Even if a recession is pushed back the safe assets are still the place to be

July 18, 2019

Mike Larson, Editor of The Safe Money Report shares his thoughts on why he remains in safe assets even when the Fed and other central banks are going down the easy money road. We also discuss the potential scenario where markets do not breakdown but rather these safe assets outperform all the high flaying stocks.

Click here to follew Mike on Twitter @realmikelarson.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:12 AM

    Silver very strong today aswell, but, is IPT telling us its time for profit taking in silver? IPT down over 6 % from topping at 0,39 cad. Backtesting event, buying opportunity, who knows.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:17 AM

    SerialBrain2: Trump confirms he took control of the chemtrails and reveals more!

      Jul 19, 2019 19:11 AM

      Thanks for the post…….I mentioned that the other day concerning no chemtrails, ….that I also, have not seen chemtrails… Indianapolis

        Jul 19, 2019 19:14 AM

        HELLO AMERICA………..WAKE UP……….

    Jul 18, 2019 18:27 AM

    Doc, last week I asked you about NSRPF@1.60 and you said you were waiting to buy it@1.50;
    I watched it go to 1.70 and then bought another 3100 shares, hoping to buy more if it fell to 1.60, but yesterday it closed@1.86, so I gave up and put in an order to buy 5000 more shares@1.79 which was filled an hour ago. Now it is 1.83 Did you ever buy?
    Bob M., you said IRVRF is your biggest holding now. I own IRVRF too, but don’t see why it has more potential than Novo which could be sitting on another Witwatersrand. What am I missing? Thanks.

      Jul 19, 2019 19:28 AM


      It’s not an issue of who has the most gold or better project, it’s an issue of which will move the soonest. Irving will move higher and faster. Novo is like the turtle, slow but sure. QH is in the process of picking up more ground and until he is finished, he is not eager to show his cards and make everyone else rich.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:32 AM

    Anyone have any thoughts on GSV? It has done nothing on this move up. Might have something to do with a recent bought deal closed offering? Or it’s just not one of the better Nevada explorers?

      Jul 18, 2019 18:01 AM

      ItI just may be due in part to the king world being an advertiser

        Jul 18, 2019 18:52 PM

        Good one Marty! They sure are the”king of hype”.

      Jul 18, 2019 18:49 PM

      I think GSV will make its move soon as John Q. Public catches wind of precious metals move

    Jul 18, 2019 18:58 AM

    Encouraging to say the least. Mike is a very bright guy who keeps an eye on the background……..He logical in a way even I can understand. Thanks for the listen.

    Question: Any thoughts on how or why semi’s are still near their highs and not joining in the general market weakness of the last couple weeks?

    Jul 18, 2019 18:26 AM

    Matthew – On your 0.40 target for IPT, what does that translate to for ISVLF? Perhaps around 0.33?

    Jul 18, 2019 18:30 AM

    I don’t think people see whats about to happen! We are at the beginning of an amazing ride, A phase 2 golden bull ride. A once in a lifetime opportunity. For 3-5 years we will ride the gold bull into a new ATH. The mining shares will surge 5 to 10 times their value of today, or even more. If you invest today you will make a fortune, or maybe not. You see, most of the investors/traders will sell to soon or end up chasing the bull for the most of the time, not managing pick right and sit tight. If you want to ride this bull all the way you must have a solid short and long term investment plan. you must have the discipline to hold on to your investment plan. Pick your core mining stocks and sit tight. Pick your trading mining stocks and if great profit sell at least half and re deploy in a new mining stock (to reduce your risk and to pick a new winner). You have to be 2 steps ahead of the market, you must go through your investment plan in your mind many times and of course write it down to not forget it, or even update and adapt against changes in the market. Unfortunately most of the people will not have or follow an investment plan and instead listen to everyday noise and end up being thrown away by the furious golden bull. The following years will be fantastic!
    Every morning you will wake up with a smile and remembering yesterday as ” damn, what a beautiful day it was in the golden mining stock stratosphere”!

      Jul 18, 2019 18:20 PM

      Yes, this phase 2 is going to smoke what we had last decade. All the mining ETFs were rolled out in anticipation of this bull market. By launching them at/near the highs, big/smart money had something to trade from the short side for many years to allow them to get their cost basis to zero or better. Obviously there were also other reasons for the new ETFs and their timing.

