A Valuable Round Table Discussion on Metals investing with Doc and David Erfle

August 4, 2017

This is a preview to segment 2 on this week’s weekend show. I got a chance to have Doc and David Erfle, Editor of the Junior Miner Junky, to discuss what their technicals are showing them for the physical price of metals and metal stocks. I hope you all enjoy, there is a lot of great information here. Please feel free to share this round table.

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    Aug 04, 2017 04:17 PM

    ira’s end of week

    Aug 04, 2017 04:42 PM

    60 Minutes with Dustin Angelo, CEO Anaconda Mining (ANX) (ANXGF)

    by @Newton on August 3, 2017

    Aug 04, 2017 04:43 PM

    HAYWOOD RESEARCH: Q2 Reporting off to a Mixed Start for Precious Metal Stocks

    The Weekly Dig – August 4, 2017

    by Mick Carew, PhD, Emma Boggio, MSC, CPA and CA, and The Haywood Mining Team


    Aug 04, 2017 04:09 PM

    Regarding Silver stocks – I’m always blown away by people that shun them for Gold stocks.

    First of all Silver is more volatile than Gold, and it typically outperforms Gold both to the Upside and Downside. So if an investor in bullish on Gold, it lacks common sense that they would not also be even more bullish on Silver.

    The same goes for the miners. In 2016 the ETFs (SIL) and (SILJ) outperformed both (GDX) and (GDXJ) by a fair margin, and yet investors extol the virtues of Gold stocks and snub the Silver stocks. Why wouldn’t you want to have shares in the ETFs or stocks that are going to perform the best (???) 🙂

    We’ve discussed this a few times, but early in 2016 there was a video segment with Brent Cook and Mickey Fulp at the bar where they called all Silver investors crazy conspiracy theorists and went as far as calling people that invest in Silver miners “Wingnuts.” Otto & Peter Brandt also mock Silver mining investors all the time as well.

    It’s pretty funny, because when buying the Silver miners in Tax Loss selling in Dec 2015 and going in big in Jan/Feb 2016, I seem remember many of the Jr Silver Producers and Developers and Explorers going up 500%-1000% and trouncing the returns of the picks that group had that went up more like 200-300%.

    How was missing another 300-700% by not having positions in the highly leveraged Silver stocks a better plan Gold mining purists?

    (here’s a clue…… it wasn’t).

    In a strong Bull market Silver outperforms Gold, and the Silver miners outperform Gold miners. The Jr miners outperform the Senior miners. It isn’t rocket science to deduce that owning Jr Silver Miners gives one the most leverage to a Precious Metals bull market, and I’m encouraged by how many investors still struggle to get this concept, as it makes it possible to keep acquiring on the cheap before we see action like 2010-2011 and 2016 again.

      Aug 04, 2017 04:15 PM

      Now in a corrective market, like we saw today, the inverse is true and Silver miners get hit far worse than gold miners, and the Jrs are hit harder than the Seniors.

      The question really is, when the worm turns and the metals rally begin, would an investor be better served in a basket of Jr Silver stocks or (SILJ) or the Gold stocks like (GDX) or (GDXJ). The evidence is pretty clear which one will have the larger returns.

      Don’t get me wrong, I have a large chunk of individual Gold Producers, Developers, and Explorers in my portfolio as there are individual stories that look likely to outperform their peers, but to snub Silver miners just tells me that those investors aren’t sold on the Bull market when the upturn begins in earnest.

        Aug 04, 2017 04:21 PM

        The last component that is particularly under-covered, not factored in, and quite puzzling is that for the last year Zinc and it’s companion metal Lead have been absolutely the rage. There are so many new Zinc mining stories, or Silver miners that turned into Zinc miners, etc…. that it is mind blowing.

        That vast majority of Silver miners have both Zinc and Lead co-products that will be at much higher levels over the next few quarters (and some say 1-3 years). If that is the case, then we should start seeing a trend over the next few quarters of more and more Base Metals credits, driving down the costs.

        May prosperity favor the Wingnuts!

          Aug 05, 2017 05:46 AM

          One last comment – it is erroneous to say all silver miners need $18.50 to be profitable.

          > The AISC for (USAS) Americas Silver is dropping from $12-$10 down to $3 when San Rafael comes on line (that mine will actually have negative AISC due to all the base metal credits).

          > (SVM) Silvercorp still has an AISC down around $3-$4 per ounce.

          > (EXN) Excellon is reducing their AISC from $19 down to $9 now that their dewatering of the mine has been achieved (less pumps, and access to more high grade stopes).

          > (ASM) Avino Silver and gold just put out their quarterly results this last week and had this to say:

          “Consolidated all-in sustaining cost (“AISC”)2 was $10.42 per payable silver equivalent ounce”

          > Heck, even (AG) (FR) First Majestic, on their bad news was raising their AISC from $11-$12 up to $14 per ounce.

          *** So there are plenty of companies operating down in the $3-$14 per Silver ounce cost bracket. To keep broadcasting that the whole Silver mining sector needs $18.50 or higher to break even is simply not true.

          It isn’t trendy or cool to buy Jr Silver Mining stocks here but that’s precisely why I’m adding to my positions so aggressively. See ya at the top…..

      Aug 05, 2017 05:12 AM

      I agree with you to a certain extent. As I stated in my Kitco Op-Ed this week (linked below), junior silver producers will under-perform until the market feels the silver price has a solid $18.50 floor. However, being investing in the best in class silver developers/explorers since December 2015 has been VERY profitable. As usual with the resource sector, timing is everything. During the ’08 run-up SLW, AG, & EXK were 3 of my best performers as I was fortunate enough to buy them near the lows. I also agree tax-loss season will be an excellent time to begin scaling into the primary jr. silver producers. Thanks to all for the comments:

    Aug 04, 2017 04:09 PM
    Aug 05, 2017 05:52 AM

    We have a quadruple inverse parabolic top forming in gold right now, with the latest high below the past two. Kind of looks similar to end of 2010, before the 2011 big move up to $1900. Not saying that this pattern will play out the same in 2017. In 2010, gold was late on in a bull market, now in 2017, it’s a long way into a bear market, perhaps near the end, perhaps not. However, it is an interesting little pattern:$GOLD&p=M&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p84715185119&a=422997387&listNum=1

      Aug 05, 2017 05:49 AM

      I’m going to take the other side of the trade, and agree with Morris Hubbartt that we have a huge inverse H&S pattern playing out in Gold where it is almost done consolidating and when it does start to move to the upside aggressively, it’s going to leave most behind in it’s wake…..