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Gab @TraderGab

“#gold Let’s see IF the low is in …”

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5 OTHER CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT THE US MARKETS TOPPING AND THE GOLD AND SILVER BULL MARKET

Technical Traders – September 27, 2019

https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/recorded-conversation-with-analyst-on-gold-silver-crude-oil/

Doc – when are you projecting the next move higher to be in Gold or Silver – more year end, or further out into Q1 of 2020?

In specific to Bubba Horwitz’s Silver move above the recent peak at $19.65, when do you feel the setup for the next impulse leg higher above that to break above the $20 level is more likely?

Ex, Doc has mentioned falling into November and this is an obvious assumption if you look at the weekly and shorter term charts in isolation and ignore the character of the move that began in May. It’s similar to Doc calling for 1220 gold in December right after gold spent months taking back the 600 week MA (in the 1240s at the time). Aside from being wrong, the problem with that call is that Doc did not consider such a move to be damaging to the longer term prospects for gold.

The bottom COULD very well come later as Doc and so many other think, but it would be inconsistent with the action so far and therefore not a very bullish development. So, based on the bullishness so far, Bubba is reading things the way someone with so much experience ought to, right or wrong (we’re talking odds here). Bubba is right that surprises are usually to the upside in a bull market and, in addition to the action since May, the big picture charts are supportive of his view as are some of the years in which the sector rallied right through the summer. Looking at the weekly gold miner index charts of ’03 and ’05 in particular, lows were achieved on Sept. 29 and Oct. 17, respectively.

Finally, for Doc to suggest that Sprott needs a new TA guy is a little rich considering Doc’s record. Not even the best guys are close to always being right and missing a call here would hardly be reason for dismissal.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p08253962601&a=646023230

May, 20, 2019:
“This year might not get exciting, actually Doc thinks it will be pretty boring for the metals…”
http://www.kereport.com/2019/05/20/time-frames-for-gold-silver-and-gold-stocks-to-run-higher/

Thanks Matthew – I agree that Bubba is a sharp technician and yes, in a bull, surprises are more to the upside than downside.

I’m actually surprised at how quickly the sentiment has turned against Gold, Silver, and the miners, on many forums, in the miners selling off hard the last 2 weeks, and this is cooling off the overbought chart indicators.

I’m fine with a bottoming process in October or November or even year-end tax loss selling. It matters little to me, since most of my positions are above water and have had a great year, and the laggards will start playing catchup on the next move higher into 2020.

I’m fine adding a little to my favorite positions some during the pullbacks, and waiting for the medium to longer term trend higher in the PMs to play out.

Cheers!

Before the correction began, I said that the coming correction would be measured in weeks, not months (2 or more), and I still believe that even though the last three days didn’t help me any.

And at the last low?…
On May 17, 2019 at 1:13 pm,
Matthew says:
GDX finished the week up 2.84% vs GLD and gained .78% today even though GLD lost .72%.
That’s a good sign that lines up with gold bottoming in the days ahead (if it hasn’t already).
—
You can find May 17th here:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p09791061330&a=577249153

Cheers, Ex 🍻

Cheers and weekend beers!!

Ex, to answer your question, I’ll respond with what I’ve been saying for months —I believe the real move begins at the end of the year or 2020. It’s pretty obvious in this last move in the stocks that the vast majority did not break out of their monthly BBs so it really was just another overdue move higher in an ongoing bear market for the stocks. The encouraging news is the breakout of gold out of its’ long U shaped move sideways. It appears now that the beginning of the right arm to the U has begun but as I’ve said many times in the past this well be a work in progress and not a sudden shot to the moon. As it plays out over Oct./Nov. I should have a better idea of when i think pricing takes out the high in August. My gut tells me it won’t be this year but possibly in the first quarter of 2020. Oct/Nov should be pretty instructive on that matter. By the way, thanks for all your great information about the various stocks you talk about. You probably don’t realize how it has helped me and others in positioning ourselves in some of these stocks.

Thanks for the response back Doc. Yes it will be interesting to see how things play out in Oct/Nov for the year-end set up, but I agree that 2020 looks very constructive for Gold & Silver heading much higher as the right side of the U continues to round up.

Yes, for the last 5 years in a row the 1st quarter has seen nice moves higher in the PMs and miners, so no guarantees we’ll see the same thing, but so far the trend has been your friend.

Thanks for kind words about the info shared reviewing miners. That is a bigger passion for me that the macro metals pricing anyway, and I enjoy the leverage that companies that explore, develop, or produce the Precious Metals have to the underlying commodity prices.

Ever Upward!