        Jul 18, 2019 18:35 PM

        Guys, I’m getting jazzed about the medium to long term picture for this Phase 2.

        Ever Upward!

          Jul 18, 2019 18:36 PM

          Ex, not many realize how poor the last bull market was for the miners for almost 6 years of its 9 year run vs gold. Did you know that the HUI, GDM, XAU, etc., topped in January 2004 when priced in gold? In dollars, they topped almost 6 years later! The HUI did do very well in the 3 years that ended with that 2004 top, but the XAU did relatively miserably. In fact, it performed far better vs gold in half of 2016 (154%) than in those three years that ended in Jan. 2004 (85%).
          What we have now is the beginning of a pm miners bull market of a lifetime. Technically/fundamentally, the writing is on the wall; the miners are going to completely blow gold away.
          GDM vs Gold:

            Jul 19, 2019 19:10 AM

            Matthew, that’s interesting about the 2004 top if factoring in their pricing in Gold (not dollars), and how strong the first leg of the baby bull in 2016 was.

            Looking forward to strong next chapter of the Bull run for a few years to come.

            Jul 19, 2019 19:01 AM

            Wait! It gets better. Did you know that the 2004 highs mentioned above failed to exceed the highs of 1996? In fact, XAU:Gold still needed to rise another 40% just match its high of 8 years previous. HUI:Gold got MUCH closer and that gave one huge negative divergence warning.
            So, when you strip away the USD noise, what we really had in the miners was a big secular bear market that lasted about 20 years!

            Excelsior!!! πŸ‘ŠπŸ‘΄

            Jul 19, 2019 19:42 PM

            Thanks Matthew. I just now got back around to reading this and looking at the chart.

            After a 20 year secular bear…..the seeds of the next bull were born. πŸ™‚


          Jul 18, 2019 18:49 PM

          Priced in gold, GDM is up 75% since bottoming 3.5 years ago yet is still well below the crash low of 2008 and further below the secular bear market low of 2000. The 2016 high happened to be roughly the same as the 2000 low. From here, GDM needs to rise 263% vs gold just to match its 2004 high. It will take many years, but it is eventually going well beyond that 15 year old high.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:38 AM

    +1 Thanks for your thoughts Blue. Taking partial profits on one high flyer and putting it into another can really multiply returns. Personally, I have been sitting tight long enough, but I understand and appreciate your point. Sitting tight probably works best (especially from a psychological standpoint probably works best for mid to larger producing miners or royalty companies in my opinion.

      Jul 18, 2019 18:51 AM

      Charles, I like having two investment portfolios, core pick right sit tight-portfolio and a trading portfolio where you take some profit once in a while.

      This guy has some good points about finding and keeping big winners.

        Jul 18, 2019 18:54 PM

        Good thoughts blue on having both “sit-tight” equities, and swing-trading equities.

        I deploy both approaches as well, and have a mix of slow and steady growth over time (like royalties and streamers, and mid-tier producers), and swing-trade equities like the smaller producers with leverage, development plays in the golden runway into production, and exploration drill plays with a current program underway.

        I also decided to lighten up a bit today on a few of the Silver & Gold miners that have run the furthest the fastest, and rebalance it into a few of the ones growing but not surging yet.

          Jul 18, 2019 18:11 PM

          Those that bought up some of the Silver Producers during tax loss selling, as the calendar flipped from 2018 to 2019, are being rewarded handsomely.

          #Chart of Silver Producers Year-To-Date in 2019:


            Jul 18, 2019 18:19 PM

            Darn. My commas, were messed up in Stockcharts, and that didn’t post correctly, as Impact and Fortuna weren’t on that chart.

            >> Here is a better #Chart of Silver Producers Year-To-Date in 2019:



            Jul 19, 2019 19:10 AM

            Darren Blasutti of (USAS) (USA) Americas Silver at the recent 121 Mining Investment Conference in London


            Jul 19, 2019 19:13 AM

            Americas Silver Corporation Announces $10M Investment By Eric Sprott

            Americas Silver Corporation (TSX:USA) (NYSE:USAS) (“Americas Silver” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that Eric Sprott has agreed to purchase 3,955,454 common shares of the Company at a price of CDN$3.30 per share, for a total investment of approximately US$10 million in a non-brokered private placement the (“Private Placement”).

