Hour 1 – Coverage on Gold, Oil, Ecuador, and The Fed
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Most of this week’s first hour is focused on the metals sector with a dive into a couple stocks. Of course we also get some more insights into the Fed statement this week. Be sure to check out the daily editorials throughout the week that outline the moves up in gold and gold stocks!
We hope everyone has a very merry Christmas!
Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 – Joe Mazumdar, Editor of Exportation Insights shares his thoughts on the Evrim drill results and what they mean for the Company moving forward. We also discuss the value of trenching as an exploration technique.
- Segment 2 – Chris Temple, Founder of The National Investor recaps his trip to Ecuador and the companies he visited.
- Segment 3 – We get an up date on the oil sector and opportunities to be had by Josef Schatcher, Founder of the Schatcher energy report.
- Segment 4 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex recaps the Fed meeting and statement.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
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Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Hey, that’s Skeeter’s job. 🙂
Good morning, Ex.
Cheers Ebolan. Top o’ the morning to you sir.
Yeah… Skeeta must be taking it easy after have a few cool adult beverages in his pool last night. Those Aussies like to have a throw down good time, but I’m sure he’ll check in during the weekend 😉
Thanks for the weekend show guys as always,
Merry Christmas to all.
Gold Mining Stocks Are Breaking Out While The S&P 500 Tumbles
by @Goldfinger on December 18, 2018
“While most stocks have been sold aggressively during the last few weeks (the S&P 500 is down 7.15% in December) the gold mining sector as measured by the GDX is enjoying its best month of 2018 with a 10.5% gain month-to-date. If we look at the chart of the GDX/SPY ratio for the last couple of years we can quickly deduce that an important low was put in place in September and that a reversal of the longer term trend may be underway…”
Dow dives 400 points to end its worst week in 10 years
Thomas Franck- Friday 21 Dec, 2018
Hedge Fund Armageddon
Dec 19 2018 – Chris at Capitalist Exploits
“You are witnessing a massive culling of the hedge fund industry as hundreds of funds are liquidated and thousands more get sizable redemptions. Many of these funds own the same companies—the outcasts from the indexed world, the cheap, the unloved; the same stocks that many other hedge fund managers own. With the hedge fund industry going in reverse, there is suddenly no natural buyer for what must be sold. As a result, you are seeing waves of forced sell orders and few buyers. It is creating rather insane bargains all around.”
And this is only the beginning.
Yes, the trend will likely extend.
Alan Greenspan: Investors should prepare for the worst
Donna Borak, CNN Business – Tue December 18, 2018
My Take On The Outlook Of the Dollar
by @Samson on December 21, 2018
“However, approximately half of the U.S. equities are now trading 20% lower from the historical high earlier this year. Technically, it could be argued that half of the U.S. equities markets are now in a bear market. A region’s stock market performance is usually a precursor of its domestic real economy, usually with a lead time of 6-9 months.”
“The tightening is the correct move by the Fed, but it could possibly backfire”
“In addition, let us demonstrate why the United States does not have too much room to increase interest rates. First of all, while the economy of the United States looks strong, and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has now become a tempest in a teapot, we can also argue that several of the problems that caused the 2008 GFC are yet to be solved…”
Cheers back to you ex. We are now in an expecting waiting game—only a matter of time.
Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – And the Horse You Rode In On – Purposeful Risks
17 December, 2018 – Jesse’s Cafe’ Americain
Have followed Jesse’s blog for years. His level of frustrations, but acceptance of the present, equal mine when it comes to the prices of PM’s. One day……
I generally find several articles worth reading from his list on the left side of his page.
Thanks Ex., for your input on Doc’s interview post on the 20th. My sentiments exactly. You’re an artist with the language………….
Yes agreed Silverdollar, the pace of the precious metals advance, decline, and sideways channeling the last 2 years has been frustratingly slow and muted, but at least the metals stayed resilient in the face of a stronger dollar and surging stock market during this period.
Thanks for the kind words, and right back at you sir. Ever Upward!