Mature Topping Pattern In Place In Junior Gold Miners

by @Goldfinger on 26 Sep 2019

“I share this chart as food for thought and not as a prediction that GDXJ will fall to $30 in October. It could happen, but we could also get a rally to new highs (above $43) that could make this whole “topping pattern” morph into a continuation pattern.”

https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/mature-topping-pattern-in-place-in-junior-gold-miners

Wolfster – that was interesting. In addition to Quebec, he brought up California and Oregon, where they don’t have properties either, but Darren was just mentioninging jurisdictions they thought were good. It does make me wonder if he has been looking at (BHS) Bayhorse Silver operating in Oregon.

_________________________________________________________________________

Darren Blasutti [00:16:34] – “So listen we got to in Idaho where all over Idaho we actually like parts of California. You know we may be a mining permit Grassy Mountain may be permitted in Oregon which you know 10 years ago we never would thought right. So. So I think the United States a great jurisdiction. There’s places like Quebec. And you know parts of Canada that are very good. Mexico is a great place to do mining but there’s other challenges there of course right. You got to get area specific and understand where you are. So we’ve got focus on I think our focus right now is Mexico Nevada Idaho and Quebec. So very good jurisdictions with good growth. And you know what. Trading at point three times NAV. You know what we could call that’s a discount but I’d rather buy something at point three times anybody in Nevada than by seven point or eight times in Brazil any day. “

Here’s the info on the Grassy Mountain in Oregon that Darren specifically mentioned and it belongs to (PZG) Paramount Gold. It is interesting that their other Sleeper Gold project is in Nevada. It may be worth watching PZG as a takeover candidate by USAS.
________________________________________________________________

Gold mine in Oregon “worth building”

Valentina Ruiz Leotaud | May 27, 2018

https://www.mining.com/gold-mine-oregon-worth-building/

As for the line:

“So we’ve got focus on I think our focus right now is Mexico Nevada Idaho and Quebec. So very good jurisdictions with good growth.”

You raise a great point. Which Quebec project or company are they looking at?

To your point, they don’t have any projects in Quebec at this point.

Jamie Keech: The Gold Price Rise is Real, and Stocks Will Catch Up

Sep 24, 2019 – Investing News Network

“The gold price has ticked up in 2019, particularly in recent months, but it hasn’t been the same story for all gold stocks, particularly early stage companies.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cxdzNr_vb2E

Doug Groh: Gold Has Had a Big Move, Now it Needs to Stabilize

Investing News Network – Sep 19, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-Jn3I8fNzg

Is This The Real Driver Of Gold’s Recent Weakness?

09/29/2019

Well known gold and silver analyst Andy Hoffman previously suggested the answer could be much simpler than we have been led to believe.

There’s no reason… there’s not even a propaganda meme of why [gold has been dumped]… there isn’t even a such thing as negative news for precious metals anymore…

The fact is, [like the last few years, when prices collapsed], China is closed for the week.

One glance at the last few years gold price action suggests he may well be correct…

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/real-driver-golds-recent-weakness

Silvercrest (SIL) should also be mentioned as a true discovery in the prior incarnation, and their present company.

Having said that, where in the world are all the other new Greenfields exploration success stories after all these years and 100’s of Millions of dollars spent looking for new discoveries?

Most of the great development stage companies were found years ago and have just been defining the limits of their projects, or the “new’ discoveries have been mostly around previous mines and previous known projects.

It would be nice to see a few real bonanza grade discoveries in the sector that gets folks so interested that it finally brings in more generalist investors.

Let’s hope the next big discoveries come from Auryn, Irving, Miramont,EXK, AG,ETHOF,MUX,OCANF,PVG,USAS, NEM, and Novo.

Bonzo Barzini – You just made an excellent point.

Many investors forget that Producers can still go out and make significant new discoveries. It is easy to get fixated on the tiny Jr Explorers for a new discovery, but sometimes it is the big boys that find the needle in the haystack.

My thoughts were more along the lines of new greenfields discoveries in untapped areas, but sometimes those are buried within larger mining companies project portfolios and when they go poking around, their experienced teams often do hit paydirt.

Ever Upward!

Yes, Ex, they say the best place to find a gold mine is next to a gold mine. And NEM and GOLD have millions of acres around their mines. And they will add tens of millions of oz of gold to their reserves when they are figured at higher gold prices. And NEM is the only gold miner in the S&P 500 and in the coming bull market the funds will have to buy NEM.

Yes the old adage of where to find a gold mine….. next to an existing gold mine is still very appropriate. With modern exploration methods using VTEM surveys and new science with geo chem analysis, and better logging and computer modeling tools, there are still plenty of untapped deposits in the shadow of known deposits or mines.