            Jul 19, 2019 19:16 AM

            A nice investment in USAS by Sprott. Thanks for the heads up.

            Jul 19, 2019 19:54 AM

            In addition they get to keep San Felipe, instead of selling it to Premier gold mines. That’s awesome and this is the better way to approach it. I didn’t understand why they bought that if they were just going to turn around and unload it on the cheap.

          Jul 18, 2019 18:23 PM

          Ex, you sound like an expertπŸ˜€
          Keep’em popping, those forgotten, most hated and barely alive-junior miners. I looove them right now!

            Jul 18, 2019 18:17 PM

            Ha! Thanks Blue. Yes, gotta love the hated and barely-alive Jr miners when the sector rebounds and they get filled with new life (and new bids). πŸ™‚

            Here a list of some of the Silver Developers over the last 3 months:


            Jul 18, 2019 18:23 PM

            Returns for those Silver Developers over the last 3 months:

            BCM – up 73.08%
            AXR – up 57.25%
            SIL.V – up 37.64%
            DEF – up 37.05%
            ABRA – up 33.33%
            MSV – up 25.93%
            MAG – up 23.72%
            SBR – up 22.22%
            KTN – up 21.74%
            SVB – up 21.74%
            SSV – up 14.29%
            AUN – down -42.50%

            Jul 18, 2019 18:27 PM

            While those are nice returns in a short time period, those Silver developers have so much further to run still, and if they announce going into production or getting acquired it will just be further fuel on the fire.

            Jul 18, 2019 18:25 PM

            Here’s an additional #Chart of 12 more #Silver #Developers & #Explorers over the last 3 months.

            It’s worth noting that some of the smaller discovery plays haven’t received as much of a bid as the larger development stage companies or producers have in this sector thus far in the move.



        Jul 18, 2019 18:29 PM

        Here is a #Chart of the same group of Silver Producers returns for the last 3 months:

        $EXN.TO – up 98.55%
        $SCZ.V – up 81.82%
        $USA – up 69.64%
        $FR.TO – up 59.31%
        $CDE – up 37.23%
        $SVM – up 34.38%
        $ASM – up 30.42%
        $IPT.V – up 29.31%
        $FSM – up 23.28%
        $PAAS – up 22.83%
        $HOC.L – up 14.20%
        $EXK – up 8..64%

          Jul 18, 2019 18:32 PM

          Not too shabby for a bunch of Silver wingnut investors…. πŸ˜‰

    Jul 18, 2019 18:26 PM

    Thanks for the link. I will have to review it later, but will do. I have my large cap miners held in my IRA that I tend to invest it and forget it. I only review it once in a while and with the mindset that I don’t want to put that retirement money in as much risk. My taxable account has mostly high flyers that I use more of a trading account. Not the best individual account diversification strategy, but it works for me. In my high flyers account I tend to trim back when a concentration / percent of total portfolio gets to high in a certain asset. I also tend not to use stops in this account as the volitile nature of these high flyers tend to get you stopped out prematurely in my opinion although it does take a bit more sell disapline which is hard to develop and maintain due to personal bullish bias. Trimming positions that are concentrated relieves me of some of my bias as it is more of an automatic sell even if I believe the stock will go higher. I generally never fully sell a position unless there is a fundamental change with the company or management or the general sector/market is correcting significantly. I also use some more general hedges from time to time manage risk. To me, risk management is more important that getting more juice, but that is me. Regardless that is a lot of money to be made, but you have got to be in it to win it! Cheers!

      Jul 18, 2019 18:45 PM

      It seems that you have an investment strategy including discipline and good risk management. We are in it and now we let the big bull do the heavy lifting, cheers and good luck!

      Jul 18, 2019 18:01 PM

      Great approach to investing Charles, and I do the same thing with holding some larger stocks longer term, and trading the more active one, and reducing when they grow to be more a percentage allocation in my trading account. I like trading around positioned by purchasing in several tranches, and then fading the exits.

      There are times where I’ll do an “all-in” purchase, and then “all-out” swing trade for a fast buck, but generally I average in, and then fade on the way up, and then start buying back in during pullbacks to start the process over. There are some stocks I’ve traded a dozens of times over the years adding & subtracting, all while keeping a core position in place.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:31 PM

    On the night before SILJ brokeout:
    On July 15, 2019 at 10:46 pm,
    Matthew says:
    Next stop for SILJ is $10+

    …and here we are:

      Jul 18, 2019 18:55 PM

      On the night before SILJ brokeout: Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse….

