Dave Erfle – The Present Divergence Between Senior And Junior Precious Metals Mining Stocks

Dave Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky, joins us to review the continued divergence in the performance of the larger senior precious metals miners from the junior mining stocks, and how he is navigating these markets.   We note how the mining stocks have positively diverged somewhat from the metals over the last few weeks, and that compared to the rough Q1 that most general US equities markets had that gold being up 6% in the first quarter, and GDX and GDXJ making new 52 weeks highs were still constructive for the longer term trend in motion.


GDX and GDXJ appear to be bullishly consolidating in symmetrical triangle patterns working off overbought conditions, and that this recent corrective move is healthy for the longer term for the PM sector.   However, the point was raised that the junior mining stocks have still vastly underperformed the moves in the underlying metals and when compared to the senior producers, and this has many investors frustrated at their lagging performance.   We review that generalist capital flows usually hit the producers and royalty companies first, before eventually working down the risk curve into the junior developers and explorers, but debate whether the trends in passive ETF investing and many US platforms that can’t access OTC tickers may keep more funds into those companies held by ETFs or with big board US exchange listings.


Dave is still very constructive on the whole sector, including the junior mining stocks, and notes that we had the double whammy last year of sideways to down consolidating metals prices, with rising input costs due to inflation, keeping a lid on the producing companies, and that this affected the interest from generalist investors in the sector.  He feels that now with margins expanding again, and when we see another uptick in mergers and acquisitions that these may be data points that get more generalists rotating over to the gold and silver stocks once again.   We wrap up the importance of being a stock picker in these current conditions, and Dave shares the kinds of resource-stage companies that have his interest.



Click here to visit the Junior Miner junky website to learn more about Dave’s newsletter.

    Apr 05, 2022 05:32 PM

    Gold Remains Stuck Below $1935 As Traders Wait For Catalysts

    Vladimir Zernov – FX Empire – Mon, April 4, 2022

    “Gold remains range-bound as Treasury yields pull back from recent highs.”

    “Rising geopolitical tensions provide additional support to gold.”

    “A move above the resistance at $1935 will open the way to another test of the resistance at $1950.”

      Apr 05, 2022 05:34 PM

      Gold Prices Consolidate as the Dollar and Yields Break Out

      David Becker – FX Empire – Tue, April 5, 2022

      “Gold prices moved lower and remained rangebound. The dollar increased, breaking out against most major currencies as yields rallied. The 10-year yield and the 2-year yield surged higher following Fed Brainard’s comments that policy tightening would include a speedy reduction in the balance sheet.”

      “Gold moved lower but remained rangebound. Prices remain below short-term resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,935. Support is seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,901. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal.”

    Apr 05, 2022 05:39 PM

    This is one of those “well… duh…” stating the obvious articles, but it is interesting that the main stream financial media is just now realizing MMT is inflationary…. Of course it is, money creation is by definition inflationary. S.M.H….


    ‘Verdict Is In’ On Modern Monetary Theory, Strategist Says

    Ihsaan Fanusie – Tue, April 5, 2022

    “Tick off a loss for the modern monetary theorists amid rising inflation,” says InfraCap Founder and CEO Jay Hatfield.

    “Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a macroeconomic lens which prescribes that monetarily sovereign countries like the U.S. are unaffected by financial constraints as long as they control their currencies. Under MMT, the risk of inflation is considered minimal as governments that fully control their fiat currencies are believed to be able to control price levels, provided they can meet consumer demand.”

    “The past few months have seen inflation skyrocket to 40-year highs, with the latest consumer price index report showing an annual price increase of almost 8%.”

      Apr 05, 2022 05:46 PM

      speaking of inflation… We’ve been saying for over a year that one of the things that really hurts global citizens and will destabilize existing systems faster than anything is when the price of energy and food go up. That is when people take to the streets. This is not looking good…


      Peru Imposes, Then Withdraws Curfew To Quell Price Protests

      By Franklin Briceno – Associated Press – April 5, 2022

      “Peruvian President Pedro Castillo has lifted a curfew he had decreed less than a day earlier in the country’s capital and its main port in a bid to quell sometimes violent protests over rising fuel and food prices…”

    Apr 05, 2022 05:12 PM

    I counted up my Juniors today and I had 1007. I sold 6 of them so I expect a run-up tomorrow. Might have to narrow them a little more and put everything in Barrick. 🙂

      Apr 05, 2022 05:45 PM

      Good one Lakedweller2, and here I was thinking I had too many mining stocks in my portfolio. Goodness gracious 1000 positions… you could start your own Crescat Capital with that collection. Haha!

