John Rubino – Inflation, Fed Policy, Consumer Spending, Deflation, The US Dollar, Gold, and Bitcoin
John Rubino, Founder of The Dollar Collapse website, joins us to discuss the latest inflation reading, Fed policy concerns, trends in consumer spending, potential deflation, the US dollar, Gold, and Bitcoin. We start off with increased investor inflation expectations, with the CPI coming in at 8.3% for April. There are market concerns about the how far the Fed will get into the process of policy tightening and rate hikes, and whether it will have the desired effect of slowing inflation. We discuss the slowing growth, tapped out consumer increasing their buying on credit, how that may affect the demand side of the inflationary pressure and turn more deflationary. This is counterbalanced with high costs and global shortages of food and energy and supply chain issues keeping prices elevate.
Next we moved in the destabilizing forces of inflation being persistent, with a central bank far behind the curve on raising rates, while consumer spending has likely peaked and starting to wane, as the general markets, bonds, and commodities all sell off. The strong US dollar seems to be one of the few asset classes getting a bid from investors, relative to other fiat currencies, but the 2 safe haven alternatives to fiat, both gold and bitcoin, haven’t garnered as much of a bid. Most market commentators await the point where the market pain grows high enough to where the Fed will decide to reverse course and reliquify the markets.
Ex, any chance to have Rick Ackerman on?
His Dollar thinking may be panning out.
Fed “Doesn’t Care” About Inflation, It’s a Mirage to Prop U.S. Dollar at All Costs Says E.B. Tucker
Stansberry Research – May 11, 2022
“We are in a centrally planned economy, and no longer a capitalist system due to the Fed’s actions,” asserts E.B. Tucker, bestselling author of “Why Gold, Why Now?” This narrative-driven economy has been pinpointed on the Fed wanting to strengthen the dollar, “they don’t care about inflation,” he tells our Daniela Cambone. Tucker illustrates this large, “debt-based system,” as a perpetual boom with the occasional crisis. He also adds that it is difficult for investors to navigate these economic waters, “and won’t end until it explodes, which is not going to happen anytime soon.”
He warns that a digitized dollar is the next step toward total control of the masses, saying that China has already begun this with the digital yuan. Tucker touts and defends the company Metalla because they’ve acquired over 70 royalties to date, and concludes that this fantastic investment is parallel to, “the gold price doing great.”
That interview does go a long way in making sense of all this turmoil…Thanks for posting EX….The central planning part does not please me at all…Some how someday these basterds will mess up and free men will reintroduce free markets..I will not be around to witness this rebirth of freedom from hegemonic tyrannical system freaks….The saying is ‘hard times make for strong men and those men make good times, again’….That sounds great but everyone is becoming a soyboy LBGTQ devotee….Odds are that what I thought was normal society look pretty much gone…glta
Thanks Larry and yes the rise of free markets again like a phoenix out of the ashes of the final throws of this controlled system collapse, may still take a long while, but it will be splendid when that day comes.
Larry and Ex
FREE markets will not happen. Not until the second coming of Our Lord Jesus Christ. I have written it countless times here the price of PMs will ALWAYS be controlled. The miners will go nowhere.
I liked the way EB explained how the Bullion banks can sell thousands of contracts in the morning and then buy back in the afternoon, knocking the crap out of the price and not really trading anything but paper…….doesn’t bode well for what we’re all hoping for.
Bitcoin now plunging down 58% to $28,836, after making an all time high of $68,789 on November 9th of last year.
About 26,000 is next and I bet it will happen fast.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p77906508807&a=1075706252
After that, there’s some support near 23,000:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p91457562289&a=1102557845
After that, there’s the rising 200 week MA just below 22,000; then the 2017 high just below 20,000 followed by quickly rising monthly Bollinger band support above 16,000 (more like 20,000 next month if BC holds up until then).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p07558409925&a=1101103783
Wow, that was fast indeed. It hit my fork and bounced over $2,000 (almost 9%).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BTCUSD&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p07558409925&a=1101103783
PM sector declining like a Bill Gates hamburger. Where’s the beef???