Acquiring or selling: Mining Leaders Talk About Their 2019 Plans
Bloomberg News | about 5 hours ago
– Gary Goldberg – Newmont Mining
– Don Lindsay – Teck Resources
– Sean Boyd – Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
– Clive Newall – First Quantum Minerals
Ex, Wait till they realize That Hedge Fund “C” is invested in Hedge Fund “B” and that Hedge Fund “A” owns shares in Hedge Funds “B and C” and Hedge Fund “A” is rolling over. Won’t it look like “The Keystone Cops”, instead of smart money managers. A couple of thousand Hedge Funds will “POP”. LOL! DT
Haha! Yes DT it will be a comedy of errors compounding in a lunatic fashion.
Proper Gold Stock Analysis Does Not Begin with Focusing on the Gold Price
MiningStockEducation – Dec 20, 2018 – EconomicAlpha Interview
Luis the @EconomicAlpha, as he is known on Twitter, has been investing in gold stocks for over ten years. With a background in insurance underwriting and risk management and a degree in economics, Luis’ interest in gold and precious metals eventually lead him to begin investing in precious metals stocks. Luis originally began tweeting about his mining investment decisions in order to document his investment journey for solely personal reasons, but in the process he has attracted thousands of followers who find value in what he posts online. In this interview, Luis shares regarding how he began investing in mining stocks, outlines his approach to resource investing, and tells of some of his successes and failures.
2:27 Luis’ background and how he began mining stock investing
4:22 Some of the most difficult things Luis had to overcome as a newer mining investor
7:25 How Luis managed his portfolio through the recent bear market in mining equities
11:13 Does Luis think we are in a confirmed gold bull market?
12:31 What a mining stock trade looks like for Luis
13:56 Breakdown of Luis’ portfolio by mining investment type
15:38 How Luis approaches gold stock investing
22:13 Luis discusses some of his biggest winners & his exit strategy
25:21 What stocks Luis looks to in order to gauge the direction of the sector
29:17 The role of technical analysis in Luis’ investing approach
Lessons From A Tough Stock Market Year & What People Are Looking Forward To In 2019
by @Goldfinger on December 19, 2018
“The past is behind us and while there are many lessons to be taken from 2018 for me the biggest lesson is to not stick around in stories that simply aren’t working anymore. I’m not saying to sell all of your shares at the first sign of any trouble (a down day etc.), but when things aren’t playing out according to ones thesis there has to be a point where one says “enough is enough” and it’s time to move on. It’s better to sell sooner, rather than be sorry later.”
“As we enter 2019 it feels a lot like December 2015 in the junior mining and resource sectors. Oil has been pummeled and equity valuations across the commodities space are arguably at historic lows. Simply stated, there’s not a whole lot of optimism out there as we enter the new year.”
“While there are plenty of reasons to be cautious, I believe that 2019 just might be the year that precious metals investors have been waiting for since at least 2012. Valuations are cheap, pessimism is high, and many gold & silver producers have gotten leaner during the last several years, putting them in a position to finally deliver returns to their shareholders. Could 2019 be the year in which precious metals producers finally deliver leveraged returns to shareholders in a rising metals price environment? My bet is yes.”
The Next Bull Market Move Interview – Rick Rule, President and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc
by @bullmarketmove on December 19, 2018
“For the very smallest of issuers, these are very trying markets. The investor perception with regards to mining, among generalist investors at least, is nonexistent. Which means that for the smallest companies, they’re literally facing survival issues, which tends to make them somewhat muted.”
Rick Rule: Deploying Capital To M&A Targets, Royalty Companies & Promising Exploration Projects
Swiss Resource Capital AG – Dec 22, 2018 #VIDEO Interview
“Everything is going down.” Why you need to own gold bullion right now
By Craig Hemke Weekly Wrap-Up w/ Eric Sprott ( Dec 21, 2018)
” Eric Sprott stops by to break down all the gold and silver news you need heading into 2019, including:
– Which company delivered an ominous warning for the market
– Why silver may be setting up for a tremendous run.
