close back to that $1921 support level, it’s nice to have seen the pop back up in the yellow metal prices in overseas trading last night, and then the follow through rally today with futures prices currently back up to $1945.
Silver is back up to $25.33; Platinum is back up to $1026, and Palladium is back up to $2539.
Looking good, and the mining stocks are looking even better, as Jordan noted in the interview above.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures