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Sean Brodrick – The Value Sector, Precious Metals, Oil, Lithium, Uranium, Agricultural Commodities, and Fertilizers

Sean Brodrick, Natural Resource Analyst at Weiss Ratings and publisher of Wealth Wave, joins us to focus on a range of different commodities and market sectors. We start off by discussing the pullback in the precious metals sector and why he feels that while some stocks are presenting interesting valuations, that there still may be lower to fall.  We discuss why the safe havens are not really getting as much traction, in the overall theme of the rotation out of growth and into value this year.   Sean points out that most investors are seeking the refuge of sectors like the utilities or high-yield dividend paying commodities.  In addition there have been opportunities to short the general markets, growth sectors, and even the gold stocks utilizing  inverse ETFs to hedge long positions.

 

We then pivot over the energy sector where Sean notes he pulled some profits in oil and nat gas plays to lock in gains and raise more cash, but still likes this sector as part of the value space.   The discussion then turned to the energy metals with the outlook on the lithium sector and uranium sector, where despite being stopped out of some positions, he is still very bullish on the EV and global electrification themes moving forward.  Sean is also still rather constructive on the agricultural commodities and fertilizers and feels that food will remain in focus.   We wrap up with what actions Sean is taking in his portfolio during pullbacks in the PMs and other sectors; and why he feels hard assets are still the place to be instead of the digital assets like Bitcoin and NFTs that were all the rage the last 2 years.

 

 

Click here to visit the Wealth Wave website and keep up to date with what Sean is investing in.

Discussion
56 Comments
    May 10, 2022 10:31 PM

    Bear Funds Flex Muscles On Copper As Macro Outlook Darkens

    Reuters | May 10, 2022

    “Hedge funds are turning increasingly bearish on the copper market amid mounting evidence that global manufacturing activity is starting to stall.”

    “Bears now outnumber bulls on the CME copper contract for the first time since May 2020, when the copper price was just starting to recover from the first wave of covid-19 lockdowns.”

    https://www.mining.com/web/column-bear-funds-flex-muscles-on-copper-as-macro-outlook-darkens/

    Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:34 PM

      Barrick Gold eyes more copper assets in Africa

      Cecilia Jamasmie | May 10, 2022

      “Barrick Gold (TSX:ABX)(NYSE:GOLD) wants to add more copper assets to its African portfolio due to a looming deficit and high prices for the industrial metal, which is also a key component in the making of electric vehicles (EVs) and vital to the renewables sector.”

      https://www.mining.com/barrick-gold-eyes-more-copper-assets-in-africa/

      Reply
        May 10, 2022 10:48 PM

        Vancouver Junior Publishes Impressive Copper-Silver Resource

        Streetwise Reports (5/9/22)

        “Metallic Minerals Corp. (MMG:TSX.V; MMNGF:OTCQB) La Plata copper-silver porphyry project in Colorado has its first resource estimate, and it will give copper-hungry companies seeking assets something to chew on…”

        “The National Instrument 43-101-compliant La Plata resource rings in at 889 million lbs copper and 14.975 million ounces silver (Moz Ag) in a constrained model containing 115.7 million inferred tonnes at an average grade of 0.39% copper-equivalent (CuEq).”

        https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2022/05/09/vancouver-junior-publishes-impressive-copper-silver-resource.html

        Reply
        May 10, 2022 10:17 PM

        They could probably get MUX pretty cheap right now, with a few million lbs. of copper 3000 meters up in the Andes, on the Chilean border and dump their high priced gold mines. McEwen may have had enough of the mining business at this point and getting ready to throw in the towel.

        Reply
          May 10, 2022 10:58 PM

          Yeah, MUX does have a nice copper asset in Los Azules, and the plan is to spin it out to work on getting better value or by monetizing that asset in a sale to a larger producer. I actually just added to my McEwen Mining position yesterday into the carnage, but expect they had another rough quarter.

          Reply
    May 10, 2022 10:38 PM

    Elon Musk Says Tesla Open To Buying A Mining Company

    Reuters | May 10, 2022

    https://www.mining.com/web/elon-musk-says-tesla-open-to-buying-a-mining-company/

    Reply
    May 10, 2022 10:12 PM

    War, Gold, & Rates: Key Tactics Now

    Stewart Thomson – May 10 2022

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_051022.html

    Reply
    May 10, 2022 10:15 PM

    Klaus S. Says ( pay attention Sean) “ you’ll own nothing and be happy.”

    Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:37 PM

      Klaus Schwab is the very definition of a nefarious global elitist, and “The Great Reset” the WEF and their cronies so desperately want, is the kind of tyranny people should be out in the streets protesting…

      Once the freedoms are gone… they are gone for good. Most of mind-numb masses will likely cheer for the end of their liberties, and are oblivious to the new world order falling into place, in the name of virtue signaling the latest wokest trends. All that has happened is Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030 have simply been supplanted by “The Great Reset” movement, but it’s the same grim technocratically controlled future they envision, and the governments dictating what is good for everybody and the planet. It’s disgusting really, but still being met with open arms by brain-dead zombie supporters.

      ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      Klaus Schwab says – You will Own Nothing in 10 years

      1) “You’ll own nothing” — And “you’ll be happy about it.”
      2) “The U.S. won’t be the world’s leading superpower”
      3) “You won’t die waiting for an organ donor” — They will be made by 3D printers
      4) “You’ll eat much less meat” — Meat will be “an occasional treat, not a staple, for the good of the environment and our health.”
      5) “A billion people will be displaced by climate change” – Soros’ Open Borders
      6) “Polluters will have to pay to emit carbon dioxide” – “There will be a global price on carbon. This will help make fossil fuels history”
      7) “You could be preparing to go to Mars” — Scientists “will have worked out how to keep you healthy in space.”
      8) “Western values will have been tested to the breaking point.”

      https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/conspiracy/klaus-schwab-says-you-will-own-nothing-in-10-years/

      Reply
        May 10, 2022 10:51 PM

        All that is coming is the Anti-christ. What will gold & silver buy you then?

        Reply
    May 10, 2022 10:19 PM

    Well, (IPT) Impact Silver traded down to $0.33 today for the close. This was a level some people have been watching, in addition to Glen’s $0.31 call from a while back that looks quite possible from here.

    I’d be curious to get anyone’s thoughts on if this zone from $0.33 – $0.31 could be where they’d anticipate a bounce. I considered adding more today, but likely will if we see $0.33 again or anything lower tomorrow. Anyone else interested in adding more Impact Silver at these prices?

    Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:24 PM

      I’m keeping a close eye on it, reduce my average price.

      Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:29 PM

      Hi ex,

      My buy orders are at .29 and .31 long term eye on that as you stated. I never ever put in a buy order on even numbers. Yes I 100% expect a bounce from there and I would personally hope it’s the real deal bounce but I’m not married to anything. If the bounce reverses like 96% of this board expects then I don’t even want to begin to think we’re impact would head. Next buy order would have it all the way down to .21 – .19.. let’s not even go there for now. One step at a time.

      What is your thinking ex regarding this environment? Do you think we are close to a major turn or a breakout or more so In the fall?

      Reply
        May 10, 2022 10:55 PM

        Thanks Glenfidish. Yeah, I’m looking to add a bit more IPT somewhere down here and anything in the low $0.30’s seems like good value and if we see $0.32 or $0.31 tomorrow, then I’ll likely go for it.

        In general, I’m concerned about Silver down here, and have stated a few times that I really did not want to see Silver break below the $21.41 level (which had held a few times intraday last year as support). We just saw silver below there in afterhours trading this eve, and hopefully we get a bounce out of the dangerzone tomorrow on the new CPI number. My concern would be a trap door opening down to $19 should that level fail, which would drag silver stocks down even further. We’ll see how it goes tomorrow, but if we bounce from here, I’d expect a relief rally for a little bit, even if there is one more down-thrust to this corrective leg into the summer.

        In the medium term I’m looking for Gold to bottom above $1780 over the summer (July ?), and possibly get more upside momentum going by August. This should coincide with the Fed having done 1-2 more 50 basis point hikes and then start running into more pushback from the general markets. In my opinion it should be a boon to the precious metals when the Fed has to finally pause their hikes or start hinting at reversing course later this year.

        Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:33 PM

      Hi Ex, tomorrow morning when they release The CPI figures, I’m betting the numbers will be manipulated to help stop the run on the markets, I’m guessing it will only be temporary because Mr. Market will sniff out the correction. The CPI numbers haven’t really had time to change due to the timeline of when the rate hikes were initiated. But manipulation is always the flavor of the day, the sheeple will fall in line with the government narrative. LOL! Some things never change. DT

      Reply
        May 10, 2022 10:02 PM

        Yeah DT, it is going to be interesting to see where the CPI number comes in tomorrow, how the market reacts to this anticipating what it may mean for the rate of change in inflation and potential Fed policy, and if it could present a short-term reversal of trends in market direction.

        I do think you had a smart plan in pulling more profits and trades last Thursday and Friday to raise more cash, and do feel the environment is more ripe for a rollover in the US general equities markets in the next few months. My question is if we are going to see more of a dead cat bounce first in the main stock markets to encourage traders to think the worst is then behind them, and then… possibly see another more substantial corrective move to the downside from there. It’s not clear if the PM sector would be able to diverge and hold it’s ground or march higher in that kind of scenario, or if everything would just get flushed down the drain. Very uncertain times for sure.

        Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:48 PM

      I do think we will start a bounce on Thursday or Friday for the whole sector but IPT could lead by a day so maybe it drops tomorrow and then reverses. There’s a case to be made for .27 and .25 but probably not tomorrow. These are incredible values and not the start of a new bear market. The volume since the March high has been unimpressive because of that fact.
      I’m more interested in the weekly close but here’s a daily chart that shows how a repeat of August’s action relative to the fork support would give us .29 or so…
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p70969259709&a=1069200136

      Reply
        May 10, 2022 10:09 PM

        Thanks for that technical outlook and chart Matthew, and yes looking to see if tomorrow could be at least a short-term bottom and if IPT may be an early mover in a trend change. Man if Impact got down to $0.27 or $0.25 that would be lower than expected, but an amazing entry point for those not in position yet. I’d prefer not to see a drawdown that low though and would be happy to see anything above $0.30 hold in the near-term.

        Reply
          May 10, 2022 10:51 PM

          A lot of these cheap tiny caps have few shareholders left that are willing to sell this action and that’s a good sign. If it were a truly bearish pullback, smart money would be doing enough selling to get our attention. In April and May (so far), about 4% of the outstanding shares have changed hands (fewer than 4% if we use the fully diluted count). At the 2020 top of July-August 2020, more like 25% of the float changed hands. And of course maybe volume will appear on a bigger plunge but it’s still impressive that so few shares have traded despite the size of the drop so far.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27425137942&a=570417673&r=1652247793702&cmd=print

          Reply
            May 10, 2022 10:21 PM

            That’s a solid point about most of the available sellers being exhausted at this point, and the lower volumes we are seeing to pull many of these tiny junior down lower in price. This does seem like a capitulation move that is getting somewhat overextended now, but sometimes selling begets more selling and there may still be a few more days of traders crying uncle and giving up on certain stocks. I’ve personally done more buying in the last 2 days than I have in the last few months, but worry I’m still premature in adding to many positions and have almost used up all my dry powder at this point, including funds raised by selling off some portfolio dogs recently.

            I’ve kept my royalty positions as profit dumpsters for some time, and may have to start dipping into their reserves to fund future acquisitions if things keep going like this, but had that plan in place in case we saw one more ugly drawdown in the sector. For me personally, I’d rather blow out non-core positions first, but I’ve mostly done that now, and so robbing from my royalty stocks to add to juniors that I feel will eventually outperform is one of the last moves I’ve got left on the chessboard at this point in the game.

    May 10, 2022 10:43 PM

    Santacruz Silver has really been taking it on the nut lately, I keep thinking The cost of running Glencore’s mines they acquired are going to be a lot more expensive to run due to inflation than they anticipated. That was a tall order for a small producer, time will tell, when you get a transaction like that someone has to lose and someone has to win. Did they get snookered, the markets will tell. DT

    Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:41 PM

      DT, I was thinking the same thing about SCZ and that Glencore deal.

      Reply
        May 10, 2022 10:18 PM

        Hi DT and Terry – with regards to the Santacruz and the acquisition of the Glencore silver mines in Bolivia, it remains to be seen how they will run, at what costs, and at what margins, but inflation is hitting all mining companies bottom lines.

        Personally, I don’t believe the market has truly processed all the assets that SCZ just acquired though, because in addition to the mines there were also mills, power plants, and other exploration projects. On the other side of this it is transformational of Santacruz from a smaller producer and into a mid-tier producer. Whether that will get off to a bumpy start remains to be seen, but over time I expect a multifold rise in their marketcap.