        Jul 18, 2019 18:22 PM

        But I was! 🐭

          Jul 18, 2019 18:30 PM

          Haha! So was I. It was a thrilling sight to behold.

          Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night!

            Jul 18, 2019 18:44 PM


    Jul 18, 2019 18:32 PM
    Jul 18, 2019 18:37 PM

    Back when gold became legal to own under Gerald Ford gold tumbled from 200 down to 100, so I bought some. After doubling my money I sold, pleased with myself, only then to watch gold soar to 850 under the pathetic fool Jimmy Carter. I won’t make that mistake this time when gold doubles from 1050 to 2100. I’m holding on for 5K or 10K gold.

      Jul 18, 2019 18:47 PM

      Thanks for sharing Bonzo. You have been in this sector longer than me so I appreciate the history lesson. I was still a kid during the Carter era, but do remember the long lines at the gas station! I am not really a stacker of the metal although I do own a little. Mostly like the stocks given the leverage. I know you hold NSRPF. I keep waiting for the blast off. It seems like we are getting close. At least I hope so.

      Jul 18, 2019 18:52 PM

      experience is the key word to succeed, I have done a lot of mistakes during the dot com bubble and the last part of the gold bull 2009-2011. Now I have learned my lesson and will patiently wait for the golden bull to do all the work to the end of the bull market

      Jul 18, 2019 18:25 PM

      BB; IMBBY breaking higher but I wouldn’t get too excited yet. Watch the monthly chart.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:04 PM

    USS Boxer takes out Iranian drone.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:19 PM

    I don’t see any resistance until 1500. Is that our next stop on this gold bull train? (Matthew)

      Jul 18, 2019 18:28 PM

      Once Gold goes topside of 1488, strap in and buckle up. Air pocket to 1700-1750 zone.

        Jul 18, 2019 18:06 PM

        You may be right mineralsrmoney however I think if gold is to pierce $1488 it will be a more gradual climb towards $1700. Nevertheless, another good day for gold and silver. Lets see if they can hold onto these latest gains as the week closes out.

      Jul 18, 2019 18:27 PM

      Snowy, there’s not much resistance left at any price but what little there is occurs mostly between $1600 and almost $1800. The total of trading between $1400 and $1600 happened in 2011 and 2013 and there wasn’t much of it. So a move to $1600 or more could happen quickly if we finish this week on a strong note.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:25 PM

    $13.4T in negative yielding debt. $600B is Corporate (mainly Europe) negative yielding debt.

    We are now in the very early stage of secular Phase III bull for precious metals. It will be a very powerful phase and will outperform for years. My measured move for Gold remains 1700-1750 (initial and it will happen much quicker than many anticipate) followed by all-time highs. Silver has more work to do but, is now starting to play catch-up. Enjoy the ride!

    Jul 18, 2019 18:41 PM

    1444…………looking good……

      Jul 18, 2019 18:36 PM

      $1452.90……Gold high of the day……..looking real good……

        Jul 18, 2019 18:56 PM


          Jul 19, 2019 19:53 AM

          +2. Still feel a little cautious though!

    Jul 18, 2019 18:40 PM

    Webb covers the intrigues….

      Jul 18, 2019 18:46 PM

      Are you now hooked on Webb…..

        Jul 18, 2019 18:48 PM

        I am not sure anyone else is following Webb……I think I was the first to mention him…

    Jul 18, 2019 18:44 PM
    Jul 18, 2019 18:04 PM

    Dang Jerry…Rickets on Jay Taylor, Ron Paul’s Liberty Report and Macro Voices…he’s everywhere…bet he will be on USA Watchdog very soon….

      Jul 19, 2019 19:06 AM

      thanks for the alert……I was doing other research last night….was away from the Ker

        Jul 19, 2019 19:19 AM

        Kirby brought up some great points again…….
        Missing $21 Trillion
        Fasbe 56…US Govt accounting FRAUD
        German and Chinese military joint action..

        Jul 19, 2019 19:57 AM

        I was doing other research last night….

        What were you researching?

    Jul 18, 2019 18:05 PM



        Jul 18, 2019 18:26 PM
          Jul 18, 2019 18:45 PM

          Hah! That went up after the Kirby interview.