– Plus: signs that the big run for gold has already started
“More important than the gold going up is what else is going on. It’s funny how the macro-theory all along suggested that when the Fed stopped their quantitative easing and rates went up—but particularly the quantitative easing, where they go from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening—that one should have expected the stock market to roll over. Because the whole 2009 to 2018 was essentially a fraud created by the Fed, by doing things that no one in the history of the financial world had ever heard about before: printing money and having zero or negative interest rates. Well here we are. Now we’re doing the opposite. Are we surprised that stocks are going down? Well, we shouldn’t be.”
Sentiment Says Turn, Turn, Turn
Bob Moriarty – Dec 24, 2018
Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (12/21/2018)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Gold & Stock Market Update +Federal Reserve Interest Hike
iGold Advisor – Christopher Aaron – Dec 20, 2018 #TechnicalAnalysis #Video
Dollar Caps Respectable Gains This Week In Gold
by Gary Wagner – December 21, 2018 #TechnicalAnalysis Gold & Dollar Charts #VIDEO
Gold Stocks: Key Head & Shoulder Patterns
Morris Hubbartt – Dec 21, 2018 – Super Force #PreciousMetals #Video #TechnicalAnalysis
Big,big fan of Christopher .Thanks for spreading his work
The end of “The Trump Bull Market” and the beginning of “The Trump Super Bear Market”. That’s how it is especially when you are President, you get labelled with everything good and bad. Facebook is getting smashed to flinders, blame Trump. Business is not suffering from high money rates they are suffering from low money rates that have gone on for too long. Everyone is suffering from this malady. Who gets the blame not The Federal Reserve, but really all of what happened last week in the markets is the result of troubles initiated by The Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve biggest problem now is “How Do We Eliminate This Huge Debt That Is Outstanding”. Simply put they don’t have the tools to be able to sort this problem out without a crash. Like Bugs Bunny says, “That’s All Folks”. DT
Thanks Cory and Al for all you do. I found this recent, almost 1 hour CNBC Jeff Gundlach interview very worthwhile
Gold looks great on the weekly chart and will probably make a quick move to the 1380 area if it can close next week above this week’s high (1270.30). With so many bears and very skeptical bulls, the situation is ripe…
That would be explosive…………many might be left behind on the first push. I would say that Oliver basically agrees with you……..https://kingworldnews.com/one-of-the-most-important-interviews-of-2018-michael-oliver/
I really like Oliver’s momentum-based approach to his analysis.
Gold has finally closed two days above the 200 day MA:
…and has closed the last three weeks above the 200 week MA:
With the Fed out of the way and gold still acting well, the smarter remaining shorts will be covering into any weakness. The rest will cover into massive strength and at much higher prices.
FOR ALL POLITICAL VIEWS>>>>>>>>>GO TO NEXT SECTION………… 🙂
Is the Fed political info………………….
We want to keep everyone happy….. so that we do not clutter up the mining news….. 🙂
Thanks OOTB. I responded back to you on Doc’s blog from 20th, and agree that keeping the focus more on the economic side on this blog and keeping the political comments on that respective blog leads to Ia more cogent stream of thought, and is easier for readers to follow along with without posting irrelevant news hype ADD topics of the day that we are all inundated in already from all the other news outlets.
As far as the FED they are Central Bankers, so quite relevant for economic diacussions on the Korelin ECONOMICS Report. The info on trade wars or things that may impact currencies are quite related to the financial and investing discussion and the show sponsors. Again, people say politics has a lot to do with investing, but 90% of the political rants we see have absolutely nothing to do with investing and they are really more dredging up the cesspool of society
It is all the fringe conspiracy theories, jaded editorials with a polarizing political bent, heresay about dubiuous political developments that are completely unproven,
devisive commentary on other countries or their global political ideologies, or much of the tabloid-like garbage and diparaging of world leaders or investigations that have nothing remotely to do with investable ideas that clutter up the economic-focused commentaries. Those kinds of posts work fine on the political blogs because that’s their whole focus, and those are typically more popular because people love to talk trash.
Just my perception, but as mentioned previously, many people have written me in private over the years saying they don’t read the comments at the KER anymore or don’t post because of all the political nonsense. Those kind of comments don’t unify people they polarized them into in-groups and out-groups, and the Assumption people make sometimes on here that everybody agrees that their political stance is either Desiring to have an echo chamber of people that think the same way, or it pisses off the other half. Personally I’d rather see it isolated to another area of the blog so that it doesn’t affect people that come here for economic news and investing ideas.
To each their own.
Imagine if it was a Blog about working on Classic Automobiles, and people kept posting on politics and Benghazi and anti-Hillary , anti-Trump, failed policies of Obama or Reagan, anti brexit, anti-Israel or anti-Palestine, or whatever tweets and outrage of the day was trending — it would make no sense on a Blog dedicated to Autos.
Same thing if this was a Blog dedicated to cooking and recipes and people kept posting about the Mueller trial or whether Hillary’s email scandal was prosecuted correctly, or whether Frances macron is a douchebag or not. It woyld make no damn sense because it has nothing to do with cooking or recipes.
In this case this hour of the blog is about economics and investing and most of those topics have nothing to do with that either.
If people want a free-for-all then we can just start posting our local weather report, or touching stories of puppies and kittens, or the latest country or rap hits of the day. But those wouldn’t make any sense just like most of the political editoria rants don’t around the economic-focused comments.
In our case, I have to say that delving into politics was something that I pushed very hard. I maintain that there is a specific correlation between investing and politics. Most people agree as the audiences of the various Tv shows and large radio shows that I used to appear on said.
I had a very good publicist years ago and she had no problem scheduling appearances for me on national television and radio in Canada: the U.S.; parts of Europe and elsewhere. I also appeared in person at investment conferences throughout Canada; the United States and Europe.
My theory was successful to the point that Jay Taylor imitated it after we worked together along with my daughter for a couple of years. My statement is proven by the fact that he too started doing, what he called radio which was in reality a fee based internet program where the hosts paid the fees to be on the “network”. The only fees that I ever paid after I had a couple years of airtime experience what to my publicist who arranged for my appearance on stations which were affiliated with networks like Fox and others.
Just a follow up for Owl…….based upon a comment that CFS posted, which was in response to another investor….
Because several of us have made our investment fortunes based on long term political analysis rather than short term TA trading.
Different strokes for different folks.
Which I agreed with………just saying, since I am J. THE LONG……. 🙂
Sounds good Big Al, and as stated above, when it comes to macro economics, it does tie into SOME aspects of politics and there are cross currents like what the FED is going to do to interest rates and how that affects the bond markets, how the US trade policies or how government initiatives may affect the strength/weakness of the US Dollar, or how emerging markets may get creamed if the Dollar and US equities keep sucking up all the global capital. There is no doubt some relevant political discourse that ties into politics.
Having said that (repeatedly by the way every time this subject comes up), there are CLEARLY other areas that people rant on and on about, or that you cover in separate daily editorials that have NO correlation to economics, or resource investing.
> How did the endless rants on Israel versus Palestine, and the heated debates, arguments, name calling, insults, and insanity on the KER help investors out with better informed investment decisions?
> How does endless ripping on the Clintons, or Obama, or Trump, or Regan, or Putin, or Merkel, or May, or other world leaders assist in ECONOMIC investing, or the resource sector?
> How does posters ranting on the economic blogs about the Brett Kavanaugh attacks and investigation, or the Russian meddling investigation by Mueller, or the endless posts about the sealed indictments, or whether Hillary Clinton was properly punished for her missing emails have ANYTHING to do with the list of Resource Company sponsors along the sidebar on this page?
—–> Do you not see how many investors (particularly many of the left-leaning Canadian and European investors) might find a bombardment of posts about these kinds of political stances divisive, disruptive, and turn them off from reading the posts on this site?
(I realize that most of the radio listeners are in the US, but most investors in Resource companies — like the sponsors of this show — are clearly Canadian), and even the US investors are split down the middle on politics and their views, so taking a hard stance on the right will immediately isolate half your audience, and most will not come back for the economic updates if there is constant political mumbo-jumbo and very opinionated posts from dubious sources acting like they have a strangle-hold on the truth or political narrative?
>> The reality is that 90% of the political posts, editorials, and rants from folks on here have NOTHING to do with Economics, investing, or the Resource Sector.
I see 0 show sponsors that Political companies, and nearly 100% of the show sponsors are now mining companies. Do you honestly think all the boards of those companies share your political persuasion and like their press releases on drill results to have constant discussions of the Russian collusion investigation, Israel vs Palestine, Hillary Clinton or Trump?
(just a wild guess, but I’m sure they’d prefer an audience of folks discussing their company, the Gold/Silver/Base Metals sector, or other peer miners than wacked out polarizing political posts).
As mentioned to you before many times, there are many people that love the CEO interviews, economic discussions, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, discussions on currencies, bonds, the general equities, etc….. but they don’t feel like posting due to the all the political drama on here constantly, and the decision to have those debates isolated to specific editorials makes all the sense in the world.
If investors are making decisions on investing in the resource sector based on political discussions like Hillary’s emails, the epidemic around school shootings, Brett Kavanaugh’s trial, pulling out of Syria, or Trump tweets then they need to have their heads examined and shouldn’t be managing their own investing.
It’s pretty obvious that none of those “political” topics have anything to do with investing for anyone on the outside looking in, or most investors that would find this site from Kitco or searching for mining stock updates.
That was the only point I was making, and I’m not alone in those reflections.
OOTB do you really think CFS made longer term investment decissions or his money based on Fast & Furious, Benghazi, Mueller investigations on Russian meddling, by hating Hillary Clinton, or his endless posts on Israel and Palestine that cause nothing but arguments?
Come on…. nobody invests or makes money on any of that garbage.
The Fed or ECB policies, or Brexit, or Trade Wars do have value, but that isn’t what CFS spends most of every day posting about.
Very little of the political gossip and tabloid like extremely opinionated editorials that get posted here day in and day out actually help investors to be better informed in their trading accounts or longer term retirement accounts. They are mostly far right leaning political rants or polarizing commentary on ideologies, and they are typically the posts that lead to all the bickering and ruffled feathers.
Sorry, I just don’t see how those help investors, but understand completely why they are more popular and get more comments — people love to talk trash about things that they can’t change anyway and that are far out of their control, playing the blame game.
If they spent less time on that and more time on following the markets they’d likely do better in their investing, be happier, and have a hell of lot more free time.
If investors want the news, tweets, and outrage of the day there are thousands of other internet sites gushing with that information every minute of the day.
i guess, we need to spend more time going over the guru list of gold know it alls…….
Cheers……as you say….. 🙂
OOTB – Who said anything about going over the guru lists? (?)
The point was that 90% of the opinionated political rants on here have nothing to do with investing, and are only tiresome when peppered all over the economic blogs.
Now, the 227 posts on the Syria & Afghanistan blog are fine there, but that’s a political blog, but let’s be Frank, those topics have very little to do with the economic investments that folks on this site have made in the past or are making in 2019.
Which one of the KER show sponsors on the right hand side of the page should investors look to invest in based in on Syria and Afghanistan? (just curious)
OOTB – BTW – you know I love ya man, and I don’t mean to direct the comments at just you specifically, as they are meant to be more general in nature and there are a number of posters that rarely discuss investing and only weigh in on the political diatribes (regardless of the topic of the daily editorials).
However, since you were the one that posted the initial comments on this blog about keeping the politics separate (in a bit tongue-in-cheek), and then posted CFS’s comment about the political posts here dealing with longer term investments, then that is why I addressed my responses back to you, but they were meant to be general comments and not ripping on you personally.