        The recent selldown in SCZ is just on par with the rest of the silver stocks tanking over the last few weeks, but my position is still well in the green, and I did pull profits and take some chips off the table at higher levels and may add a little to my Santacruz position if the shareprice keeps sliding in the nearterm.

        Reply
    May 10, 2022 10:55 PM
      May 11, 2022 11:26 AM

      The monthly MACD concerns me a bit. It rolled over and turned down sharply and looks like it still could be quite a few months before it touches or even approaches the zero line. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean price will crash but if it does need to get to zero, then prices will likely be range bound at best.

      If the MACD does get to zero and flattens out a bit, that will probably be one of the lowest risk entries one could hope for (assuming we are still in a bull market).

      Reply
        May 11, 2022 11:02 AM

        If you look at the 2008 low, you can see that silver bottomed way before its monthly MACD bottomed and had roughly doubled by the time the MACD rebought. Also, the MACD doesn’t necessarily need to reach the zero line. For example, it could do what the S&P did in 2016 and turn up well above it.
        Here’s the above chart again with a vertical line placed at the 2008 low to illustrate my first point.
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=t6373515660c&a=1162286779&r=1652288025817&cmd=print

        These links that end with “print” have a short life so I can reload expired ones if anyone wants me to.

        Reply
    May 10, 2022 10:01 PM

    And to think, we could’ve sat back in Bitcoin all these years. Pundits, be damned!

    Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:31 PM

      Well I did put some money to work in the cryptos back in the fall of 2020 in GBTC, and then made some cake with the crypto miners from late 2020 into 2021, but haven’t been in that sector since then.

      Really, the cryptos have taken it on the chin lately too though, and Bitcoin has been more than chopped in half since the highs at $69,000 to the current price at around $31,400. Other cryptos have performed even worse over the last half year, so it isn’t like they’ve been the bastion of hope either.

      Really this has been a sell everything event, and a survival of the fittest ball, and in that sense Gold, and the energy sectors with Oil/Nat Gas and some other commodities have done pretty good all things considered. Now the related commodity stocks have suffered, but they tend to outperform to the downside as well as on the upside, so not a total shock. However, I am concerned that with Gold in the lower $1800s that the stocks are way down compared to where they were when gold was at the same levels last year and in many cases the mining stocks are down far lower than where they were trading when gold was merely in the mid to high $1300’s back in 2016. It is a bit jarring how bad the valuations are at $1830 gold and $21.50 silver compared to where they traded at these exact same prices in 2020 or even 2021.

      Tough times… but this too shall pass…

      Reply
    May 10, 2022 10:12 PM

    Oversold GDXJ fell 28% in 3 weeks and looks ready to turn.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p76108114489&a=1105555118

    Reply
      May 10, 2022 10:33 PM

      There are a few gaps down in GDXJ recently at around $41 and $45 that seem reasonable to fill on a bounce higher.

      Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:47 AM

    Inflation Or Recession

    Lyn Alden Schwartzer – May 09, 2022

    “This newsletter issue examines the Federal Reserve’s dilemma as it tries to fight inflation, while trying not to contribute to the forming of a recession.”

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4508930-inflation-or-recession

    Reply
      May 11, 2022 11:57 AM

      Investing During Stagflation 101

      Lyn Alden Schwartzer – May 02, 2022

      – “Bonds and growth stocks tend to have the most trouble.”

      – “Value stocks, commodities, and real estate are typically the places to be. Some cash can also help with rebalancing.”

      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4505720-investing-during-stagflation-101

      Reply
      May 11, 2022 11:45 AM

      Jeezus Chrysler, “the Federal Reserve’s dilemma as it tries to fight inflation…”
      People like Lyn really should avoid using the Fed’s deceptive lingo. The Fed’s immoral and unconstitutional counterfeiting (stealing) is the sole cause of inflation so it is always disingenuous when Fed heads claim to be fighting it. Their Ponzi scheme debt-based monetary system requires inflation/ever expanding debt in order to function. The purpose of it from the beginning is total control and to relieve us of our wealth.

      Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:47 AM

    What sucks most investors in is the belief that Easy Street is at the end of the journey. The situation has become more perilous as The Pendulum has started The Big Slide to the downside, remember how hard it was to stop on the upside, these markets will now be very hard to stop to the downside and we have a long way to go.