        Apr 06, 2022 06:21 AM

        Didn’t work. 500 up and 501 down. Should have sold 7…:) Just another day.

        Apr 06, 2022 06:51 AM

        1000 ways to lose cash……… Laker, should write a book……… lol……. 🙂
        or The Mind is a Dangerous Thing To Lose

          Apr 06, 2022 06:43 AM

          Sounds tempting but they would just short the book.

            Apr 06, 2022 06:00 AM

            Just buy some puts ……… ahead of the release……… 🙂

      Apr 06, 2022 06:50 AM

      The real question is how are the 6 that you sold doing????…. Murphy’s Law taking effect perhaps. 😏

        Apr 06, 2022 06:24 PM

        The 6 were “dogs” like Westhaven. 🙂

      Apr 06, 2022 06:11 AM

      Hi Lakedweller, Does Barrick have a mine! Just Testing! LOL! DT

        Apr 06, 2022 06:30 PM

        Barrick a miner ? I thought they were an investment Bank.

    Apr 06, 2022 06:17 AM
      Apr 06, 2022 06:41 AM

      Update: “Continuation or Top?”
      (FOMC Minutes – 14:00 today.)

        Apr 06, 2022 06:44 AM

        Back to : Continuation :
        Likely QE shrinkage.
        Possible .50 next.

    Apr 06, 2022 06:40 AM

    Since topping in Q3 2020, silver has been capped by a falling fork resistance that is based on the 1980 high, the 1991 low, and the 2011 high. I’m betting this massive breakout will happen this quarter and probably this month.

      Apr 06, 2022 06:37 AM
      Apr 06, 2022 06:48 AM

      I tapped on my screen this morning to make sure Big Ridge wasn’t stuck from some other year. It being only one of the 15% of stocks being positive I read the drill results to see why the news was not being sold. A most confusing day to say the least.

      Apr 06, 2022 06:08 PM

      Hey guys, we posted an interview with Mike from Big Ridge Gold earlier today, so make sure to check it and leave any comments there that are on your mind with BRAU. Cheers!

    Apr 06, 2022 06:43 AM

    Platinum down to 951. , 20% over last 3 weeks. Back to Jan 2022 prices.

    Group ten down 4.75% , sibanye is flat

    Ideas to take advantage of PT lower price?

      Apr 06, 2022 06:58 AM

      Platinum sure looks cheap at $951……..
      I would buy, if I did not already own…..
      But, kind of been dead money for awhile … so who knows when it , will break
      I was looking for a double , two years ago…. with palladium being over priced, (imo)
      compared to platinum…. speaking historically.
      Not investment advice, and sure not worldly wisdom advice…. 🙂

      Apr 06, 2022 06:16 PM

      Hi aghead. I’m a big fan of (PGE) Group Ten that you mentioned, as my largest exposure to Palladium Platinum & Rhodium, in addition to all the Nickel, Copper, Cobalt, and Gold.

      Another PGM play I’m invested in is (GENM) Generation Mining, who is moving ahead with development of their Canadian deposit. We also just had (NAM) New Age Metals on the show last week, that has 2 different PGM projects going through exploration and development that show promise. I’m considering getting back in NAM again, and was positioned in it from 2020 into early 2021.

      The other way I play the PGM space is with 2 tailings processors; (SLP.L) (SAPLF) Sylvania Platinum and (JLP.L) (JUBPF) Jubilee Metals that give one more pure exposure to platinum, palladium, and some chrome as well.

      There are a few other ways to play the PGMs like Clean Air Metals, Grid Metals, Transition Metals, Canadian Palladium, and Platinum Group Metals, as a few other ideas.

        Apr 06, 2022 06:06 PM

        I came out of the day with less than a 1% loss, Yeah!;-) Going into tomorrow with 15% cash and will be looking at PGE and BRAU and a couple others. SCZ may head to the lower bolly, not sure, IMHO only. I’ll listen to the BRAU interview tonight, thanks Ex. I own all three of the above stocks already.

          Apr 06, 2022 06:57 PM

          Thanks Dan, and good stocks there. Yeah, I’ve had very nice runs in both Group Ten and Santacruz Silver (SCZ) aka scuzzy. Ha! Big Ridge is under consideration at the present, but it’s another Doc Jones pick.

          I ended up the day down 6/10ths of a percent, so not too bad overall, but yesterday was a bit brutal, down about 2.4%, so down 3% in the last 2 days overall.

        Apr 06, 2022 06:08 PM

        Santa Cruz, SCZ, I call it scuzzy…

      Apr 06, 2022 06:41 PM

      Platinum (BullionVault spot)
      December low 898.42
      March high 1183.59
      78.6% = 959.45
      Now 957.36