Much love and holiday cheer to you as well my good man. 🙂
Ditto on the love ya.. man cheers
Seasons greetings and good tidings to all, and to all a good night!
I assume that you have noticed that today it is very definitely only a division of the total blog and it is clearly defined as such. Cory and I set this up because we completely agree with you.
Thanks Big Al. It has been a much more smooth process with the Economic and Political blogs on separate threads, easier to read, and keeps the 2 different topics more focused. This came up because a different user posted their opinion on the 20th on Doc’s blog about how they found the political rants in the midst of a blog on Gold and Gold stocks distracting to sift through. I was done with it on the blog but comments were made on this blog so the discussion continued on….. (as it has for years and years on this exact same discussion).
Thanks for all you & Cory do.
Big Al – just so you I’m a big fan of you, and your site, and all the great work Cory does, here is a link to the all the reposts of your site I’ve done over at ceo.ca to try to expose this site to a larger investing audience.
The most common response I get back from people in private messages there is asking if I work for you (haha!) or how I can stand to sift through all the political posts and bickering on the site. I tell them I come for the economic discussions, and once I explain that they are normally separate now, they really appreciate that, but say they only listen because of the all the polarizing political commentary on the blog. I thought you may appreciate the feedback.
Here is the newer link I’ve started using to post the economic audio interviews or posts on the KER that I find interesting. Many people over at ceo.ca get with me to let me know they appreciate all the hard work you guys do, and I agree that the KER crew is top shelf!
If Joseph Schatcher is right about oil and gas, it might be time to buy SLB, XOM, RDS, OXY, etc. SLB has fallen from 120 to 36 and yields more than XOM. I’ve never seen that before. Matthew, Do you prefer SLB, MO, or PM? I already have way too much in gold and silver, RDS, and XOM, so I’d like to add SLB and tobaccos to my collection.
Bonzo, I like SLB, then PM, and am not sure I’d bother with MO.
Thanks, Matthew. Seeking Alpha is full of discussion today about MO’s purchase of 45% of Cronus and 35% of JUUL for 15 billion. Could be a home run or a strike out…
BB; a few weeks you asked me about SLB and I believe I commented that it looked like it was ready to fall out of bed and it has. Not investment advice but the technicals tell me the odds are that the headache isn’t going to end anytime soon. Also for PM. I’ve been following imbby since you asked me about it and it still looks at risk. There is no hurry to get into the ones mentioned since major support has been broken and it’ll take awhile to stabilize. If you would like some exposure to oil you might want to consider doing due diligence on the oil tanker stocks. They’re pretty washed out and have minimal risk as long as debt/equity is not too high and other variables look good.
Oil has put in a bottom. I’m selling my OILD stock for about a 30% gain. Will be buying shares of UWTI.
Long term for oil is STILL DOWN.
I’ve probably said this a couple ways already but if the bears don’t have their way with gold this week, the odds will get even better for another good January.
When silver confirms gold, it’s lights-out for the bears:
Now that conventional stocks are in a bear market, we will probably soon see a much greater correlation with gold stocks. In other words, “up days” for stocks will no longer be bad for the miners. Instead, when both sectors go up, the gold stocks will go up more. So, when stocks finally find an intermediate term low in the weeks ahead, it will be positive for the miners.
You could be correct sooner rather than later.
Priced in gold, the miners are still way below their 2008 crash lows. In fact, the 2016 high for XAU:Gold was the same as the spike low of 2008:
GOEX is getting ready to go…
(DV) (DOLLF) Dolly Varden Hits 22 metres grading 333 g/t Silver in the Kitsol Zone, including 4 metres grading 1,113 g/t Silver
The Dow has already plunged 20% versus gold since October…
For those who can view it, the monthly Dow:Gold chart is very exciting for gold bulls:
Thanks to Cory & Big Al for continuing to put out daily editorials and the weekend show with such a varied cast of informed KER contributors.
Keep up the great work guys!