    The Reserve authorities are beaten. All the markers in the conventional markets by which the price of the Fang stocks could be measured had long since been passed. Most investors fall in love with one or two stocks and buy and hold. They really don’t understand that markets go up and down. When the down shows up they lose all, and become very pessimistic, and the psychological reaction to the markets is very negative, all markets are governed by psychology. DT

    Reply
      May 11, 2022 11:44 AM

      DT – Yes, once the trend starts building in either direction (to the upside or downside) it is hard to stop that momentum from carrying things further than people expect. If the markets do start a bigger rollover and corrective move over the next few months, it may be hard to quell the selling. As for psychology, that is a big part of investing for sure, and those investors that felt like they couldn’t lose in tech, growth stocks, EV stocks, vaccine stocks, cryptos, NFTs, SPACs, meme stocks, Tesla, stay at home stocks, reopening stocks, etc… just get dealt a harsh dose of reality and it has finally hit their psychology and the buy the dip mentality that was so pervasive for so long.

      At least as resource investors we are used to having the rug pulled out from under us during most rallies, so it is less shocking for us to have to endure corrective moves. Having said that, it’s clear most resource investors are pretty fatigued at this point, and tired of the repeated false breakouts and extended grinding periods. Companies are hesitant to put out news or resource estimates or economic studies because they become liquidity events, and yet, they can’t just burn through their capital in G&A expenses without progressing their projects or they’ll get punished for that as well.

      Overall, I’m as bullish as anyone on the resource stocks in the medium to longer term, but it does wear one thin to keep getting hit time after time after time again, and it feels a lot like standing at the craps table where shooter after shooter keeps rolling 7’s right after you get the table set up. My trading account has lost 1/3 of it’s value just from where it was trading in late March/early April. That’s a real gut punch to take in just a month’s time, and it was across dozens and dozens of stocks, not just 1 or 2 bad apples. I can’t imagine I’m alone in that kind of experience over the last few weeks, and can understand the soured sentiment in the sector, and the desire by some to just give up, but that is usually how things are when we are closer to a bottom.

      If we got a market crash now that further sucked things down the drain, it would be pretty hard to stomach a further 20%-30% decline, and still hold steady, and so that is still a going concern if we see “the big one” as far as market meltdown. I guess if we do get some kind of relief rally, that it would be prudent to trim back some exposure and to raise a bit more cash to have on hand.

      Reply
        May 11, 2022 11:17 AM

        Hi Ex, well written as usual your understanding of the markets is second to none. Something a lot of people aren’t discussing and that is worrisome is industry has become highly technological and mechanized. The jobs aren’t plentiful anymore and more will disappear in the very near future as technology keeps moving at a relentless pace. Our governments see a problem developing with huge numbers of the labor force sitting idle. Instead of addressing this concern they use technology to control us and keep us in line. Meanwhile the public has maxed out their credit limits and are worried about how they will make future payments on all that spending. If industry doesn’t have their money it will sit idle waiting for buying power to return.

        Meanwhile unrest will be a problem here and in foreign countries if there isn’t even a chance for decent future jobs because of the relentless pace of technology and the loss of buying power of the public. DT

        Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:23 AM

    Ex thanks for your response above. Matthew thanks for the other lower targets and fork on impact.

    Ex you wrote

    Well I did put some money to work in the cryptos back in the fall of 2020 in GBTC, and then made some cake with the crypto miners from late 2020 into 2021, but haven’t been in that sector since then.

    Really, the cryptos have taken it on the chin lately too though, and Bitcoin has been more than chopped in half since the highs at $69,000 to the current price at around $31,400. Other cryptos have performed even worse over the last half year, so it isn’t like they’ve been the bastion of hope either.

    Really this has been a sell everything event, and a survival of the fittest ball, and in that sense Gold, and the energy sectors with Oil/Nat Gas and some other commodities have done pretty good all things considered. Now the related commodity stocks have suffered, but they tend to outperform to the downside as well as on the upside, so not a total shock. However, I am concerned that with Gold in the lower $1800s that the stocks are way down compared to where they were when gold was at the same levels last year and in many cases the mining stocks are down far lower than where they were trading when gold was merely in the mid to high $1300’s back in 2016. It is a bit jarring how bad the valuations are at $1830 gold and $21.50 silver compared to where they traded at these exact same prices in 2020 or even 2021.