Good point NEM being the only gold miner in the S&P 500 (but remember that Rob McEwen wants to change that and get MUX added as a key milestone). 🙂

Longer than 20 years

Ditto ……on the get the >>>>>TRENDS IN MOTION ALREADY………

Jeff Swinoga: Wait for It — More Gold M&A is Coming

Sep 25, 2019 – Investing News Network

“Gold market participants have been waiting for a wave of consolidation to hit the space since Barrick Gold and Randgold Resources announced plans to merge a year ago. ”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ke8LVBKY0Ac

Adrian Day: We Haven’t Seen the End of Gold M&A

Investing News Network – Sep 20, 2019

“Mergers and acquisitions in the gold space are far from over, says Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management in this video.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBGOtR6Xcdc

SouthKorea, SaudiArabia to cooperate on SMART deployment

20 September 2019 #Nuclear #Uranium

“South Korea and Saudi Arabia have agreed to collaborate on the commercialisation of the Korean-designed SMART small modular reactor. Under the agreement, they will work together to license and construct the first such unit in Saudi Arabia.”

http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Korea,-Saudi-Arabia-to-cooperate-on-SMART-deployme

Ex, what do you think of WRN. They had some nice intercepts recently I plan on adding to my position on this pull back.

I’ve been following WRN from the sidelines for some time as I have some interest in other companies in the Yukon like AXU, MMG, and FWZ, so when there are newletter writers going up there on site visits they often stop by Western Copper and Gold on the same trip. I’ve read good reviews and haven’t heard many point out any glaring issues.

Their Copper and Gold reserves are very healthy (which they need to be if a project is going to work in a more remote area like the Yukon), and it appears to be a well run company.

Yes, I saw the recent drill hits with 55 g/t gold over 3 meters which is very solid, and gave their stock nice boost in the last few trading sessions. Also from a longer term perspective it looks like their chart bottomed at the end of last year, and is starting the slow climb higher.

WRN looks like a good company and good chart set up to me, and it is one I’ve had on the short list as a developer that is going to make it’s run into production over the next 1-2 years, or get acquired by a larger Copper or Gold company to augment their pipelines.

May it be a prosperous position for you, and I may join you in adding it to my portfolio when I divest a few other positions over time.

Doc – I just went over and checked out the WRN recent presentation and newsflow and hadn’t noticed their recent acquisition of the Cariboo Rose project (with the Ana zone as a primary target) which is in between their Casino project and adjacent to Goldcorp’s Coffee project (which used to belong to Kaminak). That introduces even more potential upside as a secondary deposit that could feed their leach pads and mill at Casino, and if it proves out will be a nice upside project for them to bring into the fold.

After years of being in the boring “orphan phase” of a development project [they did their Feasibility study back in 2013 for goodness sakes], it looks like their next 2-3 years are going to be that “Golden Runway” phase of a developer, and are finally set on a path of going into production.

Another thing of note is that the Gold, Copper, and Silver prices are finally back to the assumptions they made in their Feasibility Study in 2013, and so their NPV and NAV figures are finally congruent with the pricing backdrop in the market. I’m sure that this is not lost on investors or larger companies that have reviewed their project in the past when metals prices were below their assumptions. Basically, they are back in the money again.

Overall very impressive reserves, a nice balance of Gold and Copper, a realistic plan for production, Goldcorp as neighbors, and a high likelihood of being taken over by one of the big boys.

I also just noticed on another map that Agnico Eagle and Kinross have lands adjacent to Western Copper and Gold on the other side, and they’d be the more likely suitors, since Goldcorp is going to be busy with Coffee for the forseeable future.

Their projected IRR is 28% over 2.3 years which is good, but not great on a Gold project, but very good on a Copper project, so it balances out to a solid plan.

It definitely moved up the batting order on my Copper watchlist after reviewing it a bit closer today, so thanks for bringing it up in discussion. Cheers!

2 last final considerations is that I notice Osisko Gold Royalties holds a 2.75% Net Smelter Royalty on their project which does eat into their margins, but on the plus side their Copper price assumptions are $2.55 and if Copper got up to $3 or north of that then it would be a large mulitplier effect. I don’t expect that in the near future with all the trade wars, but in 2-3 years when they go into production, I’d expect a higher Copper price so that is another kicker they’d have in that kind of environment.

Bitcoins fall from $19,000 down to $3,000 would be like Gold having fell from $1900 to $300. Now Bitcoin bounced to $12000 and had pulled back to $7800. Again that would be like Gold having gone from $1900 to $300 up to $1200 and down to $780.

It is far more volatile and far less proven than Gold at this point, and Central Banks are still buying huge quantities of Gold, so they see longer term value in the currency of last resort – Precious Metals.

That’s a wise professor; I can see why he was a favorite of yours.
Of course I agree with you and Pierre.

Ditto on Harvard trained……….

All is WELL….can we say……stick it in your ear to JPM……….lol

ditto……..it does suck….but, we will be OK………..