          Yup, he’s making the rounds…book time…I will listen to this tomorrow as it is too late now…thanks…the Towsend podcast (macrovoices) was very good and you should probably have a listen to that.

            Jul 19, 2019 19:08 AM

            Fasbe 56…govt accounting FRAUD……should be a TOPIC…..everyone here should get a handle on……

            Jul 19, 2019 19:10 AM

            Fitts now saying…….the number is more like $50 TRILLION…..

            Jul 19, 2019 19:03 AM

            Tough time ahead and before this is all said and done many will be eating Iguana…

            Jul 19, 2019 19:11 AM

            Iguana….or ugly I ain’t gonna……eat that chicken flavored (fill in the blank)

            Jul 19, 2019 19:14 AM

            Btw……It’s TGIF…..and time to let Owl out of the cage……….

          Jul 19, 2019 19:09 AM

          Dang Rickets…he’s not going to give away the ansser. πŸ™‚ Gotta get the book and read chapter 6…I’m getting real familiar with his kitchen.

            Jul 19, 2019 19:14 AM

            Answer!!! Dang iPad…and it’s Rickards, not Rickets…although at the rate I’m going it might as well be rickets! πŸ™‚

    Jul 18, 2019 18:28 PM

    I will be surprised if SILJ does not take out speed line and moving average resistance tomorrow…

    Jul 18, 2019 18:30 PM

    GLD is at steep fork resistance that I think will be overcome tomorrow…

    Jul 18, 2019 18:25 PM

    This will be the 8th straight week higher for the HUI vs GLD (a first for the ratio) and it looks fantastic.

    Jul 18, 2019 18:00 PM

    GDX vs SPY looks phenomenal and is up 57% since last September…

    Jul 18, 2019 18:04 PM
    Jul 18, 2019 18:06 PM
    Jul 18, 2019 18:08 PM

    This new article at 321gold goes well with a chart I’ve been watching:

    Jul 18, 2019 18:36 PM

    This monthly silver chart and pitchfork shows why a monthly close above $16 will be a big deal:

      Jul 19, 2019 19:56 AM

      I got silver-goosebumps!!!
      Where is the summer doldrums???
      Best golden summer ever, and I will begin my 4 weeks summer vacation today, so I’ll bee following the golden bull market 24/7 , hahaha

        Jul 19, 2019 19:05 AM

        Does anyone else think we could be on the brink of witnessing a true paradigm shift in the global financial system? Ie: reserve currency collapse/reset. The overriding sense of major trouble just continues to persist like a splinter underneath the skin…

          Jul 19, 2019 19:44 AM

          Key,….nobody knows anything…….mostly just reacting…..and take advantage of what one knows at the time…..How can anyone out think a corrupt mind……..jmo

        Jul 19, 2019 19:20 AM

        I agree blue that it is fantastic the Gold broke out starting at the end of May (when most sell and go away) and charging higher in both June and July and holding onto the gains. It would have been worse to blip up and then sink right back down a day or two later.

        This ability for Gold to hold onto the gains (taking out 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 highs) really validated that the move higher has some teeth. Sure, it will eventually correct and back and fill, but the larger trend for the medium to longer term is the upward climb to get back up to where things went off the rails in 2013.

          Jul 19, 2019 19:48 AM

          The funny thing is, a lot of people almost certainly DID “sell in May and go away” since the low for the miners happened at the very end of the month.

            Jul 19, 2019 19:08 AM

            True. There had to be selling volume to create that low in May for sure.

            Personally, I trimmed a few names back in April to get in front of that, and added back to a few in early June when it looked like the metal as we’re getting peppier. Most of that was just trading around core positions.

            My large buying is typically in December, during tax-loss selling, and also in Late July or early August, but I trade all year long. This year I didn’t sell as hard as I normally do in April and May, because most technicians I respect were in agreement this was supposed to be the year Gold took out the 2016 high, and clearly it did.

            I am surprised by the strength and gold this summer though, but much of it is likely short-covering rallies, and buyers coming in that don’t like the economic turmoil.

            Jul 19, 2019 19:10 AM

            The last two months have been the most fun I’ve had in the p.m. markets since 2016.

    Jul 19, 2019 19:33 AM

    Fork and moving average resistance is having its way with silver this morning. Let’s see if it lasts…