Alexco did a Private Placement exactly one month ago for $1.75 a share, now their share price is 87 cents. OUCH! DT
Trend Turn Table : Gas & *PMs* : https://tinyurl.com/mt2berap
Pre-market saturation! Turn possible now or later today.
Question marks = data limited or unavailable.
Last line obviated by lower NY Time prices.
Legacy: https://tinyurl.com/yc794bru
Dollar much higher. Ackerman: 109
104.71 this morning. Top for now?
Dollar on Wheaties, but: “This too, shall pass!”
CDNX Venture index…
At this point, silver is basically guaranteed to test the 200 WMA at $20. After that it’s anyones guess where it goes. At this rate, I wouldn’t rule out $15 (to close that gap).
The junior silver miners have been more or less predicting this action for the last 2-3 months. Wish I would have listened. There is really no point in selling now. I simply have to wait for the Fed to cry uncle apparently.
I’ve mentioned how similar silver currently looks compared to palladium back in 2008. My guess and hope now is where ever this ends, we should see a rise to $45+ within 1-2 years of the next low, followed by a multi year consolidation and likely retest of the $20-25 level before it goes to the moon. That could be 5+ years out though.
The last of the holdouts, gold itself and the generals aem, nem, abx heading for their round trip back to early feb lows. The dregs been there and much lower for quite some time.
Nothing different with silver outpacing on the downside by a large margin vs gold. Let’s see if it and other producers repeat history with any kind of oversold pop in gold on the upside by underperforming
Silver needs to take out $49……… before the next” moon shot “move to $600.(bix weir number)… lol……….
Agreed Jerry. Should happen sometime in the next decade or so……….
Thanks Silverdollar………..
I was going to type a whole lot more……. but, … I am on reserve… lol …… 🙂
As long as silver’s 200 WMA is below its 600 WMA, they can take price pretty much wherever they want.
Well one positive note is that AXU has pretty much hit its measured move to .80 based on the H&S projection. It’s also trying to put in a small hammer candle today, FWIW.
the inverted H&S in the GSR, which has now triggered, has a measured move that would close the May 2022 gap around 106.
Also, silver’s may 2022 gap is basically $17, not $15 as I stated above.
Silver at $17 with a GSR around 106 suggests gold at $1800, a target that seems highly realistic.
Silver is probably going to continue losing chunks soon. I imagine US stocks could get absolutely smoked in the process too.
Ruble best performing currency.
I wonder how long it can go on.
“From Here To Eternity” with Putin as Lancaster.
Actually, Medevedev is the real Hawk in Dove’s feathers.
BDC, Very few people know who Burt Lancaster is these days, I think you just gave away your age. My favorite Burt Lancaster movie is “The Swimmer”. DT
Incredible movie! Diving in on the neighbors…lol.
GDX is hanging over a cliff on the weekly chart. If we can’t get some sort of large rally tomorrow (and even if we do), GDX will almost 100% be hitting its 200 WMA and in all likelihood the lower weekly BB currently at $27.
While we may be very close in time to a final low in the miners, I am pretty confident in saying a stock like AG will not be able to break above its 100 WMA until it crosses below the 200 WMA.
AG going to be rangebound between its 400 and 100 WMAs until spring or summer of next year, at best.
OK last post for a while.
Today’s close and tomorrow are huge for the miners IMO. We can’t let loose to the downside today, and I would like to see a strong rally tomorrow.
Here’s hoping Green. Some very decent analysis by the way.
Important NEM hold: $65 even!
doc, argonaut I buy here at .87. What a hit, is it going to survive.
Silver’s rising 50 month MA at 19.99 is superimposed on a big fork support which increases the odds that it will be tested and probably tomorrow.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=10&mn=7&dy=0&id=t3421142655c&a=1163584321&r=1652386982974&cmd=print
The weekly picture goes well with the monthly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22187685421&a=1163733918
GDX has a lot of support just below but it better hold.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p41405183535&a=1051124412
Marc Faber Warns Recession Risks Rise As Central Banks Move Slowly On Interest Rates
May 4, 2022- ABC News
“Contrarian investor Marc Faber says central banks have waited too long to act. He believes a recession is inevitable and it will hurt ordinary people.”
https://youtu.be/9EoXWv6DkRI