    Tough times… but this too shall pass…

    Reply

    This is a great point and one myself am baffled at. Now I’m sure Matthew or doc or others may have a possible answer for this but I’m just at aww as well that what’s it going to take to get impact back to $1.30 some day silver at $40?

    Or how about Brixton at even .60? Gold at $2500

    I would like to think that when gold finally breaks through the all time high give or take another 1-5 month stretch is what I give it. Then we can begin to truly see the fireworks In the miners more specifically small cap and explorers and developers. Despite my being bullish and a bull and that the low in gold will not be broken it does not mean this consolidation clearly can have a more congested base before the triple top breakout. I guess the longer the wait the higher to space 🤷‍♂️.

    I think we’ll I guess what I’m saying is all I can come up with is gold breaking that triple top and having a glorious run combined with cad/euro breakout and dollar collapse might help with miners and reversion to the means. Which tells me Two things Ex, that the point and figure chart used by Matthew and other expert traders points to much higher prices and that we will need to finally have explosive super long white candle breakouts back to back to get these miners up to par. And we all know this only happens at major pivotal bottoms. 2008, 2015/2016, 2020 etc.

    Reply
      May 11, 2022 11:07 AM

      Good points Glenfidish, and yes I’d agree that when gold breaks up through $2089 to make a new all time high in the $2100s and $2200s, and when Silver pierces through $30 into the mid to high $30’s that we’ll see higher valuations in the mining stocks and see more momentum and even enthusiasm in the PM sector from a larger audience. Until then the valuations in the mining stocks seem pretty disconnected from current metals prices, and they remain discounted and still attractive for accumulation.

      Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:24 AM

    U.S. Inflation Eased Less Than Hoped in April Due to Strong Core CPI

    Investing.com – May 11, 2022

    “The annual headline rate of inflation fell to 8.3% from 8.5%, as last year’s surge in used car prices started to drop out of the year-on-year calculations. However, that was still above the 8.1% expected.”

    https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-inflation-eased-less-than-hoped-in-april-due-to-strong-core-cpi-2822554

    Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:29 AM

    day /GC…1791 to 1758 target technically…..will it?……no idea…so do some short term chart trades until break back over 1878…the 10 minute gold chart even w the inflation news is pre-market only a buy signal not buy mode…so be careful….IMHO…weird that it is not up 3%…glta
    https://tos.mx/mO9LcQY

    Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:40 AM

    Anyone own……..RIO TINTO………..?
    thanks…..

    Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:07 AM

    SILVER TIGER( SLVTF) : Entered @ $.2986 – 5k shares ( See Metals &Mining Virtual video update – May4 22

    Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:48 AM

    Back in 2018, the miners bottomed about a month before the Powell pivot and US stock markets.

    The miners and the metals bottomed well before US stocks back during the dot com crash (if we disregard gold’s low in 1999 and instead look at its retest in 2001, they all bottomed 1-2 years ahead of US stocks). But then again the miners had been in a bear market since 1995 and were falling during the ramp up in US stocks into 1999. But the point is, during the steepest declines in US stocks, the gold miners were actually rallying.

    So 2008 seems like a fairly unique event because the metals and miners were highly correlated with the US stock market directionally speaking.

    I think the takeaway is that 2008 was a true liquidity event where the entire financial system hung in the balance. I don’t believe liquidity is an issue now given all of the emergency lines of credit (reverse repo etc.) that the banks have available to them–they are literally backstopped by the Fed. I could be wrong about this, but it is something that should be considered.

    Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:51 AM

    I think late June/early July will most like see the lows in the miners and metals.

    My guess is July will mark the end of the Fed’s rate hiking cycle and/or it will be clear we are in a recession. So between today and July, given how the miners appear to be trading in lockstep with the US stock market, I anticipate we will see lower lows in the miners. I would guess there will be some sort of sideways consolidation or rally in the miners before another leg lower is put in, however. Just my 2 cents.

    Barring a rally into the close, it looks like today’s uptick is being faded pretty heavily.

    Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:09 AM

    $silver has not put in a white candle on the daily chart in 16 trading days and today looks like it could be day 17. That is absolutely insane behavior.

    If you don’t believe the metals are manipulated silver’s trading behavior should give you pause. The week of April 18 will live in infamy IMO, as everything in the PM complex was poised to ramp higher.

    Reply
    May 11, 2022 11:07 AM

    Ditto………. you bet they are manipulated…… silver especially……… been that way since 1964……

    Reply

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